Presentation - Regional Technical Forum (RTF)

Report
Residential Lighting
LED and CFL Lamps
Regional Technical Forum
April 23, 2014
2
LED Measure Overview
• Current Category:
Proven
• Current Status:
Active
• Current Sunset Date:
April 30, 2014
• Reason for Update/Review:
Sunset date
3
CFL and Specialty CFL Measure Overview
• Current Category:
Proven
• Current Status:
Active
• Current Sunset Date:
January 31, 2017
• Reason for Update/Review:
Reduce number of measures (broader
measure identifiers)
Standardize measure identifiers across
LED and CFL measures.
Standardize data sources across LED and
CFL measures.
4
Background
• CFLs and Specialty CFLs – Most recent update in
October, 2013. Sunset date: January 2017
• LEDs – Most recent updates February 2013 and
August 2013 (more delivery mechanisms).
Sunset date: April 2014.
• RTF Residential Lighting Subcommittee formed
in February in preparation for upcoming LED
sunset.
5
Staff Highlighted Areas (1)
• Baseline is RBSA, not current sales. This assumption may
not be accurate given EISA, changes in the market (e.g.
there are very few LEDs in RBSA), and large differences in
product lifetimes.
• Analysis assumes lumen-for-lumen measures. This
hypothesis has not been tested.
• Retail analysis assumes all lamps are used in residential
applications. There is anecdotal evidence that as much
as 15% of lamps end up in commercial applications
(different HOU) (see October 2013 CFL presentation).
• Analysis assumes RBSA incandescent lamps are reduced
to EISA standard, NOT to CFLs, as some would assume.
Is there an appetite for sales-volume research to address
these uncertainties?
6
Staff Highlighted Areas (2)
• Data gap filling – Staff have estimated CFL and LED cost
and performance for hypothetical products in order to
develop measures for all permutations of measure
identifiers. (e.g. LED 3-Way). Is this acceptable? In some
cases, the savings are extremely high.
• Storage rate effects - Savings and lifetime are adjusted to
account for storage rate, as per the October 2013 RTF
decision regarding CFLs.
• Incremental cost is negative for some retail CFLs.
Incremental cost is set to $0 for these cases.
• Fixtures are not included in this analysis. Staff plan to
develop a separate analysis for LED fixtures.
Current CFL and LED Measures
7
Current LED
Hours of Use
Baseline definition
Baseline lamp wattage
EE lamp wattage
Delivery Mechanisms
EE Cost
Baseline Cost
Current CFL, CFL Fixture & Specialty CFL
KEMA & DOE, by room type
RBSA observed mix of inc/hal/CFL
RBSA, by tech type, lamp type, room type
RBSA, by tech type, lamp type, room type
EnergyStar product list
BPA Simple Steps program data
Retail
Direct Install
Retail
Mail-by-Request
Direct Install
Unsolicited-Mailing
Mail-by-Request, Give-Away
Give-Away
NEEA Socket Count (no fixtures)
PSE 2013 program data
BPA Simple Steps program data
Inc/Hal - 2013 RTF staff shelf survey
Inc/Hal - ETO 2012-2013 Shelf Survey
CFL - ETO shelf survey
CFL - BPA Simple Steps program data
CFL - [10,000 hours] * [derating for on/off
switching] / [hours per year (by room type)]
Lifetime
Eligibility
Ceiling at 12 years
Cold Cathode CFL - [25,000 hours] * [derating
for on/off switching] / [hours per year (by
room type)]
Meets Energy Star criteria.
Retail/MbR/GA - 18 each = [3 lamp type] x [6 Retail/MbR/GA/Unsolicited Mail - 60 each =
lumen bins]
[10 lamp type] x [6 lumen bins]
Measure Combinations
Direct Install - 756 = [14 room type] x [3 tech Direct Install - 600 = [5 room type groups] x [2
type] x [3 lamp type] x [6 lumen bins]
tech type] x [10 lamp type] x [6 lumen bins]
8
Residential Lighting Subcommittee
• Attendance
Rebecca Blanton (PSE)
Janice Bowman (Ecova)
Aimee Brown (CLEAResult)
Ryan Crews (CLEAResult)
Ryan Firestone (RTF staff)
Jenni Francis (BPA)
Colin Gibbs (CLEAResult)
Eric Koch (Applied Proactive Technologies)
Aaron Milano (PECI)
Hillary Olson (Snohomish PUD)
Nick O’Neil (RTF staff)
Brien Sipe (CLEAResult)
Joel Smith (PSE)
Jeremy Stewart (Tacoma Power)
David Thompson (Avista)
John Voldal (Colehour + Cohen)
March 4, 2014 March 25, 2014
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9
Residential Lighting Subcommittee
• Guidance for RTF Staff:
– Reduce the number of measures
– Standardize measure identifiers across CFL and
LED measures
– Use LED cost and performance forecasts (PNNL)
for measure update
– Update CFL measure ahead of sunset date to
reflect new measure identifiers
– Do not pursue broader categorization (e.g., “Any
LED”) if it would require a provisional measure.
Subcommittee - Measure Grouping
•
After discussion with the Subcommittee, Staff suggested that the following level of
granularity:
Existing Technology Type
(DI only)
Incandescent or Halogen
CFL (LED only)
–
–
–
–
•
10
Space Type (DI only)
Exterior
Interior, high and medium usage room types
Interior, low usage room types
Lamp Type
Decorative and Mini-Base
General Purpose and Dimmable
Globe*
Reflectors and Outdoor
Three-Way
Existing Technology Type: with EISA standards applied, we’ve seen that Incandescent and Halogen
baselines are about the same. It’s OK to group these together.
Space Type: from what we’ve heard from the subcommittee, these three space types capture their
programs and differences in hours-of-use within each category are relatively minor. We expect RBSA
to be representative of program activity, so it’s OK to group spaces.
Lamp Type: this is the level of granularity that we have good data on.
Lumen Category: each lumen category reflects a distinct product
Subcommittee requested two further reductions to the categorization:
–
–
Lumen Category
250 to 369 lumens
370 to 664 lumens
665 to 1014 lumens
1015 to 1439 lumens
1440 to 2019 lumens
2020 to 2600 lumens
Merge the 6 lumen categories into 3
Merge “Globe” lamp type with “Decorative and Mini-Base”
Subcommittee
Lumen Bins – Can we go from 6 to 3?
• The following grouping was proposed:
Current RTF Lumen
Categories
Incandescent
Equivalent
Wattage
Proposed Categories
250 to 369 lumens
25W
370 to 664 lumens
40W
665 to 1014 lumens
60W
1015 to 1439 lumens
75W
1440 to 2019 lumens
100W
2020 to 2600 lumens
150W
250 - 664 lumens
665 - 1439 lumens
1440 - 2600 lumens
• But we know that there are distinct products in each of the six RTF
lumen categories.
• If we are to group products from two RTF lumen categories into a
single lumen category, we need to take weighted average results
from two distinct measures. The weighting comes from RBSA, but
program weighting may be different.
• The RTF does not have a firm policy on how granular measure
identifiers should be, but in general we will forego granularity if it
does not alter expected claimed savings by more than 10%.
11
Subcommittee
Lumen Bins – Can we go from 6 to 3?
• Staff have devised two tests to see how significant the
resolution of our savings estimates is compromised by
grouping lumen bins:
• 1) How sensitive are the RBSA results to variation in
weighting?
– For each pair of measures that would be grouped
together:
• Identify the portion of RBSA lamps in both categories
• Identify the percentage point difference in program proportions
that would lead to a 10% difference in savings
• 2) How different would program claimed savings be
under the two categorization schemes?
– For each pair of measures that would be grouped
together:
• Identify the percentage change in savings if the program counted
savings using one lumen bin, relative to using two lumen bins
12
Subcommittee
Lumen Bin Grouping Sensitivity
This is an example. See subcommittee presentation for full set of
results.
• LED DI measures, incandescent/ halogen baseline
Inc/Hal to LED DI
measures are
not very
sensitive to
differences in
RBSA and
program
proportions
13
14
Residential Lighting Subcommittee
Conclusions – Measure Identifiers
• Moving from 6 lumen categories to 3 looks good.
– This wouldn’t work for a CFL to LED direct install measure.
Subcommittee was OK not including this measure for the sake
of having less measure identifiers.
– There is some risk of getting the weights wrong on general
purpose CFLs, but program data to date shows similar
distributions of lamps as RBSA.
• Grouping Globes with Decorative and Mini-base doesn’t
look good.
• Grouping 75W equivalent lamps with 60W equivalent
lamps has less risk than grouping 75W equivalent lamps
with 100W equivalent lamps.
15
Residential Lighting Subcommittee
Final Measure Identifiers
Existing Technology Type
(DI only)
Incandescent or Halogen
Space Type (DI only)
Exterior
Interior, high and medium usage room types
Interior, low usage room types
Lamp Type
Decorative and Mini-Base
General Purpose and Dimmable
Globe
Reflectors and Outdoor
Three-Way
Lumen Category
250 to 664 lumens
665 to 1439 lumens
1440 to 2600 lumens
Methodology – Baseline Determination
• For each RBSA record, assign:
– EISA / IRL adjusted wattage (based on lamp category,
wattage)
– hours of use, by room type (KEMA, DOE)
– lamp lifetime, by lamp category.
• CFLs lifetimes are derated as a function of room type.
– baseline lamp cost, by lamp category and lumen bin.
• Incandescent and halogen costs are from the ETO shelf survey,
• CFL and LED costs are from Simple Steps program database (BPA and
additional utilities that contract with CLEAResults).
16
17
Methodology – Baseline Determination
• For each combination of categories
– Determine the total regional weight of the category.
• The is the product of the number of lamps per fixture, number of
fixtures per room, and the site survey weight of each record (i.e.
how many bulbs each record represents)
– Determine the weighted average
• Baseline EISA / IRL adjusted wattage
• HOU
• Lifetime
• HVAC interaction applicability (0% for “exterior” and “garage”
room types, 100% for all other room types)
• Baseline lamp cost
18
Analysis Map
RBSA SF/MF/MH
Lighting
RBSA_Lighting_
Metatable.xlsx
Compiled
RBSA data
• Baseline lamp data – efficacy,
Residential
lifetime, cost
Lighting
• Lifetime adjustments for CFL
Baseline Table
switching patterns
2014_04_07.xlsx
• EISA and IRL Specifications
• Hours of use by RBSA room
type
• Efficient lamp data
• Efficacy (EnergyStar),
• Lifetime (EnergyStar)
• Cost (programs)
• LED efficacy and cost
forecasts (PNNL)
Complete
baseline
dataset
ResLighting_CFL
andLEDLamps_v
01.xlsx
Data Availability
RBSA (Baseline wattage, HOU,
conditioned space)
Lamp Type
Lumen Cateogry
250 to 664 lumens
Decorative and Mini665 to 1439 lumens
Base
1440 to 2600 lumens
250 to 664 lumens
General Purpose and
665 to 1439 lumens
Dimmable
1440 to 2600 lumens
250 to 664 lumens
Globe
665 to 1439 lumens
1440 to 2600 lumens
250 to 664 lumens
Reflectors and
665 to 1439 lumens
Outdoor
1440 to 2600 lumens
250 to 664 lumens
Three-Way
665 to 1439 lumens
1440 to 2600 lumens
Moderate
and Highuse Interior
1386
353
11
1738
7807
1190
163
143
42
235
1395
42
6
105
528
Low-use
Interior
494
179
5
934
4623
485
691
405
17
93
873
80
1
3
46
Exterior
70
33
1
100
1025
153
9
8
1
16
442
205
0
0
2
19
CFLs
Energy Star
QPL
(efficacy,
lifetime)
13
1
0
73
313
144
19
13
0
25
60
0
0
0
9
LEDs
Energy Star
QPL
Simple
(efficacy,
Simple
Steps (cost)
lifetime)
Steps (cost)
4332
74
0
2572
0
0
0
0
0
8813
64
497
42110
178
844
20038
23
0
8940
69
144
4959
3
0
0
0
0
11910
460
767
35018
998
2217
10
17
0
0
0
0
4816
0
0
3810
0
0
How data gaps are handled:
• If RBSA data does not exist – set measure savings to zero.
• If Energy Star or Simple Steps data does not exist – extrapolate data from similar product (same
lamp type, lower lumens, or different lamp type, same lumens).
RTF Decisions:
• Should we include measures that we don’t have efficient case data for?
• Can we group Three-Way lamps with General Purpose and Dimmable?
20
Measure Analysis and Inputs Details
• Go to the following sections in the Summary
tab in the proposed measure workbook:
– Constant Parameters
– Energy Savings Estimation Method, Parameters
and Data Sources
– Measure Incremental Costs and Benefits
– Measure Lifetime
21
Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness
Most significant reasons for differences in current and proposed
results:
• EISA 2014 Standards - Current LED analysis does not include EISA
2014 standards (60W and 40W equivalent lamps). Proposed LED
analysis does.
– Current and Proposed CFL analyses include 2014 EISA.
• Lumen-for-lumen handling - Switch from using average wattage
from efficient case datasets, to using average efficacy, and lumen
matching to average base case.
• IRL Standard - Better handling of Incandescent Reflector Lamp
federal standard.
• Imperfect mapping for comparison - Current LED omnidirectional
lamp results are compared to proposed General Purpose, Globe,
and Three-Way; the current Globe and Three-Way results are
heavily influenced by the current General Purpose results.
Sample of Savings Results
• Direct Install, LED
22
Sample of Savings Results
• Retail, LED
23
Sample of Savings Results
• Direct Install, CFL
24
Sample of Savings Results
• Retail, CFL
25
Sample of TRC BC Results
• Direct Install, LED
26
Sample of TRC BC Results
• Retail, LED
27
Sample of TRC BC Results
• Direct Install, CFL
Y-axis capped at 10
28
Sample of TRC BC Results
• Retail, CFL
Y-axis capped at 10
29
30
Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness
• Pivot charts are included in the Measure
Assessment Workbook to view Savings, Cost, and
Cost-effectiveness for all Delivery Mechanisms
and Efficient Technologies (CFL, LED).
• Go to the following sections in the Presentation
tab in the proposed measure workbook:
– Comparison-Savings
– Comparison-Cost
– Comparison-TRC BC
31
RTF Staff Recommendation
• Regional commitment to research the questions on Slide 5 in time
for measure update next year.
• Group Three-Way with General Purpose and Dimmable. Three-way
has relatively small volume in RBSA, programs, and Energy Star and
there may be cross-shopping between these lamp types.
• Approve LED and CFL lamp measures as presented
– Using the proposed measure identification categories (3 room types, 5 4
lamp types, 3 lumen categories)
– Allow data-gap filling for efficient lamp datasets
• Set the measure category to “Proven”
• Set the measure status to “Active”
• Set the sunset date to June 2015 (allows one year for new data plus
two months for Staff analysis).
• Develop a Residential LED Fixtures measure set for presentation to
the RTF in summer 2014.
32
Proposed Decision
“I _______________ move that the RTF:
•
Approve LED and CFL lamp measures as presented
•
Using the proposed measure identification categories
(3 room types, [5] or [4] lamp types, 3 lumen
categories)
•
Set the measure category to “Proven”
•
Set the measure status to “Active”
•
Set the sunset date to June 2015
33
Appendix: Storage Rate Slides from
October 2013 CFL Presentation
34
Accounting for Storage Rate
• To date, the RTF has not counted savings for energy efficient
equipment that is installed later on.
• But there is evidence that most CFLs eventually get installed,
probably within a few years of purchase or receipt.
• How should the RTF account for stored-but-eventually-used
products?
35
Storage Rate – Lifetime Guidelines
1.2.2. Measure Lifetime
• Measure lifetime is defined as the median number of years during
which at least half the deliveries of a measure are in place and
operable, i.e., produce savings. Measure lifetime should not be
confused with a measure’s sunset date, which is the period during
which a measure’s savings estimation method is RTF-approved.
2.3.1. Factors Affecting Lifetime
• Many factors may have a substantial impact on measure lifetime.
All substantial factors should be considered in the estimation. A
factor is substantial if it would increase or decrease the measure
lifetime by at least 20%.
• Factors that may be relevant to measure lifetime include, but are
not limited to, the following.
– Program delivery method. Measures directly installed may last longer
than measures delivered via mail for self-install, because self-installers
may be less skilled and may not install according to manufacturer
expectations, such as appropriate placement.
36
Storage Rate – CFL Failure
• Lamps installed right away (e.g., direct install)
Source: Review of Massachusetts tracking data. Lynn Hoefgen et al., 2013, “Study It ‘til You’re Sick of It: CFL Research as
an Example of Other Efficiency Markets”, 2013 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference.
37
Storage Rate – CFL Failure
• But not all retail lamps get installed right away
Assumes that 24% of lamps are installed at time of receipt, and 8% of lamps are installed in each of the
subsequent 3 years.
38
Storage Rate – CFL Failure
• But not all retail lamps get installed right away
Note:
1) Installation rate
increases in first few
years
2) But some lamps
installed in the first
couple of years are
already failing
3) The lifetime of the
retail measure (6.1) is
longer than that of the
direct install measure
(5.5).
39
Storage Rate – Savings Guidelines
Roadmap 1.3.2. Savings
• “Savings is defined as the difference in energy
use between the baseline (see section 3.2)
and post (after measure delivery) periods,
which is caused by the delivery of a measure.”
– Not clear on how to specify savings with unusual
decay functions.
– Historically, RTF has used first year savings, except
for Last Measure In (LMI) measures.
40
Storage Rate – Questions
•
What should the savings value represent?
–
–
–
–
•
First year savings?
Maximum savings before end of EUL?
Average savings from measure start until death of last unit?
Something else?
The answer to this should inform how to handle storage rates for CFLs, where
we
– know the patterns of failure overtime, and
– think we know when stored bulbs eventually get used
•
Staff proposal:
– Use first year savings
– Use failure and installation patterns to estimate median time to 50% installation. This
complies with the Guidelines.
– Guidelines Issue: This does not lead to the correct lifetime savings (savings x EUL).
[RTF approved this proposal at the October 2013 RTF meeting]
•
Staff also received a proposal to disregard storage rate because the stored
lamps tend to get installed within a few years. This has been discussed at
previous RTF meetings.

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