Team Presentation

Report
Ship Maintenance Costs
Brittany Basilone
Rudy Catahan
Paul Heroman
Jean-Ali Tavassoli
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1
All Hands on Deck
• Team
o
o
o
o
Brittany Basilone, MS OR (Fall 2012)
Rudy Catahan, MS SE (Fall 2013)
Paul Heroman, MS OR (Fall 2012)
Jean-Ali Tavassoli, MS OR (Fall 2012)
• Sponsor
o NAVSEA Cost Community
• Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division (NSWCCD) Code 2110, Cost
Effectiveness Branch
o Molly Mertz, Cost Team Lead
• NAVSEA 05C Cost Engineering and Industrial Analysis Group
o Technical Warrant Holder for Cost Analysis
• Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA)
o Mike Carey, VAMOSC Program Manager
* Views expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not reflect views of the US Navy
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2
Agenda
• Introduction
o Problem Definition
o Types of Maintenance
o Data Sources
• Analysis
o DDG-51 Flight 1 Historical (First half of life)
o DDG-51 Flight 1 Forecast (Second half of life)
• Wrap-Up
o Other Analysis Performed
o Further Studies
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3
Introduction
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4
Problem Definition
• Theoretical Modeling
• Reality
o Estimating ship maintenance is currently
very static (historical average applied to
every year of estimate)
o Although aging impacts are inherent in
the average, estimates are not as dynamic
as desired
Maintenance Costs
(Fictional)
Historical Actuals
Theoretical Modeling
o Maintenance costs are not the same
every year
o Goal is to adjust cost estimating models
to better reflect reality
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
100
128
120
128
130
128
140
128
150
128
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Purpose
• Importance of cost estimating is at an all-time high
o Increased scrutiny of defense budgets/Fiscal constraints
o Navy must be better equipped to anticipate costs
• Lifecycle cost estimating includes 4 phases:
o
o
o
o
Research & Development
Procurement
Operations & Sustainment (O&S) – tends to be most expensive
Disposal
*Image from Defense Acquisition University, www.dau.mil
$
O&S
R&D
Maintenance
Disposal
Years
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Deliverables
• Sponsor has requested the following:
1. Age curve/factor for DDG-51class at appropriate levels of maintenance
2. Forecasted factors for future DDG-51 maintenance costs
3. Guidance/documentation on analysis & application
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7
Types of Maintenance
Organizational Level
• Performed by ship’s crew
• Includes only material costs
Intermediate Level
• Includes tasks that are outside crew’s capabilities
• Can be performed pier side, underway, or at an I-level
facility
Depot Level
• Typically performed at a shipyard, in dry dock or
pier side to accomplish more intense maintenance
tasks
• Determined by Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
* Funding source has large impact on maintenance categorization
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Data
• Visibility and Management of Operating and Support Costs
(VAMOSC)
o Congressionally mandated database that collects/houses O&S costs for the entire Navy
o Use in analysis:
• O-Level: material costs & manhours
• I-Level: labor/material costs & manhours
• D-Level: scheduled maintenance costs
Ship Characteristics
Class Name
Ship Type
Commission Date
VAMOSC Years of Data
Hulls used in dataset
Ages represented in dataset
Number of ship-years of data
DDG-51 Flight I
Arleigh Burke
Guided Missile Destroyer
7/4/1991
1992-2011
DDG-51 to DDG-71
1 to 16
315
FFG 7
Oliver Hazard Perry
Guided Missile Frigate
1/29/1983
1984-2011
FFG-36 to FFG-61
1 to 28
654
CG-47
Ticonderoga
Guided Missile Cruiser
1/22/1983
1984-2011
CG-47 to CG-72
1 to 22
540
• OPNAVNOTE 4700 (dated August 2011)
o Annual budgeting/scheduling document from the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) that lists the
maintenance timeline necessary for a ship class to reach its Expected Service Life
o Use in analysis: D-Level planned maintenance
• Naval Vessel Register
o Official Inventory of US Naval Ships and Service Craft
o Use in analysis: technical summary of each ship class
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Analysis:
DDG-51 Flight 1
Historical
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DDG-51 Flight 1
Class Name:
Ship Type:
NVR Reference Hull:
Overall Length:
Extreme Beam:
Maximum Nav. Draft:
Light Displacement:
Full Displacement:
Hull Material:
Number of Propellers:
Propulsion Type:
Officers:
Enlisted:
Arleigh Burke
Guided Missile Destroyer
DDG-51
505 ft
66 ft
31 ft
6,691 LT
8,960 LT
Steel Hull, Steel Superstructure
2
Gas Turbines
26
330
DDG 51 Flight 1 will be the focus of our analysis
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O-Level Maintenance
• O-Level costs include
material only (performed
by ship’s crew)
• O-Level median costs
generally increase with age
• O-Level median manhours
show similar trend
o Manhours show greater variability
across age levels than total cost
o Variability driven by few ship years
that reflect high manhours that do
not translate into high costs
• Suggests that these
maintenance actions are not
material-intensive
• Future research required to
gain more insight into these
outliers
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0-5 years
5-10 years
Age Progression
• Throughout the first 15 years of
life, O-level maintenance costs
increase
• Distributions show different
shapes, along with increasing
means
10-15 years
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I-Level Maintenance
• I-Level costs include Labor
and Material
o Labor is the main cost driver (~85%
of I-Level costs)
o Material costs are generally
consistent across ages
• Median costs and manhours
generally increase with age
o Variability tends to increase with
age
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0-5 years
5-10 years
10-15 years
Age Progression
• Bin count and size are thrown off by
outliers in years 5-15
• Although costs appear to increase
with age, histogram view is not
appropriate
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D-Level Maintenance
• D-Level maintenance is planned discretely by CNO
o Methodology for O/I-Level analysis cannot be applied to D-Level
• D-Level maintenance periods scheduled by OPNAVNOTE
4700
Month
• Schedule above represents a notional profile
o Guidance changes every year
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D-Level Maintenance
• Compared actual cost returns with OPNAVNOTE 4700 guidance
o
Converted manday guidance to notional FY13$ for comparison (labor and material)
• Most hulls have lower cumulative costs than planned
o
o
o
Actual costs reflect multiple iterations of OPNAVNOTE 4700 guidance
• Notional line represents latest guidance
Possibility that ships are not being maintained to the extent required (unable to confirm)
Possibility that work is being completed at another level of maintenance (unable to confirm )
OPNAVNOTE 4700 FY13$
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17
Analysis:
DDG-51 Flight 1
Forecast
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Forecast Analysis
• Methodology
o Normalized general aging trends to compare multiple combatant classes
• Quantified aging impacts that can be applied to future ship platforms
o Forecasted future maintenance costs of DDG-51 Flight 1
Ship Characteristics
Class Name
Ship Type
NVR Reference Hull
Commission Date
Overall Length (Ft)
Light Displacement (LT)
Full Displacement (LT)
Hull Material
Propulsion Type
Officers
Enlisted
VAMOSC Query Date
VAMOSC Years of Data
Hulls used in dataset
Ages represented in dataset
Number of ship-years of data
DDG-51 Flight I
Arleigh Burke
Guided Missile Destroyer
DDG-51
7/4/1991
505
6,691
8,960
Steel Hull, Steel
Superstructure
Gas Turbines
26
330
FFG 7
Oliver Hazard Perry
Guided Missile Frigate
FFG-36
1/29/1983
453
3,174
4,100
Steel Hull, Aluminum
Superstructure
Gas Turbines
19
200
CG-47
Ticonderoga
Guided Missile Cruiser
CG-47
1/22/1983
567
7,646
10,142
Steel Hull, Aluminum
Superstructure
Gas Turbines
33
341
10/3/2012
1992-2011
DDG-51 to DDG-71
1 to 16
315
10/12/2012
1984-2011
FFG-36 to FFG-61
1 to 28
654
10/10/2012
1984-2011
CG-47 to CG-72
1 to 22
540
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O-Level Cost Aging Factors
slope
R2
Annual Adder (FY13$/LT)
DDG-51 Flight I
FFG 7
$23
$1
0.89
0.00
CG-47
$10
0.71
FFG-7 shows an
increasing trend in terms
of manhours, but not in
terms of costs.
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I-Level Cost Aging Factors
slope
R2
Annual Adder (FY13$/LT)
DDG-51 Flight I
FFG 7
$24
$25
0.88
0.72
CG-47
$18
0.82
Classes generally show
similar aging factors
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21
O-Level DDG-51 Forecast
• DDG-51 Flight 1 data available through age 16
• Leveraged other historical combatant trends to extrapolate
future of DDG-51 maintenance costs
• Range of forecasts can be used to develop risk ranges
Possible future
trends based on
other historical
combatants
O-Level Forecasting Summary
Ship Class
DDG
FFG
Ages
1-16
7-28
Type of Trendline
Linear
Linear
R2
0.89
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0.00
CG
1-22
Linear
0.71
22
I-Level DDG-51 Forecast
• DDG-51 Flight 1 data available through age 16
• Leveraged other historical combatant trends to extrapolate future of
DDG-51 maintenance costs
• Range of forecasts can be used to develop risk ranges
Possible future
trends based on
other historical
combatants
I-Level Forecasting Summary
Ship Class
DDG
FFG
Ages
1-16
7-28
Type of Trendline
Linear
Exponential
R2
0.89
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0.86
CG
1-22
Exponential
0.91
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Wrap-Up
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Other Analysis Performed
• Investigated non-cost element effects on trends
o Operational Tempo: Steaming Hours Underway/Not Underway
o Enlisted Personnel count
• Considered stochastic approach
o Visually inspected distributions of cost by age using histograms
o Found best fit probability density function
• Started initial analysis on Amphibious vessels
o O/I-Level analysis performed
o Further data understanding necessary
• Researched existing studies
o Service Life Extension Plan (SLEP) Study for Amphibious vessel
o Technical Foundation Paper for Amphibious vessel
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25
Further Studies
• Refine current approach
o Gain additional data understanding
• Research cause of outliers
• Consider why planned maintenance costs do not match actual costs expended
o Compare actual costs with budgeted costs
• Explore VAMOSC Depot Universe to obtain actual start and end dates of
maintenance periods
• Overlay annual O&MN allocations to compare actuals costs with budgets
o Examine if trends hold across multiple ship types
• Submarines
• Air Craft Carriers
• Amphibious Vessels
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Deliverables
• Sponsor has requested the following:
1. Age curve/factor for DDG-51class at appropriate levels of maintenance
 DDG-51 Flight 1 aging factors for O-Level and I-Level maintenance costs
2. Forecasted factors for future DDG-51 maintenance costs
 DDG-51 Flight 1 forecasted aging factors based on FFG-7 and CG-47 classes
3. Guidance/documentation on analysis & application
 Guidance/Documentation of analysis and application included in package to
sponsor
• Aging Impact analysis will be incorporated into estimates
produced by the, NAVSEA 05C, Navy’s technical warrant
holder for cost.
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Thank you, you were an
ORSE-ome audience 
Questions?
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Bibliography
•
•
•
•
http://www.navy.mil/view_image.asp?id=130721
http://www.navy.mil/view_image.asp?id=68934
http://www.navy.mil/view_image.asp?id=137844
https://www.dau.mil/
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