Slide 1

Report
Please Stand By for
John Thomas
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Global Trading Dispatch
The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
“Hysteria Hits”
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
June 6, 2012
www.madhedgefundtrader.com
MHFT Global Strategy Luncheons
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2012 Schedule
June 11 Beverly Hills
June 29 Chicago
July 5 New York
July 6-13 Queen Mary II
New York to Southampton
July 16 London
July 17 Paris
July 18 Frankfurt
July 27 Zermatt
October 19 Washington DC
October 26 San Francisco
November 8 Orlando
January 3, 2013 Chicago
MHFT Global Strategy Luncheons
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Beverly Hills, CA
June 11
Chicago, IL
June 29
MHFT Global Strategy Luncheons
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New York, NY
July 5
Seminar at Sea
July 11, 2012
Queen Mary 2
Trade Alert Performance
*May Final +20.5%
*June MTD +0.66%
*2012 YTD -5.23%
*First 80 weeks of Trading
+ 35.0%
*Versus +2.8% for the S&P500
A 32.2% outperformance of the index
60 out of 89 closed trades profitable
67% success rate on closed trades
Portfolio Review
Flipping to the Long Side Side
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Trading Book
Asset Class Breakdown
Risk Adjusted Basis
current capital at risk
1
Risk On
2
3
4
(FXY) long Sept $121 puts
10.00%
(TBT) short Treasury ETF
10.00%
(HPQ) long call spread
25.00%
(AAPL) long call spread
25.00%
(JPM) long call spread
25.00%
(TLT) short call spread
10.00%
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Risk Off
12
13
14
(FXY) short call spread
total net position
-10.00%
95.00%
The Economy-Heading South
*We’re still paying for the pull forward
*Nonfarm payroll was a disaster at 69,000
*Weekly jobless claims up10,000 to 383,000
*Q1 GPD slowed to 1.9%, now slower
*Chinese slowdown is accelerating, soft to hard landing?
*May Chicago PMI 56.2 to 52.7
*Pending homes sales -5.5%, -12% in the West
*All consistent with a low 2.0% GDP growth rate
Weekly Jobless Claims
The Short Term Trend is Up
Break the trend line and the double dip threat is on
Bonds-Capitulation
*Yields broke the 1.80%-2.10% range
soared to 1.42%
*The final capitulation top?
*Deflation still rules
*No QE3 until SPX drops below 1,100
*Twist ends June 30, will it be renewed?
Will the Fed shift to mortgages?
*Bond bid is global, Japan at 0.80%,
German as 1.2%
*Bonds got it right once again, ignored the entire
equity rally since October
(TNX) 1.42% yield hit
Short Treasuries (TBT)
Junk Bonds (HYG)
Stocks-Hysteria Takes Hold
*We are 10.8% into a 5%-15% move down
*This is not 2011, panic is getting overdone,
May nonfarm was still a gain, not a 700,000 loss
*200 day moving average broke, 1250 next stop
1200 final target
*58% of S&P 500 stocks yielding more than 10 year Treasuries
*Earnings downgrades are heading our way from July
*All Europe driven now, expect a lot of worry, but no crash
*No getting the VIX action you would expect with this move
topped out at $28, huge selling at $26
*Start thinking about flipping from defensive to aggressive
(SPX)
Double Short S&P 500 ETF(SDS)
NASDAQ
(VIX)
(AAPL)
(AAPL) The Defensive Play
Deep out-of-the-money Call Spread
Cost
Buy 6 X August, 2012 $400 Calls at……………. $141.20
Sell short 6 X August, 2012 $450 calls at …….$97.20
Net cost ………………………………………………………$44.00
Profit at Expiration
Value at Expiration……………………………………….$50.00
Cost………………………………………………………………$44.00
Net Profit……………………………………………….………$6.00
$6.00/$44.00 = 13.6%
Profitable at all points over $444 in (AAPL)
(AAPL) The Aggressive Play
The long dated In-the-money Call Spread
Cost
Buy 6 X January, 2013 $540 Calls at……………… $82.60
Sell short 6 X January, 2013 $640 calls at …...$38.00
Net cost ………………………………………………………$44.60
Profit at Expiration
Value at Expiration…………………………………….$100.00
Cost……………………………………………………………$44.60
Net Profit……………………………………………….……$55.40
$55.40/$44.60 = 124.2%
Profitable at all points over $584.60 in (AAPL)
Russell 2000 (IWM)
Spain ETF (EWP)
(EEM)
Advisor Shares Active Bear ETF (HDGE)
The Dollar
*Current dollar move up getting tired
*Profit taking on Euro creates a short term
floor at $1.22, need time to digest recent move
*Fearing the next LTRO, QE3, risks are rising
*US stock sell off created meaningful dollar
and yen strength with “RISK OFF”
*Japanese intervention on Monday lasted 5 minutes,
caused 50 cent spike
*Watch the Ausie for global risk timing, stabilizing above $0.97,
Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 0.25% to 3.5%, great China slowing play
Long Dollar Basket (UUP)
Euro (FXE)
Australian Dollar (FXA)
Japanese Yen (FXY)
(YCS)
Energy
*”RISK OFF” hits oil with everything else
*Supply glut decimates the market
*Holding at $85, next target is $75
*Paying the price for the warm winter
*China slowdown is accelerating downturn
*Nat Gas gave up half of recent rally
*Final target $1.50, selling opportunity setting up
Crude
Natural Gas
Copper (CU)
Precious Metals
*Seasonal strength kicks in during August
*Increasing chance of QE means firming
bid for gold and silver
*$1,500 holding for gold, $26 for silver
*May begin a month of base building
*Asian central bank buying is putting in a floor
Gold
Gold
Silver
Silver
(Platinum)
Palladium
The Ags
*No trade-”RISK OFF” hits grains along
with everything else
*Several major Chinese buys have no impact
prices, coming in on every sell off
*Soybeans gave up their entire 20% rally
*Now Chinese are cancelling orders for
many commodities, including corn,
soybeans, cotton
*Market trades like the record crop
forecasts will come true.
*Stay away and wait for bad weather
(CORN)
Soybeans (SOYB)
Real Estate
February, 2012
Existing Homes Sales
institutional buying of SFH has created a new market, taking 60% of the market, shortage of foreclosed homes
Trade Sheet
The bottom line: Too late to buy, too early to sell
*Stocks- sell rallies
*Bonds- sell rallies from here, 1.42% hit
*Commodities- sell rallies, especially oil and copper
*Currencies- sell Euro, sell yen
*Precious Metals – sell rallies in Gold and silver
*Volatility-stand aside, too late to buy
*The ags – stand aside, no trade
*Real estate- rent, don’t buy
Next Webinar is on Wednesday, June 20, 2012
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