Serious Play 2011 – Redmond

Report
Making Money in Social
Gaming
M.Eng, ARAeS, CIPP
President
All logos and trademarks in this presentation are property of their respective owners.
Biography – Nick Berry
1988
1994
2008
2010
PC Casual Game Universe
Download
Web
Social
PC Casual Game Universe
Download
Web
Advertising
Sales
Micro-transactions
Social
Number of players
24 hours
The Results
Advertising Potential
Price evolution of deluxe downloads
$19.95
$19.99
$15.99
$12.99
$9.99
$6.95
$6.99
facebook
What is a Social Game?
“But they’re not social!”
(After all, “Casual Games are not casual” either!)
P
P
“A game played on a Social Network”
So what is a game?
Not Work!
“Any non-obligatory activity that is performed for fun!”
A Social Game is …
… any non-obligatory
activity that is
performed, for fun, on a
Social Network
Why are Social Games so Popular?
A non-obligatory activity
that is performed for fun.
Players broadcast their
indulgences,
performances and
achievements (both
actively and passively).
Certainly describes many of
the “Activities” on Facebook!
In no more than a couple of
clicks, exposed users can be
having fun, and jumping on
the latest bandwagon of
distraction.
Facebook has exposed people
to copious quantities of nonessential activities and
provided easy channels to
announce participation in
these entertainments to
others.
Curiosity, Invitation, Peer
Pressure, Challenge
Whilst social could be considered a poor
adjective to describe games when many games
are solo activities, these activities do earn it the
moniker social because they offer a shared experience.
Albeit asynchronously, all the people who have enjoyed
the same activity have been down the same path.
Just how big is it?
Just how big is FaceBook?
6.8 billion people on the planet
2.0 billion people connected to the internet
728 million registered facebook accounts
36% of the connected World already has a Facebook account!
If facebook were a country …
#1
#2
#3
China
India
facebook
… it would the 3rd largest in the World.
What is the most popular Windows
application of all time?
Dec-98
Mar-99
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Peak Population
Effect of facebook on traditional Casual Gaming web sites
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Data courtesy of
Worldwide Registrations – Social Networks
Google+
Xanga
MyHeritage
Last.fm
WeeWorld
Flickr
Viadeo
Odnoklassniki
douban
Classmates.com
MyLife
Flixster
Netlog
MAIL.RU
hi5
Badoo
Friendster
Myspace
LinkedIn
Orkut
Tagged
Vkontakte
Bebo
Windows Live Spaces
Renren
Twitter
Habbo
Qzone
Facebook
-
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
facebook gaming is big business
“Disney Buys Playdom in $763 Million Deal,
Becoming Hollywood Leader in Social Games”
“Not Playing Around. EA Buys Playfish For $300
Million, Plus a $100 Million Earnout.”
“Zynga Issues Shares at a $20 Billion Valuation”
EA Buys PopCap Games For As Much As $1.3B
Top facebook Game
Peaked at 84 MM Monthly Active Users (MAU).
32 MM distinct people used the application at
least once a day (DAU).
Close to 40% of all their users visit the
application every single day!
Farmville - MAU
Café World - MAU
Café World - DAU
Café World - Engagement
Around the World
Where in the World?
Top 25 countries on facebook
Top 30 countries account for 80% of all FaceBook registered accounts.
After Egypt, no other country accounts for more than 1%.
Gender breakdown of FaceBook users Worldwide
Male dominant
Female dominant
United States 44.31% male
United Kingdom 48.26% male
India 69.88
% male
facebook Demographics
13
Male
AGE
65+
Female
facebook Demographics - USA
Many users of
college age.
In USA large number
of members over 65
Different Countries
Similar Countries … Similar Profiles
Similar Countries … Similar Profiles
Different Countries … Different Profiles
Bejeweled Blitz
Jay Leno vs. Conan
Quiz Time – Guess the movie
Answer: Twilight™
Comparing Demographic “Genes”
38.41% correlation
Comparing Demographic “Genes”
80.89% correlation
Cross correlation between brands
Bejeweled
Blitz Affinity
What are
fans of glee
on facebook
interested in?
Sims
Monopoly
Pet Society
Happy Pets
Tetris
Uno
Wii
Nintendo DS
Country Story
Happy Aquarium
Guitar Hero
Restaurant City
Super Mario Bros
Rock Band
Petville
Sorority Life
Doodle Jump
Fishville
Civilization
Pokemon
Zoo World
Roller Coaster Kingdom
Pillow Fight
Millionaire City
Wii Fit
Yoville
TextTwist
Happy Island
Cityville
Mind Jolt Games
Barn Buddy
Cafe World
Settlers of Catan
Collapse!
Vampire Wars
Farmville
Scrabble
Treasure Isle
World of Warcraft
Fish World
Texas Holdem Poker
Jigsaw Puzzles
Mafia Wars
Chess
Castle Age
Halo
Farm Town
Island Paradise
Mobsters 2 - Vendetta
Bejeweled Blitz
PS3
Xbox 360
Warstorm
Mahjong Dimensions
Affinity for Games
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jersey Shore
American Idol
MTV
SpongeBob
Americas Next Top Model
Saturday Night Live
Scrubs
How I met your Mother
Lost
The Office
Heroes
Family Guy
Ugly Betty
Dr Who
CSI
The Bachelor
Simpsons
Desperate Housewives
NCIS
Ghost Whisperer
Sex and the City
Mythbusters
Big Bang Theory
Two and a Half Men
Criminal Minds
Colbert
Law and Order
Conan oBrien
Ellen Degenerous
South Park
Jay Leno
Biggest Loser
Star Trek
Martha Stewart
Medium
Oprah Winfrey Show
Top Gear
Battlestar Galactica
Howard Stern
TV Shows
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Music
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Taylor
Swift
Lady Gaga Katy Perry
Britney
Spears
Shakira
Justin
Bieber
Avril
Lavigne
Rihanna Black Eyed Michael
Peas
Jackson
Frank
Sinatra
Red Hot
Chili
Peppers
Elvis
Barry
Manilow
60%
50%
50%
50%
40%
40%
40%
30%
30%
30%
20%
20%
20%
10%
10%
10%
0%
0%
0%
Crocs
60%
Adidas
60%
Reebok
70%
Nike
70%
Puma
70%
Pizza Hut
80%
Dunkin Donuts
80%
Dairy Queen
80%
Taco Bell
90%
McDonalds
90%
Starbucks
90%
Red Bull
100%
Coca-Cola
100%
Pepsi
100%
Converse
Drinks, Fast Food and Footwear
100%
100%
100%
90%
90%
90%
80%
80%
80%
70%
70%
70%
60%
60%
60%
50%
50%
50%
40%
40%
40%
30%
30%
30%
20%
20%
20%
10%
10%
10%
0%
0%
0%
Cigars
Investing
Foursquare
Twitter
iTunes
Dogs
Cats
Horses
Gardening
NASCAR
Golf
Martial Arts
Knitting
Scuba Diving
Yoga
Fishing
Jogging
Baking
Skiing
Snowboarding
Soccer
Fashion
Makeup
Hobbies, Animals and Misc.
Propensity to pay?
Sorority Life, % users who spend by age
Source: “Rules to Monetize By …”, Playdom 2010
Are you targeting your game to the paying audience?
O
$
Even if this game had 5x
the traffic, it would not
generate the same revenue
Would you like to have the largest game
on facebook, or the most profitable?
Micro-transaction types
Bling
-
Avatars
Fashion
Accessories
Things that do not
adjust the balance of
the game
Accelerators
Kill 10 more Orcs
Pay to get 10 gold
coins to get +10%
attack bonus for 12
hours
= or =
Pay 10 gold coins
Time
Money
Power-ups
+10%
The economic beauty of micro-transactions
Price
The “Tall” Tail …
$19.95
$6.95
The Long Tail …
Volume
Big brands are starting to get it
MIT research
• When playing games, people are at
95-99% “focused attention”
(As measured by pupil dilation, skin resistance, pulse,
movement, breathing, brain activity …)
• This blows away all other media
• With just 15 seconds exposure to a
brand, there is >80% unaided recall.
Sponsors can receive “Halo” effect by having their
brands associated with success screens and level
completion events.
Pitching to potential Advertisers
Honeymoon period for brand owners with fans!
•
43% of fans visit facebook several times a day.
•
50% of fans come to facebook for entertainment.
•
92% say that being a fan has a positive impact in recommending to friends.
•
52% recommend others to follow the brand.
•
84% of fans consume (regularly/ocassionally) the brand.
•
There is no disconnect between brands followed on facebook and regular consumers.
•
An average of 9 brands are followed by users.
Source: DDB, October 2010
You’re a Service not a Product
Measure Everything!
Analytics is now just as important as game design!
Play or
Join
A/B Testing
It’s not just for adverts!
Use tools. Measure baseline.
Tweak, then measure again.
Denominators are large, so even minor changes can
result in $$.
It’s all about the “tastes of the fish, not the tastes of the
fisherman”.
Look at everything: prices, tooltips, position, offers …
We’re now on the second generation
of Social Games
Generation #1 – Build it, and throw it live immediately.
Fix and modify it live. Those days are over!
Generation #2 – Get it mechanics reasonably polished before general release.
“You don’t get a second chance to make a first impression”
Today’s early adopters of new games:
- Virally introduce more people to your game
- Typically spend more over lifetime
Questions?
[email protected]

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