Indo-China Relations During Cold War Era

Report
INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS:DIMENSIONS
AND PERSPETIVES
DR.SHAILENDRA DEOLANKAR
DIRECTOR
GOVT PRE-IAS TRAINIG
CENTRE,AMRAVATI
DR.DEOLANKAR-2014
INDIA-CHINA:UNCOMMON
RIVALS
India-China :Long History of Animosity
 Contagious Border
 Nuclear Powers
 Cut throat competition
 Armies and their assertion for survival
 Economic Growth :Uncomplimentary
 Education, Technology: Widening Gap
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Mapping Differences
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Differences in foreign policy orientations
Bifurcation in foreign and domestic policies
Professionalism Vs Idealism(Case Study of
1962)
Individual Vs Institution
Interest Vs ideology(UN,ASEAN)
Policy of aggressive deterrence Vs Policy of
restrain and patience
Pragmatism Vs Hypocrisy(Nuclear)
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Indo-China Relations During
Cold War Era
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Border Problem-
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Tibet issue
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China Pakistan Nexus
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Indo-China Relations during
Post cold war relations
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
From Estrangement to Engagement
Changing Chinese perspective towards India
Strengthening of Indo-US Relations in the post cold
war era
The emergence of India as a nuclear weapons state,
The steady economic growth with an average 8%
annual growth rate, India’s increasing ability to
influence regional and global events,
Indian’s growing engagements with the regional and
global powers,
India’s quest to become a regional super power,
India’s membership to several influential bodies
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Overlapping of interests:
Indispensability of Collective
efforts
Economics and Trade
 Containing Terrorism
 Nuclear Energy
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Widening rift between US and
China: Implications for India
The US-China relations are suffering from strain and stresses in the post cold war era due to
following factors

China is superseding US in almost all fields.
Experts are predicting that the US is declining
power and by mid 21st century it will relegate to
third position after India and china. China’s
increasing military and economic strength has
threatened the vital US security and trade
interests in Asia. Ascending china with 1.3billion
people, 40%savings rate and $ 2 trillion currency
reserve has indeed surprised the world. China has
become world’s largest manufacturer. China has
strengthened its security system exponentially in
last one and half decade.This military strength is
core to china’s foreign and strategic policy.
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Widening rift between US and
China: Implications for India

China’s territorial conflict with almost fifteen countries is
one of the important reasons for rising US involvement in
Asia. China has border problems with India, Russia, Japan
and several south East Asian countries. Prominent among
these are china’s conflict with Japan on Senkaku and with
south East Asian nations on Spartley. China has declared
south china as its core area of strategic interests along
with Taiwan,Tibet and Xin Xiang.This Chinese posture has
made south East Asian countries insecure. Recently china
made several hawkish and aggressive pronouncements
over border issues with the south and south East Asian
countries which have created shockwaves. With these
moves china has antagonized Japan, South Korea and India
along with several other south East Asian counties.These
countries are now contemplating a countervailing strategy
to contain Chinese misadventures.
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Widening rift between US and
China: Implications for India

These Chinese moves also threatened the US
security and trade interests in Asia and
reinforced its involvement in maintaining
increasing imbalance of power in Asia. There
are host of issues which has strained the
relations between US and China. These
includes Chinese stand on north Korean
nuclear programmes, Nuclear nexus between
china and Pakistan, Chinese attempt to
replace American dollar as a reserve currency
of world, china’s totalitarian political system,
instances of gross violation of human rights in
china, china’s opposition to several US moved
resolution at United Nations Security Council
among others.
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Widening rift between US and
China: Implications for India
China is consistently increasing its spending on defense. The Chinese
defense budget is on ascendance since last one decade. There is fivefold
increase in the Chinese defense budget from 2000 to 2012.In its 12th Five
Year Plan, china’s defense expenditure has increased by 12%.Chinse
attempts to increase its defense budget has made its neighbors more
insecure.
 In the backdrop of these issues, few analysts predicts of possibility of
rejuvenation of cold war like situation .In order to contain the rapid
expansion of Chinese influence in Asia, the US has redesigned its strategic
policy in Asia. The new policy emphasizes on strong US presence in Asia. As
a part of this new policy, the US is trying to control china’s energy
resources transport lanes by attaining military superiority over central,
south and south East Asia. The US planning to encircle china by negotiating
defense agreements with its neighboring countries and turning them into
US satellites. The US arms supply to Taiwan, Joint military exercise with
South Korea and India, dispatching aircraft carriers to the yellow sea are
some of the recent moves of US which has infuriated china and caused
strains in US-China relationship.
 The US wishes and encourages political reforms in China. The US while
criticizing the totalitarian regime in china and appealing for democratic
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Widening rift between US and
China: Implications for India
reforms in its political system. China is considering these US attempts as
interference in its domestic affairs.
 The instances of human rights violation in china are the centre of US
criticism. The US is using international platforms like UNHRC to criticize
china and directing several international NGOs to target china for gross
violation of human rights.
 The ambitious National Missile Defense System programme of US has
infuriated china as it considered the programme an US attempt to create
anti-china security system and to neutralize china’ Intercontinental Ballistic
Missiles. The programme aims to provide an umbrella protection cover to
the US and its allies both in Europe and Asia from the possible missile
attack of China and Russia. The 2004 Defense White Paper of China openly
voiced its concerns against these US attempts. The paper states, “the US is
realigning and reinforcing its military presence in this region by buttressing
military alliances and accelerating deployment of missile defense systems”
China is accusing US of violating the provisions of 1972 Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty which prohibits the member countries to develop antimissile systems
 The china factor has provided opportunity for US and India to intensify
cooperation. The US and India’s interests overlap in countering china
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Instability in Asian Security
scenario
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a US-China rivalry which will increase instability
and tension in Asia and may even lead to war.
With China’s increasing economic heft, aggressive
growth of sea power and focus on augmenting its
naval capabilities, it is possible that at a point the
interests of the two powers may clash.
There is a possibility that the US might be drawn
into a Sino-Taiwanese conflict or a clash in the
South China Sea.
Both India and china are in search of a dominant
role in Asia and because
China sees India as the most likely competitor for
great power status in Asia.
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Rapkin and Thompson (2006)
Model of conflict
First, all aspiring powers felt the necessity
to take on another powerful state in the
global order.
 Second, most great powers emerge from
greatly troubled neighbourhood; and
 Last, they start out as being the
predominant power within the
neighbourhood.
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War is unlikely because
Economic development requires peace
 growing economic interdependence, and
 presence of nuclear weapons,
 cooperation on global forums
 growing convergence of interests
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PROBLEM AREAS
China’s increasing preponderance in
Asia
 Projecting India as a Counterweight
to China
 China-Pak Nexus
 Widening economic and military
gap between India and china
 Chinese Policy of Encirclement
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Choices before India
To embark on massive military buildup
especially qualitative and quantitative
expansion of its nuclear weapons
 To enter into alliance especially with the
US, Russia and Japan
 To settle major disputes with china
 Not to offend china
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Choices before India
India could simply concede ground to PRC and make
significant territorial concessions. This option has the
potential to prevent immediate conflict but it may
embolden the PRC to seek further concessions.
 A second strategy would be to align with the United
States.
 Third, India could embark on a strategy of internal
balancing. Indeed, India has started following this
strategy in a rather haphazard fashion.
 A fourth, and most likely path that India might pursue
involves elements of the first three, involving,
intermittent concessions to China, growing alignment
with Japan, naval cooperation with the US and steady
expansion of its own internal military capabilities.
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DR.DEOLANKAR-2014
DR.SHAILENDRA DEOLANKAR
DIRECTOR
GOVT PRE-IAS TRAINIG
CENTRE,AMRAVATI
CONTACT DETAILS
CELL- 9702035800,
8550971888
Email- [email protected]
DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

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