Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015

Report
Medium-term challenges and the
shaping of a post-2015
development agenda in the
Caribbean
Alicia Bárcena
Executive Secretary
ECLAC, United Nations
Sixteenth meeting of the
Monitoring Committee of the
Caribbean Development and
Cooperation Committee
Georgetown,
July 11
Slower growth of global economy affected
regional trade
South
America
Central (except
Latin
America Brazil) America
2011
Brazil
2011
Caribbea
n
Mexico
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED CHANGE OF THE VALUE OF EXPORTS
ACCORDING TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF VOLUME AND PRICE, 2011 y 2012ª
(In percentages)
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2012
2012
2011
2012
-10%
0%
Volumen
10%
20%
30%
Price
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures. a Figures for 2012 correspond to estimations.
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
Tourism performs at low rates
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGES OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS, 2009-2012
(In percentages, three month moving average)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on figures from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
The current model is unsustainable
 The crisis is questioning the dominant model, and thus an
opportunity to chart a new course
 A model associated with two decades of high wealth
concentration
 Sporadic actions against environmental degradation are
not enough for building long term resilience
 For the region, this means facing up to its historical and
more recent challenges:
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Worst income distribution in the world
Increasingly heterogeneous production patterns
Segmentation of the labour market and social protection
Racial, ethnic and gender discrimination
Asymmetrical vulnerability to climate change
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
Where is the Caribbean today: risks and challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Classified as high, middle- income economies except Haiti
Severely affected by the crisis of developed countries
Vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change
Mixed situation in respect of fuel, food and finance
Graduating from concessional financing and preferential trade
although inequities remain
Highly indebtedness with decreasing investment
Rethinking its development models with more innovation and
diversification
Needing a structural change for equality and environmental
sustainability
Inadequate governance structrures – the case of depotees
back to the Caribbean
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
LAC is predominantly a middle-income region: 85% of
all countries fall in that category
PERCENTAGE OF COUNTRIES FROM EACH REGION CLASSIFIED AS MIDDLE-INCOME
Only five of all 33 countries in the region are
not classified as middle-income: 1 is lowincome and 4 are high-income.
90%
80%
70%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Porcentajes del total
60%
10%
0%
América
Latina y el
Caribe
Asia del Sur
Oriente
Medio y
Norte de
Africa
Asia del Este y Africa SubPacífico
Sahariana
Europa y Asia
Central
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
In 2012 the region GDP was 3.0%, and similar rates are expected
for 2013 and will be better for Caribbean countries
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATES, 2012
(Percentages)
Panama
Peru
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of)
Chile
Nicaragua
Bolivia (Plur. State of)
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Central America (9 countries)
Colombia
Mexico
Uruguay
Dominican Republic
Honduras
Cuba
Latin America
Guatemala
Latin America and the Caribbean
Haiti
South America (10 countries)
Argentina
El Salvador
Caribbean
Brazil
-1.2
Paraguay
-2.0
10.7
6.2
5.6
5.6
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.8
4.3
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
1.9
1.6
0.9
0.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Belize
5.3
Guyana
4.8
Suriname
4.5
Latin America and the Caribbean
3.0
The Bahamas
2.5
Antigua and Barbuda
2.3
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
1.5
Grenada
1.2
Caribbean
0.9
Trinidad and Tobago
0.4
Barbados
0.0
Jamaica
-0.3
Saint Kitts and Nevis
-1.1
Dominica
-1.5
Saint Lucia -3.0
10.0 12.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
2.0
4.0
6.0
While unemployment fell in the region, the Caribbean has
suffered significant increases
URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 2008 - 2012
(Percentage)
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
REST OF SOUTH AMERICA
8.0
7.0
BRAZIL
CARIBBEAN
6.0
MEXICO
5.0
CENTRAL AMERICA
4.0
2008
2009
Brazil
Mexico
Caribbean (5 countries)
2010
2011
2012
Rest of South America (9 countries)
Central America (6 countries)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
Caribbean tax burden is higher than Latin
American countries…
CARIBBEAN: TAX INCOME, 2011
(As percentge of GDP)
Suriname
Trinidad y Tabago
Barbados
Dominica
Jamaica
Belice
San Vicente y las Granadinas
Saint Kitts y Nevis
Santa Lucía
Guyana
Granada
Antigua y Barbuda
Bahamas
LA average(19%)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
30.0
35.0
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
9
Towards a sustainable
development agenda in
the Caribbean with equality at
the center
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
New paradigms are needed: structural
change for equality and sustainability
• Economic growth is necessary but not enough
• Social protection necessary. Of the 3 dimension of SD, least
emphasis is placed on the social aspect
• Open economies require deliberate industrial policies to
increase productivity, value-added jobs & universal social
protection
• Addressing persisting inequalities should be the basis of
economic and social policies
• Real gender parity should be based on economic autonomy
• Neither State-centric or market-centric: need for more
equilibrium
• Social and fiscal pacts for the collective provision of public
goodsMedium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
The UN Post -2015 Agenda Provides a Broad
Development Framework
• The report of the High-level Panel provides broad useful guidelines for
rethinking development
• It moves beyond the MDGs by stressing the need to integrate economic,
social and environmental aspects of development into a coherent strategy
• The High-level Panel proposed five transformative shifts to promote
sustainable development:
1. Leave no one behind;
2. Put sustainable development at the core;
3. Transform economies for jobs and inclusive growth;
4. Build peace and effective, open and accountable institutions for all
and;
5. Forge a new global partnership for sustainable development.
However, the report does not address the special circumstances of SIDS
2
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
A Global Partnership must recognize special
needs of middle-income SIDS
• Caribbean countries seek to ameliorate five key
challenges:
– Their structural vulnerability to economic and
financial shocks;
– Their graduation from soft development financing
based on middle income status;
– The increasing threat that SIDS face from climate
change and natural disasters and more recently;
– A mounting debt burden , low investment
– Growing inequalities and unemployment
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Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
The Caribbean must carve a reform Agenda
based on SIDS Plan of action
• To tailor the development agenda to its needs, the
Caribbean requires a reform agenda based on SIDS
framework
• The SIDS framework would provide the platform for
integrating the economic, social and environmental
issues (the Triad) into a single coherent Sustainable
development vision.
• Regional integration: new concept of intra-regional
trade of intermediate goods and services
4
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
Development Vision should be built on Four
Key Pillars
 Dynamic Structural transformation for
inclusive/pro-poor growth;
 Regional integration to leverage
opportunities and reduce risks;
 Full operationalisation of the Caribbean
Single Market and the Economy
 Social protection for improved equity and
capability building and;
 A global partnership for prosperity
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
5
Integration with convergence is key to build
resilience
 Boost regional trade, investment and functional
cooperation to their full potential;
 Provide a training ground for firms to learn the ‘’tricks of
the trade’ to penetrate international markets;
 Act as an improved mechanism for foreign policy
coordination;
 South-South and SIDS-SIDS cooperation in trade, energy,
food security, adaptation to climate change and
technology
 Complementarities between regional and subregional
institutions: convergence between investment, trade and
cooperation
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
7
Social equality and economic growth are
not mutually exclusive
• Growth with equality; equality as a driver of growth
 With macroeconomic conditions that mitigate volatility, stimulate
productivity and favour inclusion
 With production patterns that close internal and external gaps
• Promoting equality by building human skills and actively
redressing disparities
 Universalizing rights and social benefits
 Fostering inclusion through the labour market
 Achieving territorial convergence
• Environmental sustainability, with changing patterns of
consumption and production
• With a smarter and stronger State capable of
redistributing, regulating and supervising
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
A reading of the post-2015 agenda
1. Stay focus on the remaining gaps to achieve the MDGs
2. New and old challenges call for a new development model based on
a structural change for equality with a rights-base approach
3. Increased labor productivity with decent jobs and universal access to
social protection.
4. Link education with employment
5. Environmental sustainability with full internalization of costs.
6. Policy and institutions matter: Rule of Law regulation, taxation,
financing and governance of natural resources with a new equation
State, market and society
7. Sustainable development goals need convergence, careful
sequencing after 2015, to move beyond the minimum goals to
universal goals on fair trade, technology transfer and international
financial reform
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
Towards the future we want in
Latin America and the Caribbean
• Fulfillment of MDGs: necessary condition, but not sufficient
• From basic needs to filling structural gaps
• Fundamental to ensure national and international enabling
conditions/goals
• Move from national- and developing-countries-oriented
targets to universal objectives and with revived metrics
• The post-2015 development agenda requires a global
financing and technology transfer pact
• Needs to consider the vulnerabilities of SIDS
• Concepts with a long-term, rights-based approach
• The goal: more resilient, self-sufficient and balanced
economies
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
A Forum is required to keep Development
issues centre stage
• We propose that the Caribbean Development
Roundtable (CDR) is the ideal forum for this purpose
• The CDR is a High Level Development Forum that
brings together experts from the public and private
sectors and civil society to:
* Discuss development Challenges and
Opportunities in the Caribbean
* Provide practical recommendations that could be
considered for implementation by policy makers
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Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena
The CDR is the ideal Forum
• The ECLAC Caribbean Office has launched two successful
CDRs.
• The last CDR was held in Guyana in 2012.
• It focused on how the region could use macroeconomic
policies to advance structural transformation and social
protection in the Caribbean
• It proposed a programme of radical restructuring to
develop competitive exports and
• social protection focused on investing in the skills and
capacity of the poor
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Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda
Alicia Bárcena

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