SAP presentation_MP_Bangkok2013

Report
The 2014 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment
Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol
An update
25th Meeting of the Parties to the Protocol
Bangkok, Thailand
SAP Co-chairs
Scientific Steering Committee
Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo)
David Karoly (Australia)
Paul Newman (USA)
Malcolm Ko (USA)
John Pyle (UK)
Theodore Shepherd (UK)
A.R. Ravishankara (USA)
Susan Solomon (USA)
Coordinator/
Editor
Chris Ennis
(USA)
Goal: Make the assessment more useful to and usable by the Parties.
Make the printed copy short, easy to read, and provide much needed
information for policy decisions.
Side benefits: Reduce printing and shipping costs
A layered publication- easily accessible at various levels
Taking advantage of the technological (internet) advances
October 24, 2013
25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok
1
Structure of the 2014 Scientific Assessment
Assessment Foundation
from the Scientific Community
Decision-Relevant Information (Web and print)
3
4
5
“ODSs”
Science Update
“Global Ozone:
Past and Future”
Science Update
“Polar Ozone:
Past and Future”
Science Update
“Strat O3 Changes
& Climate”
Science Update
Policy-Relevant Highlights from the Chapter
2
2014 Chapter Scientific Summary (bullets)
What We Know from Previous Assessments
(Web-only)
1
Synthesis of the
Chapters’ policyrelevant information
~30-40
pages
Policy-relevant
information prepared for
this assessment
(Scenarios chapter,
perhaps
modified)shortened)
Appendices:
• Chapter Summaries
• Other Supporting Detail
(e.g., tables of ODPs, lifetimes,
scenario details)
“Scenarios/Options
for Policymakers”
Science Update
Forms the foundation
for scientists and program managers
October 24, 2013
Assessment for the DecisionMaking Community
~25
pages
For the Parties to the Protocol
National (Ozone) Units and managers
25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok
2
2014 Contents: The Birds-Eye View
 Key ongoing issues
• Levels of ODS and trends
• Levels of ozone and its trends
• Our understanding of the atmospheric science
 What is new in science
• The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery
• The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its
changes
 Key requests from the Parties to the Protocol
October 24, 2013
25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok
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Chapters, Lead Authors (LA), and Chapter Editors (CE)
Chapter 1: Update on Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) and Other Gases of Interest
to the Montreal Protocol
LAs: Lucy Carpenter (Univ. of York, UK); Stefan Reimann (Empa, Switzerland)
CE: Andreas Engel, Germany; Steve Montzka, USA
Chapter 2: Update on Global Ozone: Past, Present, and Future
LAs: Steven Pawson (NASA GSFC, USA); Wolfgang Steinbrecht (Deutscher
Wetterdienst, Germany)
CE: Vitali Fioletov (Canada); Ulrike Langematz (Germany)
Chapter 3: Update on Polar Ozone: Past, Present, and Future
LAs: Martin Dameris (DLR, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany)
Sophie Godin-Beekmann (LATMOS/CNRS/UVSQ/UPMC, France)
CE: Judith Perlwitz (USA); Slimane Bekki (France)
Chapter 4: Stratospheric Ozone Changes and Climate
LAs: Julie Arblaster (Aust. Bureau of Met., Australia); Nathan Gillett (Env. Canada,
Canada)
CE: Lesley Gray (UK); David Thompson (USA)
Chapter 5: Scenarios, Information, and Options for Policymakers
LAs: Neil Harris (Cambridge Univ., UK); Don Wuebbles (Univ. of Illinois, USA)
CE: Mack McFarland (USA); Guus Velders (Netherlands)
October 24, 2013
25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok
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The Parties’ Request (Decision XXIII/13)
“Terms of Reference” for the 2014 SAP Report
a. Assessment of the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution, including in respect
of atmospheric changes from, for example, sudden stratospheric warming or accelerated
Brewer-Dobson circulation;
b. Evaluation of the Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic winter/spring ozone depletion and the
predicted changes in these phenomena, with a particular focus on temperatures in the
polar stratosphere;
c. Evaluation of trends in the concentration in the atmosphere of ozone-depleting
substances and their consistency with reported production and consumption of those
substances and the likely implications for the state of the ozone layer and the
atmosphere;
d. Assessment of the interaction between the ozone layer and the atmosphere; including:
i. The effect of polar ozone depletion on tropospheric climate;
ii. The effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling;
e. Description and interpretation of observed ozone changes and ultraviolet radiation,
along with future projections and scenarios for those variables, taking into account
among other things the expected impacts to the atmosphere;
f. Assessment of the effects of ozone-depleting substances and other ozone-relevant
substances, if any, with stratospheric influences, and their degradation products, the
identification of such substances, their ozone-depletion potential and other properties;
g. Identification of any other threats to the ozone layer…
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25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok
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Timeline
 Discussion Paper circulated for comments by scientific community (Feb)
2013
 Lead Authors and Chapter Editors established (early Apr)
 Chapter author teams assembled, early preparation steps begin (early May)
 Draft of Chapter outlines (late May)
 1st meeting of Lead Authors, Cochairs, Steering Committee, Chapter Editors (June)
 Individual Chapter team meetings (convened by Lead Authors (July-Sep)
 Chapter summary bullets and outlines submitted for review (October 1, 2013)

drafts of Chapters completed (30 October, 2013)
 Mail Review of Chapter 1st drafts begins (1 Nov)
1st
Meeting of
the Parties
2014
 Chapter 1st drafts reviews due (15 Dec)
 Chapter editor summaries sent to Lead Authors (early Jan)
 2nd draft of Chapters completed (early Mar)
 2nd meeting of Lead Authors, Cochairs, Steering Committee, Chapter Editors (April 8-10)
Boulder
 Drafting of Assessment for Decision-Makers begins
 Final drafts of Chapters completed (all cited papers in press) mid-May
 Draft Assessment for Decision-Makers distributed to Panel Reviewers (early June)
 Panel Rev. Meeting [discuss and finalize Assessment for Decision-Makers] (June 23-27)
October 24, 2013
25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok
Les Diablerets
6
Acknowledgment
 Many thanks to Mr. Marco Gonzalez for his guidance
and support
 Thank you for your attention
October 24, 2013
Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok
7

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