Urbanisation, Water Scarcity and Climate Change - Hrdp

Report
Urbanisation, Water and Climate
Change:
A case of Jaipur city
M.S. Rathore (CEDSJ)
and ISET Team
Shashikant Chopde, Sarah-Opitz
Stapleton, Marcus Moench
Context…
 India rapidly urbanising
 Urban areas engine of economic
development
 Pressures: Push and pull migration
from rural areas
 Climate Change—exacerbate
challenge of water supply and
protecting ecosystems
Context
 Challenge: Meeting water supply
demand of increasing urban
population
 Relation between Climate Change and
water resource conditions
 Nature and size of migrant population
 Deliver water supply to poor/ vulnerable
where there is lack of infrastructure
Jaipur City
 High rural-urban migration rates
 Rapidly expanding peri-urban areas: Land use changes
reducing recharge
 Limited water supply and water quality issues
 Groundwater over-extraction, pollution and less
recharge
 The key surface water sources (Bisalpur Dam) filled
only few times
 High rainfall variability in Banas Basin; drought years
common
 So, CC impacts—delay in monsoon, high intense
showers over short period, dry years poses
additional challenge to key surface water supplies
Factors of Human Migration
Changing Status of groundwater in
Rajasthan
Category
1984
1988
2001
2004
2008
Over Exploited
(>100%)
22
(9.3)
41
(17.0)
86
(36.0)
140
(59.3)
164
(69.5)
Critical
(90 to 100%)
6
(2.5)
26
(11.0)
80
(34.0)
50
(21.2)
34
(14.4)
Semi critical
(70 to 90%)
27
(11.5)
34
(14.0)
21
(9.0)
14
(5.9)
8
(3.4)
Safe
(70%)
181
(76.7)
135
(57.0)
49
(21.0)
32
(13.6)
30
(12.7)
Banas River Basin
Total Free Catchment Area and Live Storage Capacity
of Existing Irrigation Dams in Banas River Basin,
Rajasthan
Type of
Scheme
Number of
Projects
Free Catchment
Area, Km2
Live Storage
Mm3
Major
7
6,133
425
Medium
33
11,337
816
Minor
1219
16,496
1,055
Total
1259
33,965
2,296
Frequency of occurrence of drought and its intensity
since 1901-2006 in the Banas River Basin
Districts of
Intensity and frequency of Drought
Per cent of
Total Year
Normal years
Very Severe
Severe
Moderate
Light
Pali
8
12
19
15
50.9
52
Jaipur
11
12
17
10
47.2
56
8
16
14
14
49.1
54
Tonk
9
11
11
18
46.2
57
Swai Madhopur
8
8
15
23
50.9
52
Bhilwara
3
9
10
15
37.0
63
Chittorgarh
10
12
12
13
44.3
59
10
14
14
9
44.3
59
Bundi
7
16
15
13
48.1
55
Average of Basin
8
12
14
15
46.4
57
Overall
Rajasthan
10
10
15
15
47.2
56
Year wise Water Balance in Bisalpur Dam.
(in TMC)
Years
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
Total
collection of
water(TMC)
Total Use
0.100
0.790
1.630
1.850
1.410
3.630
8.120
14.000
5.800
7.770
38.700
28.390
38.700
22.252
0.100
0.790
1.140
1.490
1.410
2.570
4.960
8.800
4.270
5.290
17.090
17.690
21.750
14.768
Water Used
(TMC)
Irrigation
Drinking
0.420
0.300
1.250
5.980
7.380
9.852
8.218
0.002
0.500
0.640
1.200
1.260
1.300
1.650
3.590
1.860
2.715
1.810
2.620
2.570
1.630
Evaporation
Losses
0.098
0.290
0.500
0.290
0.150
0.850
3.010
3.960
2.410
2.575
9.300
7.690
9.326
4.920
The Project
 CEDSJ and ISET: Urbanisation, Water Scarcity and
Climate Change: A case of Jaipur city
 Links between Climate Variability, Groundwater
Overdraft and migration inflows
Methodology
Review of literature and policies
Details surveys of migration
Climate Downscaling for Banas River Basin: projected
monthly time series of precipitation (2009-2040)
 Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model:
Current and future water availability and demand
scenarios




Climate Downscaling
 Two GCMs (CGCM3 and ECHAM5)
 Two emission scenarios (A1B and A2)
 Hence four climate change scenarios
are considered namely CGCM3 A1B,
CGCM3 A2, ECHAM5 A1B, and ECHAM5
A2
Common SRES emission scenarios
(Source: Environment Canada 2011).
WEAP setup for Jaipur water supply system
Variance in Bisalpur storage (MCM)
Huge unmet demand even without Climate Change
Jaipur Combined: Domestic, Industrial uses
Key Findings..
 Sequential drought years
 Failure of current water supply system for
urban demand
 Ability to respond dependant on availability
of key data sets
 Official estimates of river flows differ
greatly between two data sets
 Challenge to assess future water availability
given uncertainty in CC projections
Key Findings..
 Reliable future streamflow record
generation a challenge given the data
available
 Hence, factors contributing to vulnerability
of Jaipur were assessed.
 High dependence on single water supply source
 High Losses in distribution systems
 Extensive pollution and degradation of
ecosystems and groundwater
Options for resilient water supply
system for Jaipur
 Water supply diversification
 Improved efficiency of water supply
delivery
 Improved maintenance of ecosystems
and local watersheds
 Recharge of aquifers in peri-urban
areas and Groundwater management
 Policy: Strict enforcement of Landuse
and revision of Masterplan
Thank You !
[email protected]
[email protected]

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