EMPIRE- modelling the future European power system under different

Report
EMPIRE- modelling the future European
power system under different climate
policies
Asgeir Tomasgard, Christian Skar, Gerard
Doorman, Bjørn H. Bakken, Ingeborg Graabak
FME CenSES
Centre for Sustainable Energy Studies
The transition to a sustainable
power system
Challenge
The challenge for the energy system in years to come, is how to satisfy a
continually growing global energy demand and at the same time reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Technology choices (examples)
•
•
•
•
Renewable energy
Energy efficiency and saving
Fuel substitution in transport
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Policy instruments (examples)
•
•
•
Tax, e.g. a carbon price
Subsidies, e.g. a feed in tariff
Regulation, e.g. Emission Performance Standards
Purpose of our study
Evaluate the contribution of different policy scenarios on
- Power markets and power demand
- Generation expansion
- Grid expansion
- Emissions
In particular look at Norway´s role in the transition
The team
The Ramona-EL
power system model
The GCAM tool
•
•
•
•
Technologically detailed integrated assessment model.
14 geopolitical regions
Emissions of 16 greenhouse gases
Runs through 2095 in 5-year time steps
Ramona-EL
•
Power system design and operation
•
•
•
•
•
Models each European country´s generation capacity and
import/export channels, not physical lines
Time horizon until 2050 – investments in 5 year steps
Model operational time periods: demand, supply (stochastic
wind and solar PV) and optimal dispatch.
Taking fuel prices, expected load and costs as input
Provides a cost minimization capacity expansion
plan for Europe, detailed for each
country
Load profiles from ENTSO-E and national data
Inflow, wind and solar profiles from national data
Hourly supply and demand
In total 4000 hours used to represent
different dispatch situations over 50
years
- 4 seasons
- 24 hours sequences
- Daily load patterns taken from 3
days per season + extreme days
Scenario descriptions
•
Global 202020 scenario – A policy scenario inspired
by the European 20-20-20 targets.
• Renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency
improvements and share of bio fuel in the
transportation sector are set for different regions
across the world.
•
450 ppm stabilization scenario – A policy scenario
where the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse
gases is limited to 450 ppm CO2-eq by the end of the
century. Emission reduction is achieved by
implementing a carbon price
TWh
European electricity demand
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Reference
450 ppm
Figure 1: Europe (WE+EE) electricity demand for the different policy scenarios
Global202020
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5
209
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203
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203
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202
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201
5
201
0
0
2010 $/tCO2
CO2 prices
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
201
0
201
5
202
0
202
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209
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209
5
$0
Reference
450 ppm
Global202020
Figure 1: Carbon dioxide emission price in Europe for the different policy scenarios
Installed capacity in power market
2050
The Ramona-EL analysis
Results for 2050
• Global 202020 scenario
• 450 ppm stabilization scenario
Energy mix 202020
Energy mix 450
The need for flexibility
High variations in non-dispatchable renewable production
from wind and solar PV
Global 202020:
450 ppm stabilization:
21.4% non-dispatchable
14,2 % non-dispatchable
Need flexibility and balancing
• Seasonal
• Weeks
• Hourly
• Shorter
New infrastructure in 2050 - 202020
New infrastructure 450
Example: Power exchange
European demand
4800TWh
Norwegian demand 162 TWh
New Norwegian cap. 20.1 GW
Net export
29 TWh
ure 1: The
of electricity
to and
fromNorway
Norway inin2050
in the 450 ppm scenario.
Theexchange
exchange
of power
from
2050
European demand 5800 TWh
Norwegian demand 197 TWh
New Norwegian cap. 20.1 GW
Net import
7 TWh
Flexible Norwegian energy as a service to Europe I
Flexible
reservoir
Storage capacity of 85 TWh in the
Norwegian reservoirs. This storage
volume has most of the time at least 1020 TWh free capacity
Hydropower
plant
DC cable
Energy content (%) in Norwegian hydropower reservoirs (2002-2013)
100
Line pack
90
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
3
1
20
Figure 1: Energy stored in Norwegian hydropower reservoirs. (Data from NVE)
20
1
2
1
0
20
1
0
20
20
1
9
8
0
20
20
0
20
0
7
6
5
0
20
20
0
0
20
4
2
3
0
20
0
% of full (85 TWh)
80
Gas power plant
Example: Natural gas exchange
Figure 1: Illustration of the electricity production from natural gas in the four countries where
Norway has an export pipeline (UK, Germany, France and Belgium) in the 202020 scenario (GWh/h).
The possible inventory changes in a typical pipeline we
looked at is in one hour approximately 9 GWh of electricity.
Flexible Norwegian energy as a service to Europe II
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
: Illustration of the flexibility to change the inventory level in one of the large export pipelines
Flexible
reservoir
Storage using linepack in gas
pipelines:
Flexibility of 2% within the hour, and 15%
in 12 hours. For the given pipeline, this
means that the inventory could be changed
with approximately 134 GWh within 12
hours.
Hydropower
plant
DC cable
Line pack
Gas power plant

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