Electricity Demand - Global Energy Security Forum

Report
The Outlook
for Energy:
A View to 2040
Nick Jones
February 3, 2015
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic
conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the
development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed
herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at:
www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts
based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources
including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the
permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
100 countries
15 demand
sectors
trade
flows
20 fuel
types
technology & policy
2
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy
3
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy
4
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy
5
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Energy Measures and Units
1 log = 24,500 BTU
1 gallon gasoline = 5 logs
1 gallon gasoline = 36 kWh
13,000 AA batteries
4,000 smart phone batteries
6
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita Energy Demand
Commercial Buildings
Household Use
6
7
Commercial Transportation
4
Personal Transportation
6
Total
34
Industrial
11
7
7
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
2010 World Daily Energy Demand
U.S. Per Capita
World Per Capita
34
9
7
1.7
Times 7 billion people =
~12 billion gallons per day
260 MBDOE
525 QUADS
8
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Global Mix of Fuels
Quadrillion BTUs
Other Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Oil
Coal
Oil
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
1900
Coal
Biomass
1950
2000
Biomass
2040
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
9
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand
Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion
Trillion 2010$
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy
Savings
Rest of World
Key Growth
India
China
OECD*
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
10
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
The Middle Class Continues to Grow
Middle Class per The Brookings Institution
Billion People
Rest of World
Key Growth
Turkey
China
Iran
Egypt
India
China
Mexico
Saudi
Arabia
Nigeria
India
OECD*
Brazil
Thailand
Indonesia
South
Africa
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
11
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)
2040 Percentage Urban
0-50%
50-75%
75-100%
2010 City – 10 million +
2040 City – 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
12
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Primary Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
‘40
‘25
‘10
Electricity
Generation
Industrial
Transportation
Res/Comm
13
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
14
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Demand
Sector Demand
MBDOE
Rail
Marine
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Light Duty
15
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand
2040 LDV Fleet
World LDV Demand
Million
MBDOE
Improved Standard of Living
Population Growth
Energy
Savings
Base Fleet
Improved Standard
of Living
Population Growth
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
16
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Fuel Demand
World
United States
MBDOE
MBDOE
Other
Natural Gas
Fuel Oil
Jet Fuel
Biodiesel
Diesel
Ethanol
Gasoline
17
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
18
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Industrial Demand
Industrial Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Paint
Fertilizer
Plastics
Chemical
Automobiles
Textiles
Steel
Heavy Industry
Liquid
Energy Industry Fuels
Other
Natural Gas
Coal
Agriculture
Lubricants
Asphalt
19
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Industrial Demand Growth Shifts; Intensity Improves
Industrial Demand Growth
Industrial Energy Intensity
Quadrillion BTUs
Thousand BTUs per Dollar of GDP
‘95
Rest of World
Key Growth
India
‘10
China
‘25
‘40
OECD*
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
20
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Chemical Demand
Chemical Demand by Region
Chemical Demand by Fuel Type
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
‘40
Rest of World
Key Growth
India
‘25
‘10
China
OECD*
United States
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
21
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
22
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand by Region
Thousand TWh
Thousand TWh
2014
China
Improved
Standard of Living
Population Growth
Industrial Growth
Key Growth
United States
Europe
India
Base Demand
23
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves
Global Capacity Utilized
By Generation
GW
k TWh
Gas
‘40
Coal
‘10
Nuclear
Wind & Solar
Other Renewables
Oil
24
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Fuel by Region
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10 ‘25
‘40
Other
Solar
Wind
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Key Growth
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
25
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand
2040 By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
0.8%
1.6%
1.0%
2010
0.1%
0.5%
2.3%
5.8%
1.8%
26
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
CO2 Emissions
27
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
World Emissions
CO2 Emissions by Region
Emissions per Capita
Billion metric tonnes
Tonnes / Person
Rest of World
Key Growth
‘10
‘40
India
China
OECD*
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
28
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Supply
29
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Supply
World Supply by Type
Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates
MBDOE
Trillion Barrels
Biofuels
Other
Natural Gas Liquids
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
New Conventional
C&C Development
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Developed Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates
30
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region
MBDOE
Demand
Biofuels
Other
Natural Gas Liquids
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional C&C Development
‘10
‘20
‘30
‘40
Conventional Crude & Condensate
North
America
31
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region
MBDOE
Biofuels
Other
Natural Gas Liquids
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional C&C Development
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Demand
‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
North
America
Latin
America
Africa
Europe
Russia/
Caspian
Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
32
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Gas Trade Balance by Region
BCFD
Unconventional Production
Conventional Production
Demand
‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
North
America
Latin
America
Africa
Europe
Russia/
Caspian
Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
33
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Energy Trade
Indicative trade flows
34
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Energy Trade
Liquids Demand
Gas Demand
MBDOE
BCFD
Imports/Exports
LNG
Pipeline
Local Production
Local Production
35
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Developing Economies Dominate Growth
Demand by Region
Quadrillion BTUs
Rest of World
Key Growth
India
China
OECD*
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
36
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040
37

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