Climate Change, Water and Tourism Carlos Fuller International and Regional Liaison Officer Evidence of Warming Source: IPCC PGIA Average Temperatures Source: NMS, Belize Temperatures (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Years 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sea Levels are Rising Guyana: • Temp increase of 1°C from 1909 to 1998 • Sea level rise is 5 times greater than global avg. – 10.2 mm per year from 1951-1979 • Rainfall patterns abnormal – More intense rainfall and longer dry spells Source: IPCC More Extreme Events ! Saint Lucia Example 2009/2010: Worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40 years! Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours! Temperature Projections Results from the Regional PRECIS Model ECHAM4 – A2 HADCM3 – A2 Annual warming of between 1°C and 5°C by the 2080s Greater warming in the NW Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Belize) than in the eastern Caribbean Greater warming in the summer months than in the cooler and traditionally drier months of the year ECHAM4 – B2 HADCM3 – B2 Mean changes in the annual surface temperature for period 2071-2099 Rainfall Projections Results from the Regional PRECIS Model ECHAM4 – A2 HADCM3 – A2 A drier Caribbean except for western Cuba , south Bahamas, Costa Rica and Panama A pronounced north/south gradient in rainfall change during the dry season (January to April) Wet season becoming drier ECHAM4 – B2 HADCM3 – B2 Annual mean changes in rainfall (%) for 2071-2099 Sea Level Rise • • • • • Erosion Coastal flooding Inundation Saltwater intrusion Mangroves • • • • • • Tourist destinations Human settlements Water supply Agriculture Aquaculture Fisheries Water Security: –Salt water intrusion –Less rainfall –More evaporation Vulnerability Studies on Agriculture in Belize • • • • • • DSSAT Beans, corn and rice 2°C rise in temp, ±20% change in precipitation Result: 14- 19% decline in yield for beans Result: 10 - 14% decline in yield for rice Result: 22 – 17% decline in yield for corn • • • • • • • PRECIS, DSSAT4 and Cropwat Sugarcane and Citrus 2028 & 2050 1 & 2.5°C rise in temp ± 12 & 20% change in precipitation Result: 12-17% decline in yields for sugarcane Result: 3 – 5% decline in yields for citrus Forests Threatened Higher Temperatures Lower Humidity More Forest Fires More Pests and Diseases • • • • • • • • • Belize: 1999-2000 High temperatures & low humidity Pine bark beetle infestation 75% of nation’s pine forest destroyed Poor forest management Climate change Impacts on timber industry and biodiversity Contributed to emissions of GHGs Increased erosion – poor water quality (rivers and sea) Impacts of One Metre Sea level Rise for CARICOM • Over 2,700 km2 land area lost (10% of The Bahamas) valued at over US$70 billion • Over 100,000 people displaced (8% of population of Suriname, 5% of population of The Bahamas, 3% of population of Belize) – Cost to rebuild basic housing, roads and services (water, electricity) for displaced population approximately US $1.8 billion • Annual GDP losses of US $1.2 billion (over 6% in Suriname, 5% in The Bahamas, 3% in Guyana and Belize) • At least 16 multi-million dollar tourism resorts lost, with a replacement cost of over US $1.6 billion and the livelihoods of thousands of employees and communities affected • Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (4% in Suriname, 3% in The Bahamas, 2% in Jamaica) • Transportation networks severely disrupted – Loss of 10% of CARICOM island airports at a cost of over US $715 million – Lands surrounding 14 ports inundated (out of 50) at a cost of over US $320 million – Reconstruction cost of lost roads exceeds US $178 million (6% of road network in Guyana, 4% in Suriname, 2% in The Bahamas) Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies Impacts of One Metre Sea Level Rise for CARICOM • Total Economic Impact: • GDP loss = > US $1.2 billion per year (cumulatively US $30 billion if 1m SLR occurs in 2075) • Permanently lost land value = US $70 billion • Reconstruction / relocation costs = $4.64 billion Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies CARICOM Response • Endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of Government in July 2002 • An intergovernmental specialized agency of CARICOM with an independent management that is guided by The CARICOM Council of Trade and Economic Development (COTED) on policy matters. A board of directors with responsibility for strategic planning. A technical secretariat headed by an Executive Director with responsibility for tactical planning. • The Centre is mandated to coordinate the regional response to climate change and its efforts to manage and adapt to its projected impacts. • The Centre possesses full juridical personality. • Financially independent Operational since January 2004 Located in Belmopan, Belize The Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change The Regional Framework: “Establishes and guides the Caribbean’s direction for the continued building of resilience to the impacts of global climate change by CARICOM States”. Articulates the strategic direction for the region’s response to climate change risks. Approved by the CARICOM Heads of Government at their meeting in Georgetown, Guyana in July 2009 14 The Five Strategic Elements of the Regional Framework Mainstreaming Climate Change into the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA and work programmes of public and private institutions in all Caribbean Community countries at all levels Promoting systems and actions to REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY of Caribbean Community countries to global Climate Change wherever possible Promoting measures to DERIVE BENEFIT FROM THE PRUDENT MANAGEMENT of forests, wetlands, and the natural environment, in general, and to protect that natural environment Promoting actions and arrangements to REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, including those aimed at energy-use efficiency by increasingly resorting to low-emission renewable energy sources Promote implementation of SPECIFIC ADAPTATION MEASURES to address key vulnerabilities in the Region. 15 The Implementation Plan The Implementation Plan (IP) for the Regional Framework, defines the regional strategy for coping with Climate Change over the period 20122022 Approved by the 23rd Inter-Sessional Meeting of CARICOM Heads held in Suriname 8-9 March, 2012. 16 Sectors Identified in the Regional Framework Coastal and marine Tourism Energy Water Health Forest Agriculture and food security Actions Identified IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 • Assess, quantify and map surface and ground water resources in CARICOM States (2012-2017) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean • Undertake vulnerability and capacity assessment of the impacts of climate change on water (2011-2017) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean • Assess, quantify and evaluate water demand and consumption patterns (2011-2015) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 (continued) • Prepare water sector adaptation strategies for all CARICOM countries by 2017 – CIMH & CEHI • Implement water sector adaptation strategies for all CARICOM countries (2013-2021) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean • Develop climate resilient IWRM strategies in all CARICOM countries (2011-2016) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean • Establish water resources management agencies where necessary and provide additional support where agencies exist (2012-2017) – In collaboration IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1 (continued) • Install water distribution infrastructure in selected countries (2012-2012) – Antigua, Dominica, Jamaica and St. Kitts • Strengthen the resilience of water infrastructure to extreme events/natural hazards (2012-2021) – Antigua, Belize, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Kitts Water Related Projects Implemented • MACC – – – – – Regional climate change policy Climate Modeling Vulnerability assessment of ground water in Jamaica Vulnerability assessment of surface water in Belize Development of Belize national water policy and National Integrated Water Act (NIWA) • SPACC – Rainwater harvesting and recycling Saint Lucia Coconut Bay Hotel and Resort – Installation of salt water reverse osmosis system in Bequia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines – Installation of irrigation system in Milton, Dominica • UNESCO Coastal Aquifers Project – Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago THE PROBLEM • Rainfall projected to decrease in the Caribbean – 26-53% decrease in precipitation by 2050 • More intense extreme events (storms and droughts) – Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours! – 2009-2010-worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40 years! Coconut Bay Resort and Spa • Began operation in 2005 • All inclusive resort • 3 pool-water park • 254 rooms • Four floors, four buildings Water Usage by Coconut Bay Resort and Spa • The property uses, on average, 2.1 million gallons (9,534,000 litres) per month, or 5% of the total production for the VieuxFort area • Coconut Bay operates a 3-pool water park, which uses substantial quantities of water225,000 US Gallons • 2nd highest consumer of water in Vieux-Fort. It uses the water equivalent of 1,726 persons per day (population of 14,561 persons), or approximately 12% of the Vieux-Fort population Project Components • Rainwater harvesting system for toilet flushing and pool topping. • Rainwater used for toilet flushing will be treated in sewage treatment system and recycled for landscaping-two-prong conservation of potable supply • Expected reduction in water purchased for toilet-flushing and replenishment of swimming pools by approximately 3,000,000 • Sewage treatment, recycling and irrigation -for landscaping • This component will reduce the amount of water purchased for maintenance of the grounds by approximately 21,000,000 litres annually THE PROJECT • Cost (works) EC$773 846.56 • Capacity of wastewater storage tank 204 360 L (44 953 Imp gal) • Capacity of north rain water storage tank 18 014 L (3 962 Imp gal) • Capacity of south rain water tank 27 020 L (5 944 Imp gal) THE AGREEMENT • MOU between the CCCCC, the Government of Saint Lucia and Coconut Bay indicating roles and responsibilities of each party • Full approval of project by the Development Control Authority in 2009 • Signed Financial Agreement between the CCCCC and Coconut Bay – Co financing 75:25 – Budget of US$325,000 CCCCC Financial Analysis • Operating costs increased – electricity to run pumps • Environmental benefits – – – – the avoided loss in revenue from tourist reef related activities the avoided loss in revenue from reduced fishes landed the avoided loss in beach and sea recreational activities the avoided property damage • Social benefits – Reduced demand on municipal water supply – Health • Net present cumulative economical, social and environmental benefits must range from: – @ 5% discount factor US$1.5 million to US$3.3 million – @10% discount factor US$1.1 million to US$2.4 million – @15% Discount factor US$0.9 million to US$1.9 million Economist’s Conclusion • From a financial perspective, CBBRAS must seek to minimize the cost associated with this system as the resort will be responsible for financing the cost associated with operating these systems. • However, CBBRAS might see it differently as some of the cost included in our analysis, such as labour cost, which based on the cost scenarios range from 12% to 33% of annual total cost, can be looked at business as usual, as well as, there might be existing economies of scale and cost saving measures that our analysis did not capture. WHY INVEST? • Recognition for exemplary work • Initiative can be a good marketing tool • Enhanced resilience of resort during potable water shortages • Cost savings for Coconut Bay Beach Resort and Spa! New Activities Onstream • Install 60 hydrometeorological stations in CARIFORUM States (GCCA project) • Replicate the Dominica, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines pilots projects across the Caribbean (GCCA project) – Petite Martinique and Carriacou, Grenada Please visit our website for further information! Carlos Fuller International and Regional Liaison Officer [email protected] WEBSITE LISTED ON TOP 101 SITES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE!