ASSESSMENT OF CHANGING SEA ICE CONDITIONS AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN CANADIAN ARCTIC WATERS 1990-2012 Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014) Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3. University of Ottawa Larissa Pizzolato Jackie Dawson Luke Copland Environment Canada: Climate Research Division Stephen Howell Chris Derksen BACKGROUND Sep 1990 Sep 2012 NCEP-NCAR NSIDC, 2013 Maslanik et al., 2011 F U T U R E PR O J EC TIONS: MODELLED SHIPPING INCREASES Two climate forcing scenarios: RCP 4.5 (low – medium) and RCP 8.5 (high) Red: Fastest transArctic routes for Polar Class 6 ships Blue: Fastest transArctic routes for open water ships Smith & Stephenson, 2013 OBJECTIVES 1) Is shipping in the Canadian Arctic increasing? 2) Is sea ice (total ice, MYI, FYI) declining? 3) Is there a connecting between shipping activity and changing sea ice conditions? DATA DESCRIPTIONS Dataset Summary • 1990 to present • 82 555 spatial data records • Vessel name, call sign, IMO number, location • Canadian Ice Service Weekly regional ice charts across the entire Canadian Arctic Surface Air Temperature • NCEP-NCAR monthly SAT means Melt Season Length • Melt Onset, Freeze Onset, Melt Season Length Ships Sea Ice METHODOLOGY Data Acquisition Quality Control Correct for inconsistencies in vessel name, type, location Reclassification of Vessel Type 36 reported vessel types reclassified using AMSA report into 10 categories Regime Shift Detection Rodionov Statistical Regime Shift Detector Trend Analysis Zhang Method, Sen`s Slope of the Tr e n d M o n t h l y, A n n u a l l y, S h i p p i n g S e a s o n Correlation Analysis K e n d a l l ` s Ta u R a n k Correlation REGIME SHIFT DETECTION Step increase in total shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic in 2007 Confidence that change in reporting did not affect shipping dataset ANNUAL SHIPPING TRENDS Annual ship counts are increasing for some vessel types: Bulk Carriers and Passenger Ships 3 vessels decade -1 Government Vessels and Icebreakers and Pleasure Crafts 8 vessels decade -1 MONTHLY SHIPPING TRENDS Total ship increases are observed in some months: June (9 vessels decade -1 ) July (22 vessels decade -1 ) and November (13 vessels decade -1 ) Shipping Trends (Vessels Decade-1) Vessel Type Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Bulk Carriers 0 -1 0 0 2 1 Fishing Vessels 6 5 13 3 0 5 General Cargo 0 1 1 1 3 3 Government Vessels and Icebreakers 1 3 3 2 4 1 Passenger Ships - 2 2 3 0 - Pleasure Crafts - 1 18 4 0 - Tanker Ships 2 2 0 6 0 1 SHIPPING SEASON SEA ICE JUNE 25 TO OCTOBER 15 a. Total Ice b. MYI -30 (x 103) km2 year -1 c. FYI -11 (x 103) km2 year -1 -19 (x 103) km2 year -1 MONTHLY SEA ICE TRENDS Total Ice area and MYI area is declining in all months of the year (with the exception of Total Ice area in April) FYI area is declining during the summer months Month Trend Ice Area (x 103) km2 year Total MYI FYI Ice January -8 -14 3 February -7 -13 3 March -5 -13 5 April -1 -13 4 May June July -9 -19 -11 -10 1 -5 -34 -14 -19 August -29 -17 -13 September -28 -22 -6 October -27 -23 -3 November -24 -21 -9 December -15 -18 -6 -1 ARE SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC LINKED? No significant relationships identified outside the months of July through October or for FYI Weak relationships between shipping activity and Total Ice Area ( - 0 . 3 0 t o - 0 . 3 4 ) Stronger relationships identified between MYI Area and shipping activity ( - 0 . 3 0 t o - 0 . 4 4 ) for specific months and vessel types SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN RECENT YEARS Strengthening relationship between Total Ice area and MYI area and shipping activity in more recent years. MELT SEASON LENGTH AND SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE Increasing SAT at a rate of 0.7ºC to 1.8ºC decade -1 Melt Season length + 11 days decade -1 Freeze onset + 8 days decade -1 Earlier melt onset linked to increasing number of Passenger Ships annually Strong link between Total Ice area and: Melt season length Melt onset Freeze onset FUTURE WORK Spatio-temporal changes in shipping activity and sea ice conditions from 1990 to 2012 Identification of regions of increased (or decreased) shipping activity Are regions of increased ship activity also areas of sea ice decline/thinning? SUMMARY Step increase in shipping activity in 2007 Increasing shipping activity for some vessel types annually, and monthly between June and November Evidence of extension of the shipping season into the shoulder seasons of June and November Physical relationships are weak, suggesting other factors (i.e. economics, tourism) play an important role in observed increases shipping activity Strengthening relationship between Total Ice area and shipping activity in recent years University of Ottawa Larissa Pizzolato Jackie Dawson Luke Copland Thank-You! Environment Canada: Climate Research Division Stephen Howell Chris Derksen Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014) Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3.