Arizona Population Projections Model

Report
Presented to Arizona City/County
Management Association
Office of Employment & Population Statistics
Arizona Department of Administration
February 7, 2013
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Arizona, 2010
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Total pop: 3,700;
Median age: 68
Age 65 and over: 56%
Age 17 and below: 7%
Hispanic: 7%
Quartzsite, 2010
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Total pop: 14,000;
Median age: 26
Age 65 and over: 7%
Age 17 and below: 38%
Hispanic: 96%
Somerton, 2010
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County total pop: 72,000
Apache County, 2010
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County total pop: 20,000
La Paz County, 2010
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Place total pop: 13,000
Paradise Valley, 2010
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Place total pop: 118,000
Surprise, 2010
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Place total pop: 162,000
Tempe, 2010
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Place total pop: 26,000
Florence, 2010
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Background
 State and county population projections were
prepared in accordance with Executive Order 2011-04.
 Extensive engagement of stakeholders and experts.
 Multiple revisions made based on feedback.
 16 Geographies (State + 15 Counties)
 40-year projection horizon (base year = 2010)
 Released in December 2012.
 Sub-county projections to be released in September
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Highlights
 The state is expected to grow at a slower pace than in
past decades, but still faster than the country
 Migration will account for ½ to ¾ of growth; share of
immigration dips then rises
 More concentration in the Phoenix Metro area
 Significant increase in 65+ age group
 Share of school-age children stable
 Non-Hispanic White will no longer be the majority
 Share of Hispanic population increases in all counties
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Total Population: Arizona
14,000,000
11,563,000
12,000,000
10,218,000
10,000,000
8,853,000
7,485,000
8,000,000
6,499,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Historical
High Series
Medium Series
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0
Low Series
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Annual Population Change: Arizona
250,000
200,000
150,000
137,000
137,000
134,000
137,000
100,000
53,000
50,000
Historical
High Series
Medium Series
2046
2041
2036
2031
2026
2021
2016
2011
2006
2001
1996
1991
0
Low Series
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Regional Share of Arizona Population
70%
60%
70%
71%
66%
67%
68%
19%
19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
15%
14%
14%
13%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
PHX Metro Historical
Tucson Metro Historical
Balance of State Historical
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0%
PHX Metro Projected
Tucson Metro Projected
Balance of Metro Projected
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Racial and Ethnic Composition,
Arizona, 2012-2050
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Hispanic
White, Non-Hispanic
Other, Non-Hispanic
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Arizona Population, 2010 and 2035
AZ 2010 US 2010
AZ 2010 Rank
AZ 2035
35.9
37.2
9th youngest state
38.4
25.5%
24.0%
6th
24.9%
Percent 65 and over 13.8%
13.0%
20th
20.9%
Percent 85 and over
1.6%
1.8%
35th
3.1%
% White nonHispanic
57.8%
63.7%
43rd
46.9%
% Hispanic
29.6%
16.3%
4th
39.1%
Median age
Percent under 18
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Jim Chang, State Demographer
Office of Employment & Population Statistics
Arizona Department of Administration
[email protected]
(602) 771-1236
www.azstats.gov
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