Wills-adoptingcleantech-v3

Report
The energy challenge adopting clean tech
- how quickly will (can) Australia change?
Prof Ray Wills
Chief Executive Officer
Sustainable Energy Association of Australia
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia
Adoption of technology
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The natural turnover and retirement of appliances,
buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest
penetration of sustainable energy into Australia by 2021.
However, adoption of sustainable energy will not be
natural, with more rapid transitions favoured by:
 policy measures and regulation;
 consumer sentiment;
 pricing advantage.
Global renewables 2008, 2009, 2010,
2011…
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World invests on average around 300-400 billion pa on
energy projects of any type – conventional and renewables.
2008 - world invested more in total on renewable energy
($155 billion) than on traditional energy ($140 billion).
Almost 50% of new generation built in 2009 was renewable
energy - 80 GW of renewable power capacity built
compared to 83 GW of fossil fuel plants.
2010 up 32% with $211 billion investment in 2010.
$260 billion in 2011, up 5% on 2010 - 5 times 2004
2008 IEA forecast build for coal globally was 64 gigawatts actual build in 2010 was 14 GW (build of solar in 2010 was
17 GW)!
Global renewables 2008, 2009, 2010,
2011…
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36% surge in total investment in solar to $136.6 billion double the $74.9 billion investment in wind power in 2011.
The scale of investment in solar is even more remarkable
considering price of PV modules fell about 50% in 2011.
The third-largest sector for investment in 2011 after solar
and wind was energy-smart technologies, including smart
grid, power storage, efficiency and advanced transport with
total investment of $19.2 billion.
While China has dominated investment in the last few
years, USA investment surged past China in 2011 - USA
was $56 billion in 2011, up 33%; China’s 2011 investment
of just over $47.4 billion was marginally up from 2010.
Global renewables
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Building cities - China
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Guangzhou
13 million
Changsha
7 million
Chengdu
7 million
Building cities – Chongqing, China
Building cities - Korea
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Seoul
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Incheon
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Busan
Australian renewables 2011…
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The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in
2011 36% of new investment in gas and 41% in wind.
Coal-fired power generation, which currently accounts for
around 75% of Australia’s total electricity generation, was
only 17% of the committed new investment in power
stations for the 12 months to October 2011.
This is still behind the average world-wide investment in
renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than
Australia, investment in renewables 50 times larger!
(Australian investment less $0.7 billion in 2011 versus
China investment $49 billion – to match China action,
Australia would need to invest $6 billion per annum)
Roger’s diffusion curve
Technology adoption rates – US
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Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs?
(Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
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5 year product development cycle is appropriate
for modeling the automotive industry – US
NHTSA, 2010
BITRE (Aus) work argues slower uptake of 15
years. Spread of the technology to 90 % of
vehicle fleet takes another 15 years.
(Also – data not tracked for unsuccessful
technologies – and competing technologies
might be better)
Doesn’t consider resistance to change by
fossils!
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
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Marked decrease in developmental lag
Innovation/development of new products
Supply side capabilities
Market competition
Growing consumer expectations
Higher level of communication between
consumers - blogspace
Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs
Regulation
Energy security
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
Technology adoption rates
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Zoepf - future automotive features could be reasonably
expected to follow a similar pattern
- small-scale deployment for approximately five years
- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more
years after first application
Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future
technologies? We should expect some similarities!
Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry?
Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market
innovations,
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Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change
the how and what is purchased
Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof
Rapid change
- Personal mobility
Private transport
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Fuel efficiency, other energy sources
Transport
Energy storage key
New technologies may be disruptive
Commercial
vehicles
Smith Newton
electric truck
Mega electric diesel hybrids
 London Bus
 Haul Pak + Earthmover
 Mitsubishi Fuso
 Honda prime mover
 Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Electric mass transit
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Siemens Bordeaux
light rail
Bombardier wireless
light rail
Slim Ride -15 passengers
Series 700 Shinkansen
train – 285 km/h
Flying and floating fuels
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February 25, 2008 –
Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New
Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 –
Qantas follows US Military to
algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 –
US Navy announces by 2016
Green Strike Group, powered
by renewable diesel-electric
engines, nuclear power and
aviation biofuels, is able to
operate independent of fossil
fuel supply line threat or disruption
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms)
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Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as
loads & generators
Green cities
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Global
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Australia
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Tianjin Eco-City China
Ulsan Ecocity Korea
Masdar City UAE
City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
City of Melbourne
Stirling City Centre, Perth
City of Fremantle
Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
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Industry chamber for any businesses / enterprise in
sustainable energy or being more sustainable
Based in Perth, almost 400 members nationally
Information, communication, and networking businesses
Government advocacy (lobbying)
Policy development
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Legislation, regs and taxation - barriers and incentives
Education, skills and training
Calls for government leadership - and procurement
Industry mapping
Energising Kids – energy for the next generation
Available for
download from
www.seaaus.com.au
www.seaaus.com.au

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