Plenary Session 2 Presentation

Report
Water, Energy, Food Nexus: A
Perspective Through Eyes of
Water Policy
Johannesburg, April 20, 2012
by Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli
Institute for Water Resources
US Army Corps of Engineers
Governor World Water Council
Editor in Chief Water Policy
priscoli@erols.com
Water Security and Social Stability:
Worldwide Growing Concerns for Mega Nexus
e.g. Recent U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment
During the next 10 years, many countries………….will
experience water problems—shortages, poor water
quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state
failure, increase regional tensions, …………….Between
now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up
with demand absent more effective management of water
resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key
countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a
risk to global food markets and hobbling economic
growth.
.( Global Water Security U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT-ICA 2012-08, 2 February 2012)
By 2050 $63 trillion in Global GDP could be at risk because of water stress
IFPR in Tapping Water Markets, by Anderson, et. al., RFF Press,2012 p 159
.
How to allocate and reallocate among the sector uses?
Which sector has priority? Why?
Water - Energy - Food Linkages
(Samples from World Economic Forum Initiative)
Water essential for all the core drivers of economic growth
Increase in energy demand by 40% using current system means
increase of freshwater needs by 165%
If the Ogallala Aquifer runs dry, more then $20 billion worth of
food and fiber will vanish from the World's markets….
James Little Saving the Ogallala Aquifer, Scientific American 19, March 32-29
Shale extraction, concentrated solar plants demand large increase
freshwater use
Replacing 5-6% of energy consumption with bio fuels could double
water withdrawals for agriculture
In U.S. 13 % electricity is to move, treat, and heat water.
California’s water-related energy uses 19% of the state’s electricity,
30 percent of natural gas, and 88 billion gallons of diesel fuel/yr
With projected Population growing to 9 Billion –
do we have enough water to feed ourselves?
UN Water 2007
1. Looking at WEF Mega Nexus through a Water Policy IWRM Lens
Finding the operational Nexus
Region Specific
Trade-offs
Trade-offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values:
Patterns Change over time: Depend on:
Center
of Allocations Debates
•Socio- Economic
Development
• Political Culture - Accountability – Legitimacy
Efficiencies
•Geography (wet, dry, variability)
•Available techologyEquity - Fairness
Water is the constraint
thatSocial
forces choices;
trade-offs – integrative “jump start”
Macro
Values/Goals
Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power
•Often defined as technical terms and political is left out
•BUT- Cannot achieve integration w/o political
Processes to allocate water are means to achieve NEXUS integration/success:
•Politics – Markets – water banking -RBO’s - Infrastructure - Planning –
Regulations – Defining Rights – trade – technology - others
Logic of Water Org’s often not logic of legal Org’s:
History – Mega Nexus concerns not new to Water Policy
Mega Nexus and Water Policy central to Growth of Civilizations
•Early Humans adapted by moving as climate changed
Technical Interventions allow Migratory to Sedentary
Creativity and innovation
•Canals for irrigation – routes for boats and more trade +++
•19th cen. Disease spurs Public Water Supply Systems
Markets - Trading in South Australia
During 6 year + drought Water use overall was cut back 70%
agricultural production value dropped only 30% (WSJ, 2/28/12 A8)
Interstate Compact Commission Interstate Commission for Potomac (ICPRB)
16 dams originally planned; actual 1 large and 1 minor dam
by best use of non structural approaches & coordination of States through ICPRB;
system yield up by 50% - in stream needs and quality vs. 45% with dams
China: Increase of Irrigation Efficiencies 30 years
•0 growth in Irrigation water use
•Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares
•Increase grain yield by 50%
(Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn)
Political Cultural Drivers of Change
• Water Reforms most advanced
where see Macro Economic reform
open markets, less corruption, more
participation
• water crises
• macro economic crises (Mexico,
India…)
• political restructuring (SA- human
rights…)
• liberalization policies (Chile, Brazil,
China…)
• meeting EU standards (Spain, Poland,
Hungary…)
• international lenders and donors
Birth & Growth of the U.S.
Water Ways & Establishment of National Federal
Interventions Over Interstate Issues
1808: Gallatin Report
Waterways to be used for:
Building Political Unity and Nation
National Defense
Economic Development
1824: GIBBONS VS. OGDEN
Marshal
Gibbons
Ogden
(Estbl. Federal Powers vs. States)
Claims are said to be repugnant–
1st. To that clause in the constitution which
authorizes Congress to regulate commerce.
2d. To that which authorizes Congress to
promote the progress of science and useful arts.
1920’s -“308” Reports: Congress Authorizes USACE do Comp.
assessments of all major rivers of the US
In 1 Generation TVA a Region Poverty to Prosperity
, “a corporation clothed with the power of
government but possessed of the flexibility and
initiative of a private enterprise.” (FDR, 1933)
TVA dams to harness the region’s rivers to control
floods,
improve navigation,
and TVA’s
to generated
But attempts
for 7 more
fail: electricity.
HellsSubsidies
Canyon– Dam:
Reasserts
agriculture
Cross
integrations
of power
production,priority use
Small hydro
largemalaria
MOP prevention,
navigation,
floodvs.
control,
reforestation,
or erosion
control, agriculture
States vs. Federal
Gov
productivity…….
No constituency for Regions or semi autonomous Regional Entities
with comprehensive power for MOP
“Power is really a secondary matter. What we are doing
there is taking a watershed with about three and a
half million people in it, almost all of them rural, and
we are trying to make a different type of citizen out of
them from what they would be under their present conditions.”
(FDR, Press Conference, Warm Springs, Ga, November 23, 1934)
How do we approach the need for integration on such scale?
DANGER: Political implications in Holistic Comprehensive Approaches
Philosopher of Science Karl Popper (in 1944) cautions:
“Holistic or Utopian social engineering….aims at reforming
the whole of society in accordance with a definite plan…
extending the power of the state…”
“Piecemeal engineering …concerned with the whole…tries to achieve ideals by
small adjustments and readjustments…to continually improve…”
“Holistic methods turn out to be impossible…the greater the changes… the greater
The Unintended Consequences…..forcing piecemeal improvisation…
unplanned planning….”
“Piecemeal engineering ….attacks problem with open mind….for it has decided
Adaptation-adaptive
management
becomes
the democratic
beforehand that .. reconstruction
is possible
and necessary…(that
humannorms.
uncertainties exist)”
Holistic engineering deal with uncertainty of human factor by controlling it through
institutional means……. (Popper, Piecemeal social Engineering, in Popper Selections, p 308-311)
2. DEFINING WATER AND SECURITY
WATER SECURITY: BIG “S”AND SMALL “s”
Interdependence Vulnerability
or Flexibility?
The Big “S”: Conflict, War, Large Scale Violence
•Water as Independent variable, cause of war – conflict
•Water as Tool of War – social Violence
•Eco – Shocks and Social Unrest
The Small “s”: Water: Means to Other Social Ends
Our English Dictionaries define security as:
“ freedom from danger, from fear or anxiety, from want or
deprivation.”
This is the history of humanity’s management of water:
•trying to be sure we have good water, in the right quantity at the
proper time and place.
•Predicting floods, reserving sources for droughts, using water to
help us generate wealth and avoid deprivation.
Defining Water Stress and “s”
Defining Water Stress: Access vs. Scarcity vs. Stress
Most People live:
Far distance from water sources;
Where most water comes in only a few months of the years.
North & Central America:
Asia:
South America:
Europe:
Africa:
15% of Water – 8% of population
36% of Water – 60% of population
26% of water – 6% of population
11% of water – 13% of population
11% of water – 13% of population
(Zimmerman in T.L. Anderson, Tapping Water markets, RFF Press, 2012 P. 4)
Access to What?
Asia: 35% of waste water is treated
Latin America: 14% of waste water is treated
Africa: 1% of waste water is treated
(T.L. Anderson, Tapping Water markets, RFF Press, 2012, P. 5)
Defining Water Stress and the small “s”:
Summary on Water Indices
•Hard to determine whether water is truly scarce in the physical sense at
a global scale (a supply problem)
•Hard to determine if it is available but should be used better (a demand
problem). Most widely used indicator, the Falkenmark indicator,
does not help to explain the true nature of water scarcity.
•The more complex indicators are not widely applied because data are
lacking to apply them and the definitions are not intuitive.
•Water is (p) physically scarce in densely populated arid areas, Central and
West Asia, and North Africa,
•Scarcity at a national scale has as much to do with the development of the
demand as the availability of the supply.
, ,
International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka
Frank R. Rijsberman
3. MAIN THESIS
Water Actions as Key Societal
Adaptation Tools
Investment in allocation means (e.g. hard and soft Multi-Purpose
Water Infrastructure)
Water Security (small s)
Minimum Platform for Growth
Internal Stability
and Security (large S)
Strategic
Security
WATER IS MORE THEN ACCESS
• Many uses: irrigation, floods damage reductions,
drought, ecological flows, hydropower, energy
coolants, navigation, recreation
• Multiple Purpose uses Allows for Jointly Creating
Benefits (both off and on) the water vs. Fighting
Over Allocation of Flows – Key to Water Venue of
Dialog
• Water’s Tradition of Expanding the Negotiating Pie
vs. Reallocating Limited Pie:
– Absolute vs. Relative Scarcity; Redistribution vs. Relative Deprivation
– Interest/Needs Based Negotiations - Approaches
– Virtual Water Movement
Mechanisms to allocate and reallocate among water uses
• Water More Humanity’s Learning Ground for
are Keys
to Meg
Nexus:of War
Building Community
then
Generator
RBO’s - Infrastructure - Markets - Planning – Regulations –
Rights – trade – technology - others
WATER SECURITY
Water:
productive & destructive
a source of production,
health, growth &
cooperation
AND…
a source of destruction,
poverty and dispute
Grey and Sadoff, World Bank
‘Water Security’
reliable availability of
acceptable quantity & quality of
water for production,
livelihoods & health
AND…
acceptable level of risk
to society of
unpredictable waterrelated impacts
4. Water Infrastructure
Investment Matters
•Strong correlations between
public capital investment and
movements in private sector productivity
•Investing in Managing Uncertainty Creates
Platform for Growth
•Ratio of non-structural/behavioral measures to
structural measures matters:
•If too high - extreme events can crack social
system as leaders have no tools to respond
•If too low - ecological costs are too high
Myth of Soft Path = More Democratic
Trends in Water Access: By 2015 will
meet targets of 90% with access
Trends in Sanitation: By 2015 only slightly
more with access and will fall far short
Water in a Changing World, The UN World Water Development Report 3, UNESCO, 2009
Average Income levels and irrigation intensity in India
“Poverty is worst Polluter…” Gandhi
China: 30 years
•0 growth in Irrigation water use
•Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares
•Increase grain yield by 50%
Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn
Net effect: districts with:
• < 10% of cropped area irrigated --- 69% below poverty line
• > 50% of cropped area irrigated --- 26% below poverty line
Briscoe, World Bank, 2000
Economy-wide impacts
3.0
1.0
5.0
0.0
-1.0
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0.0
1979
Real GDP growth (%)
2.0
10.0
-2.0
-5.0
-3.0
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
-10.0
-4.0
Years
Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993
Ethiopia’s….limited ability to cope with droughts and floods….are
estimated to cost the economy one-third of its growth potential
80
25
15
40
10
5
20
0
2000
-5
-1 0
-1 5
-4 0
ra in fa ll v a ria tio n a ro u n d th e m e a n
-6 0
1999
1997
1998
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
-2 0
1983
0
1982
percentage
20
(IWMI, Water Policy Brief, Issue 31, 2009)
60
G D P g ro w th
-8 0
-2 0
-2 5
-3 0
year
Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000
Grey and Sadoff World Bank
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
15.0
Billion $
% GDP
700
14
600
Losses %
12 GDP
400
10 Economic
Losses
300
8
200
6
100
4
0
2
0
Richest Nations
Poorest Nations
Disasters Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, In the
Richest and Poorest Nations, 1985 – 99 (world watch 2001)
Delli Priscoli and Guillermo Mendoza, USACE, IWR 2010..
Emerging Nations
Figure 5
Benefits of Federal Projects (Damages Prevented)
Accumulative Corps Expenditures (Principle plus O&M)
Bill ions of Dolla rs (Adjusted to 1 99 9 us ing Construction Cost Inde x)
$8 00
Billions of Dollars
$7 00
$6 00
Accumula tive Benefits
$5 00
$4 00
•Impairment
to Human activity and Creativity is key;
$3 00
00
• $2
not
just # Trigger Events: (e.g. Damage % of GDP…)
Accumula tive Ex penditures
$1 00
1999
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
1949
1946
1943
1940
1937
1934
1931
Annual Benefits
1928
$0
Fiscal Year
National Flood Damages Suffered
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Year
1991
1995
1983
1987
1975
1979
1967
1971
1959
1963
1951
1955
1943
1947
1935
1939
1927
1931
1919
1923
1911
1915
0.0
1903
1907
Percent of GNP
0.6
GAP - SE Anatolia
REGIONWIDE CHANGES 1985-2000
1985
(%)







RURAL WATER SUPPLY
URBAN WATER SUPPLY
RURAL ELECTRICITY
VILLAGE ACCESS
LITERACY
INFANT MORTALITY (%0)
LANDLESS POPULATION*
57
15
66
71
55
111
40
2000
(%)
60
65
99
98
69
60
** 25
Turkey 2000
(%)
75
73
99
99
85.1
35.3
25
* Irrıgable areas
** 1995 figures
Using Water to Achieve Operational Mega Nexus
5. Context: World Water Situation
Some of the Gloomy Arithmetic
of Water
• 1.4 billion people lack safe water
• 80% of diseases carried by water: 1 child every 8
seconds killed and 5-7 million people annually: $125
billion in workday losses/yr.
• 50% of people lack adequate sanitation
• 20% of freshwater species near extinction
• 76% live in water stressed areas (less then 1000cm):
most in politically unstable regions
• Losing irrigated land by 30% in 2025 and 50% by 2050
• 50% of people will depend on world markets for food
• Asia: Over two thirds of population live in areas where
80% of rainfall occurs in 20% of the year
75% of People Without Access to Safe Water
Reside in 16 Countries
Other countries,
284.1
Thailand, 10
China, 326
Philippines, 11.4
Turkey, 11.5
Tanzania, 12
Uganda, 12.8
Kenya, 13.9
Myanmar, 14
India, 168
Pakistan, 15
Vietnam, 19
Nigeria, 46
Brazil, 23.5
Congo, 30
Ethiopia, 55
Indonesia, 47.8
(numbers in millions)
Source: The U.N. State of the
World Population, 2004
40% of Worlds population lives on shared
basins: or more than 50% of earth landmass
Virtual water trade in Asia could reduce water use for irrigation by 12%
VIRTUAL WATER
INTERDEPENEDENCE
WATER SECURITY
Ground Water
• A spectacular increase of
groundwater development for
irrigation has occurred in most
arid and semiarid countries. It is
a “silent
Worldrevolution”.
wide:
• Probably,
about 50land
% of subsidence,
the
Draw downs,
saltwater
value
of irrigated
agriculture
is costs, pollution
intrusion,
rising
pumping
obtained with groundwater but
the volume of groundwater used
is only a small fraction of the
corresponding volume of surface
water used for irrigation.
Poor and Privatization
• Of the 100 recent cases - 80% in
Cochambamba Bolivia
middle income countries
• A few International companies Increased Urbanization
4-5
• The Poor pay far higher % of
income:
– $1/cm - $2.50/cm on average
– In US we pay $.30 - $.80 on
average
– Connected poor pay $1/cm &
unconnected $5.50-$16.50/cm!
World Economic Forum 85%+ of renewable is Hydro
•2 Billion People lack Electricity and electricity Demand is growing- Cheap
Electricity a traditional key to economic development
•Hydro Potential Used: OECD countries 70%, LA 35%, Asia 20%, Africa 6%
TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION OF DISASTERS
Type of water-related natural
disasters, 1990-2001
Distribution of water-related
disasters, 1990-2001
More than 2,200 major and minor water-related disasters occurred in the
world between 1990 and 2001. Asia and Africa were the most affected
continents, with floods accounting for half of these disasters.
Extracted from the Executive Summary of the World Water Development report. CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). 2002.
The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Brussels, Université Catholique de Louvain.
6. Climate Change - Energy – Water Mega Nexus Debate
Adaptation vs. Mitigation Raise Ethical Issues in Water Policy Debate
(E.G.s from Copenhagen)
“You cannot say that because there is climate change that
the developing World shouldn't grow…you are essentially
saying, ..no more electricity to your house, close your
factories, go back to the fields.” (C. Bhyhan, Center for Science and
Environment New Delhi, 2009, in Wash Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009)
“In India…almost half a million children die each year from water borne
Diarrhea, providing access to basic services such as clean drinking water
Is more pressing ten cutting emissions,… and to do so requires energy..”
(Indian Minister - Wash Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009)
“If as a result of technology, self denial and determination, you were to cut
Your emissions by 50% -the moment you achieve it yourself, we will accept
that cap.” (Ahluwalia, Policy Advisor, Government India, in Wash Post, B8, Nov. 22 2009)
Recent Assessment of Climate Models
How Accurate Are Global Climate Models?
 Regional trends in extreme events
are not always captured by current
models
Factoring in Resiliency in water resources systems
design and planning
is still the
 It is difficult
tosafest
assessapproach!
the
significance of these discrepancies
and to distinguish between model
deficiencies and natural variability
(CHRS -Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irving)
Energy Water Nexus Debate
Political
•No matter stand on mitigation: water actions will be needed
•Positive outlet for politicians
•Do something which registers in generational memory
Ethical Dilemma of Climate Change Policy and Water
Analytical
•Existing
Tradition
of and
refined
modeling
to support
IWRManxiety
Climate,
water
security
debates
areprobabilistic
raising public
•GCM
models
cannot
relateinadvertently
to level of sub continental:
About
Change
while
denying adaptive means to
to decisions needs of Water Managers
cope
with projected events; thus raising questions about the
•Given uncertainty – already at 500 yr return rates
ethics of adaptation vs. mitigation
Moral
•Need actions that affect source of fears in near future
Economic
•Fraction of Mitigation costs
8. Africa
Africa’s colonial legacy:
many international rivers
 60+ basins
 More int’l rivers shared
by 3 or more countries
than any other continent
 most future water development
on international rivers
 political complexity
 requires capacity/resources
 dispute constrains growth
 cooperation a major growth opportunity
Dependence
on
Neighbouring
States for
River Inflows
/ Water
Transfers
Degree of Dependence on
Neighbouring States
0%
0 - 10 %
11 - 24 %
25 - 49 %
© Pete Ashton
> 50 %
N
0
500
Kilometres
1000
Water: a source of
destruction & poverty, &
dispute
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Drought
Flood & inundation
Landslide
Desertification
Contamination
Epidemic & disease
Dispute, even conflict
2006: International Year of Deserts and
Desertification
The Daily
Feb. 7, 2006& drought
eachMonitor,
year, desertification
“The cause
deathan
tollestimated
from the drought
$42bn inwas
lost
also swelling
fromproduction
an upsurge in
agricultural
fighting between nomadic cattleherders over scant water & grazing
Reuters,
Feb. 20, 2006
People’s
11, 2006
resources
... Daily,
MarchMarch
could see
many
“Approximately
11
million
people are
moreMalawi
killed”Cholera
Oxfam,Outbreak
Kenya
threatened
by starvation
Djibouti,
"we
have cholera
outbreaksinevery
year
Ethiopia,
Kenya,
Somalia
and
during
the rainy
season"
- Habib
Tanzania…
Rain is unlikely
before April”
Somanje,
Preventive
Health Services.
46
people have died from the recorded
3,852 cases.
The three menaces to Africa’s stability and peace:
Climate Change, natural resources degradation and
low infrastructure
Increase in storms and flood disasters
Need for Operational Mega Nexus
Ousman Dione World Bank
Africa’s Natural Legacy: Massive climate variability
with vulnerability to droughts
Median rainfall and standard deviation USA - SSA
1200
Risk of recurrent
drought
standard deviation
1000
SSA
USA
800
600
400
200
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
median rainfall %
Much higher rainfall variability than USA
Significant correlation between rainfall
variability & GDP
Bubble Size = GDP per capita
GDP and Rainfall Variability
(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)
1.8
1.6
High variability
1.4
1.2
Monthly
1
Rainfall
Variability 0.8
Most Sub Saharan Africa countries
face more challenging climate
conditions
High mean
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
50
Wealthy nations share a small
window of favorable climate
(low variability; moderate rainfall)
100
150
200
250
300
Mean Annual Rainfall
After Brown, 2007
Africa’s gap in
meeting basic
water supply and
sanitation
Population (million)
Water Supply
Coverage in Africa
Africa’s
MDG Challenge
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
188
368
275
152
36
235
190
40
175
Rural
2000
350
175
Urban
2000
Served 2000
178
350
175
Total
2000
Rural
2015
Added 2000-2015
175
Urban
2015
Not Served
Total
2015
Africa’s gap in
developing and
modernizing its
irrigation
potential:
South Africa, Somalia (2)
<25%;
Mali, Sudan, Uganda,
Botswana, Malawi,
Zimbabwe (6) 25-50%;
Rest >50%
Ousman Dione, World Bank
1,800
2108
(United States consumption - 11994 kWh/yr/capita)
Africa’s
infrastructure gap:
electricity
1,600
1,400
900
World Average
Morocco
114
Senegal
29
Burkina Faso
204
38
Uganda
Ghana
55
Kenya
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Cameroon
0
Tanzania
126
200
21
400
85
600
430
581
800
Egypt
1,000
500 kWh/capita-year minimum consumption
for reasonable quality of life
Algeria
1,200
184
Elec consumption (kWh/yr)/Capita
2,000
Hydropower
potential tapped
% of potential tapped
Potential and actual hydropower generation in
different regions
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
N America
Europe
S America
Asia (including China)
Africa
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Economically-feasible potential (millions of GWh/year)
4.0
Africa and Europe:
Hydropower comparison
Pop.
Mill.
GNP/cap HP pot.
$
MW
HP dev. Elec./ca
CO2
MW
p
em.
kWh/yr ton/c/yr
Ethiopia
61
105
45,000
700
22
0.00
Kenya
29
361
1,600
700
106
0.05
Rwanda
8
241
100
27
26
0.00
Tanzania
33
267
3,200
557
56
0.01
Uganda
22
298
2,800
278
38
0.00
Austria
8
23,333
18,300
11,700
6,457
1.51
France
59
22,128
26,000
25,200
6,539
4.32
Germany
82
22,430
8,000
5,600
5,963
4.50
Italy
58
18,808
22,800
15,267
4,732
2.98
5
36,889
47,200
27,873
24,422
3.23
Norway
Ousmani Dione, World Bank
Africa’s infrastructure gap: Lack of water storage
788
900
370
307
400
Burkina Faso
500
363
600
Namibia
North America: 6150 m3/person
Australia: 4729 m3/person
China: 2486 m3/person
142
Tanzania
11
100
47
114
200
139
300
Algeria
storage / capita
700
492
800
World Bank
South Africa
Artificial storage – m3 per person
Morocco
Nigeria
Kenya
Ethiopia
Lesotho
0
Adaptive Security Matrix
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Namibia
Congo DR
Angola
Mozambique
Zambia
Adaptively Secure
Adaptively Insecure
Botswana
Tanzania
Malawi
Eritrea
Sudan
Swaziland
Uganda
Ethiopia
Kenya
Burundi
Lesotho
Zimbabwe
Egypt
Mauritius
South Africa
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Second-Order Resource Availability Expressed as GNP PPP for
1998 in US$/cap/yr-1 X 103
© Turton & Warner, 2002.
Existing Hydraulic Infrastructure in Africa
(Engines of Socio/Economic Prosperity)
Looks like New Day in Southern Africa:
…Over allocations of water – new demands that will not go away
– must shift use of water – new reallocating mechanisms
needed to find highest value uses –
(e.g. markets - trading – technology - others)
Southern Africa not alone; others struggle with same problems;
Hydrology and maintaining socio/economic prosperity:
Prices not reflecting scarcity – need to shift demand curve reallocate:
•California and U.S. South West
•South Australia and Murray Darling
•China North
•others
Ashton in Turton et. al. 2008
Africa: Hydraulic Infrastructure
Democracies in Africa
Political Economy of Water Investment
as Platforms for Growth??
Economist, March 31st – April 6th, 2012, p 57
Dead Aid : Why Aid is not Working, by Dambisa Moyo
Last 50 years $ 1 Trillion transferred in Aid to Africa: 30 years ago Malawi,
Burundi, Burkino Faso higher per capita then then China (p.x Moyo).
Aid = Dependency and corruption: Africa needs
•Direct investment different FDI instruments such as bonds and
infrastructure;
•China almost $ 900 Billion in FDI since 2004;
•2004 - Chinese FDI = $900 million: US FDI = $20 million;
•Chinese are bartering energy for infrastructure – equity investment. (p100-113, Moyo)
FDI to Developing = $400 billion:
2006 - $37 billion in Aid – $17 billion in FDI
2007 - Africa 5% of World Capital Flows; Today 1% (Moyo p,98)
As African aid African growth poverty
From 1970s social services/poverty from 5% to >50 % of aid (p.47 Moyo)
Current Africans surveyed view
Chinese influence more positive then U.S.(p. 120 Moyo)
9. Conclusions
Finding the operational Nexus
Region Specific
Trade-offs
Trade-offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values:
Patterns Change over time: Depend on:
•Socio- Economic Development
• Political Culture
•Geography (wet, dry, variability)
Water is the constraint that forces choices; trade-offs – integrative “jump start”
Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power
•Often defined as technical terms and political is left out
•BUT- Cannot achieve integration w/o political
Processes to allocate water are means to achieve operational NEXUS:
•Politics – markets – water banking - RBO’s – Infrastructure - Planning –
Regulations – Defining Rights – trade - others
Water management (and water reform) is ALWAYS
political…..
Ancient Chinese Characters describing water
management
+
river
+
=
dike
=
Political
order
治水 治国
Only one who can govern water,
He can govern a country.
One who wants to govern his country
Should govern water first.

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