Heat Roadmap Europe 2050

Report
H
ROADMAP
HEAT
EAT
ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
EUROPE 2050
STUDY FOR THE EU27
by
Aalborg University
David Connolly
Brian Vad Mathiesen
Poul Alberg Østergaard
Bernd Möller
Steffen Nielsen
Henrik Lund
Halmstad University
Urban Persson
Daniel Nilsson
Sven Werner
PlanEnergi
Daniel Trier
for
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Heat Roadmap Europe 2050
Presented by:
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Why this study?
the heating and cooling sector has largely
been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the
energy future towards 2050.
The first study focuses on the future European
heat and cooling market and its importance in
terms of cost-savings, job creation,
investments, a smarter energy system
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Existing Studies
Existing scenario reports:
Fail to provide proper analysis of heating and cooling
Have a too low time and geographical resolution to model
the realities of the energy market, especially DHC
Acknowledge the importance of DHC until 2030/2030, but
Assume high shares of electric heating, low heat
consumption and low shares of DHC by 2050
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050






Many Energy
Sources
Urban areas (Heating Demands)
Power and Heat Generation
Waste Management
Industrial waste heat potential
Geothermal heat
Solar Thermal
the study indicates that the
market shares for district
heating for buildings can be
increased to 30% in 2030 and
50% in 2050.
Energi System
Analyse Model
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Hydro water
Hydro
storage
Hydro
power plant
Electricity
storage
system
Import/
Export
fixed and
variable
Electricity
demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
RES
electricity
Cooling
device
PP
Fuel
Heat
pump and
electric
boiler
CHP
Boiler
Heat
demand
Heat
storage
RES heat
H2 storage
Cooling
demand
Electrolyser
Transport
demand
Cars
Industry
Process
heat
demand
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Europe IEA 2010 and
EU CPI scenario 2050
CPI = Current Policy Initiatives
IEA Statistics
2009
Reference (12% DH)
(IEA 2010 and EU CPI 2050)
Versus
Reference plus 30% and 50% DH
(and CHP etc.)
EU Energy
Roadmap
2050
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
District Heating
benefits in 2 steps
Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)
- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%
- Increasing CHP
- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHP
Step 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)
- Industrial waste heat
- Waste incineration
- Geothermal heat
- Large-scale Solar Thermal
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Year 2010
Step 1: Energy Efficiency
IEA Statistics
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Year 2010
Step 2
IEA
Statistics
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Total European
Energy Supply
7% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
13% reduction in fossil fuels
17% reduction in CO2-emissions
IEA
Statistics
CPI
reference
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for House Heating 2010-2050
EU CPI vs HRE RE
700
600
10000
Existing CHP & DH
500
8000
400
6000
300
200
4000
100
2000
0
IEA 2010
2010
EU CPI
HRE RE
2030
EU CPI
HRE RE
2050
CO2 Emissions [Mt]
EU Energy
Roadmap
2050
Primary Energy Supply (PJ)
12000
Additional CHP & DH
Other renewable
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
0
Nuclear
-100
CO2 Emissions
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Total European
Energy Supply
EU Energy
Roadmap
2050
HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050:
5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
10% reduction in fossil fuels
13% reduction in CO2-emissions
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
 Saved fuel costs
of annual approx.
30 Billion EUR in 2050
 In total cost are
reduced by 14 Billion
EUR in 2050
 Additional
investments of a total
of 500 billion EUR
 Additional jobs from
to 2013 to 2050:
8-9 million man-year
in total
Approx. 220,000 jobs.
Cost
and Jobs
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Conclusion: 50%
DH and CHP
Decrease primary energy supply and
especially fossil fuels and CO2
emissions
Decrease annual costs of energy in
Europe by approx. 10 Billion in 2050
Create additional 220,000 jobs in the
period 2013-2050
Further integration of RES
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
To be continued
 In continuation of this study to make a
tighter connection between the energy
modelling part and the mapping part
 Advocate full energy balance matrixes in
future projections concerning the future
European energy system such as Energy
Roadmap 2050
 Further optimise the DH-scenarios (replace
electric heating, expand CHP and HP, further
the integration of wind and PV etc.)
HEAT ROADMAP
EUROPE 2050
Thank you
Need further information
www.heatroadmapeurope.eu

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