Revisions to Valuation of DER -PPT

Report
MTS Working Group
San Francisco F2F Agenda
Aram Shumavon and Alan Becker
Kevala
Dec. 9, 2014
Revisions to Valuation of DER: Walking, Jogging, Running
Walk
Jog
Run
Q1, 2015 – H1 2016
2017- 2020
2020 and beyond
Improved Visibility
Utility Plans and Products
Mature Markets
Heatmaps, Test Areas
Statewide Rollout of Proven
Analytical Framework
Market Integration
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2
Walking - Short Term Revisions to Valuation of DER
Focus on granularity and visibility.
Methodology Outline:
1) Reduce friction by leveraging existing platforms
January 2015 deliverables?
2) Publicly available inputs, assumptions
Preference for public prices, etc. – there is not time for anything else.
3) Geospatial quantification
Ability to differentiate between the value of the same resource in two locations.
4) Circuit level granularity, where possible; substation where not
Combination of feeder and busbar granularity
5) Integrate of bulk power system and end user customer market signals
Opex reduction, Capex avoidance, DR benefits, reliability improvement, etc.
6) Start to include a more comprehensive set of benefits
Societal, environmental, health, jobs, etc.
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3
Integrate Disparate Elements
Existing Avoided Cost tool has serious limitations
Static & blunt, but pervasive
Inadequate, but familiar
New valuation options are difficult to implement in a quickly
e.g. Jobs benefits are likely to be highly contentious
Policy makers need a tool to compare across alternatives
e.g. Is a dollar spent avoiding a capacitor bank on one substation more valuable than load
reduction elsewhere?
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4
How Then to Bring the Pieces Together?
We propose to modify the RMI/E3 DERACT as the
basis for AB 327 DRP evaluation by:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Increasing the geographic granularity
Adding additional benefit cost data
Improving ease of use, accuracy, visibility, and speed
Providing a framework for developing Jog and Run phase tools
Establishing a mechanism for signaling probable evaluation mechanisms to
other PUC proceedings
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5
E3 Framework
DRP Avoided Cost: Potential Granularity Upgrades
Component
Current Granularity (RMI/E3 DERACT)
Potential DRP Granularity
Data Source
Energy
Zonal
LMP Node
CAISO
Losses
Utility
Utility
Utilities, GRC
Ancillary Services Statewide
Statewide
CASIO
Emissions
Statewide
Statewide
RMI/E3 DERACT
Capacity
System value (no use of LRA values)
LRA-specific
CPUC RA program
T&D Capacity
Utility (SCE, SDGE), climate zone (PGE), Substation, LRA
(non-CAISO)
(substation data was in NEM report, but not made public)
Avoided RPS
Statewide
Statewide
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Utilities, GRC
RMI/E3 DERACT
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For WG Consideration
DRP Avoided Cost: Potential Analysis Expansion
Component
Current
Potential DRP Granularity
Data Source
Transmission Capacity
N/A
LRA, Zone
(Utility Capacity Projects 5-10 Yr Plans +
CPUC assumption on >Yr 10 planning)
Energy savings from transmission
unloading
N/A
CRR path, LMP nodes
Industry assumptions (i.e. Sandia NL)
Capacity savings from LRA unloading
N/A
LRA
LRA vs. System CAISO prices
Fuel Price Hedge  physical hedge
N/A
Utility, TEVAR model
NREL assumptions, TEVAR model, GRCs
Market-Price Suppression  reduced
wholesale energy prices
N/A
Statewide, CAISO
NREL assumptions
Reliability  Routine Outages
N/A
Utility SAIDI statistics + Value of Service
assumptions (Brattle Report, etc)
Resiliency  Major Event Outages
N/A
Industry assumptions (i.e. DOE)
Emissions  Health impacts
N/A
Air Basin, combination of air basin and
LRA
Industry assumptions
Societal  jobs, etc
N/A
Statewide
Industry assumptions
Additional A/S  Volt/VAr, ramp(?)
N/A
Circuit
Industry assumptions (i.e. NL)
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7
Low Hanging Fruit for Localized Valuation Improvements
e.g. LMP Node Level analysis
is currently integrated for EE
avoided cost and various DER
investment
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8
…And the Expansion of New Cost Categories
e.g. Air quality geographies
are known and market prices
are transparent
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9
Allowing Us to Leverage Multiple Datasets into a New Avoided Cost Tool
Initial incorporation of RMI/E3
DERACT completed. Next steps
include sample data integration
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Leveraging the Familiar : Improved Granularity and Transparency
Combining OpEx vs. CapEx breakdown, cost/benefit product, avoided cost tool (if applicable), geography and data source
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