Dr. Ron Brown, Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance

Report
Opportunities for the Future
Forest Products Industry
Ron Brown
President and Executive Director
Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance
North Carolina State University Pulp and Paper Foundation Annual Meeting
September 12, 2013
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Where Will the Paper Industry Be in 10-20 Years?
 United States: AF&PA
Better Practices, Better Planet
sustainability goals for 2020
 Canada: FPAC
Vision 2020 – One-third growth by
2020 from product innovations,
significant sustainability
improvement
Next-Level Process
Efficiency
Next-Level
Sustainability
Growth in Current
and New Markets
 Europe: CEPI
Roadmap for low-carbon economy
(To impact 2050, must develop new
technologies now!)
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Many Projections of the Industry’s Future
Europe:
Unfold the Future
2050 Low-Carbon
Roadmap
CEPI
Better Practices,
Better Planet 2020
AF&PA
Environmental
Vision
Envir Paper Network
State of the
Pulp Industry
Rod Fisher
Europe:
Horizons –
Vision 2030
EU FTP
End of
Tunnel?
PPI Survey
FPI Tech Roadmap
Agenda 2020
Canada:
Bio-Pathways
FPAC
Future
from Fibre
WBCSD
Living
Forests
WWF Intl
Transformations
Sten Nilsson
Europe: Strategic
Research Agenda
for 2020 EU FTP
Canada:
Vision 2020
FPAC
Growing
the Future
PWC
Manufacturing
the Future
McKinsey
Facts Trends
Vision 2050
WBCSD
Vision 2050:
New Agenda for
Business WBCSD
Global Trends 2030
Natl Intelligence Council
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Consensus: A Vibrant Future Industry
Worldwide demand of traditional paper products grows 1.5%
per year average over next 40 years
• Steady growth in packaging grades
• Printing and writing grades continue declining to 2030
Many opportunities in the emerging biobased economy
•
•
•
•
Forest resource is excellent foundation
No competition with food
Biobased materials offer value, not competition for fiber
Integrate with existing manufacturing
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Opportunity: Forest Biomaterials
in the Emerging Bioeconomy
 Get the highest possible value from resources – wood,
forest residuals, recycled fiber
 Develop new markets while growing markets for traditional
wood and paper products
 $200 billion a year global market potential (FPAC)
$100 billion a year for biobased polymers (Lux)
(U.S. forest products are $200 billion)
• Green chemicals and biofuels
• Plastics
• Lightweight composites
• Bendable concrete with cellulosic
nanomaterials (example shown)
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Forest Biomaterials:
$200 Billion Global Market Potential
(FPAC Biopathways, 2011)
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The Bioeconomy Requires Innovation
Unfold the Future:
The Forest Fibre
Industry
2050 Roadmap to a
Low-Carbon BioEconomy
CEPI, 2011
www.unfoldthefuture.eu
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Opportunity: Improved and New Products
 Lighter, stronger paper and paperboard
• Strength from cellulosic nanomaterials
 Higher-value, specialized papers and packaging
•
•
•
•
Novel optical properties
Barrier to vapors, reduced sensitivity to moisture
Niche products for population that is aging and more urban
Smart packaging
 New products
• Flexible electronics (example shown)
• Clear films from renewables
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Opportunity: Wood and Fiber
Wood is available.
Wood removals in 2050 three
times current rate.
(WWF Living Forests, 2012)
• Steadily growing demand for wood
and paper products
• Escalation in wood for bioenergy
Annual Wood Removals
WWF Living Forests Model
(million cubic meters)
2010
2030
2050
3,401
7,168 –
7,553
11,356 –
13,082
Forest plantations are more productive than natural forests
and will become larger portion of global wood supply.
Global demand for long-fiber kraft pulp is opportunity for
southern U.S.
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Opportunity: Sustainable Manufacturing
Many calls for a sustainable industry
Renewable energy – good progress with fuels and CHP
More attention needed on mill water and energy demands
• Concerns about future access to water in some locations
• Little or no recent progress in water or energy use per ton
Envir.
Paper
Network
chart for
2000-08
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Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing
Improving sustainability metrics is difficult without new
equipment
• North American mills mostly are well-optimized and have
much old equipment
• World’s oldest fleet of bleached kraft pulp mills in N. America
Best available technologies offer 20-25% reduction in
energy use per ton in U.S.
• High capital investment needed to implement BAT
New technologies if developed could give another 20%
reduction
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Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing
Recovered fiber will become larger share of furnish
• Higher waste recovery rates, lower fiber quality
• Impacts on strength and mill operations
Mills will become host platforms for bioproducts
• Mill infrastructure is good foundation for producing
biomaterials as add-on processes
• Integrate process systems to reduce energy, water, wastes,
capital
• Opportunity to improve mill sustainability metrics
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Opportunity: Marketing Industry Advantages
Forest products offer many advantages to society
• Renewable raw material from sustainable forests
• Recyclable products, high rate of recovery and reuse
• Renewable energy
The paper industry intends to launch a new marketing
program in 2014 – do a better job of telling our story
• Paper Check-Off (www.papercheckoff.com)
• USDA-sanctioned fund from producers
• Organizational activities led by AF&PA
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Opportunity: Breakthrough Technologies
Urgent need for breakthrough technologies to address
the opportunities
• New and improved products
• More efficient manufacturing
• Get “a better story to tell”
Start development now to be ready for first installations
by 2030 to have large impact in 2050
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Challenge: Outlook for Innovation Is Bleak
Industry spends less on R&D than competitive industries:
• R&D % of sales: 0.24% paper, 0.7% textiles, 1.3% plastics
• Patent intensity: 1.2 paper, 4.1 textiles, 10.7 plastics
• Lacks capacity for much mid and long-term research
Federal R&D spending is available but mostly bypasses our
industry.
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Agenda 2020 – A Unique Voice for the Industry
• Identifies full set of industry technology
needs (2010 Forest Products Industry Technology Roadmap)
• Drives consensus on R&D priorities
• Promotes R&D programs funded in part by
government
• Informs government agencies and
universities about industry research needs
• Member-funded 501(c)(3) organization
• Not a lobbying group
• Supports and works closely with AF&PA
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Agenda 2020 R&D Priorities
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Conclusion: Pursue the Opportunities
Attractive opportunities exist and need new technologies
• Forest biomaterials
• Sustainable manufacturing
• Improved and new products
Best technologies available today are expensive and not
sufficient to achieve market potential and sustainability
Research on breakthroughs is needed now
• More money for industry R&D
• New technologies must be in place by 2030 to have large
impact by 2050
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Thank You
For More Information
Ron Brown
President & Executive Director
Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance
[email protected]
202-463-2742
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