Power LCAT - United States Association for Energy Economics

Report
Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool
(Power LCAT)
Dr. Thomas E. Drennen, Sandia National Laboratories
Joel S. Andruski and Ryan Williams
Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Timothy J. Skone, P.E. and Justin M. Adder
Office of Strategic Energy Analysis and Planning, NETL
32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
Anchorage, Alaska
July 28 – 31, 2013
SAND2013-5876C
Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly
owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security
Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
Introduction
•
•
•
•
•
1
The Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT) is a Department of Energy-funded collaboration
between the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL).
This high-level, dynamic model calculates production costs and tracks environmental performance—
providing users with the total amount of greenhouse gases created at each of five stages of the
technology’s life—for a range of electricity generation technologies.
Policy makers, students, and stakeholders can use this tool to consider the entire life cycle of an energy
technology, from raw materials acquisition to final product transport.
This intuitive tool includes four main sections:
– The “Production Analysis” section calculates the cost of electricity (in $/kWh) for each option and
allows users to explore key sensitivities.
– The “Environmental Performance” section estimates aggregate greenhouse gas and non-greenhouse
gas emissions, as well as water usage at each stage in the life cycle of electricity production.
– The “Costs vs. Emissions” section explores the tradeoffs between costs (in $/kWh) and greenhouse
gas emissions (in kg CO2 equivalent/MWh).
– The “Sensitivity Analysis” section of Power LCAT allows variation of several assumptions—such as
capital costs, operations and fuel costs, interest rates, efficiency, and capacity factors—
simultaneously while providing graphical representation of the result.
Power LCAT provides users with a clear understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs
associated with various electricity production options.
Power LCAT Technologies
•
The technology options are based on detailed life cycle analysis reports conducted by NETL and include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The goal of the NETL studies are to compare existing and future technology options using a life cycle
analysis (LCA) which include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
2
Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC),
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC),
Supercritical Pulverized Coal (SCPC),
Existing Pulverized Coal (EXPC),
Existing (EXNUC) and new Nuclear (Gen III Plus), and
Onshore Wind (with and without backup power).
Raw Material Acquisition
Raw Material Transport
Energy Conversion Facility
Product Transport
End Use
All of the fossil fuel technologies also include an option for including carbon capture and sequestration
technologies (CCS).
Production Analysis
This section calculates the cost of electricity (in $/kWh) for each option and allows users to explore
key sensitivities. Color-coded cost components allow for quick understanding of key sensitivities.
Production Analysis
Graph
Costs vs Emissions
Master Sheet
0.1044
0.0601
0.1028
0.0652
0.0922
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
IGCC 1
IGCC
IGCC CCS
2
1

SCPC
NGCC
SCPC 3
1

EXPC
USCPC

SCPC CCS
4
1
CA PITA L COST
FIXED O&M
6,000
150
5,000
120
4,000
3,000
90
2,000
1,000
30
0
2,446.56 $/kW
60
0
79.0067 $/kW

GEN III+ Nuclear
With CCS
3
Sensitivity Analysis
Table
0.0790
0.2
COE
LCOE($/kWh)
$/kWh
Environmental Performance
NGCC 1
5
EXNUC

WIND
NGCC CCS
6
1

USER DEFINED
Without CCS
Technical
Finance
Capacity Factor
80 %
Transmission Loss
7%
Plant Life
VA RIA BLE O&M
FUEL COST
(COA L)
0.020
10
30 yrs
0.015
8
Heat Rate
8,756 Btu/kWh
0.010
CO2 Capture
0%
0.005
2
0.000
0
0.0073 $/kWh
6
4
1.51 $/MMBtu
Production Analysis
At current natural gas prices ($3.68/MMBtu; 7/10/13), NGCC plants are the least cost option.
Uncertainty bars show the possible variation based on user-defined uncertainties.
4
Production Analysis
The Financial Assumptions Screen allows user to vary financial parameters, including debt/equity
financing rates, federal and state taxes, depreciation, construction time, CO2 taxes, and plant life.
5
Production Analysis
This example illustrates the effect of CO2 taxes on the relative economics. A $55/tCO2 tax makes
SCPC with CCS cost competitive with SCPC without CCS.
6
Environmental Performance
This section tracks the life cycle emissions of key greenhouse gases (GHG), other pollutants, and
water withdrawals and consumption.
Production Analysis
Environmental Performance
LC Greenhouse Gases
GHG
GHG
LCOE
(units
(kg of
$/kWh
CO2e/MWh)
CO2e/MWh)
GHG - Life Cycle A nalysis in
3,000
kg CO2e/MWh
930.91
Costs vs Emissions
Other LC Environmental Factors
Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases
Master Sheet

942.41
201.41
499.32
221.05
175.3
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
17 IGCC
476
1 935
1
1394
IGCC
2312
CCS
32771 3230
2
3689
4 SCPC
4148
3
5 5066 5525
SCPC
6 5984
CCS
4 6443
#76902NGCC
7361#8
5
7820
8279
8738
#9NGCC
9197
CCS
6
#10
2 1853
1

1 4607
1

1

1 9656
Life Cycle Analysis Stages
Carbon Equivalent Benchmark
No CO2e Benchmark
Display CO2e Benchmark
Raw Material A cquisition
Raw Material Transport
Energy Conversion Facility
Product Transport
Life Cycle A nalysis Total
Carbon Equivalent Benchmark
1,000 kg CO2e/MWh
2,205 lb CO2e/MWh
GHG (k g CO
2e /MW h)
$/kWh
7
Sensitivity Analysis

IGCC

IGCC CCS

SCPC

Global Warming Potential Assumptions
2001 IPCC GWP
2001 IPCC GWP
2001 IPCC GWP
2007 IPCC GWP
2007 IPCC GWP
2007 IPCC GWP
SCPC CCS

20-Yr Time Horizon
100-Yr Time Horizon
500-Yr Time Horizon
20-Yr Time Horizon
100-Yr Time Horizon
500-Yr Time Horizon
NGCC

NGCC CCS
Carbon Dioxide
857.93
115.12
871.50
122.56
418.35
80.98
Nitrous Oxidide
0.029
0.040
0.027
0.038
0.211
0.249
Methane
69.75
83.05
67.69
95.25
77.49
90.79
Sulfur Hexafluoride
3.20
3.20
3.20
3.20
3.27
3.27
Total
(kg CO2e/MWh)
Total
kg CO2e/MWh

930.91
201.41
942.41
221.05
499.32
175.30

Environmental Performance
Along with GHG emissions, this section gives static emissions metrics for several other
environmental factors on a life cycle basis: Pb, Hg, NH3, CO, NOx, SOx, VOC, PM, and H2O
(withdrawals and consumption).
Production Analysis
Environmental Performance
Other LC Environmental Factors
LC Greenhouse Gases
Pb
Hg
NH3
Costs vs Emissions
CO
NOx
SOx
Sensitivity Analysis
Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases
VOC
PM
Water Withdrawal
Water Consumption
Lead (Pb) - Life Cycle A nalysis
Master Sheet
1.35e-5
5E-05
1.66e-5
4.54e-5
4.65e-5
4.87e-6
5.61e-6
kg/MWh
4E-05
3E-05
2E-05
IGCC
(k g/MW
h)
$/kWh
8


IGCC CCS
IGCC


IGCC CCS


SCPC



PT
NGCC CCS
Stage 1 - RMA
2.90e -7
3.50e -7
2.90e -7
4.00e -7
1.99e -6
2.33e -6
Stage 2 - RMT
1.70e -7
2.10e -7
9.20e -8
1.30e -7
1.65e -7
1.94e -7
Stage 3 - ECF
1.30e -5
1.60e -5
4.50e -5
4.60e -5
2.71e -6
3.09e -6
Stage 4 - PT
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total (kg/MWh)
1.35e-5
1.66e-5
4.54e-5
4.65e-5
4.87e-6
5.61e-6
T otal
EC F
R MT
NGCC CCS

NGCC
R MA
PT
T otal
EC F
NGCC

SCPC CCS
R MT
R MA
PT
SCPC CCS
T otal
EC F
R MT
R MA
PT
SCPC
T otal
EC F
R MT
R MA
PT
T otal
EC F
R MT
R MA
PT
T otal
EC F
R MT
0
R MA
1E-05


Environmental Performance
The Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases screen compares GHG emissions from the
plant (ECF stage) against a specified benchmark.
Production Analysis
Environmental Performance
Other LC Environmental Factors
LC Greenhouse Gases
GHG
GHG
LCOE
(units
(kg of
$/kWh
CO2e/MWh)
CO2e/MWh)
GHG - Energy Conversion Facility in
3,000
kg CO2e/MWh
654.6
Costs vs Emissions
Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases
Master Sheet

66.48
765.26
87.11
361.06
44.43
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
17 IGCC
476 935
1394
IGCC
2312
CCS
22771 3230
3689
SCPC
4148
3
SCPC5984
CCS
4 6443
7361 5
7820
8279
8738
NGCC
9197
CCS
6
1
 1853
1

1 46075066 5525
1
 6902NGCC
1

1 9656
Net vs Gross Generation Assumptions
Net Generation Basis
Gross Generation Basis
Carbon Equivalent Benchmark
No CO2e Benchmark
Display CO2e Benchmark
Carbon Equivalent Benchmark
454 kg CO2e/MWh
1,001 lb CO2e/MWh
GHG (k g CO
2e /MW h)
$/kWh
9
Sensitivity Analysis

IGCC

IGCC CCS

SCPC

Global Warming Potential Assumptions
2001 IPCC GWP
2001 IPCC GWP
2001 IPCC GWP
2007 IPCC GWP
2007 IPCC GWP
2007 IPCC GWP
SCPC CCS

20-Yr Time Horizon
100-Yr Time Horizon
500-Yr Time Horizon
20-Yr Time Horizon
100-Yr Time Horizon
500-Yr Time Horizon
NGCC

NGCC CCS
Carbon Dioxide
654.59
66.43
765.21
87.06
361.03
44.40
Nitrous Oxidide
0.005
0.009
0.008
0.011
0.004
0.006
Methane
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.02
Sulfur Hexafluoride
5.49e -3
5.52e -3
6.66e -3
5.84e -3
7.16e -3
7.90e -3
Total
(kg CO2e/MWh)
Total
kg CO2e/MWh

654.60
66.48
765.26
87.11
361.06
44.43

Costs vs Emissions
This section explores the tradeoffs between production costs ($/kWh) and Life Cycle (LC) GHG
performance (kg CO2e/MWh).
Production Analysis
Environmental Performance
Costs vs Emissions
Sensitivity Analysis
Master Sheet
Production Cost vs. LC GHG Performance
0.20
COE ($/kWh)
$/kWh
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
k gCO2e/MWh)
CO 2e /MW h
GHG (kg
IGCC
IGCC
CCS
SCPC
SCPC
CCS
NGCC
NGCC
CCS
EXPC
EXPC
CCS
GHG (kg CO2e/MWh)
930.91
201.41
942.41
221.05
499.32
175.30
1,097.33
444.54
0.00
0.00
COE ($/kWh)
0.0790
0.1044
0.0601
0.1028
0.0652
0.0922
0.0174
0.0578
0.0000
0.0000
Low Case Change
0.0649
0.0853
0.0502
0.0842
0.0618
0.0846
0.0172
0.0488
0.0000
0.0000
High Case Change
0.0934
0.1240
0.0706
0.1220
0.0709
0.1025
0.0184
0.0678
0.0000
0.0000
X
X
($/k W h)
Symbol
10

USCPC
USCPC
CCS
Gen III+
User
Defined
EXNUC
Wind
25.28
38.87
542.42
0.00
0.1078
0.0174
0.0811
0.0000
0.0838
0.0178
0.0776
0.0000
0.1305
0.0174
0.0844
0.0000
Costs vs Emissions
Adding carbon capture and storage (CCS) to an EXPC plant lowers the emissions, but increases the
costs. Costs and emissions are now comparable to a new NGCC plant without CCS.
Production Analysis
Environmental Performance
Costs vs Emissions
Sensitivity Analysis
Master Sheet
Production Cost vs. LC GHG Performance
0.20
COE ($/kWh)
$/kWh
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
k gCO2e/MWh)
CO 2e /MW h
GHG (kg
IGCC
IGCC
CCS
SCPC
SCPC
CCS
NGCC
NGCC
CCS
EXPC
EXPC
CCS
GHG (kg CO2e/MWh)
930.91
201.41
942.41
221.05
499.32
175.30
1,097.33
444.54
0.00
0.00
COE ($/kWh)
0.0790
0.1044
0.0601
0.1028
0.0652
0.0922
0.0174
0.0578
0.0000
0.0000
Low Case Change
0.0649
0.0853
0.0502
0.0842
0.0618
0.0846
0.0172
0.0488
0.0000
0.0000
High Case Change
0.0934
0.1240
0.0706
0.1220
0.0709
0.1025
0.0184
0.0678
0.0000
0.0000
X
X
($/k W h)
Symbol
11

USCPC
USCPC
CCS
Gen III+
User
Defined
EXNUC
Wind
25.28
38.87
542.42
0.00
0.1078
0.0174
0.0811
0.0000
0.0838
0.0178
0.0776
0.0000
0.1305
0.0174
0.0844
0.0000
Sensitivity Analysis
This section allows one to vary several assumptions simultaneously. Parameters are varied by cost
category. Tornado plot shows sensitivity by cost category. Table displays cumulative cost range.
12
Sensitivity Analysis
The Break-Even Analysis option makes it possible to find cost assumption points at which
technologies are cost competitive. For example, capital costs below $2,500 $/kW would allow a
new nuclear plant to compete economically with a new super critical coal plant (SCPC).
Production Analysis
COE Graph
COE Table
Environmental Performance
Fuel Price
Capacity Factor
Capital Cost
Costs vs Emissions
Interest Rate
Sensitivity Analysis
CO2e Tax
Construction Time
Master Sheet
0.2
COE ($/kWh)
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
00
625
1250
1875
2500
3125
3750
4375
5000
5625
6250
Capital Cost ($/kW)
Capital Cost ($/kW)
COE ($/kWh)
13
0
625
1,250
1,875
2,500
3,125
3,750
4,375
5,000
5,625
6,250
Ge n III Plus Nucle 
ar 0.0184
0.0289
0.0393
0.0498
0.0602
0.0706
0.0811
0.0915
0.1019
0.1124
0.1228
IGCC

0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
0.0790
SCPC

0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
0.0601
NGCC

0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
0.0652
W ind O nshore

0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
0.0811
EXNUC

0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
0.0174
Bre ak -Eve n Analysis 
Results
• For the default model assumptions, the results show that:
• For the fossil fuel technology options the supercritical pulverized coal
plant is the lowest cost option at 6.01 cents/kWh.
• The next lowest cost fossil fuel option is the natural gas combined
cycle plant (6.52 cents/kWh) and then the integrated gasification
combined cycle plant (7.90 cents/kWh). At current market prices, the
NGCC plant becomes the low cost option (4.28 cents/kWh for natural
gas price at 3.68 $/MMBtu).
• While existing nuclear plants produce power at very low cost (1.74
cents/kWh), power from a new Gen III+ nuclear plant would be more
expensive than the fossil-fuel alternatives (10.78 cents/kWh).
• Power LCAT currently includes one renewable technology option – a 2
MW wind turbine with a gas turbine simple cycle backup (8.11
cents/kWh) and without natural gas plant backup (4.91 cents/kWh).
14
Conclusion
• The Power LCAT is a high-level dynamic model that calculates production costs and
tracks environmental performance for a range of electricity generation
technologies:
• natural gas combined cycle (NGCC),
• integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC),
• supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC),
• existing pulverized coal (EXPC),
• existing (EXNUC) and new nuclear (Gen III Plus), and
• onshore wind (with and without backup power).
• All of the fossil fuel technologies also include an option for including carbon
capture and sequestration technologies (CCS).
• The model allows for quick sensitivity analysis on key technical and financial
assumptions, such as: capital, O&M, and fuel costs; interest rates; construction
time; heat rates; taxes; depreciation; and capacity factors.
• Power LCAT is targeted at helping policy makers, students, and interested
stakeholders understand the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated
with various electricity production options.
15
Model Availability
Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT) is available on the NETL website:
NETL Energy Analysis Models and Tools
Production Analysis
Environmental Performance
Costs vs Emissions
Sensitivity Analysis
Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool
(Power LCAT)
Version 2.0
May 2012
Modeling Team
Thomas E. Drennen and Joel S. Andruski
Timothy J. Skone, P.E. and Justin M. Adder
Terms
Assumptions
Sources
Legend
http://www.netl.doe.gov/energyanalyses/refshelf/PubDetails.aspx?Action=View&Source=Main&PubId=429
16
Contact Information
NETL
SNL
www.netl.doe.gov
Timothy J. Skone, P.E.
Lead Physical Engineer
OSEAP - Planning Team
(412) 386-4495
[email protected]
17
Justin M. Adder
Economist
OSEAP - Planning Team
(412) 386-7309
[email protected]
www.sandia.gov
Dr. Thomas E. Drennen
Senior Economist, SNL
Professor of Economics, HWS Colleges
(315) 781-3419
[email protected]

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