Presentation

Report
www.coneval.gob.mx
Content
CONEVAL
Social Development
Law
(2004)
Evaluation of Social
Development Policy
CONEVAL
• Public institution
• Academic researchers
• Technical autonomy
Multidimensional
Poverty Measurement
Rights to social development
“..to guarantee the full exercise of the social rights set forth in the
Political Constitution of the United Mexican States, ensuring access
to social development to the population as a whole ”
Measuring poverty by mandate of the Law
• Current income per capita
Social
Development
Law
• Educational gap
• Access to health services
Dimensions for
poverty
measurement
• Access to social security
• Quality of living spaces
• Housing access to basic services
Periodicity
States
(2 years)
Municipalities
(5 years)
• Access to food
• Degree of social cohesion
Process
Discussions, criteria & design of data sources
2006
2007
2008
2009
Five
Discussions
Specific
• JulioofBoltvinik
consultations•Bourguignon,Thorbecke,
proposals
Final
discussions
Kakwani, Lustig,Skoufias,
• Satya Chakravarty
& results of
Walton,
Khander,
Reddy,
•
James
Foster,
Sabine
Alkire
Consultation
studies
Consultation
with
experts
Feres,
López-Calva,
…Data
• David Gordon
about
indicators,
among others.
• Rubén Collection
Hernández
thresholds,
questions with
Humberto Soto
public inst.
Survey
Design
National
and
international
seminars
Building the methodology
and
Data
delivery
Presentation
(December)
Consulted Institutions
8
Measuring poverty
Lack of resources
Concept
Capabilities
Unmet needs
Human Rights
“…A human rights approach adds value because it provides a
normative framework of obligations that has the legal power
to render governments accountable”
Mary Robinson
Measuring poverty
(Sen, 1976)
Identification
Who is poor?
Theoretical
framework
(poverty indicator)
Identification criteria
(threshold)
Unidimensional
Incidence
Aggregation
FGT measures
Population groups
Intensity
Severity
Measuring poverty
Relevant
dimensions
Multidimensional
•Thresholds
•Dual cut-off method
Relative
importance
Each specific
dimension
Overall cut-off
Weighting
Principles of human
rights
Indivisible
All rights have equal
Universal
status and cannot
Inalienable
be positioned in a
Universal
hierarchical order
Interdependent
Everybody is
Indivisible
entitled to them
Interrelated
Absolute
Inherent
Inviolable
Irreversible
Progressive
Interdependent
Unfulfillment of any
right affects the
others
Coneval. Human rights based approach
to poverty measurement
Relevant dimensions
Constitutional Human Rights
Unit of analysis
Individuals
•Titularity of human rights
•Universality principle
Dimension specific
thresholds
•Legal norms
•Institutional criteria
Overall cut-off
threshold
•At least one social deprivation
•Interdependence principle
Weighting & Summary
Data sources
•All dimensions equally
important. Adding deprivations.
•Indivisibility principle
Information from Inegi
Methodological approach
Social
Rights
Poverty
Measurement
• Constitutional
guarantees
• Poverty associated with
social deprivation
Economic
Wellbeing
• Economic policy and
income have an impact
on social development
What are the main features of
the methodology?
Current income per capita
• Educational gap
Income
Wellbeing
Mexican
Population
• Access to Health
• Access to Social
Territorial
Security
Degree
of social cohesion
• Housing
6
5
4
3
2
1
Social Deprivation
Index (SDI)
Social Rights
0
• Quality of living
spaces
• Access to Food
Main features
(simple to understand)
Without
D
Vulnerable
e
people by
p
social
Population
with
r
Economic
wellbeing line i
deprivations
social
deprivations
EWL
MULTIDIMENSIONAL POOR
6
5
4
3
2
Deprivations
Social Rights
1
v
a
t
i
o
n
s
0
Not poor and
not
vulnerable
Vulnerable
people by
income
Aggregation: the headcount ratio
Sin
EWL
q
H= _
n
6
5
4
3
2
Deprivations
Social Rights
1
0
Aggregation: Depth & intensity of
poverty
Sin
EWL
1.3
5.7
6
Average
number
of
deprivations
5
4
3
2
Deprivations
Social Rights
1
0
Population with at least one social
deprivation, Mexico, 2008
D
e
p
r
I
v
a
t
i
o
s
Population with social
deprivations
Income
Wellbeing
Without
77.2 %
82.4 millions
2.4 deprivations on average
6
5
4
3
2
1
Deprivations
Social rights
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
0
22.8 %
24.3 millones
Not poor and
not vulnerable
Vulnerable
people by
social
deprivations
Income
Wellbeing
Total population 2008 (106,680,526)
33.0%
35.2 millions
2.0 deprivations
on average
18.3%
19.5 millions
MODERATE
POVERTY
MULTIDIMENSIONAL
POVERTY
EXTREME
POVERTY
6
5
Vulnerable
people by
income
44.2%
47.2 millions
2.7 deprivations on average
4
3
2
1
0
Deprivations
Social Rights
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
4.5 %
4.8 millions
Indigenous and non-indigenous population
Percentage of population in multidimensional poverty depending on whether
they speak or not an indigenous language
100.0
90.0
3.1
1.2
18.3
19.4
20.0
80.0
4.5
4.7
Population not poor and not vulnerable
70.0
Population vulnerable due to income
33.0
60.0
33.9
Population vulnerable due to social
deprivation
50.0
Population in multidimensional poverty
40.0
75.7
30.0
44.2
42.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
National
Indigenous
Non indigenous
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
Multidimensional poverty by state
CHIAPAS
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
Ranks
Total
of States
Percentage of population with social
deprivations. Mexico, 2008
Social deprivation
Percentage
Access to social security
64.7
Access to health services
40.7
Educational gap
21.7
Access to food
21.6
Housing access to basic services
18.9
Quality of living spaces
17.5
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
Contribution of social deprivations
Contribución de cada indicador de carencia social a la intensidad de la pobreza multidimensional,
México, 2008
México, 2008
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
40
30
50
40
30
20 20
Educational
gap Acceso
Access
to health
servicies
Rezago
educativo
a los
servicios
de salud
Accessa to
security
Acceso
la social
seguridad
social
Fuente:
estimacionesdel
delCONEVAL
CONEVAL con
el MCS
-ENIGH2008.
2008.
Fuente:
estimaciones
conbase
baseenen
el MCS-ENIGH
Quality yofespacios
living spaces
Calidad
de la vivienda
la
a
c
x
la
T
z
ru
c
a
r
e
V
n
tá
a
c
u
Y
Zacatecas
s
a
ip
l
u
a
m
a
T
Yucatán
o
c
s
a
b
a
T
Veracruz
ra
o
n
o
S
Tlaxcala
a
lo
a
n
i
S
Tamaulipas
í
s
o
t
o
P
s
i
u
L
n
a
S
Tabasco
o
o
R
a
n
ta
n
i
u
Q
Sonora
ro
a
t
ré
e
u
Q
Sinaloa
la
b
e
u
P
San Luis Potosí
a
c
a
x
a
O
Quintana Roo
n
ó
e
L
o
v
e
u
N
Querétaro
ti
r
a
y
a
N
Puebla
l
a
n
o
i
c
a
N
Oaxaca
s
lo
e
r
o
M
Nayarit
n
á
c
a
o
h
ic
M
Nacional
o
ic
x
é
M
Morelos
o
c
lis
a
J
Michoacán
o
lg
a
d
i
H
México
ro
re
r
e
u
G
Jalisco
to
a
u
j
a
n
a
u
G
Hidalgo
o
g
n
ra
u
D
Guerrero
l
a
r
e
d
e
F
o
itr
t
s
i
D
Guanajuato
a
u
h
a
u
ih
h
C
Durango
s
a
p
ia
h
C
Distrito Federal
a
m
li
o
C
Chihuahua
la
i
u
h
a
o
C
Chiapas
e
h
c
e
p
m
a
C
Colima
r
u
S
ia
rn
o
ifl
a
C
ja
a
B
Coahuila
ia
n
r
fo
li
a
C
ja
a
B
Campeche
Baja California Sur
s
te
n
e
li
a
c
s
a
u
g
A
Baja California
Aguascalientes
0 0
Nuevo León
10 10
s
a
c
te
a
c
a
Z
Housing
to basic
Serviciosacess
básicos
en laservices
vivienda Access
Accesotoafood
la alimentación
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
Multidimensional poverty measures
Properties
Population groups decomposable
Dimension decomposable
Comparability across time
In the space of social rights, equivalent to the M0=H·A
The Social Deprivation Index (SDI) and MD Poverty
Measures
Rigorousity
Satisfy a set of axiomatic properties (Alkire y Foster, 2007)
The SDI also satisfies the validity, reliability and additivity properties
(Gordon; 2007,2010)
Using the methodology
• By linking social rights deprivations with poverty, policy
recommendations are strengthened.
• It is now possible to evaluate the effect of social policy not only
on income poverty but also on specific social deprivations.
• We’re starting to evaluate social programs using this approach.
• A remarkable feature of the methodology is that it
does not only identify poverty (priority), but also it
identifies the whole population without full access to
social rights, which is a comprehensive way of
evaluating public policies.
Research Agenda
ENAPOS. Access to social security
Deepen knowledge of
dimensions
Access to health services
Right to Education (INEE)
ENIGH-MCS
National System of
Social Development
Indicators
Comparison 2008-2010 (July)
Municipality MDP estimates
(December)
Reform to the LGDS
To measure the degree of full
exercise of social rights
Contact information
www.coneval.gob.mx
Consejo Nacional de Evaluación
de la Política de Desarrollo Social
(CONEVAL)
Boulevard Adolfo López Mateos No.160
Col. San Ángel Inn,
Delegación Álvaro Obregón,
C.P. 01060, México, D.F.
Ricardo Aparicio
Director, Poverty Analysis
E-mail:
[email protected]
Examples
House
without
tap water
Income
Wellbeing
Manual
worker
Income
below the
wellbeing
line
MODERATE POVERTY
MULTIDIMENSIONAL
EXTREME
POVERTY
POVERTY
6
5
4
3
2
Deprivations
Social Rights
1
0
He just
completed
primary
school
Examples
She is 15
years old
Income
Wellbeing
She quitted
school to
help her
family
She
completed
the 1st year
of secondary
school and
does not
have social
security
She lives in
a house
with one
bedroom
for 8
people
POBREZA MODERADA
EXTREME
POVERTY
POBREZA
EXTREMA
4
6
5
3
2
Deprivations
Social Rights
1
0
Sometimes
her family
eats once a
day due to
lack of
resources
Examples
He does
not have
social
security
Vulnerable by
social
deprivation
Income
Wellbeing
Selfemployed
Earns an
average
of 2,400
dlls
monthly
6
5
4
3
2
Deprivations
Social Rights
1
0
He will
turn 62
years old
Examples
She owns
her home
which has
all services
Income
Her sales
fell
Wellbeing
She pays
voluntary
social
security.
She
finished
high school
For the last
four
months her
company
costs are
larger than
her income
Vulnerable by
income
6
5
4
3
2
Deprivations
Social Rights
1
0
What policies should be carried
out?
Economic Policies:
•Economic
growth
Sin
•Job creation
EWL
MWL
6
5
4
3
Deprivations
Social Rights
2
1
0
What policies should be carried
out?
Social Policies:
•Health
Sin
•Education
•Housing
EWL
MWL
6
5
4
3
Deprivations
Social Rights
2
1
0
What policies should be carried
out?
Targeted policies
•SocialSin
Programs for the
population in poverty
EWL
MWL
6
5
4
3
Deprivations
Social Rights
2
1
0
What policies should be carried
out?
Universal policies
•Social Security
•Education
for all
Sin
•Access to health services
•Economic growth
EWL
MWL
6
5
4
3
Deprivations
Social Rights
2
1
0
How to determine thresholds?
Social rights
Legal criteria
Use of legal norms,
if they exist
Consultation with specialists
Experts
criteria
Public institutions
Health, Housing, Social
Security, Education
How to determine thresholds of
social deprivations?
Population aged
3-15 years
Educational
gap
Population aged
16 years
or older
She or he is not
attending a formal
educational center
•When someone was born before
1981 and lacks the mandatory
basic education current at the
time he or she should have
completed it. Primary
• When someone was born
before 1982 and lacks the
mandatory basic education
current at the time she should
have completed it. Secondary
How to determine thresholds of
social deprivations?
When a person is not enrolled in or not entitled
to receive medical services from:
Popular Insurance
Acces to health
services
A social security public
institution
A private medical
service
How to determine thresholds of
social deprivations?
Direct
access
Access to
social
security
Family
nucleus
•If the worker does not receive medical
services as a work benefit or through
voluntary enrollment and a retirement
investment plan
•If a person is not enrolled in an institution that
provides medical services by voluntary
enrollment.
•If the spouse,child, parent, -law of the head
of household is not enrolled in an medical
institution
Other family nucleus
and voluntary
enrollment
If the person does not have a
relative who has access to
social security
If the person is not beneficiary of a social
program of pensions for senior citizens
How to determine thresholds of
social deprivations?
When the material is cardboard
sheets or residue material
Roofs
Quality of living
spaces
Walls
When the material is mud or
daub&wattle; reed, bamboo or
palm; cardboard, metal or asbestos
sheets; residue material
Floors
When the material of the floor is
soil
Overcrowding
When the ratio of people
per room is greater than 2.5
How to determine thresholds of
social deprivations?
Water
Housing access
to basic services
Drainage
service
Electricity
•When it is obtained from a well,
river, lake, stream, or truck.
•When piped water is carried
from another dwelling or gotten
at a public faucet or hydrant
• No drainage service.
• When the drain is connected to
pipes leading to a river, lake, sea,
ravine or crack
When there is no electricity
How to determine thresholds of
social deprivations?
Food
security
Acess to
food
Slight
Food
insecurity
Moderate
Severe
Deprivation
due to lack
of access to
food
How to determine thresholds?
Economic Wellbeing
Food basket
Minimum economic
wellbeing line
Non food basket
Economic wellbeing
Changes on current
consumption patterns
Necessary goods
& services
Calorics requirements
& micronutrients
Goods and services have
an income elasticity<1
Rural & urban settings
Rural & urban settings

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