Scenario Planning Tools & Practice

Report
Scenario Planning Tools & Practice
Robert Goodspeed, PhD
Assistant Professor of Urban Planning
1
Outline
Scenario Planning Introduction
Scenario Planning Tools & Practice
Austin Sustainable Places Project
2
Scenario Planning Introduction
3
Types of Planning
Forecasting
Visioning
Scenario Planning
Challenges
•
-
4
How realistic is the vision?
Can it be implemented
(externally and internally)?
If you build it, will it work as
you expect?
•
•
Forecasts are very
often wrong
Lack a plan of action
if surprises happen
•
•
How to pick the “right”
forces?
How to engage
multiple
stakeholders?
Limits to Forecasting
Metro Detroit Average Daily VMT, Actual and Forecast
170
160
150
Estimated 2013
140
Actual
130
2040 LRP (2013)
2035 LRP (2008)
120
2030 LRP (2004)
2025 LRP
110
2020 LRP
2015 LRP
100
90
80
1980
5
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Note: VMT estimation methodology varies
between studies. Data Sources: SEMCOG,
Suburbs Alliance.
2040
2050
Limits to Expertise
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”
– Lord Kelvin
“With over fifty foreign cars already on sale here, the
Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of
the U.S. market for itself.”
– Business Week, 1968
“I think there is a world market for about five computers”
– Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman, 1943
The Experts Speak, quoted in Schoemaker 1991
6
Scenario Planning
• Combines art (creativity) and science (rigorous
analysis)
• Suited for contexts with high uncertainty and
many non-quantifiable factors
• Possible benefits: (Huss 1988)
–
–
–
–
7
Long range perspective
Learning and consensus
Identifies novel ideas
Encourages contingency planning
Scenario Planning Overview
Identify Key
Internal &
External Driving
Forces
Construct
Multiple Scenarios
That Represent
Potential
“Alternative
Futures”
Analyze Scenarios
See Federal Highway Administration (2011)
8
Select “Preferred”
Scenario for
Implementation
Monitoring &
Adjustment
Scenario Planning Contexts & Scales
•
•
•
•
Nations (e.g., South Africa see Kahane 2012)
Companies (e.g., Royal Dutch Shell, many others see Phelps et al 2001)
Military (e.g. RAND studies of nuclear war)
U.S. Cities and Regions
– 80 integrated land use-transportation scenario
planning projects (Bartholomew 2007)
9
U.S. Land Use-transportation Scenario Planning Projects
Source: Bartholomew 2007
10
Michigan Projects: SEMCOG, "Fiscal Impacts of Alternative Land Development
Patterns in Michigan" (1996), Tri-County Regional Planning Commission (Lansing,
MI), Regional Growth: Choices for Our Future/Regional 2025 Transportation Plan,
2003. Source: Bartholomew 2007.
Who are the stakeholders for land usetransportation scenarios?
• Municipalities
• Metropolitan Planning
Organization
• State Agencies
• Anchor Institutions
• Major Employers
• Developers
• Advocates
• Others?
Collaborative Planning
(NOT consensus)
Why? Stakeholder input needed for a good plan,
cooperation needed for implementation
11
Scenario Planning Tools & Practice
Austin Sustainable Places Project
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Austin
Image: Tour Texas
Fig. 4.9
13
Austin
“Growing a Quality
Community”
“Gateway to the hill
country”
“BBQ Capital of Texas”
“Perfectly Situated”
See Fig. 4.11,
4.13, 4.14, 4.16
14
Planning Process and Time Line
1
Summer 2012
Existing
Conditions
and Visioning
Vision Workshop
October 11, 2012
2
3
4
Fall 2012/ Winter 2013
Spring/ Summer 2013
Fall 2013
Plan Development
and Scenarios
Draft Plan
Final Plan
Documentation
Planning Charrette
January 31, 2013
Public Meetings
Present to City Council
Open House
February 28, 2013
Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop:
Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Lockhart Demonstration Site, January 31, 2013.
City Council Review
and Adoption
Constructing a Scenario
Attendees:
• Property
Owners
• Elected Officials
• Neighborhood
Organizations
• Business
Owners
• Etc
Austin Sustainable Places Project, Lockhart, TX
Source: Goodspeed (2013)
16
Development Type Chip Menu
Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop:
Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Hutto Demonstration Site, November 8, 2012.
• Compact and walkable
• Streetfront retail
• Residential, office and service uses
• Community gathering places
• Mostly 2 - 3 floors
• One chip = 1 acre
• Jobs per chip = 32
• Households per chip = 24
Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop:
Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Hutto Demonstration Site, November 8, 2012.
Real-Time Scenario Planning Indicators
1. Developed Acres
2. Rate of
Redevelopment/Infill
3. Housing by Type
4. Housing Mix
5. Population
6. Employment by Type
7. Employment Mix
8. Jobs-Housing Balance
9. Housing Units per Net
Acre
10. Jobs per Net Acre
11. Property Tax Revenue
12. Sales Tax Revenue
13. Fiscal Impact
Housing by Type
2,500
606
2,000
1,500
153
72
334
1,000
500
-
48
2-481
1,621
171
30
15
96
297
996
Charrette
Scenario
Regional
Growth
Scenario
Trend Scenario
Sales Tax Revenue
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
$1,749,317
$702,015
Charette
Scenario
Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop:
Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Hutto Demonstration Site, November 8, 2012.
$454,414
Regional
Growth
Scenario
Trend Scenario
From multiple Scenario
maps…
Compilation Scenario A
Compilation Scenario B
Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop:
Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Lockhart Demonstration Site, January 31, 2013.
Distill Findings Into Strategic Choices
Scenarios
Analyses
Preferred Plan &
Implementation Program
Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop:
Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Lockhart Demonstration Site, January 31, 2013.
I-PLACE3S User Guide
Chapter 8
Figure 108
Scenario Planning Tools
INDEX PlanBuilder
Select Mark Place Type from the command menu and then select the Place Type you'd like to
mark (Figure 109). Clicking on a polygon will mark all parcels that are contained within the
polygon with the Place Type you have selected.
Figure 109
Getting Started Guide
Indicator maps are also accessed through the Indicator Results table by clicking the map icon in the
right-side column.
Page 90
Envision
Tomorrow
Where?
Illustrative
Indicators
Across the U.S.
•
•
•
•
•
INDEX
505/200
59
Revised: 4/29/08
Urban Footprint
PLACE3S
California
Metros
Metro
Sacramento
June 2010
30 states and 6
countries
Estimated Vehicle Miles Traveled / Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Impervious Surface
Housing Diversity / Affordability
Energy Use
Air Quality
For tool summary see Holway et al (2012)
22
Tools: Scale & Types of Scenarios
23
Image Source: Avin, Uri. "Best Scenarios for Apps Best
Apps for Scenarios" Florida APA Conference, 11
September 2013.
Conclusion
• Good plans:
– smart (good data, analysis & recognize uncertainty)
– lead to implementation (broad support)
• Scenario planning and planning support systems
are set of methods and tools used to do this
• New tools mean you can do this in your
community!
24
Thank You!
Robert Goodspeed
Assistant Professor of Urban Planning
University of Michigan
[email protected]
Twitter: @rgoodspeed
Scenario Planning Tool Research: Goodspeed, Robert. Planning Support Systems for
Spatial Planning Through Social Learning. PhD Dissertation. MIT Department of Urban
Studies and Planning. Available online at: http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/81739
25
Works Cited
Bartholomew, K. 2007. Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality.
Transportation 34 (4):397-412.
Federal Highway Administration. 2011. FHWA Scenario Planning Guidebook. Available online
at
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenario_and_visualization/scenario_planning/scenario
_planning_guidebook/
Holway, Jim, C.J. Gabbe, Frank Hebbert, Jason Lally, Robert Matthews, and Ray Quay. 2012.
Opening Access to Scenario Planning Tools. In Policy Focus Report. Cambridge, Mass.:
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Huss, WR. 1988. A move toward scenario analysis. International Journal of Forecasting 4
(3):377-388.
Kahane, Adam. 2012. Transformative scenario planning : working together to change the
future. 1st ed. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Phelps, R, C Chan, and SC Kapsalis. 2001. Does scenario planning affect performance? Two
exploratory studies. Journal of Business Research 51 (3):223-232.
Schoemaker, PJH. 1991. When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with
illustration. Journal of forecasting 10 (6):549-564.
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