Novel databases for exposure to cosmetics and

Report
GLOBAL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Novel databases for exposure to
cosmetics and personal care products
Damien Comiskey, Mathematical Models and Statistics
Creme Global
13th October 2014
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
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Aggregate Exposure Modelling
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Aggregate Exposure Modelling
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Aggregate Exposure Modelling
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Aggregate Exposure Modelling
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Aggregate Exposure Modelling
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Aggregate Exposure Modelling
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ℎ
Daily Aggregate Exposure
Population Exposure Modelling
Databases Required







Frequency of use
Amount per use
Concentration of fragrance
Surface areas
Body weights
Retention
Penetration
Frequency of Use
Survey Demographics
Age groups
EU
US
Male
Female
Male
Female
18-24
1490
2557
412
1228
25-34
2980
3078
603
1954
35-49
4230
4763
838
2200
50-64
3210
2966
748
1541
65+
560
375
289
424
Total
12470
13739
2890
7347
Online Consumption Diaries
Personal Care Products
Body Lotion
Deodorant
Oral Care
• Mass Market
• Prestige
• Other
• Deodorant/Anti-Perspirant Spray
• Deodorant/Anti-Perspirant NonSpray
• Body Spray
• Toothpaste
• Mouthwash
Cosmetic Styling
• Lipstick
• Liquid/Makeup Foundation
• Hair Styling Products (excl. Spray)
Hydroalcholics
• Eau de Toilette
• Eau de Parfum
• After Shave / Cologne (Splash-on)
Shower Products
Moisturizers
• Showergel / Body Wash
• Shampoo
• Rinse-off Conditioner
• Face Moisturizer
• Hand Cream
Application Sites
Face+Eyes+Lips
Mouth
Chest
Moisturizers
Scalp
Neck
Back
Underarms
Stomach
Arms+Wrists
Intimate Parts
Hands+Palms
Bottom
Legs
Feet
Bodyweight and Height
US
 2007-2008 NHANES survey
Bodyweight and height data for 8,861
US subjects
EU
 NHANES data scaled based on EU
country average weights and heights
Surface Area Calculations
Dubois Formula
 =  ×   ×  
→ head, trunk, arms,
hands, legs and feet
Surface Area Calculations
Relative
Body Part
Scalp
Neck
Chest
Stomach
Back
Arms
Wrists
Palms
Intimate parts
Surface Area
1/2 Head
1/10 Trunk
1/4 Trunk
1/5 Trunk
3/10 Trunk
Arms – (1/4 Hands)
1/4 Hands
1/2 Hands
1/100 Total Body
Absolute
Body Part
Surface Area
Reference
Face
Eyes
Lips
Mouth
Behind ears
Underarms
1/2 Head – 28.8cm2
24cm2
4.8cm2
212cm2
36cm2
200cm2
Api et al. (2008); 28.8 cm2 refers to combined surface areas of eyes and lips
Bremme et al. (2003)
Ferrario et al. (2000)
Collins and Dawes, (1987), Ferrario et al. (2000)
Estimated based on expert judgement
Bremme et al. (2003)
Amount used
 Europe → COLIPA (Hall et al., 2007; 2011)
 USA → CTFA (Loretz et al., 2005; 2006; 2008)
 Hydro alcoholics → Tozer et al. (2004)
Fragrances and Mixtures
Fragrances and Mixtures
Concentration in Product
=
Level 1
x
Level 2
Retention
Product
Body lotion (mass, prestige, or other)
Deodorant spray
Deodorant roll-on
Body spray
Toothpaste
Mouthwash
Lipstick
Liquid makeup foundation
Hair styling
Eau de toilette
Eau de parfum
Aftershave
Shower gel
Shampoo
Rinse-off conditioner
Face moisturiser
Hand cream
Dermal Retention
Factor (%)
100
23.5
100
100
10
1
100
100
10
100
100
100
1
1
1
100
100
Ingestion Factor
(%)
5*
10*
-
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
 ×  ×  ×  × 
  =
ℎ
Aggregate Exposure Modelling
Exposure =
 × ××
 ℎ
Combining Databases
 Pick a subject in the diary
Combining Databases
 Pick a subject in the diary
 Find their age, gender and country
Combining Databases
 Pick a subject in the diary
 Find their age, gender and country
 Select their height and weight
– calculate their body surface areas
Combining Databases
 Pick a subject in the diary
 Find their age, gender and country
 Select their height and weight
– calculate their body surface areas
 Determine which products they use in a day
and how often
Combining Databases
 Pick a subject in the diary
 Find their age, gender and country
 Select their height and weight
– calculate their body surface areas
 Determine which products they use in a day
and how often
 For each product randomly select:
– Amount based on demographic
– Fragrance concentration
Calculating Exposure
 Calculate their daily aggregate
exposure
 Repeat for all subjects in survey
Lower-end consumer
Higher-end consumer
Lower-end consumer
Higher-end consumer
Maximum Consumer
Exposure
Lower-end consumer
Higher-end consumer
95th Percentile
Consumer Exposure
Lower-end consumer
Higher-end consumer
Median Consumer
Exposure
Lower-end consumer
Higher-end consumer
Average Consumer
Exposure
Analysing the Databases
 Product Use, Co-Use and Non-use statistics
– per subject
– Per occasion
 Frequency of use
Per subject
Product Combination
% of Subjects
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Shampoo
6.19%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Shampoo, Showergel
2.53%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, AfterShave, Shampoo
2.31%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste
1.53%
Toothpaste, Shampoo
1.24%
DeoSpray, Toothpaste, Shampoo
1.21%
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Mouthwash, Shampoo
1.18%
Per occasion
Product Combination
Toothpaste
Toothpaste, Mouthwash
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste
DeoRollOn
Shampoo
Showergel
Toothpaste, FaceMoisturizer
DeoRollOn, Toothpaste, Shampoo
% of Occasions
25.60%
4.38%
3.99%
3.75%
2.84%
2.28%
2.01%
1.96%
Body Lotion Mass vs. Prestige
(EU+US)
Consumer Type
Non-Consumers
Consumers: Mass Only
Consumers: Prestige Only
Consumers: Mass and Prestige
Consumers: Other
Total
Population
Gender:
Male
Only
Gender:
Female
Only
Age:
18-34
Only
Age:
35-49
Only
Age:
50+ Only
80.91%
92.26%
70.08%
81.96%
81.02%
79.93%
10.87%
5.19%
16.28%
10.00%
10.63%
11.79%
2.99%
0.47%
5.40%
2.94%
3.12%
2.93%
0.67%
0.03%
1.28%
0.71%
0.89%
0.44%
4.57%
2.05%
6.96%
4.39%
4.34%
4.91%
Co-use statistics on Per Subject basis, for
Deodorants, and for the Total Population
Product Combination
DeoRollOn
DeoSpray
(no product)
DeoRollOn, BodySpray
DeoSpray, BodySpray
DeoSpray, DeoRollOn
BodySpray
DeoSpray, DeoRollOn, BodySpray
% of Subjects
% (Cumulative)
59.39%
17.21%
10.04%
5.55%
4.25%
2.07%
1.05%
0.45%
59.39%
76.60%
86.65%
92.19%
96.44%
98.50%
99.55%
100.00%
Frequency of Use
Interestingly, the usage frequency of Face Moisturizer is very similar
to that of Mouthwash. Again, distinct modes are seen at ~1, ~7 and
~14 uses per week.
Frequency of Use
In the 18-34 Age Group (below), the mean usage frequency for males
is 4.53 times per week, and for females it is 3.85 times per week.
GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Damien Comiskey, CEO
13th October 2014
GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Damien Comiskey, CEO
13th October 2014
Product category Co-use
Product Combination
Deodorant, Oral Care, Shower Products
Deodorant, Oral Care, Hydro-alcoholics, Shower Products
Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Hydro-alcoholics,
Shower Products, Moisturizers
Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Shower Products
Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Hydro-alcoholics,
Shower Products
Deodorant, Oral Care, Cosmetic Styling, Shower Products,
Moisturizers
% of
Subjects
19.22%
11.78%
8.07%
6.77%
5.36%
4.20%
Product
Category
Body lotion
Deodorant
Oral care
Product Combination
(no product)
Body lotion (mass)
Body lotion (other)
Body lotion (prestige)
Body lotion (mass), body lotion (prestige)
Deodorant roll-on
Deodorant spray
(no product)
Deodorant roll-on, body spray
Deodorant spray, body spray
Deodorant spray, deodorant roll-on
Body spray
Deodorant spray, deodorant roll-on, body spray
Toothpaste
Toothpaste, mouthwash
(no product)
Mouthwash
% of
Subjects
81%
11%
5%
3%
1%
59%
17%
10%
6%
4%
2%
1%
<1%
66%
27%
5%
2%
Benzaldehyde
Cinnamaldehyde
Limonene
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Models
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Benzaldehyde
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Benzaldehyde
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Benzaldehyde
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Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
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Benzaldehyde
New Assessment
Benzaldehyde
Example - Vanillin
Vanillin – Approximate relative contribution to P95 aggregate exposure
Example - PEA
Example - PEA
PEA – Approximate relative contribution to P95 aggregate exposure
Inhalation Exposure – Limonene
Ingestion Exposure - Limonene
Dermal Exposure per Surface
Area (BarSoap) - Limonene
Total Exposure (per unit
BW) - Limonene
Total Exposure (per unit
BW) - Limonene
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Big DATA
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Exposure
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Computing
Statistical
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Statistical
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GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Damien Comiskey, Project Manager, Modelling and Statistics
13th October 2014
GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO
20th November 2013
GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO
20th November 2013
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Model Options
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RIFM Model - Options
Level 0 User – Read Only
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Statistics Graphs
Level 2 User – Create Tables
Level 3 User – Upload Large
Data Tables; Advanced Features
Pricing Structure – Per Annum
# of Users
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
to
14
15
to
20
21+
Level 0
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Per User Per User Per User Per User
€1,500
€5,000
€16,000
€32,000
€1,150
€4,500
€15,250
€26,500
€900
€4,000
€14,750
€19,200
€730
€3,600
€14,000
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€13,000
€15,600
€620
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€12,000
€14,400
GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO
20th November 2013
GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO
20th November 2013
GG LL OO BB AA LL
Expert Models for Decision Makers TM
Thank you
Cronan McNamara, CEO
20th November 2013
EU amounts data
Hall et al. (2007)
 496 subjects: EU, M/F, aged 17-74
 Empirical data: each subject’s average
amount per use
 Body Lotion
 Deodorant Spray & Roll-on
 Toothpaste
 Lipstick
 Shampoo
 Face moisturizer
EU amounts data
Hall et al. (2011)
 501 subjects: EU, M/F, aged 17-74
 Empirical data: each subject’s average
amount per use
Mouthwash
Liquid makeup foundation
Hair styling
Shower gel
Hand cream
US amounts data
Loretz et al. (2005)
 Summary statistics and distribution
fit: average amount per use
360 subjects: US, F, aged 19-65

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