More WMD

Report
Chemical Weapons
How are they
“unconventional?”
I. History of CW: See Readings
Note the process of “agent escalation” –
tear gas  chlorine  phosgene 
mustard  lewisite, etc.
Note also the efforts to control CW
Finally, compare military effects of CW to
conventional explosives
II. Effects of CW
A. Distinction between protected /
unprotected targets: CW seldom kills
protected troops.
B. Specific Agents Have Different Effects
1. “Poison Gas:” Blood Gases and
Pulmonary Agents
a. Casualties: High within small areas
b. Uses on the battlefield: Quickly dispersed by
wind and diluted by air
c. Recent uses: Used for executions in
enclosed areas, used by Iraqi insurgents
d. Sources of Condemnation
i.
ii.
iii.
Use for executions and mass murder
(Holocaust)
Secondary effect on medical personnel during
surgery (release of toxic gases)
Agent Escalation and Mass casualties in WW I
2. Vesicants
a. Casualties:
i. Mustard: Few in short-term but many over
long period. High proportion of wounded to
killed.
ii. Lewisite: Many casualties quickly – death
can occur within minutes.
b. Uses on the battlefield: Mass casualties
to overload medical systems, force use
of bulky CW equipment, secondary area
contamination
c. Recent uses: Most common agents used
in modern wars (Yemen, Iran-Iraq)
d. Sources of Condemnation
i.
ii.
Invisibility of threat – Soldiers can acquire lethal doses
without realizing it, then die painfully days later
Nature of injuries – Blistering and burns. Example
(Iranian casualty from Iraqi mustard attack):
3. Nerve Agents
Casualties: Very high within area of exposure.
Decline with distance and time
b. Uses on the battlefield: Mass fatalities, Area
contamination, force use of bulky CW equipment
c. Recent uses: Iraqi use against Kurds, Aum Shinrikyo
d. Sources of condemnation: Invisibility, pre-existing
norms against CW
a.
4. Incapacitants (CS, BZ, Fentanyl)
a. Casualties: Designed to temporarily disable
without killing. Overdoses can be lethal.
b. Uses on the Battlefield: Flush enemies from
bunkers, disable command/control, avoiding
civilian deaths in riots and hostage rescue
situations
c. Recent Uses: US in Vietnam, Iraq against Iran
and Kurds, Waco and Moscow theater sieges
d. Sources of condemnation: Agent escalation in
WW I and subsequent conflicts
III. The Law of CW Use
(Proliferation will come later…)
A. Declaration of St. Petersburg (1868) –
Renounces use of small (< 400 g)
“fulminating or inflammable” projectiles in
war (explosive bullets) between
signatories
B. Hague Convention (1899) – Renounces
use of projectiles that diffuse
asphyxiating or deleterious gases
(Germany claims chlorine cylinder attack
doesn’t violate – later claims Mustard
isn’t a gas)
C. Geneva Protocol (1925)
Prohibited the use of "asphyxiating gas, or
any other kind of gas, liquids, substances
or similar materials“
Only applied to interstate wars (states
reserved the right to use CW against their
own people or colonies)
Many nations reserve right to retaliate
against violators
Ambiguous use of “other” is interpreted to
allow nonlethal CW
D. The Chemical Weapons
Convention
Outlaws all use of CW agents except:
“1. Industrial, agricultural, research, medical, pharmaceutical
or other peaceful purposes;
2. Protective purposes, namely those purposes directly
related to protection against toxic chemicals and to protection
against chemical weapons;
3. Military purposes not connected with the use of chemical
weapons and not dependent on the use of the toxic
properties of chemicals as a method of warfare;
4. Law enforcement including domestic riot control
purposes.”
Note that riot control agents are now prohibited
in warfare
Also note that toxic chemicals are OK if their
other properties (flammability, explosiveness,
etc) are the key to their military effectiveness
E. Which countries can legally use CW?
Not bound by Geneva Protocol or CWC:
–
–
–
–
–
Bahamas (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Comoros (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Congo (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Myanmar (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Somalia
Bound by Geneva Protocol but not CWC:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Central African Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Dominican Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Guinea-Bissau (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Israel (signed CWC but has not ratified)
Angola
Barbados
North Korea
Egypt
Iraq (bound by UN cease-fire agreement of 1991)
Lebanon
Syrian Arab Republic
III. Are CW WMD?
A. Problem: Accurate modeling difficult. Examples:
1. Single release may generate multiple plumes
2. Buildings affect dispersion
B. DHS Scenarios
Mustard/Lewisite released by aircraft over
stadium of 100,000 people
– 150 fatalities; 70,000 hospitalized
Sarin injected into three large office
buildings using six injectors
– 6,000 fatalities (95% of building occupants);
350 injuries
C. Rough Estimation
Model plume as if no terrain exists. Plume is
teardrop-shaped (if wind > 10 km/hr) or circular
(if little wind) from point of release
Plume is more elongated as wind increases, but
also less concentrated
Divide plume into zones
Assign each zone a lethality level (% killed)
based on likely dose
Estimate # of people in each zone and apply
lethality levels to determine deaths
Sample Lethality Table
D. Persistence: Difficult to estimate economic
damages or area-denial importance
Since attacks have little effect on
protected targets, real intent is often to
degrade efficiency through contamination
(requires bulky protective gear)
E. Chemicals compared to
bioweapons and nuclear weapons
F. Example: Attack on NYC
Map = County
Approx.Census
7 milesTracts)
across
(King’s
0
Wind 15
MPH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Attack Parameters
Nerve Gas (Sarin) sprayed at ground level
from trucks over 2-block area
About 2000 Gallons used
Point of attack
0
Wind 15
MPH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Plume by Time
3 minutes
Wind 15
MPH
6 minutes
12 minutes
Plume by Time
3 minutes
Wind 15
MPH
6 minutes
12 minutes
Next Step: Figure
out how many are
in each plume
area
Zooming in on
affected area….
Next Step: Figure
out how many are
in each plume
area
Averaging
Population per
Census Tract
Average People
845
2363
3717
5649
10934
Next Step: Figure
out how many are
in each plume
area
Count Census
Tracts in each zone
AvePop 0-3 m
3-6 m
6-12 m
845
1
0
5
2363
2
7
13
3717
0
4
4
5649
0
.75
1.5
10934
.67
0
1
How many were exposed?
Simple model assumes no protection – as if
everyone was standing outside
AvePop
0-3 m
3-6 m
6-12 m
845
1
0
5
2363
2
7
13
3717
0
4
4
5649
0
.75
1.5
10934
.67
0
1
How many were exposed?
Multiply number of tracts by average tract
population…..
AvePop
0-3 m
3-6 m
6-12 m
845
845
0
4225
2363
5726
16541
30719
3717
0
14868
14868
5649
0
4237
8474
10934
7326
0
10934
How many were exposed?
Multiply number of tracts by average tract
population…..
AvePop
0-3 m
3-6 m
6-12 m
845
845
0
4225
2363
5726
16541
30719
3717
0
14868
14868
5649
0
4237
8474
10934
7326
0
10934
TOTALS
13897
35646
69220
Compare to average lethality for
each zone
Problem: requires data on aerosol
dispersion given wind speed and
quantities used. Pre-calculated tables
best.
Sample data for Sarin:
– 3 min zone = 30% dead
– 3-6 min zone = 15% dead
– 6-12 min zone = 5% dead
Adding up deaths
Zone
Exposed
Lethality
DEAD
3 min
13897
30%
4169
6 min
35646
15%
5347
12 min
69220
5%
3461
TOTAL
12977

similar documents