Emission Control Update - Northeast Texas Air Care

Report
Emission Controls Affecting Northeast Texas
Presentation to the NETAC
Policy and Technical Committees
Sue Kemball-Cook, Krish Vijayaraghavan, Allison DenBleyker and Greg Yarwood
June 13, 2013
[email protected]
Template
Impact of Local Emissions on Northeast Texas Ozone
Longview Ozone Impacts
Tyler Ozone Impacts
• CAMx modeling results from June, 2006 episode
• Largest ozone impacts from elevated point sources, onroad mobile, off-road mobile, well-head compressors
• Karnack similar to Tyler
2
Federal Emission Control Programs Affecting
Northeast Texas
• Overview of programs that affect Northeast Texas
emissions source categories that have largest impact
on local ozone
– EGU NOx/SOx control programs
– New Source Performance Standards affecting oil and gas
sources
– Tier 4 regulations for off-road mobile sources
– Proposed Tier 3 regulations for on-road mobile sources
• Additional federal and Texas regulations apply (e.g.
East Texas Combustion Rule)
3
Federal Control Programs Affecting EGUs
• Good Neighbor provision of Clean Air Act requires
EPA and states to address transport of air
pollution
– 2005: Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)
– 2011: Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)
4
Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)
• Cap-and-trade system for
achieving SO2 and NOx
reductions
– 2 step phase-in for NOx: 2009
and 2015
• A state must either:
– meet its emission budget by
requiring EGUs to participate in
an EPA-administered cap and
trade program, or
– meet its emissions budget
through measures of the state’s
choosing
• In 2008, D.C. Circuit Court of
Figure from http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/cair/index.html
Appeals vacated CAIR, then
remanded it back to EPA,
leaving the Rule in place until a
replacement could be issued
5
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)
• Developed in
response to 2008
CAIR decision
• NOx/SOx reductions
• Vacated by D.C.
Circuit Court in
August, 2012
– Litigation is on-going
– CAIR remains in
place
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Oil and Gas Sources: NSPS Subpart OOOO
• New Source Performance Standards apply to new,
modified, or reconstructed major and minor
emission sources
• EPA promulgated the Subpart OOOO rules in April
2012
• Controls VOC and SO2 at new and existing oil and
natural gas wells and gas plants
• Mandatory controls for well site sources that were
previously unregulated
– Well completions, pneumatic devices, condensate tanks
and dehydrators
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NSPS OOOO Requirements
• Reduced emission
completions (green
completions )
required after
6/1/2015.
– Flaring allowed
until then
• Well site
compressors and
compressor stations
are controlled
through other
regulations
8
Stationary Engines: NSPS JJJJ
• NSPS Subpart JJJJ regulates NOx emissions from new and
modified engines with a wide range of horsepower ratings
– NOx emission standards phased in over time, eventually
requiring that all engines meet a 1.0 g/bhp-hr NOx emissions
rate
• Some states have implemented more stringent regulations
(e.g. the East Texas Combustion Rule)
– Outside these areas, NSPS Subpart JJJJ remains the primary
regulatory control on compressor engines
• Subpart JJJJ addresses only new and modified engines
– Existing gas development areas may continue use of engines
that do not meet the Subpart JJJJ requirements
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Tier 4 Standards for Non-Road Diesel Engines
• EPA emissions standards for new
•
non-road diesel engines: HC,
NOx, CO and PM
Implemented in tiers, with
different standards and start
years for different engine power
ratings
– Tier 4 emission standards phased
in over 2008-2015
• Over time, off-road fleet turns
•
Graphic from
http://www.cumminspower.com/www
/literature/technicalpapers/PT-9010-Tier4EmissionRegImpact.pdf
over and higher-emitting engines
are replaced with lower-emitting
engines
Tier 4 standards require that
emissions of PM and NOx be
further reduced by about 90%
– Exhaust aftertreatment
 Reduction in fuel sulfur allows use
of control technologies such as
catalysts
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Proposed Tier 3 Rule for On-Road Mobile Sources
• Reduce exhaust and evaporative emissions through more stringent
emission standards for on-road LDVs, MDVs and some HDVs (all fuel
types) and lower sulfur in gasoline
– 10 ppm sulfur (annual average) compared to 30 ppm average in Tier 2
• New standards phase in 2017 to 2025.
Exhaust
Pollutant
NMOG+NOx
Particulate Matter
Emission Standard (mg/mi)
Vehicles and Test procedure
Old (Tier 2)
Tier 3
160
30
Light and Medium Duty <10,000 lbs. GVWRa; FTP test
100
50
Light and Medium Duty <10,000 lbs. GVWR; SFTP test
278
178
Heavy Trucks 8,501-10,000 lbs. GVWR; FTP test
451
247
Heavy Trucks 10,001-14,000 lbs. GVWR; FTP test
None
Variedb
10
3
N/A
10 or 20c
Light and Medium Duty <10,000 lbs. GVWR; US06 cycle
N/A
8 or 10c
Heavy Trucks 8,501-14,000 lbs. GVWR; FTP test
None
Variedb
Heavy Trucks 8,501-14,000; SFTP test
Heavy Trucks 8,501-14,000; SFTP test
Light and Medium Duty <10,000 lbs. GVWR; FTP test
a Gross
Vehicle Weight Rating
First-time heavy-duty standards on the SFTP cycle vary by vehicle class and power-to-weight ratio
c Emission standard depends on weight
b
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ENVIRON studies of LEV-III effects
• Modeled summer + winter incremental benefits in ozone and PM2.5 from
successive US LDV standards (but not change in gasoline sulfur)
– Journal article published in 2012
Effects of light duty gasoline vehicle emission standards in the United States on ozone and
particulate matter. Atmospheric Environment. 60:109-120.
Gasoline LDV scenarios modeled for year 2022 (assuming that a
different standard existed in each scenario in 2022):
–
–
–
–
–
Tier 0
Tier 1
Tier 2
LEV-III adopted nationwide
Zero-out all emissions from gasoline LDVs
• Follow-on summertime ozone study that considered the effect of
reduced gasoline sulfur on VOC and NOx emissions
– http://www.api.org/~/media/Files/News/2013/13-April/ENVIRON-Sep2012-Effectsof-LDV-Emiss-Stds-Gasoline-Sulfur-level-on-Ozone.pdf
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ENVIRON studies of LEV-III effects
• State-of-the-science models
– MOVES to estimate nationwide on-road emissions
– EMFAC model to estimate the incremental benefit of LEV III over LEV II
– California Predictive model to estimate the VOC and NOx emissions effects of ~10
ppm gasoline sulfur relative to ~30 ppm sulfur
– NMIM, MEGAN, SMOKE to estimate other emissions
– CAMx to model ozone and PM2.5 at nested 36/12 km grid resolution.
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CONUS Total On-road Emissions (tons/day), July 2022
VOC
NOx
14
Monthly Mean of Daily Max 8-hr Ozone in July 2022
(Change in gasoline sulfur not considered)
Tier 1
Tier 2
LEV III
Tier 2-Tier 1
LEVIII-Tier 2
No g-LDVs – Tier 2
Tier 2 up to 11% lower
than Tier 1
Very small reduction
(< 0.2%)
Eliminating cars and light
trucks: up to 6% lower than
Tier 2
Source: Vijayaraghavan et al., 2012
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Monthly Mean of Daily Max 8-hr Ozone in July 2022
(consider effect of gasoline sulfur change on VOC & NOx)
Tier 2 – Tier 1:
Tier 2 is up to 12 ppb
lower than Tier 1
LEV III – Tier 2
(note different scale)
LEV III is up to 0.5 ppb
lower than Tier 2
Summary
• Large reductions in summertime ozone in 2022 from Tier 1 to Tier 2
• Relatively small reductions in ozone in 2022 from Tier 2 to a nationwide
•
implementation of a LEVIII–like standard (“Tier 3”) considering both
emissions and gasoline sulfur reductions
Reasons
– Relatively small decrease in LDV emissions by 2022 from Tier 2 to LEV III
compared to decrease from Tier 1 to Tier 2
– VOC and NOx from on-road LDVs are a relatively small fraction of the total
2022 inventory compared to other source categories
• Additional air quality benefits are expected beyond 2022 as more LEV III
vehicles enter the vehicle fleet and the standard phases in.
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