West Virginia School Age Population Patterns and Trends 2014

Report
Projection of West Virginia K-12
(0-19 Years Old) Population
Christiadi
Bureau of Business and Economic Research
College of Business and Economics
West Virginia University
Presented at the:
WEST VIRGINIA BOARD OF EDUCATION
Commission on School District Governance and Administration Meeting
Charleston, WV March 27-28, 2014
WV Population is not Expected to Grow
as Fast as Previously Predicted
2,000,000
Old Projection
1,900,000
New Projection
1,800,000
1,700,000
1,600,000
1,500,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
WV vs. US Demographics
WV population has always been among the oldest since 1970.
In 2010:
 WV median age = 40.5, 3rd in the nation.
 WV share of 65+ = 16.0 percent, 2nd in the nation.
Both the state and US population are aging. The path of aging,
however, is different:
 Between 2000 and 2010, the old & young population in the
nation are both growing but the old is growing faster.
 In the state, older population is growing while young population
is declining.
Between 2000 and 2010
Population in the Younger Age Groups Declined,
Population in the Older Age Groups Rose
800
2000
2010
621.5
575.4
Thousands
600
541.0
454.7
455.3
439.2
400
297.4
276.9
200
0
0-19
20-44
45-64
Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau
65+
In the next Two Decades, Population in the Younger
Age Groups is Expected to Continue to Decline
600,000
400,000
200,000
5-24
25-44
45-64
0
Population Distribution by Age Group, 2010
Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau
65+
WV Population 0-19 has been Declining since 1970
800.0
646.1
Thousands
600.0
503.4
439.2
400.0
200.0
0.0
1970
1990
Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau
2010
K-12 Head-Count Enrollment, WV
110,000
105,000
100,000
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Grade 1 - 5
Note: 2002 means 2001-2002 academic year.
Source: WV Department of Education
2008
Grade 6 - 8
2009
2010
2011
2012
Grade 9 - 12
2013
K-12 FTE Enrollment with vs. without Early Childhood Enrolment
285000
280000
275000
270000
265000
Include EC FTE Enrollment
Exclude EC FTE Enrollment
260000
255000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: “Early Childhood Effect on FTE Enrollment History” WV County Boards of Education, 2014
Grade Progression: Cohort Analysis
Cohort: Enrolled (Head-Count) in Grade K in 2001-02 to 2003-04
25.0
22.5
20.7
20.6
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.2
20.5
20.6
20.5
20.5
20.0
19.0
18.4
10.0
5.0
Grade-12
Grade-11
Grade-10
Grade-9
Grade-8
Grade-7
Grade-6
Grade-5
Grade-4
Grade-3
Grade-2
Grade-1
0.0
Grade-K
Thousands
15.0
Source: Author’s calculations of the West Virginia Department of Education head-count enrollment data
Estimated Population 18+ Enrolled in High School in 2011
16.0
14.1
Thousands
12.0
8.0
4.0
1.3
0.0
18-24
25+
Source: Author’s calculations of the US Census Bureau’s 2012 American Community Survey data
What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19
in the Next Two Decades?
600.0
535.9
Thousands
439.2
455.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
0-19
20-39
Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau
40-59
What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19
in the Next Two Decades?
Thousands
600.0
400.0
200.0
?
0.0
Estimated births
2010-2029
0-19
20-39
Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau
40-59
Factors Determining Population 0-19 in WV
 Birth Rate
 The Number of Women at Childbearing Age (15-44)
 Migration
General Fertility Rate, WV and the US
General Fertility Rate = Total Births per 1000 Women 15-44 Years of Age.
Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National
Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health Statistics Center
Births and Deaths, WV vs. the US
35000
West Virginia
WV-births
WV-deaths
45000
United States
40000
30000
35000
30000
25000
US-births (in 00)
US-deaths (in 00)
25000
20000
20000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
15000
15000
Sources: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health
Statistics Center.
Thousands
The Number of Women at Child-bearing Age
(15-44) is Declining
Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau
.. and is expected to Continue to Decline
120.0
B
C
110.0
A
Thousands
D
100.0
Total in 2010
=B+C+D
= 342.0 thousand
117.7
115.5
Assuming Death & Migration
are 0:
Total in 2020
=A+B+C
= 329.4 thousand
108.8
105.1
 a 12.6 thousand decline
90.0
80.0
5-14
15-24
25-34
Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau
35-44
WV Net-Migration, 1991-2013
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sources: US Census Bureau’s Population Estimates.
What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19
in the Next Two Decades?
600.0
535.9
439.2
398.7
Thousands
400.0
455.0
200.0
0.0
Estimated births20102029
0-19
20-39
40-59
Sources: US Census Bureau 2010 Census and Author’s calculations of vital statistics data from the West Virginia
Bureau for Public Health data, Health Statistics Center.
Estimated Accumulated 2010-2029 Births vs.
Population 0-19, WV
1000.0
20 Year Accumulated Births
Pop-0-19
800.1
800.0
Thousands
646.1
600.0
539.3
503.4
439.2
425.0
400.0
418.9
398.7
200.0
0.0
1970
1990
2010
2030
Sources: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau and 2014 WV Population Projection, Bureau of Business and
Economic Research
WV Population 0-19, 1970 to 2030
800.0
646.1
630.1
600.0
503.4
454.7
439.2
427.0
418.9
2010
2020
2030
400.0
200.0
0.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and the 2014 WV Population Projection
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, West Virginia University
2010-2020 Absolute Change of
Population 0-19 Years Old
West Virginia
Absolute Change of
Population 0-19
≤ −1,000
−1,000 - 0
0 - 750
> 750
Sources: Author’s calculations
2010-2020 Percent Change of
Population 0-19 Years Old
West Virginia
Absolute Change of
Population 0-19
≤ −1,000
−1,000 - 0
0 - 750
> 750
Sources: Author’s calculations
-5.0
Monongalia
Berkeley
Jefferson
Cabell
Webster
Mercer
Marion
Raleigh
Putnam
Hardy
Fayette
Preston
Greenbrier
Nicholas
Calhoun
Mason
Upshur
Kanawha
Summers
Taylor
Monroe
Harrison
Braxton
Tucker
Lewis
Clay
Grant
Randolph
Jackson
Wood
Lincoln
Ohio
Boone
Wirt
Mineral
Barbour
Morgan
Hampshire
Mingo
Wyoming
Hancock
Wayne
Roane
Marshall
Gilmer
Ritchie
Pocahontas
Pendleton
McDowell
Tyler
Wetzel
Doddridge
Pleasants
Logan
Brooke
2010-20 Percent Change of Population
0-19 Years Old by County, WV
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
Source: Author’s calculations
Summary
WV population is aging
WV population 0-19 is declining as a result of:
 Baby boomers get older
 Decline in births
 Migration?
WV young population (0-19) is expected to continue to
decline at least in the next decade
Maintaining K-12 enrollment will be a challenge
Counties with declining enrollment is expected to see
continued decline in enrollment
For other questions on demographic issues in the state, contact: [email protected]

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