2010 2040 - Global Energy Security Forum

Report
The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040
Nick Jones
Florida International University
February 5, 2014
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
Motor Gasoline
Asphalt
Residential
Chemicals
Solar
100
15 demand
20 fuel
Trade
countries
sectors
Distillate
Natural Gas Commercial
Asphalt
Wind
Naphtha
Nuclear Lt. Transportation
Lubricants
Bio-mogas
Jet Fuel
Hvy. Transportation
Biomass/Other
Flaring
Bio-distillate
Fuel Oil
Coal
Aviation
types
Flows
Energy Industry
Electricity
LPG
Lubes
Technology
&Agriculture
Hydro
Marine
Market Heat
Geothermal Policy
Rail
Heavy Industry
Power Generation
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand
Population
GDP
Billion
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Non OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand
Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion
Trillion 2005$
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.0%
Energy Saved
~500
Non OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010)
2010 Percentage Urban
0-50%
50-75%
75-100%
2010 City – 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)
2040 Percentage Urban
0-50%
50-75%
75-100%
2010 City – 10 million +
2040 City – 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Tale of Two Worlds
Non OECD
OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Other Renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
2040
2025
2010
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Residential/Commercial
Residential/Commercial Outlook
By Sector
By Region
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Other
Commercial
Rest of World
Electricity
Africa
India
Residential
China
Biomass
Coal
OECD
Gas
Oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
Industrial Energy Demand
By Region
By Fuel
Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Percent Share
2010
Other
Other
Naphtha
NGLs
Rest of
Non OECD
Energy
Electricity
Industry
Other
Oil
Heavy
Industry
India
China
Chemicals
Coal
Gas
OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
2040
Heavy Industry in China and India
Global Iron & Steel Production
Heavy Industry* Demand by Region
Billion Tonnes
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Rest of
World
Rest of
World
India
India
China
China
OECD
OECD
* Iron & Steel, Cement and General Manufacturing
Transportation
Transportation Demand
Sector Demand
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040
2010
MBDOE
MBDOE
Rail
Marine
Aviation
Heavy Duty
2010
Light Duty
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency
Car Fleet by Type
Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency
Million Cars
On-Road Miles per Gallon
Average
Fleet
Europe
U.S.
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Fuel Mix by Region
Asia Pacific
North America
Europe
MBDOE
MBDOE
MBDOE
Other
Natural Gas
Fuel Oil
Jet Fuel
Biodiesel
Diesel
Ethanol
Gasoline
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
U.S. Natural Gas Vehicle Economics
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Vehicles
5-yr. Cost of Ownership;
$k
3-yr. Cost of Ownership;
$k
Fuel
Cost
Fuel
Cost
Vehicle
Cost
Vehicle
Cost
Long Haul Truck
LNG Tanks
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
Electricity Demand
Global Electrical Demand by Sector
Global Electrical Demand by Fuel
Thousand TWh
Thousand TWh
Other Industry
Gas
Heavy Industry
Coal
Commercial
Nuclear
Wind & Solar
Residential
Transportation
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Oil
Other Renewables
Electricity Use by Region
Electricity Use
1000 KWh per Capita
2040
Population (Billions)
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Growth in Electricity
Demand
2010 – 2040
~90%
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
Plant Cost, Startup 2030
Baseload Intermittent
2013 cents/kWh
Reliability
Cost*
Coal
Reliability
Cost*
Gas
$60/tonne of CO2
$0/tonne
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
*Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
CCS
Onshore
Wind
Solar PV
Utility
Emissions
CO2 Policies
2030
2040
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
~ 10
<
60 $/ton
~ 15 $/ton
~ 20 $/ton
~ 80 $/ton
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Moderate
CO2 Emissions
Emissions per Capita
Emissions per GDP
Billion Tonnes
Tonnes / Person
Tonnes / 2005$ k GDP
2010
Non OECD
2040
2010
OECD
2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
0.7%
2040
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
1.7%
2010
1.0%
0.0%
2.5%
0.4%
5.9%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
2.0%
Supply
Liquids Supply
Liquid Supply by Type
Crude and Condensate Resource*
MBDOE
Trillion barrels of oil
Biofuels
Oil Sands
Tight Oil
Deepwater
Other
Remaining
Resource
NGLs
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Cumulative
Production
through 2040
* Source: IEA
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
Major New Liquids by Region
MBDOE
Biofuels
Oil Sands
Tight Oil
Deepwater
NGLs
North America
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Remaining Global Gas Resource
Over 200 years coverage at
current demand
6.7
4.0
1.6
4.8
Russia/
Caspian*
Europe
OECD
North America
4.9
1000 TCF
Unconventional
Middle East
3.6
3.0
Asia Pacific
Africa
Latin America
Conventional
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Gas Supply Diversifies
Gas Production
by Region
Gas Production
by Type
Unconventional Production
by Type
BCFD
BCFD
BCFD
ROW
Africa
Middle East
Unconventional
Asia Pacific
Shale
Russia/Caspian
Conventional
Europe
Latin America
North America
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Coalbed Methane
Tight
Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2040
By Type
BCFD
LNG
Pipeline
Local Unconventional
Local Conventional
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
LNG Demand Triples and LNG Supply Diversifies
LNG in 2040
BCFD
Other
Europe
Atlantic
Basin
Asia
Pacific
Middle
East
2010
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Pacific
Basin
Global Energy Trade
Indicative trade flows
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade
Russia/Caspian
North America
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Latin America
MBDOE
Net Exports
Net Imports
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Africa
Natural Gas Trade
Russia/Caspian
North America
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Latin America
BCFD
Net Exports
Net Imports
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Africa
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Global Percent Mix of Fuels
Percent
Other Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
1900
1950
2000
2040
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

similar documents