Why invest in Eco ships?

Report
Why invest in Eco ships?
Michele FRANCIONI
CEO RINA SERVICES S.p.A.
Shipping and the Law - October 2014
INVESTING…
IS THIS THE RIGHT TIME FOR INVESTING?
SHIP SUPPLY - BULK CARRIER
(1)
Sources: Banchero Costa research “Dry Bulk Market Update”
SHIP SUPPLY - PRODUCT TANKER
Sources: Banchero Costa research “The Product Tanker Market”
WORLD SHIP SUPPLY
World fleet (mill. dwt)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2007
2008
2009
2010
Tanker
Sources: Clarkson “World Fleet Monitor”
2011
2012
Bulker
2013
2014 (f)
WORLD SHIP DEMAND
Seaborne trade (mill. tons)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Liquid
2011
Bulk
Sources: Clarkson “Oil and Tanker Trade outlook”,
“Dry Bulk Trade outlook”, “Shipping Intelligence Network”
2012
2013
2014 (f)
CHARTER RATES
1 year time charter bulker (USD)
1 year time charter tanker (USD)
50000
80000
70000
40000
60000
50000
30000
40000
20000
30000
20000
10000
10000
0
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Suezmax
Aframax
Panamax
Handysize
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Capesize
Sources: Clarkson “Oil and Tanker Trade outlook”,
“Dry Bulk Trade outlook”, “Shipping Intelligence Network”
Panamax
Handymax
Handysize
IS THE GAP SUPPLY/DEMAND
GOING TO BE RECOVERED SOON?
IS DEMOLITION ACTUALLY HELPING
TO REDUCE THE GAP?
Sources: Banchero Costa research “Dry Bulk Market Update”
DO ECO SHIPS OFFER SIGNIFICANT
RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL?
BANKS
VS
PRIVATE
EQUITY FUND
New orders growth: 55m dwt in 2012  179m dwt
in 2013  66m dwt in 2014 First Quarter
Sources: Clarkson “Shipping Review and Outlook”; Lloyd’s List on-line
PRO ECO SHIP OWNERS
(1)
PRO SECOND-HAND
SHIP OWNERS
(1)
KEY FACTORS FOR CHOICE





New building prices
Second-hand prices
Actual fuel saving
Availability of good second-hand/resales
Operational speed required by the market
ECO SHIP FUEL SAVING, HOW MUCH?
RINA Analysis
Type
Size
DWT
Convent. Ship Average daily fuel
oil consumption
(Tons) 2006-2010
Oil
Tanker
Handysize
40000
29.7
Eco Ship Daily
Average daily
Save per
fuel oil
ship
consumption
(Tons)
(Tons) 2012-2013
22.3
7.4
% Daily
Save
25%
Speed
(kn)
14.4
REGULATORY FACTORS
 IMO – Air emission: 0.1% SOx in ECA 01.01.2015
New and existing ships
 IMO – Air emission: -10% CO2 EEDI 01.01.2015 (2020 & 2025)
New ships
 IMO – Air emission – NOx in ECA 01.01.2016
New ships
 IMO – GBS
01.07.2016
New ships
 IMO – Ballast Water Treatment
not yet into force
New and existing ships
NEW ECO FEATURES :
Is it worth investing?
SULPHUR OXIDES (SOX)
 Exhaust gas cleaning systems (scrubbers)
Nitrous Oxides (NOX)
 SCR - Selective Catalytic Reduction
Ballast Water Convention
 BWTS
IS LNG A SOLUTION?
An holistic approach is needed
Regulation
Financial Issues
Technical Solutions
Laws & Authorizations
Logistic Scenario
Social Perception
The key to success in the risk/return game is not
to minimize or maximize risk but to manage risk
Mark A. Johnson
RINA SERVICES S.p.A.
Thank you for
your attention!
Via Corsica, 12
16128 Genoa - Italy
Ph. +39 010 53851
Fax +39 010 5351000
[email protected]
www.rina.org

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