スライド 1 - Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Report
Conference on Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration and
Architecture (Auckland, New Zealand)
The Assessment of Asian Economic
Integration and Perspectives for
Greater Economic Integration
Fukunari Kimura
Professor, Faculty of Economics, Keio University
Chief Economist, Economic Research Institute
for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
2010.03.25
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1. Introduction
• The completion of (ASEAN+1)x6 hub-and-spoke
FTA networking in extended East Asia
• Overlapping bilateral FTAs: pros and cons,
possible connection with “multilateralizing
regionalism”
• FTAs in East Asia: practical and pragmatic
• The following tries to assess the accomplishment
of FTA networking and discuss perspectives for
greater economic integration.
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2. Current Status of FTA networking
• Extended East Asia: The completion of (ASEAN+1)x6
(Table 1).
– Given a delay in FTA connection among Japan, Korea, and
China, ASEAN becomes a virtual “hub” of FTA networking
in East Asia.
• Asia-Pacific: from networking to consolidation (Figure
1)
– 9 advanced APEC countries have 20 FTAs signed/being
effective, 9 FTAs under negotiations.
– FTAAP (APEC-wide FTA), Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
initiative (P4, US, Australia, Peru, Vietnam…)
• Japan: 11 FTAs concluded (Table 2)
– Agricultural protection reduces the degree of freedom.
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: Participants in TPP talks.
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3. The evaluation of FTA networking
•
Interactions between de facto and de jure economic integration
– The formation of international production networks
– The mission of FTAs after the Asian currency crisis
•
•
•
Restructuring import-substituting industries
Further activating production networks
Liberalization of trade in goods
– Liberalization coverage
•
AFTA is now completing a clean FTA in terms of the liberalization coverage for trade in goods, but
other FTAs in East Asia still include dirty aspects.
– FTA utilization (Tables 3, 4)
•
Considering other policy arrangements to avoid being taxed such as zero MFN tariffs, duty-drawback
system, and others, the utilization of FTAs seems to be fairly high in ASEAN. However, further
facilitation ion utilizing FTAs may be required, particularly for small and medium enterprises.
– Rules of origin (Roo) (Table 5)
•
•
RoO is certainly important in order to capture the benefit of liberalization effort in FTAs, and there still
exists room for further facilitation. However, negative consequences of the complication of RoO seem
to be limited in East Asia.
Co-equal system works well.
– Regionalism promoting multilateral liberalization?
•
Liberalization in other policy modes
– AEM (Table 6), ASEAN-Japan FTAs (cf. ACFTA, AKFTA)
•
•
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WTO+ works strongly.
However, the context is not for pursuing the legal comprehensiveness of economic integration.
Rather, the motivation of introducing WTO+ is pragmatic for serving diplomatic purposes or
responding to requests of private sector extending international production networks.
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4. Further evaluation in a wider scope
• Toward assessing economic effects of FTA networking
– Static and dynamic, direct and indirect
• Explosive increases in exports by East Asian countries
in 2001-2007
– Both intra-East Asia exports and exports to ROW
– “Trade openness” enhanced in East Asia (Figures 2, 3,
Table 7)
• Direct effects of the removal of trade barriers (esp. AFTA)
• The reshuffling of production sites responding to trade
liberalization (Table 8)
• More than proportional growth of demand for traded goods
– Non-homothetic tastes, growth of middle class (Figures 4-6)
• Assessment of FTA networking in a wider scope is
required.
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Figure 4 Population by income groups: China
(US dollars; 2005 PPP adjusted; annual total income of a family with four members)
> $12,000
$6,000 –
12,000
$3,000 –
6,000
Total population: 1,204,850,000
Total population: 1,304,500,000
62.82 million (5%)
< $1,800
290.90 million (22%)
$6,000 –
12,000
451.08 million (35%)
$3,000 –
6,000
235.76 million (20%)
651.54 million (54%)
256.68 million (20%)
Below
poverty line
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> $12,000
248.46 million (21%)
Middle class
$1,800 –
3,000
98.16 million (8%)
1995
207.68 million (16%)
2005
$1,800 –
3,000
< $1,800
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Figure 5 Population by income groups: ASEAN (excl. Singapore, Brunei, and Myanmar)
(US dollars; 2005 PPP adjusted; annual total income of a family with four members)
Total pupulation: 429,140,000
> $12,000
22.24 million (5%)
$6,000 –
12,000
43.25 million (10%)
$3,000 –
6,000
96.80 million (23%)
$1,800 –
3,000
< $1,800
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Total population: 501,110,000
35.15 million (7%)
> $12,000
79.97 million (16%)
$6,000 –
12,000
Middle class
167.83 million (34%)
$3,000 –
6,000
124.47 million (25%)
$1,800 –
3,000
113.32 million (26%)
153.53 million (36%)
1994-1996
Below
Poverty line
93.68 million (19%)
2004-2006
< $1,800
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Figure 6 Population by income groups: India
(US dollars; 2005 PPP adjusted; annual total income of a family with four members)
> $12,000
Total population: 888,320,000
Total population: 1,079,700,000 > $12,000
$6,000 –
21.93 nillion (2%)
$6,000 –
41.10 million (4%)
12,000
12,000
$3,000 –
143.94 million (16%)
Middle class
6,000
220.30 million (20%)
$3,000 –
6,000
$1,800 –
3,000
284.82 million (32%)
358.68 million (33%)
< $1,800
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444.28 million (49%)
1993
Below
Poverty line
449.63 million (42%)
2004
$1,800 –
3,000
< $1,800
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5. Perspectives for greater economic
integration
• The current system of overlapping FTAs seems to gain a certain
level of appreciation; economic/political momentum toward
plurilateral framework may not be very strong in East Asia.
• ASEAN+3 vs. ASEAN+6
– Consolidated FTA: not worthwhile discussing seriously without CJK FTA
– Forum competition: depending on attractiveness of topics, willingness
for dialogue partners to participate in, and the feeling of ownership by
ASEAN
• East Asia vs. Asia-Pacific
– Approach and agenda are different (pragmatism vs. rule-oriented,
advanced-country-oriented vs. development); can go both at the same
time.
– Effective interactions of the two would provide an alternative
framework for G2.
• Asia-Pacific is likely to lead further development of FTA
networking/consolidation in the coming years.
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