Slides

Report
COMP 621U WEEK 3
SOCIAL INFLUENCE AND
INFORMATION DIFFUSION
Nathan Liu ([email protected])
What are Social Influences?
2

Influence:
 People
make decisions sequentially
 Actions of earlier people affect that of later people

Two class of rational reasons for influence:
 Direct
benefit:
 Phone
becomes more useful if more people use it
 Informational:
 Choosing

restaurants
Influences are the results of rational inferences from
limited information.
Herding: Simple Experiment
3

Consider an urn with 3 ball. It can be either:
Majority-blue: 2 blue 1 red
 Majority-red: 2 red, 1 blue



Each person wants to best guess whether the urn is
majority is majority-blue or majority-red:
Experiment: One by one each person:
Draws a ball
 Privately looks at its color ad puts it back
 Publicly announces his guess



Everyone see all the guesses beforehand
How should you guess?
Herding: What happens?
4

What happens?



1st person: guess the color drawn
2nd person: guess the color drawn
3rd person:



Can be modeled Bayesian rule(the first two guesses may
bias the prior)


If the two before made different guesses, then go with his own color
Else: just go with their guess (regardless of the color you see)
P(R|rrb)=P(rrb|R)P(R)/P(rrb)=2/3
Non-optimal outcome:

With prob 1/3×1/3=1/9, the first two would see the wrong
color, from then on the whole population would guess wrong
Examples: Information Diffusion
5
Example: Viral Propagation
6
Example: Viral Marketing
7

Recommendation referral program:
 Senders
and followers of recommendations receive
discounts on products
Early Empirical Studies of Diffusion and Influence
8

Sociological study of diffusion of innovation:

Spread of new agricultural practices[Ryan-Gross 1943]



Spread of new medical practices [Coleman et al 1966]




Studied the adoption of a new hybrid-corn between the 259 farmers
in Iowa
Found that interpersonal network plays important role
Studied the adoption of new drug between doctors in Illinois
Clinical studies and scientific evaluation were not sufficient to convince
doctors
It was the social power of peers that led to adoption
The contagion of obesity [Christakis et al. 2007]

If you have an overweight friend, your chance of becoming obese
increase by 57%!
Applications of Social Influence Models
9
Backward network
engineering
Backward
predictions


Forward network
engineering
Learn from
observed data
Forward
predictions
Forward Predictions: viral marketing, influence
maximization
Backward Predictions: effector/initiator finding,
sensor placement, cascade detection
Dynamics of Viral Marketing (Leskovec 07)
10

Senders and followers of recommendations receive discounts
on products
10% credit
10% off
 Recommendations are made to any number of people at the
time of purchase
 Only the recipient who buys first gets a discount
10
Statistics by Product Group
11
products
customers
recommendations
edges
buy + get
discount
buy + no
discount
Book
103,161
2,863,977
5,741,611
2,097,809
65,344
17,769
DVD
19,829
805,285
8,180,393
962,341
17,232
58,189
Music
393,598
794,148
1,443,847
585,738
7,837
2,739
Video
26,131
239,583
280,270
160,683
909
467
542,719
3,943,084
15,646,121
3,153,676
91,322
79,164
Full
people
recommendations
high
low
11
Does receiving more recommendations
increase the likelihood of buying?
12
DVDs
BOOKS
0.08
0.06
Probability of Buying
Probability of Buying
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.01
0
2
4
6
8
Incoming Recommendations
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Incoming Recommendations
60
Does sending more recommendations
influence more purchases?
13
DVDs
BOOKS
6
Number of Purchases
Number of Purchases
7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
5
4
3
2
1
10
20
30
40
50
Outgoing Recommendations
60
0
20
40
60
80 100 120
Outgoing Recommendations
140
The probability that the sender gets a credit with increasing
numbers of recommendations
14

consider whether sender has at least one successful recommendation
controls for sender getting credit for purchase that resulted from others
recommending the same product to the same person
0.12
0.1
Probability of Credit

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
10
20 30 40 50 60 70
Outgoing Recommendations
80
probability of
receiving a
credit levels
off for DVDs
Multiple recommendations between two individuals weaken the
impact of the bond on purchases
15
DVDs
BOOKS
-3
x 10
0.07
Probability of buying
Probability of buying
12
10
8
6
4
5
10 15 20 25 30 35
Exchanged recommendations
40
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
5
10 15 20 25 30 35
Exchanged recommendations
40
Processes and Dynamics
16

Influence (Diffusion, Cascade):
 Each
node get to make decisions based on which and
how many of its neighbors adopted a new idea or
innovation.
 Rational decision making process.
 Known mechanics.

Infection (Contagion, Propagation):
 Randomly
occur as a result of social contact.
 No decision making involved.
 Unknown mechanics.
Mathematical Models
17

Models of Influence [Easley10a]:
Independent Cascade Model
 Threshold Model
 Questions:

Who are the most influential nodes?
 How to detect cascade?


Models of Infection [Easley 10b]:
SIS: Susceptible-Infective-Susceptible (e.g., flu)
 SIR: Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (e.g., chickenpox)
 Questions:


Will the virus take over the network?
Common Properties of Influence Modeling
18




A social network is represented a directed graph,
with each actor being one node;
Each node is started as active or inactive;
A node, once activated, will activate his neighboring
nodes;
Once a node is activated, this node cannot be
deactivated.
Diffusion Curves
19

Basis for models:
 Probability
of adopting new behavior depends on the
number of friends who already adopted


What is the dependence?
Different shapes has consequences for models of
diffusion
Real World Diffusion Curves
20

DVD recommendation and LiveJournal community
membership
Linear Threshold Model
21
An actor would take an action if the number of his
friends who have taken the action exceeds (reaches) a
certain threshold
 Each node v chooses a threshold ϴv randomly from a
uniform distribution in an interval between 0 and 1.
 In each discrete step, all nodes that were active in the
previous step remain active
 The nodes satisfying the following condition will be
activated
Linear Threshold Diffusion Process
22
Independent Cascade Model
23
The independent cascade model focuses on the sender’s rather
than the receiver’s view
 A node w, once activated at step t , has one chance to
activate each of its neighbors randomly




For a neighboring node (say, v), the activation succeeds with
probability pw,v (e.g. p = 0.5)
If the activation succeeds, then v will become active at step t
+1
In the subsequent rounds, w will not attempt to activate v
anymore.
The diffusion process, starts with an initial activated set of
nodes, then continues until no further activation is possible
Independent Cascade Model Diffusion Process
24
How should we organize revolt?
25




You live an in oppressive society
You know of a demonstration against the
government planned tomorrow
If a lot of people show up, the government will fall
If only a few people show up, the demonstrators
will be arrested and it would have been better had
everyone stayed at home
Pluralistic Ignorance
26


You should do something if you believe you are in
the majority!
Dictator tip: Pluralistic ignorance – erroneous
estimates about the prevalence of certain opinions
in the population
 Survey
conducted in the U.S. in 1970 showed that while
a clear minority of white Americans at that point
favored racial segregation, significantly more than
50% believed it was favored by a majority of white
Americans in their region of the country.
Organizing the Revolt: The Model
27



Personal threshold k: “I will show up if am sure at
least k people in total (including myself) will show
up”
Each node only knows the thresholds and attitudes
of all their direct friends.
Can we predict if a revolt can happened based on
the network structure?
Which Network Can Have a Revolt?
28
Influence Maximization (Kempe03)
29



If S is initial active set let σ(S) denote expected size
of final active set
Most influential set of size k: the set S of k nodes
producing largest expected cascade size σ (S) if
activated.
A discrete optimization problem
maxS of size k  (S )

NP-Hard and highly inapproximable
An Approximation Result
30

Diminishing returns:
pv (u, S )  pv (u, T ) if S  T




Hill-climbing: repeatedly select node with maximum
marginal gain
Analysis: diminishing returns at individual nodes cascade
size σ (S) grows slower and slower with S (i.e. f is
submodular)
if S  T , then (S {u})   (S )   (T {u})   (T )
Theorem: if f is a monotonic submodular function, the kstep hill climbing produces set S for which σ (S) is within
(1-1/e) of optimal
σ(S) for both threshold and independent cascade model
are submodular.
Submodularity for Independent Cascade
0.6
31




Coins for edges are
flipped during
activation attempts.
Can pre-flip all coins
and reveal results
immediately.
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.5
Active nodes in the end are reachable via
green paths from initially targeted nodes.
Study reachability in green graphs
0.3
0.5
Submodularity, Fixed Graph




Fix “green graph” G. g(S)
are nodes reachable from
S in G.
Submodularity: g(T +v) g(T)  g(S +v) - g(S)
when S T.
S
T
g(S)
V
g(T)
g(v)
g(S +v) - g(S): nodes reachable from S + v, but not from
S.
From the picture: g(T +v) - g(T) g(S +v) - g(S) when S
 T (indeed!).
32
Submodularity of the Function
33
Fact: A non-negative linear
combination of submodular
functions is submodular
f ( S )   Prob(G is green graph)  gG ( S )
G



gG(S): nodes reachable from S in G.
Each gG(S): is submodular (previous slide).
Probabilities are non-negative.
Models of Infection (Virus Propagation)
34




How do virus/rumors propagate?
Will a flu-like virus linger or will it die out soon?
(Virus) birth rate β : probability that an infected
neighbor attacks
(Virus) death rate δ : probability that an infected
neighbor recovers
General Schemes
35
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model
36

Process:
Initially, some nodes are in the I state and all others in the S
state.
 Each node v in the I state remains infectious for a fixed
number of steps t
 During each of the t steps, node v can infect each of its
susceptible neighbors with probability p.
 After t steps, v is no longer infectious or susceptible to
further infections and enters state R.


SIR is suitable for modeling a disease that each
individual can only catches once during their life time.
Example SIR epidemic, t=1
37
Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) Model
38


Cured nodes immediately become susceptible
again.
Virus “strength”: s= β/ δ
Example SIS Epidemic
39
Connection between SIS and SIR
40

SIS model with t=1 can be represented as an SIS
model by creating a separate copy of each node
for each time step.
Question: Epidemic Threshold
41


The epidemic threshold of a graph is a value of τ, such that
 If strength s= β/ δ< τ, then an epidemic can not happen
What should τ depend on?
 Avg. degree? And/or highest degree?
 And/or variance of degree?
 And/or diameter?
Epidemic threshold in SIS model
42

We have no epidemic if:
Death rate
Epidemic threshold
 /     1/ 1, A
Birth rate
Largest eigenvalue of
adjacency matrix A
Simulation Studies:
43
Experiments:
44
Does it matter how many people are
initially infected?
References:
45




[Kempe03] D. Kempe, J. Kleinberg, E. Tardos.
Maximizing the Spread of Influence Through a
Social Network. KDD’03
[Leskovec06] J. Leskovec, L. Adamic, B. Huberman.
The Dynamics of Viral Marketing. EC’06
[Easley10a] D. Easley, J. Kleinberg. Networks,
Crowds and Markets, Ch19
[Easley10b] D. Easley, J. Kleinberg. Networks,
Crowds and Markets, Ch20

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