Water, Energy, Food Nexus: A Perspective Through Eyes of Water Policy Johannesburg, April 20, 2012 by Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli Institute for Water Resources US Army Corps of Engineers Governor World Water Council Editor in Chief Water Policy [email protected] Water Security and Social Stability: Worldwide Growing Concerns for Mega Nexus e.g. Recent U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment During the next 10 years, many countries………….will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, …………….Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. .( Global Water Security U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT-ICA 2012-08, 2 February 2012) By 2050 $63 trillion in Global GDP could be at risk because of water stress IFPR in Tapping Water Markets, by Anderson, et. al., RFF Press,2012 p 159 . How to allocate and reallocate among the sector uses? Which sector has priority? Why? Water - Energy - Food Linkages (Samples from World Economic Forum Initiative) Water essential for all the core drivers of economic growth Increase in energy demand by 40% using current system means increase of freshwater needs by 165% If the Ogallala Aquifer runs dry, more then $20 billion worth of food and fiber will vanish from the World's markets…. James Little Saving the Ogallala Aquifer, Scientific American 19, March 32-29 Shale extraction, concentrated solar plants demand large increase freshwater use Replacing 5-6% of energy consumption with bio fuels could double water withdrawals for agriculture In U.S. 13 % electricity is to move, treat, and heat water. California’s water-related energy uses 19% of the state’s electricity, 30 percent of natural gas, and 88 billion gallons of diesel fuel/yr With projected Population growing to 9 Billion – do we have enough water to feed ourselves? UN Water 2007 1. Looking at WEF Mega Nexus through a Water Policy IWRM Lens Finding the operational Nexus Region Specific Trade-offs Trade-offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values: Patterns Change over time: Depend on: Center of Allocations Debates •Socio- Economic Development • Political Culture - Accountability – Legitimacy Efficiencies •Geography (wet, dry, variability) •Available techologyEquity - Fairness Water is the constraint thatSocial forces choices; trade-offs – integrative “jump start” Macro Values/Goals Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power •Often defined as technical terms and political is left out •BUT- Cannot achieve integration w/o political Processes to allocate water are means to achieve NEXUS integration/success: •Politics – Markets – water banking -RBO’s - Infrastructure - Planning – Regulations – Defining Rights – trade – technology - others Logic of Water Org’s often not logic of legal Org’s: History – Mega Nexus concerns not new to Water Policy Mega Nexus and Water Policy central to Growth of Civilizations •Early Humans adapted by moving as climate changed Technical Interventions allow Migratory to Sedentary Creativity and innovation •Canals for irrigation – routes for boats and more trade +++ •19th cen. Disease spurs Public Water Supply Systems Markets - Trading in South Australia During 6 year + drought Water use overall was cut back 70% agricultural production value dropped only 30% (WSJ, 2/28/12 A8) Interstate Compact Commission Interstate Commission for Potomac (ICPRB) 16 dams originally planned; actual 1 large and 1 minor dam by best use of non structural approaches & coordination of States through ICPRB; system yield up by 50% - in stream needs and quality vs. 45% with dams China: Increase of Irrigation Efficiencies 30 years •0 growth in Irrigation water use •Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares •Increase grain yield by 50% (Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn) Political Cultural Drivers of Change • Water Reforms most advanced where see Macro Economic reform open markets, less corruption, more participation • water crises • macro economic crises (Mexico, India…) • political restructuring (SA- human rights…) • liberalization policies (Chile, Brazil, China…) • meeting EU standards (Spain, Poland, Hungary…) • international lenders and donors Birth & Growth of the U.S. Water Ways & Establishment of National Federal Interventions Over Interstate Issues 1808: Gallatin Report Waterways to be used for: Building Political Unity and Nation National Defense Economic Development 1824: GIBBONS VS. OGDEN Marshal Gibbons Ogden (Estbl. Federal Powers vs. States) Claims are said to be repugnant– 1st. To that clause in the constitution which authorizes Congress to regulate commerce. 2d. To that which authorizes Congress to promote the progress of science and useful arts. 1920’s -“308” Reports: Congress Authorizes USACE do Comp. assessments of all major rivers of the US In 1 Generation TVA a Region Poverty to Prosperity , “a corporation clothed with the power of government but possessed of the flexibility and initiative of a private enterprise.” (FDR, 1933) TVA dams to harness the region’s rivers to control floods, improve navigation, and TVA’s to generated But attempts for 7 more fail: electricity. HellsSubsidies Canyon– Dam: Reasserts agriculture Cross integrations of power production,priority use Small hydro largemalaria MOP prevention, navigation, floodvs. control, reforestation, or erosion control, agriculture States vs. Federal Gov productivity……. No constituency for Regions or semi autonomous Regional Entities with comprehensive power for MOP “Power is really a secondary matter. What we are doing there is taking a watershed with about three and a half million people in it, almost all of them rural, and we are trying to make a different type of citizen out of them from what they would be under their present conditions.” (FDR, Press Conference, Warm Springs, Ga, November 23, 1934) How do we approach the need for integration on such scale? DANGER: Political implications in Holistic Comprehensive Approaches Philosopher of Science Karl Popper (in 1944) cautions: “Holistic or Utopian social engineering….aims at reforming the whole of society in accordance with a definite plan… extending the power of the state…” “Piecemeal engineering …concerned with the whole…tries to achieve ideals by small adjustments and readjustments…to continually improve…” “Holistic methods turn out to be impossible…the greater the changes… the greater The Unintended Consequences…..forcing piecemeal improvisation… unplanned planning….” “Piecemeal engineering ….attacks problem with open mind….for it has decided Adaptation-adaptive management becomes the democratic beforehand that .. reconstruction is possible and necessary…(that humannorms. uncertainties exist)” Holistic engineering deal with uncertainty of human factor by controlling it through institutional means……. (Popper, Piecemeal social Engineering, in Popper Selections, p 308-311) 2. DEFINING WATER AND SECURITY WATER SECURITY: BIG “S”AND SMALL “s” Interdependence Vulnerability or Flexibility? The Big “S”: Conflict, War, Large Scale Violence •Water as Independent variable, cause of war – conflict •Water as Tool of War – social Violence •Eco – Shocks and Social Unrest The Small “s”: Water: Means to Other Social Ends Our English Dictionaries define security as: “ freedom from danger, from fear or anxiety, from want or deprivation.” This is the history of humanity’s management of water: •trying to be sure we have good water, in the right quantity at the proper time and place. •Predicting floods, reserving sources for droughts, using water to help us generate wealth and avoid deprivation. Defining Water Stress and “s” Defining Water Stress: Access vs. Scarcity vs. Stress Most People live: Far distance from water sources; Where most water comes in only a few months of the years. North & Central America: Asia: South America: Europe: Africa: 15% of Water – 8% of population 36% of Water – 60% of population 26% of water – 6% of population 11% of water – 13% of population 11% of water – 13% of population (Zimmerman in T.L. Anderson, Tapping Water markets, RFF Press, 2012 P. 4) Access to What? Asia: 35% of waste water is treated Latin America: 14% of waste water is treated Africa: 1% of waste water is treated (T.L. Anderson, Tapping Water markets, RFF Press, 2012, P. 5) Defining Water Stress and the small “s”: Summary on Water Indices •Hard to determine whether water is truly scarce in the physical sense at a global scale (a supply problem) •Hard to determine if it is available but should be used better (a demand problem). Most widely used indicator, the Falkenmark indicator, does not help to explain the true nature of water scarcity. •The more complex indicators are not widely applied because data are lacking to apply them and the definitions are not intuitive. •Water is (p) physically scarce in densely populated arid areas, Central and West Asia, and North Africa, •Scarcity at a national scale has as much to do with the development of the demand as the availability of the supply. , , International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka Frank R. Rijsberman 3. MAIN THESIS Water Actions as Key Societal Adaptation Tools Investment in allocation means (e.g. hard and soft Multi-Purpose Water Infrastructure) Water Security (small s) Minimum Platform for Growth Internal Stability and Security (large S) Strategic Security WATER IS MORE THEN ACCESS • Many uses: irrigation, floods damage reductions, drought, ecological flows, hydropower, energy coolants, navigation, recreation • Multiple Purpose uses Allows for Jointly Creating Benefits (both off and on) the water vs. Fighting Over Allocation of Flows – Key to Water Venue of Dialog • Water’s Tradition of Expanding the Negotiating Pie vs. Reallocating Limited Pie: – Absolute vs. Relative Scarcity; Redistribution vs. Relative Deprivation – Interest/Needs Based Negotiations - Approaches – Virtual Water Movement Mechanisms to allocate and reallocate among water uses • Water More Humanity’s Learning Ground for are Keys to Meg Nexus:of War Building Community then Generator RBO’s - Infrastructure - Markets - Planning – Regulations – Rights – trade – technology - others WATER SECURITY Water: productive & destructive a source of production, health, growth & cooperation AND… a source of destruction, poverty and dispute Grey and Sadoff, World Bank ‘Water Security’ reliable availability of acceptable quantity & quality of water for production, livelihoods & health AND… acceptable level of risk to society of unpredictable waterrelated impacts 4. Water Infrastructure Investment Matters •Strong correlations between public capital investment and movements in private sector productivity •Investing in Managing Uncertainty Creates Platform for Growth •Ratio of non-structural/behavioral measures to structural measures matters: •If too high - extreme events can crack social system as leaders have no tools to respond •If too low - ecological costs are too high Myth of Soft Path = More Democratic Trends in Water Access: By 2015 will meet targets of 90% with access Trends in Sanitation: By 2015 only slightly more with access and will fall far short Water in a Changing World, The UN World Water Development Report 3, UNESCO, 2009 Average Income levels and irrigation intensity in India “Poverty is worst Polluter…” Gandhi China: 30 years •0 growth in Irrigation water use •Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares •Increase grain yield by 50% Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn Net effect: districts with: • < 10% of cropped area irrigated --- 69% below poverty line • > 50% of cropped area irrigated --- 26% below poverty line Briscoe, World Bank, 2000 Economy-wide impacts 3.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 -1.0 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 0.0 1979 Real GDP growth (%) 2.0 10.0 -2.0 -5.0 -3.0 Real GDP grow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) -10.0 -4.0 Years Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993 Ethiopia’s….limited ability to cope with droughts and floods….are estimated to cost the economy one-third of its growth potential 80 25 15 40 10 5 20 0 2000 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -4 0 ra in fa ll v a ria tio n a ro u n d th e m e a n -6 0 1999 1997 1998 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 -2 0 1983 0 1982 percentage 20 (IWMI, Water Policy Brief, Issue 31, 2009) 60 G D P g ro w th -8 0 -2 0 -2 5 -3 0 year Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000 Grey and Sadoff World Bank Variability in Rainfall (Meter) 15.0 Billion $ % GDP 700 14 600 Losses % 12 GDP 400 10 Economic Losses 300 8 200 6 100 4 0 2 0 Richest Nations Poorest Nations Disasters Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, In the Richest and Poorest Nations, 1985 – 99 (world watch 2001) Delli Priscoli and Guillermo Mendoza, USACE, IWR 2010.. Emerging Nations Figure 5 Benefits of Federal Projects (Damages Prevented) Accumulative Corps Expenditures (Principle plus O&M) Bill ions of Dolla rs (Adjusted to 1 99 9 us ing Construction Cost Inde x) $8 00 Billions of Dollars $7 00 $6 00 Accumula tive Benefits $5 00 $4 00 •Impairment to Human activity and Creativity is key; $3 00 00 • $2 not just # Trigger Events: (e.g. Damage % of GDP…) Accumula tive Ex penditures $1 00 1999 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 1961 1958 1955 1952 1949 1946 1943 1940 1937 1934 1931 Annual Benefits 1928 $0 Fiscal Year National Flood Damages Suffered 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Year 1991 1995 1983 1987 1975 1979 1967 1971 1959 1963 1951 1955 1943 1947 1935 1939 1927 1931 1919 1923 1911 1915 0.0 1903 1907 Percent of GNP 0.6 GAP - SE Anatolia REGIONWIDE CHANGES 1985-2000 1985 (%) RURAL WATER SUPPLY URBAN WATER SUPPLY RURAL ELECTRICITY VILLAGE ACCESS LITERACY INFANT MORTALITY (%0) LANDLESS POPULATION* 57 15 66 71 55 111 40 2000 (%) 60 65 99 98 69 60 ** 25 Turkey 2000 (%) 75 73 99 99 85.1 35.3 25 * Irrıgable areas ** 1995 figures Using Water to Achieve Operational Mega Nexus 5. Context: World Water Situation Some of the Gloomy Arithmetic of Water • 1.4 billion people lack safe water • 80% of diseases carried by water: 1 child every 8 seconds killed and 5-7 million people annually: $125 billion in workday losses/yr. • 50% of people lack adequate sanitation • 20% of freshwater species near extinction • 76% live in water stressed areas (less then 1000cm): most in politically unstable regions • Losing irrigated land by 30% in 2025 and 50% by 2050 • 50% of people will depend on world markets for food • Asia: Over two thirds of population live in areas where 80% of rainfall occurs in 20% of the year 75% of People Without Access to Safe Water Reside in 16 Countries Other countries, 284.1 Thailand, 10 China, 326 Philippines, 11.4 Turkey, 11.5 Tanzania, 12 Uganda, 12.8 Kenya, 13.9 Myanmar, 14 India, 168 Pakistan, 15 Vietnam, 19 Nigeria, 46 Brazil, 23.5 Congo, 30 Ethiopia, 55 Indonesia, 47.8 (numbers in millions) Source: The U.N. State of the World Population, 2004 40% of Worlds population lives on shared basins: or more than 50% of earth landmass Virtual water trade in Asia could reduce water use for irrigation by 12% VIRTUAL WATER INTERDEPENEDENCE WATER SECURITY Ground Water • A spectacular increase of groundwater development for irrigation has occurred in most arid and semiarid countries. It is a “silent Worldrevolution”. wide: • Probably, about 50land % of subsidence, the Draw downs, saltwater value of irrigated agriculture is costs, pollution intrusion, rising pumping obtained with groundwater but the volume of groundwater used is only a small fraction of the corresponding volume of surface water used for irrigation. Poor and Privatization • Of the 100 recent cases - 80% in Cochambamba Bolivia middle income countries • A few International companies Increased Urbanization 4-5 • The Poor pay far higher % of income: – $1/cm - $2.50/cm on average – In US we pay $.30 - $.80 on average – Connected poor pay $1/cm & unconnected $5.50-$16.50/cm! World Economic Forum 85%+ of renewable is Hydro •2 Billion People lack Electricity and electricity Demand is growing- Cheap Electricity a traditional key to economic development •Hydro Potential Used: OECD countries 70%, LA 35%, Asia 20%, Africa 6% TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION OF DISASTERS Type of water-related natural disasters, 1990-2001 Distribution of water-related disasters, 1990-2001 More than 2,200 major and minor water-related disasters occurred in the world between 1990 and 2001. Asia and Africa were the most affected continents, with floods accounting for half of these disasters. Extracted from the Executive Summary of the World Water Development report. CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). 2002. The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Brussels, Université Catholique de Louvain. 6. Climate Change - Energy – Water Mega Nexus Debate Adaptation vs. Mitigation Raise Ethical Issues in Water Policy Debate (E.G.s from Copenhagen) “You cannot say that because there is climate change that the developing World shouldn't grow…you are essentially saying, ..no more electricity to your house, close your factories, go back to the fields.” (C. Bhyhan, Center for Science and Environment New Delhi, 2009, in Wash Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009) “In India…almost half a million children die each year from water borne Diarrhea, providing access to basic services such as clean drinking water Is more pressing ten cutting emissions,… and to do so requires energy..” (Indian Minister - Wash Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009) “If as a result of technology, self denial and determination, you were to cut Your emissions by 50% -the moment you achieve it yourself, we will accept that cap.” (Ahluwalia, Policy Advisor, Government India, in Wash Post, B8, Nov. 22 2009) Recent Assessment of Climate Models How Accurate Are Global Climate Models? Regional trends in extreme events are not always captured by current models Factoring in Resiliency in water resources systems design and planning is still the It is difficult tosafest assessapproach! the significance of these discrepancies and to distinguish between model deficiencies and natural variability (CHRS -Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irving) Energy Water Nexus Debate Political •No matter stand on mitigation: water actions will be needed •Positive outlet for politicians •Do something which registers in generational memory Ethical Dilemma of Climate Change Policy and Water Analytical •Existing Tradition of and refined modeling to support IWRManxiety Climate, water security debates areprobabilistic raising public •GCM models cannot relateinadvertently to level of sub continental: About Change while denying adaptive means to to decisions needs of Water Managers cope with projected events; thus raising questions about the •Given uncertainty – already at 500 yr return rates ethics of adaptation vs. mitigation Moral •Need actions that affect source of fears in near future Economic •Fraction of Mitigation costs 8. Africa Africa’s colonial legacy: many international rivers 60+ basins More int’l rivers shared by 3 or more countries than any other continent most future water development on international rivers political complexity requires capacity/resources dispute constrains growth cooperation a major growth opportunity Dependence on Neighbouring States for River Inflows / Water Transfers Degree of Dependence on Neighbouring States 0% 0 - 10 % 11 - 24 % 25 - 49 % © Pete Ashton > 50 % N 0 500 Kilometres 1000 Water: a source of destruction & poverty, & dispute • • • • • • • Drought Flood & inundation Landslide Desertification Contamination Epidemic & disease Dispute, even conflict 2006: International Year of Deserts and Desertification The Daily Feb. 7, 2006& drought eachMonitor, year, desertification “The cause deathan tollestimated from the drought $42bn inwas lost also swelling fromproduction an upsurge in agricultural fighting between nomadic cattleherders over scant water & grazing Reuters, Feb. 20, 2006 People’s 11, 2006 resources ... Daily, MarchMarch could see many “Approximately 11 million people are moreMalawi killed”Cholera Oxfam,Outbreak Kenya threatened by starvation Djibouti, "we have cholera outbreaksinevery year Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and during the rainy season" - Habib Tanzania… Rain is unlikely before April” Somanje, Preventive Health Services. 46 people have died from the recorded 3,852 cases. The three menaces to Africa’s stability and peace: Climate Change, natural resources degradation and low infrastructure Increase in storms and flood disasters Need for Operational Mega Nexus Ousman Dione World Bank Africa’s Natural Legacy: Massive climate variability with vulnerability to droughts Median rainfall and standard deviation USA - SSA 1200 Risk of recurrent drought standard deviation 1000 SSA USA 800 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 median rainfall % Much higher rainfall variability than USA Significant correlation between rainfall variability & GDP Bubble Size = GDP per capita GDP and Rainfall Variability (Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall) 1.8 1.6 High variability 1.4 1.2 Monthly 1 Rainfall Variability 0.8 Most Sub Saharan Africa countries face more challenging climate conditions High mean 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 50 Wealthy nations share a small window of favorable climate (low variability; moderate rainfall) 100 150 200 250 300 Mean Annual Rainfall After Brown, 2007 Africa’s gap in meeting basic water supply and sanitation Population (million) Water Supply Coverage in Africa Africa’s MDG Challenge 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 188 368 275 152 36 235 190 40 175 Rural 2000 350 175 Urban 2000 Served 2000 178 350 175 Total 2000 Rural 2015 Added 2000-2015 175 Urban 2015 Not Served Total 2015 Africa’s gap in developing and modernizing its irrigation potential: South Africa, Somalia (2) <25%; Mali, Sudan, Uganda, Botswana, Malawi, Zimbabwe (6) 25-50%; Rest >50% Ousman Dione, World Bank 1,800 2108 (United States consumption - 11994 kWh/yr/capita) Africa’s infrastructure gap: electricity 1,600 1,400 900 World Average Morocco 114 Senegal 29 Burkina Faso 204 38 Uganda Ghana 55 Kenya Ethiopia Nigeria Cameroon 0 Tanzania 126 200 21 400 85 600 430 581 800 Egypt 1,000 500 kWh/capita-year minimum consumption for reasonable quality of life Algeria 1,200 184 Elec consumption (kWh/yr)/Capita 2,000 Hydropower potential tapped % of potential tapped Potential and actual hydropower generation in different regions 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% N America Europe S America Asia (including China) Africa 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Economically-feasible potential (millions of GWh/year) 4.0 Africa and Europe: Hydropower comparison Pop. Mill. GNP/cap HP pot. $ MW HP dev. Elec./ca CO2 MW p em. kWh/yr ton/c/yr Ethiopia 61 105 45,000 700 22 0.00 Kenya 29 361 1,600 700 106 0.05 Rwanda 8 241 100 27 26 0.00 Tanzania 33 267 3,200 557 56 0.01 Uganda 22 298 2,800 278 38 0.00 Austria 8 23,333 18,300 11,700 6,457 1.51 France 59 22,128 26,000 25,200 6,539 4.32 Germany 82 22,430 8,000 5,600 5,963 4.50 Italy 58 18,808 22,800 15,267 4,732 2.98 5 36,889 47,200 27,873 24,422 3.23 Norway Ousmani Dione, World Bank Africa’s infrastructure gap: Lack of water storage 788 900 370 307 400 Burkina Faso 500 363 600 Namibia North America: 6150 m3/person Australia: 4729 m3/person China: 2486 m3/person 142 Tanzania 11 100 47 114 200 139 300 Algeria storage / capita 700 492 800 World Bank South Africa Artificial storage – m3 per person Morocco Nigeria Kenya Ethiopia Lesotho 0 Adaptive Security Matrix 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Namibia Congo DR Angola Mozambique Zambia Adaptively Secure Adaptively Insecure Botswana Tanzania Malawi Eritrea Sudan Swaziland Uganda Ethiopia Kenya Burundi Lesotho Zimbabwe Egypt Mauritius South Africa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Second-Order Resource Availability Expressed as GNP PPP for 1998 in US$/cap/yr-1 X 103 © Turton & Warner, 2002. Existing Hydraulic Infrastructure in Africa (Engines of Socio/Economic Prosperity) Looks like New Day in Southern Africa: …Over allocations of water – new demands that will not go away – must shift use of water – new reallocating mechanisms needed to find highest value uses – (e.g. markets - trading – technology - others) Southern Africa not alone; others struggle with same problems; Hydrology and maintaining socio/economic prosperity: Prices not reflecting scarcity – need to shift demand curve reallocate: •California and U.S. South West •South Australia and Murray Darling •China North •others Ashton in Turton et. al. 2008 Africa: Hydraulic Infrastructure Democracies in Africa Political Economy of Water Investment as Platforms for Growth?? Economist, March 31st – April 6th, 2012, p 57 Dead Aid : Why Aid is not Working, by Dambisa Moyo Last 50 years $ 1 Trillion transferred in Aid to Africa: 30 years ago Malawi, Burundi, Burkino Faso higher per capita then then China (p.x Moyo). Aid = Dependency and corruption: Africa needs •Direct investment different FDI instruments such as bonds and infrastructure; •China almost $ 900 Billion in FDI since 2004; •2004 - Chinese FDI = $900 million: US FDI = $20 million; •Chinese are bartering energy for infrastructure – equity investment. (p100-113, Moyo) FDI to Developing = $400 billion: 2006 - $37 billion in Aid – $17 billion in FDI 2007 - Africa 5% of World Capital Flows; Today 1% (Moyo p,98) As African aid African growth poverty From 1970s social services/poverty from 5% to >50 % of aid (p.47 Moyo) Current Africans surveyed view Chinese influence more positive then U.S.(p. 120 Moyo) 9. Conclusions Finding the operational Nexus Region Specific Trade-offs Trade-offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values: Patterns Change over time: Depend on: •Socio- Economic Development • Political Culture •Geography (wet, dry, variability) Water is the constraint that forces choices; trade-offs – integrative “jump start” Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power •Often defined as technical terms and political is left out •BUT- Cannot achieve integration w/o political Processes to allocate water are means to achieve operational NEXUS: •Politics – markets – water banking - RBO’s – Infrastructure - Planning – Regulations – Defining Rights – trade - others Water management (and water reform) is ALWAYS political….. Ancient Chinese Characters describing water management + river + = dike = Political order 治水 治国 Only one who can govern water, He can govern a country. One who wants to govern his country Should govern water first.