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Report
Interpretation of household
indicators
Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE
24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica
Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata
Overview of energy efficiency policies for households: case of Brazil
Minimum levels of energy
efficiency for compact
fluorescent lamps
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 132
Changes Law 9.991
60% of the amount of
PEE’s must be allocated
to low income energy
efficiency projects
Minimum levels of energy
efficiency for water gas heaters
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 298
Targets programs for air
conditioners, water heaters,
gas stoves and ovens and
refrigerators and freezers
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 323, 324, 325 and 326
PNE 2030
2006
2008
2007
Maximum levels of electricity consumption
for refrigerators and freezers
Interministerial Ordinance N° 362
Minimum levels of energy efficiency for gas
stoves and ovens and air conditioners
Interministerial Ordinance N° 363 and 364
2009
2010
PNEF – Portaria
N°594
Building labelling
for household
sector
Source: MME/EPE, 2013
2011
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 1.007 - Schedule establishes
minimum limits for
incandescent lamps in order to
ban them from the market
Huge impact in the
household sector!
Targets programs for
compact fluorescent
lamps
Interministerial
Ordinance
N° 1.008
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global trends
Consumption by end-use
Diffusion of efficient equipment
Domestic electrical appliances
Contents
1. Global trends
a. Trends in household consumption and main drivers (private consumption and
number of households)
•
Identification of homogenous periods (index)
•
Variation by period (%/year)
b. Specific energy consumption per household (or per dwelling): total
(toe/household) and electricity(kWh per household) (trends with double
vertical axis)
c. Specific electricity consumption per household vs per electrified household (if
relevant)
Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption:
Identification of homogeneous periods : case of Brazil
1990-2005: Plano Real since 1993): increase in private consumption and energy crisis in
2001 (decrease in energy consumption, of which 20% for electricity).
2005-2012 Private consumption increased faster than energy consumption. Household
devices regulated by Energy Efficiency Law more available in market.
Energy consumption trends, private consumption and number of households (1990=100, Brazil)
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
100
energy consumption
private consumption
electricity consumption
number of households
5
Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption:
case of Brazil
 Household energy consumption is growing moderately and much slower than
household income (private consumption), especially since 2005.
 The electricity consumption is following the increase in private consumption.
 Steady demographic pressure (increasing number of households)~ 2,6% per year
Trends in energy consumption, private consumption and number of households in Brazil (%/year)
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1990-2005
energy consumption
2005-2012
private consumption
number of households
1990-2012
electricity consumption
6
Specific energy consumption per household: case of Brazil
 Energy consumption decrease due to the fall in the firewood demand.
 Electricity consumption increase due to the growth of private consumption and a
better income distribution.
2,000
0.60
0.55
1,900
Electricity
crisis
1,800
0.50
1,700
1,600
0.45
1,500
0.40
1,400
0.35
1,300
1,200
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.30
toe/dwelling
kWh/dwelling
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance (BEN), EPE
7
1.25
2,500
1.20
2,000
1.15
1,500
1.10
1,000
1.05
500
1.00
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Toe/hogar
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Kwh/hogar
2009
2010
2011
KWh/ hogar
Toe/ hogar
Specific energy consumption per household: case of Chile
Specific electricity per household: effect of electrification
•Per electrified household, the electricity consumption increases less rapidly than per
household, due to households electrification:
•In Bolivia and Paraguay, the electricity consumption per electrified household actually
decreased and the increase in the electricity consumption per household is due to
electrification (from 68% to 77% in Bolivia and from 83% to 100% in Paraguay).
•In Morocco, electrification explains 2/3 of the electricity consumption growth
•The right indicator to monitor energy efficiency is the electricity consumption per
electrified household.
Specific electricity consumption per household: effect of electrification (2000-2010)
5%
Per household
Per electrified household
Electrification
4%
%/year
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
Morocco
Bolivia: 2004-2011
Bolivia
Paraguay
9
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global trends
Consumption by end-use
Diffusion of efficient equipments
Domestic electrical appliances
Contents
2. Consumption by end-use
a. Distribution of consumption by main end-use (space heating, cooking, water
heating, air conditioning, electrical appliances and lighting; pie charts in 2000
and 2010)  main end-uses;
b. Specific consumption by main end-use (toe or kWh /dwelling)
c. Specific consumption for cooking per dwelling: final and useful energy
(histograms for 2000 and 2010)  substitution effect
d. Specific consumption for space heating (climate corrected if possible
histograms for 2000 and 2010)
Distribution of energy consumption by end-use: Brazil
 Increasing share of electricity captive use, because an increase in household
electricity equipment ownership.
 Decreasing in cooking consumption due to the participation of more efficient fuels
(reduction in firewood consumption) and increased meals made ​outside the home.
2005
2012
1%
3% 7%
2%
3% 8%
water heating - LPG and gas
water heating - electricity
24%
24%
cooking - LPG and gas
32%
25%
cooking - firewood and charcoal
electricity captive use
40%
Source: BEN, EPE
29%
cooling
Distribution of consumption by end-use: case of Chile (2010)
Aire
acondionado
0%
Artefactos
eléctricos
16%
Cocina
10%
Agua Caliente
18%
Calefacción
56%
Source: estudio “Curva de conservación de la energía del sector residencial” , 2010 (encuesta
de cerca de 3200 hogares con una representatividad de 95%)
Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Brazil
Stable consumption with a decreasing specific consumption for cooking and an increasing
use of electricity.
Households specific energy consumption by main end-use (Brazil)
[toe/dw]
0.45
0.40
0.041
0.041
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.266
0.206
0.105
0.121
2005
2012
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Electricity
Cooking
Water Heating
Source: EPE
14
Household specific consumption by end-use:
case of Argentina
Specific consumption by end-use (toe/households)
0,5
0,45
0,4
0,35
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
CALEFACCION
REFRIGERACION
2006
COCINA
2010
COCINA (Util)
Specific electricity consumption per household by end-use: Brazil
 The growth of the specific electricity consumption per household is mainly linked to
large electrical equipment such as refrigerators, TV, washing machines, air conditioning
and others.
 Lighting and water heating follow a stable trend.
[kWh/dw]
2,000
1,800
286
100
1,600
1,400
1,200
289
71
1,000
800
1,128
867
600
400
200
350
359
2005
2012
0
Hot water
Electrical appliances
Cooling
Lighting
Source: EPE
Source: ODYSSEE
16
Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Chile
Household specific energy consumption by main end-use (2010) (Chile)
0.700
0.600
Toe/ hogar
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
Calefacción
Agua Caliente
Cocina
Aire acondionado
Artefactos eléctricos
Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: Brazil
Specific energy consumption for cooking is decreasing steadily because of substitution of
biomass by LPG.
Household specific energy consumption for cooking (toe/household) (Brazil)
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
1990
0.15
2000
0.1
2010
0.05
0
Medener
18
Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: effect of
substitution : case of Brazil
Over the period 1990-2010, substitution of LPG for biomass contributed to decrease
the consumption per household by 0.8%/year
Since 2000, this substitution trend reversed slightly and fuel substitutions
contributed to slightly increase the consumption per household for cooking.
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
1990-2010
2000-2010
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
final energy
useful energy
impact of substitution
Substitution effect = difference in variation of final and useful energy; useful energy calculated by multiplying final
energy by end-use efficiency (5% efficiency for wood,; 45% for LPG)
Source: BIEE/EPE
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global trends
Consumption by end-use
Diffusion of efficient equipment
Domestic electrical appliances
Contents
3. Indicators of diffusion of efficient appliances :
a. Diffusion of solar water heaters:
i. annual surface of solar water heaters installed per year (m2)
ii. % of households equipped*
iii. production of solar heat** (ktoe/capita/ year) and energy saved
b. Penetration of efficient lamps :
i. Number of CFL per household
ii. % of households with one CFL
c.
Penetration of efficient labels
Solar water heater (SWH) equipment rates: Brazil
 Diffusion of SWH during period 2005-2012 from 1,3% to almost 4%;
 Increase of installed area from 2.795 to 8.419 m2/ 1.000 inhab.
745 GWh
(avoided consumption)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
Installed m²/1.000 inhabitants
2009
2010
2011
2012
% household with SWH
Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA)
*% of households with SHW= total installed area in m2 divided by the average size of a solar
panel per dwelling (e.g. 3 m2 /); avoided consumption= production of solar heat (calculated 22
from the installed area of solar water heaters multiplied by the average solar output per m2) .
Household CFL diffusion : case of Tunisia
Strong increase in the average number of CFL per household from 1 in 2007 to
2.7 in 2010;
Nombre de LBC par ménage
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source ANME (ratio parc installé chez les ménages sur nombre de ménages
23
Diffusion of efficient labels
Market share of label A and B for refrigerators (Chile )
100
90
A
B
80
70
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Diffusion of efficient labels
Market share of label A and B for lamps (Chile)
25
A
B
%
20
15
10
5
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global trends
Specific consumption by end-use
Diffusion of efficient equipments
Domestic electrical appliances
Content
4. Household electrical appliances
a. Trends in household equipment ownership: 2000 and 2010
b. Distribution of electricity consumption by end-use/equipment (lighting,
refrigerator, TV, etc…) (chart pies 2000 and 2010);
c. Specific consumption by appliance;
d. Decomposition of electricity consumption variation by equipment/enduse
Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances: case of
Brazil
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Refrigerator
Washing
machine
TV
Electric shower
2005
Air
conditioning
Freezer
Lamps
2012
Source: EPE
28
Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances:
case of Chile
120
100
%
80
1992
60
2002
2010
40
20
0
refrigerador
lavadora
TV
microondas
Distribution of electricity consumption per
household by appliance/end-use: Chile
Calefacciòn
2%
Otros
20%
Refrigerador
30%
Lavadora
4%
Aspiradora
5%
Computador
5%
Cocina
6%
TV
12%
Iluminación
16%
Specific electricity consumption by type of appliance :
Chile
700
600
KWh/ hogar
500
400
300
200
100
0
Refrigerador
Iluminación
TV
Cocina
Computador
Aspiradora
Lavadora
Calefacciòn
Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of
appliances
The objective of the decomposition of the electricity consumption variation of a
given appliance (e.g. refrigerators) between 2 years (e.g. 2000 and 2010) is to
measure the effect of 3 factors:
•Demographic effect : more households
•Equipment ownership effect : impact of the increase in the number of
appliances
•Energy savings effect: influence of a decrease in the average specific
consumption per appliance (kWh/year)
32
Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of
appliances : methodology
•Appliance consumption E= HH*TEQ*SEC
With:
E consumption of the appliance
HH: number of households
TEQ: equipment ownership ratio (% of households with the appliance)
SEC: average specific consumption of the appliance (kWh/year)
Calculation of electricity consumption variation between year 0 and t
Demographic effect =∆HH*TEQ0*SEC0
Equipment ownership effect: HH0*∆TEQ*SEC0
Energy savings effect: HHt*TEQt*∆SEC
Et - E0= sum of 3 effects
33
Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : example
of TV
Unite
1000
%
kWh
GWh
Number of households
% of households with TV
Specific consumption of TV
Total consumption of TV
Consumption of TV variation
Effect of TV stock increase
of which demographic effect
of which equipement ownership effect
Specific consumption effect
GWh
GWh
GWh
2000
4416
82,3
292
1062
2010
5700
94,7
277
1497
2000-2010
435
514
309
205
-79
Drivers of consumption variation for TV (GWh) (2000-2010)
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Consumption
variation
demographic
effect
equipement
ownership effect
Energy savings
effect
34
Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of
refrigerators in Brazil
The increased number of households contributed to raise the consumption by 3.757
GWh (“demographic effect” ).
Progression in the diffusion of the equipment contributed to a further 1.402 GWh
increase.
However, the consumption of refrigerators only increased by 4.039 GWh and not by
5.159 GWh as energy savings contributed lower the consumption by 1.119 GWh.
GWh
Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for refrigerators in Brazil (2005-2012)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
Consumption
variation
Demographic
effect
Equipment
ownership effect
Energy savings
effect
Source: EPE
35
Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of
air conditioning in Brazil
• The equipment ownership was the main factor for the consumption increase;
• This happened due to demographic effect as well as the increase in income in the
period, attending a part of the pent-up demand for air conditioners.
GWh
Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for air conditioning in Brazil (20052012)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
Consumption
variation
Demographic
effect
Equipment
ownership effect
Energy savings
effect
Source: EPE
36

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