DOEShortCourse - LISA

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LISA Short Course Series
Basics of Design of Experiments
Ana Maria Ortega-Villa
Fall 2014
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
About me
Home country Colombia.
5th year PhD student in Statistics
Ms. Statistics, Virginia Tech
Ms. Operations research, Universidad
de los Andes, Colombia.
• Instructor: STAT 4705 Probability and
Statistics for Engineers.
• Contact: [email protected]
•
•
•
•
LISA:
LISA:DOE
R Basics
Fall
Fall 2014
2013
Laboratory for Interdisciplinary
Statistical Analysis
LISA helps VT researchers benefit from the use of
Statistics
Collaboration:
Visit our website to request personalized statistical advice and assistance with:
Designing Experiments • Analyzing Data • Interpreting Results
Grant Proposals • Software (R, SAS, JMP, Minitab...)
LISA statistical collaborators aim to explain concepts in ways useful for your research.
Great advice right now: Meet with LISA before collecting your data.
LISA also offers:
Educational Short Courses: Designed to help graduate students apply statistics in their research
Walk-In Consulting: Available Monday-Friday from 1-3 PM in the Old Security Building (OSB) for questions
<30 mins. See our website for additional times and locations.
All services are FREE for VT researchers. We assist with research—not class projects or homework.
www.lisa.stat.vt.edu
What are we doing?
1. Introduction to Design of Experiments
2. DOE main principles
• Randomization
• Replication
• Local control of error
3. Complete Randomized Design
4. Randomized Complete Block Design
5. Introduction to factorial Designs
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
Introduction to Design of
Experiments
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
What is an Experiment?
An experiment can be thought of as a test or series
of tests in which we make controlled changes to the
input variables of a process or a system, in order to
determine how they change the output of interest.
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https://weakinteractions.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/s1e1.jpg?w=450
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Why do we design experiments?
MAXIMIZE:
• Probability of having a successful experiment.
• Information gain: the results and conclusions
derived depend on the way information was
collected.
MINIMIZE
• Unwanted effects from other sources of variation.
• Cost of experiment if results are limited.
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What would be an alternative?
Observational study:
• The researcher has little to no control over sources of
variation and simply observes what is happening.
• The researcher can only determine information about
how our inputs are related to the outputs… we cannot
determine causation.
Examples:
• Surveys
• Weather Patterns
• Stock market price
• etc.
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http://fluxicon.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/observeandreport.jpg
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Designed experiment
• The researcher identifies and controls sources of
variation that significantly impact the measured
response.
• The researcher can gather evidence for causation.
Correlation ≠ Causation
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Fall 2014
But what are sources of variation?
Sources of variation are anything that could cause
an observation to be different from another
observation.
Two main types:
• Those that can be controlled and are of interest
are called treatments or treatment factors.
• Those that can influence the experimental
response but in which we are not directly
interested are called nuisance factors.
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Fall 2014
Rule of Thumb
List all major and minor sources of variation
before collecting the data, classifying them as
either a treatment or a nuisance factor.
• We want our design to minimize the impact of
minor sources of variation, and to be able to
separate effects of nuisance factors from treatment
factors
• We want the majority of the variability of the data
to be explained by the treatment factors.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
Example: Impact of Exercise Intensity on
Resting Heart Rate
Suppose a researcher surveys a sample of individuals
to obtain information about their intensity of
exercise each week and their resting heart rate.
Subject Reported Intensity of
Resting Heart Rate
Exercise each week
1
2
3
…
What type of study is this?
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http://karmajello.com/postcont/2014/02/What-ExerciseCan-Heart-Patients-Undertake-e1352999185475.jpg
Observational Study
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How could we make it a designed expt?
The researcher finds a sample of individuals,
enrolls groups in exercise programs of different
intensity levels, and then measures their resting
heart rate.
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Subject Intensity level of exercise
each week
1
2
3
…
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Resting Heart Rate
What are our sources of variation?
Major
Treatment
Exercise intensity
Nuisance Factor
Medication Use
Air Temperature &
Humidity
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Minor
Location of measurement
Body Size
Body Position
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Designing the experiment
Minimum considerations:
• Response: Resting heart rate (beats per minute)
• Treatment: Exercise Program
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o Low intensity
o Moderate intensity
o High intensity
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Designing the experiment
Basic Design:
• 36 participants, 18 male and 18 female under
the conditions listed previously.
• Every person is assigned to one of the three 8week exercise programs.
• Resting heart rate is measured at the beginning
and end of 8 weeks.
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Fall 2014
Fundamentals of Design of Experiments
• An experimental unit (EU) is the “material” to which treatment
factors are assigned.
o For the resting heart rate example, the participants are
the EU.
o We want EUs to be as similar as possible, but that isn’t
always realistic.
• A block is a group of EUs similar to each other, and different
from other groups.
o In the resting heart rate example, women are
physiologically similar to each other and different
from men.
• A blocking factor is the characteristic used to create the
blocks.
o In the resting heart rate example, gender is a blocking
factor.
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Fall 2014
Three Basic Principles of
Design of Experiments
Randomization
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Randomization
Randomization consists of randomly assigning:
• the experimental treatments to experimental units.
• the order in which the independent runs will be
performed (when applicable).
Purpose:
• Often we assume an independent, random
distribution of observations and errors –
randomization validates this assumption.
• Averages out the effects of extraneous/lurking
variables.
• Reduces bias and accusations of bias.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
Randomization
The way you randomize depends on your experiment,
what is important here is to remember there are two
levels of randomization.
1. Assignment of treatments to experimental units
2. Order of the runs (when applicable).
LISA: DOE
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Randomization RHR Example
1. Assignment of treatments to experimental units.
Participant
Exercise Program
1
High
2
High
3
Low
4
Intermediate
5
Low
6
High
…….
……
1. Order of the runs. Not applicable in this case since
all participants are doing the experiment at the
same time.
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Fall 2014
Three Basic Principles of
Design of Experiments
Replication
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Replication
Replication consists of independently repeating runs of
each treatment.
Purpose:
• Improves precision of effect estimation.
• Decreases Variance.
• Allows for estimation of experimental error. This
error will later become a unit of measurement to
determine whether observed differences are really
statistically significant.
Note: Try to have the same amount of replicates for each
treatment assignment.
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# Replicates=# EUs/#Treatments
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Replication in RHR Example
Participant
Exercise Program
1
High
2
High
3
Low
4
Intermediate
5
Low
6
High
…….
……
Participants 1, 2 and 6 can be considered as
replicates of High intensity exercise treatment.
LISA: DOE
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Pseudoreplication
What is pseudoreplication?
Occurs when there is more than one observation
per EU and they are treated as replicates.
In our RHR example it would be like taking
measurements in different locations (wrist, side
of the neck and foot) of the same person and
treating them as separate observations.
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Pseudoreplication
A way to deal with multiple measurements per EU
is to average them over and work with the new
value.
Consequences:
• Underestimation of error
• Potentially exaggerate
differences
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the
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true
treatment
Three Basic Principles of
Design of Experiments
Local Control of Error
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Local control of error
Local control of error is taking any means of
improving the accuracy of measuring treatment
effects in the design.
Purpose:
• Removes or minimizes sources of nuisance.
• Improves the precision with which comparisons
among factors are made.
Note: There are several ways of doing this. One could
control as much as possible all the previously listed
sources of variation. Often this is done by the use of
blocking or more advanced designs such as ANCOVA.
LISA: DOE
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RHR Local control of error
• We will be monitoring the participant’s exercise
program throughout the study (not relying on selfreporting).
• We will only consider participants that are not taking
any medication that might alter their heart rate.
• We will take all measurements on the same location of
the body: the wrist.
• We will take all measurements with the participant on
the same position: standing.
• We will only accept participants with a body mass index
within the normal range.
• We will measure all participants on the same day at the
beginning and the end of the study.
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Common Designs:
Completely Randomized Design (CRD)
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Complete Randomized Design (CRD)
The CRD is the simplest design. It assumes all EUs
are similar and the only major sources of variation are
the treatments.
In this design all treatment-EU assignments are
randomized for the specified number of treatment
replications.
If you are equally interested in comparisons of all
treatments
get as close as possible to equally
replicating the treatments. (Balanced design).
LISA: DOE
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CRD Example: Plasma Etching Experiment
Etching is a process in which unwanted material
is removed from circuit wafers in order to obtain
circuit patterns, electrical interconnects and areas
in which diffusions or metal depositions are to be
made.
* Example from Montgomery (2009)
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CRD Example: Etching Process simplified
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Energy is
supplied by a
generator.
Chemical
mixture gas is
is shot at a
sample.
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Plasma is
generated in
gap between
electrodes
CRD Example: Study
An engineer is interested in investigating the relationship
between the generator power setting and the etch rate for the
tool.
Response: Etch rate
Treatment: Generator power setting (4 levels to consider)
Experimental Unit: Circuit Wafer
Possible sources of variation:
• Generator power setting
• Chemical mixture gas (the gases affect the plasma behavior)
• Size of the gap between the electrodes.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
CRD Example: Principles of DOE
• Replication
We will consider 5 EUs for each treatment level
(generator power setting)
• Randomization
Since all EUs are considered to be identical, we will
randomize the running order.
• Local control of error
In order to minimize variability we will use the same
chemical mixture (C2F6) and size of gap (0.8 cm) for
all runs of the experiment.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
CRD Example: Randomization Scheme
Run
Treatment
Run
Treatment
1
3
11
4
2
4
12
4
3
1
13
3
4
2
14
1
5
2
15
2
6
2
16
1
7
4
17
2
8
3
18
3
9
3
19
4
10
1
20
1
This run order was obtained using a random number generator.
LISA: DOE
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CRD Example: What is the question?
We are interested in testing the equality of the
treatment means:
If we reject the null hypothesis, then this would mean
there is a difference between at least two of the means,
which translates to a significant different between the
treatments.
LISA: DOE
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CRD Example: Analysis
• We want to enter the data
such that each each response
has its own row, with the
corresponding
treatment
type.
• We then choose Analyze ->
Fit Y by X.
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CRD Example: Analysis
We will choose Rate as the Y response and Treatment as
the X factor.
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CRD Example: Visual Analysis
From the red triangle: Display Options ->Boxplot
Remarks:
•
These box plots show that the etch rate increases as the power
setting increases.
•
From this graphical analysis we suspect:
1. Generator power settings affects the etch rate.
2. Higher power settings result in increased etch rate.
LISA: DOE
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CRD Example: ANOVA Table
From red triangle select means and ANOVA.
ANOVA partitions total
independent pieces:
variability
into
three
separate
MSTrt: Variability due to treatment differences.
MSE: Variability due to experimental error.
If MSTrt>MSE then treatments likely have different effects.
LISA: DOE
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CRD Example: Contrasts
Red Triangle: Compare Means -> Tukey HSD
At least two treatments are different, which ones?
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CRD: Summary
• CRD has one overall randomization.
• Try to equally replicate all the treatments.
• Plot your data in a meaningful way to help visualize
analysis.
• Use ANOVA to test for an overall difference.
• Look at specific contrasts of interest to better
understand the relationship between treatments.
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Common Designs:
Randomized Complete Block Design
(RCBD)
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Fall 2014
Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD)
The RCBD is a design in which there are one or
more nuisance factors that are known and
controllable.
This
design
systematically
eliminates the effect of these nuisance factors on
the statistical comparisons among treatments.
The block size equals the number of treatments.
Basic Idea: Compare treatments within blocks to
account for the source of variation.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
RCBD Example: Vascular Graft Experiment
Vascular grafts (artificial veins) are produced by
extruding billets of polytetrafluoroethylene (PFTE)
resin combined with a lubricant into tubes.
Sometimes these tubes contain defects known as
flicks. These defects are cause for rejection of the
unit.
The product developer suspects that the extrusion
pressure affects the occurrence of flicks. An engineer
suspects that there may be significant batch-to-batch
variation from the resin.
* Example from Montgomery (2009)
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
RCBD Example: Study
Response: Percentage of tubes that did not contain
any flick.
Treatment: Extrusion Pressure (4 levels)
Block: Batch of resin (6 batches).
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RCBD Example: Principles of DOE
• Replication
Each treatment (extrusion pressure) is replicated once
in each block.
• Randomization
The treatments (extrusion pressure) are randomized
inside each block.
• Local control of error
In order to minimize variability we will use Blocking
and keeping all other possible controllable nuisance
factors controlled.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
RCBD Example: What is the question?
We are interested in testing the equality of the
treatment means:
If we reject the null hypothesis, then this would mean
there is a difference between at least two of the means.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
RCBD Example: What is the question?
We are interested in testing the equality of the
treatment means:
If we reject the null hypothesis, then this would mean
there is a difference between at least two of the means.
LISA: DOE
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RCBD Example: Analysis JMP
Analysis: Follow the same procedure.
Analyze->Fit Y by X.
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RCBD Example: Visual Analysis
Boxplot:
From this graphical analysis we suspect:
1. Extrusion pressure affects the response.
2. Higher pressure settings seem to result in decreased no flicks
percentages.
3. These results can be potentially affected by the resin batch.
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
RCBD Example: ANOVA Table
According to this analysis, we reject the null hypothesis. This
means that there is a significant effect by the treatments.
Software is going to give you a p-value for Block, but
only use this to gauge how much we reduced experimental
error. Do not test the blocks using this p-value.
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RCBD Example: Contrasts
Significant differences between treatments 1 and 4, and
2 and 4.
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Common Designs:
Introduction to Factorial Designs
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Factorial Designs
In this type of design we want to study the effect
of two or more factors. Here, we have that in each
complete trial or replication of the experiment, all
possible combinations of the levels of the factors
are investigated.
Basic idea: Treatments are a combination of
multiple factors with different levels (i.e. settings)
LISA: DOE
Fall 2014
Factorial Designs: Main Concepts
• The effect of factor is defined to be as the
change in the response produced by a change
in the level of the factor (main effect).
• Interaction between factors is present when the
difference in response between the levels of
one factor is not the same at all levels of the
other factors (i.e. the effect of factor A depends
on the level chose for factor B).
LISA: DOE
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Factorial Designs Example: Battery Design
An engineer is designing a battery that will be used in
a device that will be subject to extreme variations in
temperature.
She is interested in examining three different
materials for this battery at three different
temperatures (15, 70 and 125 °F) in order to
determine how battery life is affected by these
conditions.
* Example from Montgomery (2009)
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Factorial Design Example: Study
Response: Battery life
Treatment: All combinations the factors:
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Material: 3 levels (1, 2 and 3)
Temperature: 3 levels (15, 70 and 125 °F)
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Factorial Design Example: Principles of DOE
• Replication
Each treatment (combination of levels of factors) is
replicated 4 times.
• Local control of error
In order to minimize variability we will keep
everything else in the testing lab constant throughout
the experiment.
LISA: DOE
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Factorial Design Example: Randomization
Mat
Temp
Run
Mat
Temp
Run
Mat
Temp
Run
1
15
6
2
15
17
3
15
13
1
15
11
2
15
30
3
15
9
1
15
26
2
15
23
3
15
32
1
15
31
2
15
14
3
15
24
1
70
22
2
70
25
3
70
27
1
70
34
2
70
35
3
70
8
1
70
1
2
70
5
3
70
12
1
70
33
2
70
20
3
70
2
1
125
15
2
125
10
3
125
3
1
125
21
2
125
29
3
125
4
1
125
28
2
125
36
3
125
18
1
125
19
2
125
7
3
125
16
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Factorial Design Example: Randomization
You can create your own design in JMP:
DOE->Custom Design
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Factorial Design Example: Analysis
Analyze->Fit Model
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Factorial Design Example: Interaction
Red Triangle: Factor Profiling -> Interaction Plots
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Factorial Design Example: ANOVA Theory
Here the ANOVA table is partitioned:
SST= SSModel+SSError
And SSModel is partitioned:
SSModel=SSTemp+SSMat+SSInt
SSTemp: Compares Temperature level means to overall
mean.
SSMat: Compares Material level means to overall mean.
SSInt: Looks at differences between
changes depending on material.
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temperature
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Factorial Design Example: ANOVA
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Model adequacy checking
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Model Adequacy checking
It is recommended to check the adequacy of the model
by examining the residuals (difference between the true
values and the ones predicted by the model. These
residuals should be structureless, which means they
should not contain an obvious pattern.
To save the residuals from Fit Model (Not fit Y by X):
Red triangle: Save columns -> Residuals
LISA: DOE
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Model Adequacy checking: Assumptions
• Residuals should be normally distributed
Can inspect with a normal probability plot:
Analyze-> Distribution.
Red triangle: Normal Quantile plot
• Plot Residuals vs fitted values and check for patterns
In the effect analysis window, red triangle: Row
diagnostics
• Plot Residuals by treatment, can do it with saved
residuals using the graph builder.
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Model Adequacy checking: Battery
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Model Adequacy checking: Plasma Etching
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Model Adequacy checking: Vascular Graft
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Exercise
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Exercise:
A soft drink bottler is interested in obtaining more uniform fill heights in
the bottles produced by his manufacturing process. The process engineer
can control three variables during the filling process:
• Percent carbonation
• Operating pressure in the filler
• Line speed.
The engineer can control carbonation at three different levels (10, 12 and
14%), two levels for pressure (25 and 30 psi) and two levels for line speed
(200 and 250 bpm).
She designs to run two replicates of a factorial design in these factors, with
all runs taken in random order. The response variable is the average
deviation from the target fill height observed in a production run of bottles
at each set of conditions.
How many factors do we have? How many runs would we need to perform?
* Example from Montgomery (2009)
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Exercise: Question 1
Suppose you obtain this interaction plot, what
would you interpret?
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Exercise: Analysis
Conduct the factorial analysis in JMP, what can
you conclude?
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Exercise: Analysis
What can you say about the residuals?
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Summary
• Remember to randomize!
– Randomize run order, and treatments
• Remember to replicate!
– Use multiple EUs for each treatment– it will help you be
more accurate in estimating your effects
• Remember to block!
– In the case where you suspect some inherent quality of
your experimental units may be causing variation in your
response, arrange your experimental units into groups
based on similarity in that quality
• Remember to contact LISA!
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– For short questions, attend our Walk-in Consulting hours
– For research, come before you collect your data for design
help
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Reference
Douglas C. Design and
experiments. John Wiley & Sons, 2008.
Montgomery,
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analysis of
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and to complete the survey that will be sent
to you by email.
Thank you!
Fall 2014

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