Expected Outcomes of Workshops

Report
Hydrogen Roadmap North America Workshop
Alex Körner
alexander.kö[email protected]
© OECD/IEA 2012
Content
 Roadmap outline: Scope – vision – structure
 Roadmap analytical capabilities: Modeling tools
 State of the art
 Literature review
 Input data validation – transport
 Preliminary results
 Expected outcomes of the workshop
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Structure and scope of the roadmap
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Outline of Roadmap
 Introduction
 Rationale for roadmap – H2 in the energy system
 Transport
 Stationary applications
 Energy storage
 Synergies between energy sectors
 Technology status today
 Vision for deployment to 2050
 Technology development – Actions and milestones
 Policy, regulation, financing: Actions and milestones
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Rationale hydrogen
 Decarbonization of the energy system
 Power sector: Increased demand for operational flexibility
creates demand for energy storage
 Transport sector: Increased demand for high energy density
AND low carbon fuels puts pressure on biofuels and creates
demand for alternatives
 Stationary: Increased demand for high efficient and integrated
processes creates demand to use intersectoral synergies
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Key features of Hydrogen
 Potentially low carbon
 Very flexible energy carrier which can be generated
from almost all PE to a suite of useful end-use energy
carriers
 Can store energy
 At large scale over long time – Energy storage & VARres
integration
 At small capacities under restricted space and weight
requirements - Transport
 Can be used as feedstock to reduce carbon footprint
 Hydrogen is used in large quantities already today
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Key features of Hydrogen
 In the long term, hydrogen applications needs to built
on:
 The use of low carbon hydrogen
 The need to store energy (either at larger quantities or in
mobile applications)
 In the short term, existing infrastructure to generate
and distribute hydrogen will have to play a great role to
create hydrogen demand markets
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Technology status today
 Discussion of key technology components
 Electrolyzers, fuel cells and storage technology
 Discussion of demand side technologies
 Fuel cell vehicles
 Niche applications
 Fork lifts, UPS, micro FC CHP
 Hydrogen distribution, transmission and retail
infrastructure
 Transmission technology – Gaseous and liquefied trucking,
pipelines
 Hydrogen refueling stations
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Technology status today
 Hydrogen based flexibility options for the power sector
 Power – to – power
 Power – to gas
 Power – to – fuel
 Efficient steel making processes
 Blast furnace top-gas recovery with H2 separation and reinjection
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Regional focus
 The roadmap will contain global views on certain
aspects – e.g. GHG potential of FCEVs in road transport
 Detailed analysis will focus on the following regions
 EU G4
 USA
 Japan
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Vision – Transport
 What if 25% of all PLDVs are FCEVs by 2050?
 Vehicle sales and ramp-up rates
 Discussion of global fuel use and emission reduction potential
 Costs and benefits
 Infrastructure requirements and costs
2DS-high H2
Million vehicles
2 000
1 500
FCEV
BEV
1 000
PHEV
Hybrid ICE
500
0
2010
Conventional ICE
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Vision – Hydrogen storage
 What if large scale hydrogen electricity storage can get
competitive?
 Estimation of storage potentials in high VARres integration
 What costs/efficiencies needs to be reached for H2 electricity storage
technology to be competitive
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Vision – Power-to-gas
 Can power-to-gas be a competitive flexibility option?
 At which carbon price power-to-gas can get competitive?
 Attempt to estimate regional storage potential within existing NG
infrastructure under certain blend shares based on existing studies
 What techno-economic parameters of electrolyzers needs to be achieved?
Source: Analyse des
Klimaschutzpotentials der
Nutzung von erneuerbarem
Wasserstoff
und Methan, DVGW 2013
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Vision – Power-to-fuel
 What if otherwise curtailed electricity would be used to
produce H2 for transport?
 Even under optimistic cost/efficiency assumptions of electrolyzers, low
value electricity needs to be used to make renewable H2 competitive with
e.g. NG steam reforming
 Can the inherent storage need for transport refueling infrastructure serve
as a storage for VARres integration?
Source: Renewable
Electricity Futures Study,
Volume 1, NREL 2013
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Technology development –
Actions and milestones
 Actions and milestones will be set based on the
following metrics:
 Which cost targets needs to be met – benchmarking of H2
technologies
 Transport: TCO breakeven with gasoline hybrid ICEs
 Storage: LCOE breakeven with PHS, CAES
 By when cost targets needs to be met
 Based on FCEVs stock targets, stock turn over and sales ramp-up
 Based on power sector scenarios and variable renewable integration
This roadmap recommends the following actions:
Assess and catalogue potential PSH and CAES sites and estimated costs. For PSH, this assessment
should include pump-back, off-stream, and closed-loop, land-based and marine potential.
Assess potential and costs of transforming existing constant-speed pumped storage hydropower
(PSH) into variable-speed, allowing these plants to provide additional ancillary services
Complete retrofits on existing PSH facilities to improve total efficiency and flexibility.
Improve storage efficiency of CAES systems to 70%, in particular through improvements in
compression (turbine) efficiency and adiabatic CAES project development.
Proposed
timeline
2014-2020
2014-2020
2020-2035
2014-2035
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Policy, regulation, financing –
Actions and milestones
 FCEVs: Estimate of economic gap
 Effect of taxation of petroleum based transport fuels
 Quantification of direct subsidies
 Power – to – gas: Impact of carbon prizing
 H2 electricity storage:
 Discussion of current barriers – e.g. storage technologies
frequently do not fit naturally into existing regulatory
frameworks as they provide value across different portions of
the market
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Analytical capabilities
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Overall ETP modelling framework
 Supply side:
 TIMES – Energy system least cost optimization model
 Demand side
 Split into three sectoral models: Transport (MoMo), Industry
and Buildings
 All demand side models are technology rich stock accounting
simulation tools which allow for sectoral projections of energy
use, emissions and costs until 2050
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ETP modelling framework
Energy costs
Primary
energy
Conversion
sectors
Final energy
End-use
sectors
Electricity
production
Fossil
Renewables
Nuclear
Refineries
Synfuel
plants
CHP and
heat plants
Material
demands
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural
gas
Heat
etc.
etc.
ETP-TIMES model
End-use service
demands
Energy demand
Industry
Heating
Cooling
Buildings
Passenger
travel
Transport
Freight
MoMo
model
etc.
Model horizon: 2009-2050
(2075) in 5 year periods
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Hydrogen supply options
Centralised
hydrogen production
Natural gas
Heavy fuel oil
Coal
Biomass
Nuclear
Solar
Electricity
max. 10%
Pyrolysis/
Gasifier/
Reformer
with and without CCS
Natural gas
pipeline
H2 distribution
H2 pipeline
Sulfur/Iodine cycle
Electrolysis
H2 storage
Natural gas use
H2 use in
transport,
industry,
buildings,
electricity generation,
refining
Decentralised
hydrogen production
Electricity
Natural gas
Natural gas
Heavy fuel oil
Electrolysis at fuel station
H2 gas storage
Reformer at fuel station
LH2 storage
Reformer/Gasifier
at refinery
H2 use in transport
H2 use in refining
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ETP Mobility Model (MoMo)
 It is a spreadsheet model of global transport energy use, emissions, safety, and
materials use
 analysis of a multiple set of scenarios, projections to 2050
 Based on hypotheses on GDP and population growth, fuel economy, costs, travel demand,
vehicle technology shares
 World divided in 29 regions, incl. a good number of specific countries
 USA, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Korea, China, India
 The model is suitable for handling regional and global issues
 It contains a large amount of data on technology and fuel pathways
 full evaluation of the life cycle GHG emissions
 cost estimates for new light duty vehicles
 estimates for fuels costs and fuel distribution infrastructure
 section on material requirements for LDV manufacturing
 It is based on the "ASIF" framework:
Activity (passenger travel) * Structure (travel by mode, load factors) * Energy Intensity = Fuel use
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Vehicle stock in 2DS and variants
 2DS passenger transport integrates technological and behavioural aspects:
Avoid/Shift/Improve
 ETP 2012 discussed different technology portfolios with respect to energy use,
emissions and costs based on varying the shares of FCEVs vs. PHEVs
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Fuel demand by scenario and fuel type
 To reach the emission target, in the 2DS energy use in the road transport
sector needs to be reduced by almost 50% compared to the 4DS, going back to
2010 levels whilst vehicle stock is more than doubling
 The increased use of FCEVs can liberate more biofuels for use in other
transport sectors
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State of the art
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Literature review
 Literature list see ETP 2012
 Recently reviewed:
 NREL FCEV Demonstration Project
 FC stack lifetime seems main issue (2000h ~ 40,000 – 80,000km)
 FCH-JU/McKinsey bus study
 Leaves a lot of open questions with respect to results and methodology
 NREL Renewable Energy Futures Study
 Interesting levels of curtailment at various rates of variable renewable energy
penetration: At 90% RES (~60% VARres) 140 TWh electricity are might be curtailed
annually
 NAS - Transition to alternative vehicles and fuels
 “Fuel cells, batteries, biofuels, low-GHG production of hydrogen, carbon capture and
storage, and vehicle efficiency should all be part of the current R&D strategy. It is unclear
which options may emerge as the more promising and cost-effective.”
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Kick-off meeting and Europe WS
 On June 9/10 IEA hosted kick-off meeting and Europe
WS in Paris
 Vehicle technology is mature, market is needed
 Strong need to built upon existing studies
 Strong desire to focus on qualitative analysis
 No common idea on infrastructure development nor how a
“final” H2 T&D and retail system could look like
 Costs of renewable H2 are a major challenge for applications
in all sectors - economical only with very low electricity costs
 Niche markets for electrolysers might emerge in the near
future in the control power segment
 Careful classification and distinction between H2 energy
storage applications and energy service
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Input data review
 In November we sent a compilation of input data for
review to the Hydrogen Roadmap steering group
 The data contained assumptions on:
 FCEV Stock & sales
 Technology component cost and learning rates
 FCEV costs
 Vehicle fuel economy
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Preliminary results - FCEV costs
60
70
55
60
Gasoline ICE (USA)
Gasoline HEV (USA)
50
45
40
40
30
35
20
30
25
10
20
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
FCEV stock millions
Thousand 2010 USD
50
Glider (USA)
HEV global average MSRP in 2011
Gasoline HEV Plug-in (USA)
Prius-PHV
Diesel ICE (USA)
Diesel HEV (USA)
CNG/LPG (USA)
H2 FCV (USA)
BEV (USA)
BEV global average MSRP in 2011
FCEV stock
 FCEV costs drop relatively quickly with sales if envisaged
FC stack production costs can be achieved
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Total cost of driving
Total cost of driving USD/km
0.40
70.00
60.00
0.35
50.00
0.30
40.00
FCEV
ICE
HEV
0.25
30.00
BEV
20.00
PHEV
FCEV stock
0.20
10.00
0.15
2010
2020
2030
2040
0.00
2050
 TCO drop slower due to H2 generation and T&D cost
 Based on TCO “economic gap” analysis can be conducted
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Million vehicles
Thousand USD
Example economic gap calculation
70
70%
60
60%
50
50%
40
40%
30
30%
20
20%
10
10%
0
0%
-10
2010
2020
2030
2040
-20
2050
-10%
FCEV stock millions
"Subsidy" per
vehicle sold,
thousand USD/veh
Annual share of
"subsidy" on "tax"
-20%
 30% taxation of petroleum fuels
 TCO breakeven FCEV vs. hybrid around 2040
 At 30% petroleum fuel taxation, annual FCEV „vehicle subsidy“
would peak at ~15% tax revenue
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Copper-plate storage potential 2DS
 Combination of long-term investment decision/least cost energy
system run and dispatch model run with 2050 fixed ES fleet
 Storage results captures only time-wise mismatch between
supply and demand
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Long-term H2 electricity storage
LCOE USD/MWh
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Seasonal Today
Seasonal Future
0
 300 MWel_out, 120h, 5 cycles/y
 LCOE highly senstive to:
 Set-up of storage & cycle rate
 Investment cost electrolyzer/fuel cell, efficiency fuel cell
 Break even with OCGT at ~300 USD/kW for FC if all other parameters fixed –
Synergies with transport/large scale FC production?
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Short term H2 electricity storage
600
LCOE USD/MWh
500
400
Arbitrage Today
300
Arbitrage Future
200
100
0
H2 symetric
PHS
 Electricity – to – electricity short term storage does not
look very promising, even with optimistic cost
assumptions
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Expectations & proceeding the workshop
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WS expectations & structure
 Agenda of the WS is very broad
 We will not have the time to go very much into
technical detail
 Identification/prioritization of main technical/market
related/policy related issues for H2 applications in North
American context
Mobile
Stationary
Storage
Industry?
 Short presentations will start discussion in seven
specific sessions
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Thanks!
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