Slide 0 - Aksa Enerji

Report
Aksa Enerji
The leading IPP in Turkey
Q4 2013 Earnings Presentation
February, 2014
Disclaimer
Aksa Enerji Üretim A.Ş. ("Aksa Enerji") has prepared this presentation material (the “Document”) for the sole purposes of
providing information which includes opinions and estimates and certain forward looking projections and statements relating
to Aksa Enerji, the Turkish electricity market and other subjects (the “Information”). The Information has been compiled or
arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable as of the date of this Document, but no representation or
warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The forward looking projections and
statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause
actual results to differ materially due to factors outside the control of Aksa Enerji, which undertake no duty to update or
revise any such projections or statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Neither the
Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell Aksa Enerji shares. Aksa Enerji
expressly disclaims any and all liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this Document
or the Information or for any omissions from Information or any other written or oral communication transmitted or made
available. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed, reproduced or distributed for any purpose.
1
Contents
Q4 2013 Operational & Financial Results
1
Executive Summary
2
Quarter Highlights
3
Operational Indicators
4
Recent Developments
5
Financial Performance
Appendix
1
Turkish power market
2
Aksa Enerji overview
2
Executive Summary
2012
2013
YoY
Change
Installed Capacity (MW)
2.045
2.052
7 MW
2.045
2.052
7 MW
2.052
2.052
-
Sales Volume (GWh)
9.784
9.109
-7%
2.225
2.399
8%
2.570
2.399
-7%
60%
56%
-4pp
54%
58%
+4pp
67%
58%
-9pp
1.841
1.786
-3%
433
457
6%
537
457
-15%
Gross Profit (TL mn)
236
220
-7%
45
48
7%
88
48
-45%
Operating Inc. (TL mn)
218
196
-10%
39
38
-3%
84
38
-55%
EBITDA (TL mn)
323
312
-3%
67
72
8%
112
72
-36%
Net Income (TL mn)
220
-133
nm
22
-64
nm
-13
-64
nm
18,0%
17,5%
-1pp
15,0%
15,8%
+1pp
21,0%
15,8%
-5pp
12%
11%
-1pp
9%
8%
-1pp
16%
8%
-8pp
Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR)
Net Sales (TL mn)
EBITDA Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Sales volumes include sales derived from TEIAŞ’s Load Rejection Order (YAT: Yük Atma Talimatı)
CUR includes capacity sales for frequency controls
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
YoY
Change
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
QoQ
Change
3
We are the second largest IPP in Turkey with
2,066MW installed capacity
IPPs by Installed Capacity
2.560
2,066
1,585
1,490
(MW)
1,605
952
Enerjisa
Aksa Enerji
Source: Information obtained from each
İÇDAŞ
3.1%
Eren Enerji
Cengiz
Zorlu Enerji
2011
Akenerji
410
365
Bis Enerji
AES Entek
3.6%
Publicly listed companies
Share of Aksa Enerji in Annual
Generation of Turkey (MWh)
3.7%
3.2%
2012
2013
2.7%
2010
Share of Aksa Enerji in Annual
Generation of IPPs (MWh)
12.0%
3.8%
10.8%
10.5%
2.0%
2010
746
IPP’s annual report or website.
Share of Aksa Enerji in Installed
Capacity of Turkey (MW)
3.8%
Limak
777
9.9%
2011
2012
2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: TEİAŞ, company information.
Aksa Enerji is one of the leading IPPs in Turkey with 11% market share in total generation of IPPs
4
Market Highlights
► Electricity production in Turkey increased by 5% in 4Q13 compared to 4Q12.
electricity consumption has increased by a mere
1.4% compared to 2012, which is short of
Treasury’s expected GDP growth rate of 3.6%, a
rare occasion in the last few years. Reasons for
low growth rate are:
•
•
•
Favorable weather conditions
12
10
8
Growth (%)
► In 2013 as a whole however, Turkey’s
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Gas shortage in December
Decrease in consumption of some
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Electricity Consumption Growth
2011
2012
2013
GDP Growth
of the heavy industrial users
5
Market Highlights
►Although the demand has increased by 1.4%, the production of electricity has remained flat in 2013
compared to 2012 due to the decrease in exports and increase in imports. (Imports have increased by
1.6TWh, while exports have decreased by 1.7TWh.)
►In 2013, 7,000MW new capacity
came into the market. The slow down in
consumption and continuing increase in
230
Gas
shortage
Gas
shortage
210
supply have been reflected on
190
electricity prices in the spot market.
170
150
130
December
October
November
2013
September
July
May
April
June
2012
August
155TL/MWh in 2013, compared to
70
March
market electricity price was flat at
90
February
December, the weighted average spot
110
January
►Despite the gas shortage in
156TL/MWh in 2012.
6
Turkish power market
Supply dynamics
Breakdown of installed capacity by fuel type and ownership (December 31, 2013)
Wind, 4%
Fuel oil, 1%
Others, 2%
Auto-producers
5%
BOT,TOR,BOO
15%
EUAS
(Government)
37%
Natural
Gas, 38%
Lignite &
coal, 19%
Hydro,
35%
Total installed capacity:
64.0 GW
IPPs
43%
Breakdown of generation by fuel type and ownership (December 31, 2013)
Wind Fuel-Oil
3%
2%
Hydro
25%
Lignite &
Coal
25%
EUAS
34%
IPPs
35%
Others
1%
Natural
gas
44%
Natural gas is the dominant fuel type
2013 Generation:
239.3 TWh
BOT,
TOR,BOO
26%
AutoProducers
5%
Share of the state is decreasing
Source:TEIAS
7
Company Highlights
► Although slightly overshadowed by lower than expected demand and spot prices, major operational
indicators recorded a pleasing performance in Q4 2013.
►Amongst the planned acquisitions of 3 operational power plants from Kazancı Holding, the acquisition of
Kapıdağ wind farm has been completed. The other two power plants are awaiting EMRA approval.
►Financing regarding the remaining turbine equipments for the 3 WEPP projects has been finalized with
leasing companies.
8
Company Highlights
► 4MW of Belen / Atik 30MW wind farm project has been commissioned and taken into commercial
operation; bringing up the number of total operating power plants to 16, total installed capacity to
2,052MW in 2013 and additionally the second phase of this project, 14MW, has also been operational this
month, increasing our current installed capacity to 2,066MW and total renewable capacity to 217MW.
►Constructions of the 2 windfarms with a total installed capacity of 57MW will be operational this year
step by step starting from April.
►The construction of Bolu/Göynük lignite fired power plant, which started on 13 July 2012, continues as
planned. This plant will have an installed capacity of 270MW and the first phase, 135MW, is expected to be
operational in December 2014. The second phase, 135MW, is planned to become operational in 1Q 2015.
As this plant will have an annual production volume of 2bn kwh, it will make a very significant addition to
our EBITDA in 2015.
9
Capacity and Production Increases in Renewables
and Local Fuel
Targeted Capacity Increases in Renewables & Lignite (MW)
900
18%
10%
27%
800
3500
185
700
270
600
62
500
3000
2500
135
2000
12
400
135
200
15
100
188
275
135
13
300
1500
28
71
1000
271
259
0
500
0
2013
2014 Additions
% of total installed capacity
2013 Capacity Increases
Acquisitions
35 MW Kapıdağ WEPP 
(completed in June 2013, 24MW in
commercial operation)
 13.4MW Akköy HPP
 24MW Siirt HFO

4000
2014
Wind
2015 Additions
Hydro
2016 Additions
Lignite
WEPP to be commissioned in 2014
87MW WEPP
 Belen 30MW, greenfield
(4MW in commercial operation
since Sep 2013 & 14 MW since
Feb 2014)
 Kıyıköy 27MW, greenfield
 Sebenoba 30MW, extension
2017 Additions
2017
Estimated Generation (GWh)
Under Construction
147 MW HPP
 Kozbükü, 62MW, greenfield (2016)
 Sansa, 85MW, greenfield (2017)
270 MW Lignite Fired PP (2x135MW)
 Bolu-Göynük, greenfield (2014-2015)
 Annual production volume: 2bn kwh
10
Customer Mix and Sales
More diversified and well balanced customer mix
Customer Mix
2012
Total Sales Volume: 9.8 Twh
Affiliated
Northern
DisCos,
2%
Cyprus, 6%
Regional
Sales, 5%
BSM, 30%
Exports, 13%
2013
Total Sales Volume: 9.1 Twh
Bilateral
Agreements,
40%
Northern
Regional Cyprus, 7%
Sales, 1%
Affiliated
DisCos, 3%
BSM, 25%
Renewable
Market, 4%
Renewable
Market, 3%
Bilateral
Agreements,
60%
• Share of bilateral sales has increased from 40% to 60% in 2013, replacing exports.
• Including Northern Cyprus and Affiliated Retail sales, total contracted sales reached 70% of total sales volume in 2013
vs 48% in 2012
* Sales volume includes sales derived from TEIAŞ’s Load Rejection Order (YAT: Yük Atma Talimatı)
11
Our sales mix is getting more diversified and secure,
increasing our capacity utilization
Capacity
Utilization
44%
56%
11
Balancing Market
TWh
9TWh
Northern Cyprus
8
Wholesale Bilateral
Sales
to BSM
Retail Bilateral
29%
2.6
BSM
6.5
Contracted 71%
6
4.2 TWh
4
86%
BSM
3.6 3.6
14%
Contracted
0.60.6
2010
Total
Contracted
Sales
2
0
2010
2013
2010 - Contracted Sales

245 bilateral customers(1)

592 GWh contracted sales
2013 Average Sales Price (TL/MWh)
Total Contracted Average: 186
2013
2013 - Contracted Sales
Total BSM Average: 178

24,987 bilateral
customers(1)

6,5 GWh contracted sales

71% of total sales
789
 out of which 186 GWh is
bilateral

14% of total sales
328
169
Bilateral
174
Affiliated
DisCos
165
Northern
Cyprus
BSM
138
Regional
Sales
Renewables
(1) Bilateral customers are contracted by the affiliates of Kazancı Group. Aksa Enerji has contracts with the affiliates of Kazancı Group.
12
At the same time, we are shifting bilateral mix towards
more profitable commercial clients
Increasing Contracted Volume Supported by
Affiliated Distribution Regions
Evolution of Eligibility Limit
2003
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Eligibility
Threshold
(MWh/Year)
25
9,000
5
2014 2015
4.5
0
# of Bilateral
Customers (2)
% of Commercial
Customers (3)GWh
19.6x
245
610
1,275
24,987
36%
64%
81%
98%
8,305
9,000
Market
Openness (1)
77%
23%
7,700
47%
6,400
Tariffs and Aksa Bilateral Sales Price (TL/MWh)
64%
3,782
5,100
1,141%
3,800
220
"increase in Industrial
Customer Base"
"increase in Commercial
Customer Base" (3)
2,500
1,200
200
18%
5,996
2,303
17%
18%
186
10%
72% 28%
90%
82%
2010
2011
2012
83%
Already
contracted
2013
E2014 Bilateral
Contracted (4)
-100
Δ= 16%
180
Industrial volume
Commercial volume
Total bilateral sales volume
Further Room for Growth in
Affiliated Regions (5)
160
140
1.9m
1%
5.6TWh
Aksa
Enerji
12%
Potential
88%
120
ÇORUH
FIRAT
99%
100
Jan-10
Jan-11
Commercial Tariff
Jan-12
Industrial Tariff
Jan-13
Aksa Blended Bilateral Price
Customer
Volume
Electricity distribution
Breakdown
Breakdown
regions of Kazancı
(1) Consumption of eligible customers divided by total consumption.
(2) Bilateral customers are contracted by the affiliates of Kazancı Group. Aksa Enerji has contracts with the affiliates of Kazancı Group.
Holding
(3) Commercial and household clients. (4) Includes actual contracted and sold till the end of November 2013 and an estimate for December. (5) Aksa Enerji figures based on latest
numbers of customers and 2013 contracted volume while the figures of affiliated distribution regions are based on 2012.
13
Financial highlights
Consolidated income statement
Net sales & EBITDA (TL mn)
2,00 0
22.9%
1,841
1,786
25. 0%
1,841
1,786
1,80 0
1,60 0
20. 0%
20.7%
1,40 0
1,315
17.6%
433
457
EBITDA Margin
2012: 15.6%
2013: 15.8%
17.5%
1,20 0
1,00 0
EBITDA Margin
2012: 17.6%
2013: 17.5%
15. 0%
912
800
10. 0%
600
323
301
188
400
312
323
5.0 %
312
67
72
200
-
0.0 %
2010
2011
Net Sales
2012
EBITDA
2013
Net Sales
2012
EBITDA %
EBITDA
2013
Net Sales
4Q12
EBITDA
4Q13
Operating income & Net income (TL mn)
208
203
220
196
203
196
220
234
117
69
39
2010
2011
2012
2013
Operating Income
38
Net Income
Operating Income
-122
Operating Income
Source:IFRS financial statements
-133
Net Income
Net Income
-133
2012
2013
-64
4Q12
4Q13
14
Financial highlights
Net financial debt and repayment schedule
Net financial debt (TL mn)
1350
61%
1300
1306
1280
1270
1250
62%
60%
55%
55%
1200
58%
56%
54%
1138
1150
64%
52%
52%
1100
50%
48%
1050
46%
2010
6.0
Net Financial Debt
2011
2012
2013
4.2
4.0
4.2
Leverage Ratio
Net Financial Debt/EBITDA
Repayment schedule of short and long term notes (TL mn)
Short-term
portion of the
long-term loans
411
184
Revolving
facilities
198
174
149
131
1-2 Years
2-3 Years
3-4 Years
4-5 Years
69
Short Term
5+ Years
Source:IFRS financial statements
15
Consolidated income statement
*
(TLm)
2010
2011
2012
2013
911,9
-775,5
1315,4
-1088,0
1840,6
-1604,0
1786,0
-1565,9
526,9
-431,5
340,8
-313,7
540,1
-470,7
432,8
-388,2
391,5
-341,0
400,3
-367,1
536,7
-448,5
457,4
-409,3
136,4
15%
-17,8
-1,8
0,0
227,4
17%
-16,0
-3,0
0,0
236,6
13%
-16,7
-2,1
0,0
220,1
12%
-18,0
-2,0
0,0
95,4
18%
-4,8
-0,3
0,0
27,1
8%
-4,8
-0,4
0,0
69,4
13%
-2,7
-0,4
0,0
44,7
10%
-4,4
-0,9
0,0
50,5
13%
-3,9
-0,2
0,0
33,3
8%
-4,4
-0,5
0,0
88,2
16%
-4,4
-0,2
0,0
48,1
11%
-5,3
-1,1
0,0
116,7
12,8%
7,0
4,6
-43,5
208,3
15,8%
0,0
-51,3
-273,5
217,8
11,8%
0,0
0,0
221,0
200,1
11,2%
0,0
0,0
142,8
90,3
17,1%
2,6
68,6
21,9
6,4%
-12,1
-18,3
66,3
12,3%
39,4
9,1%
46,4
11,8%
28,4
7,1%
83,7
15,6%
41,6
9,1%
-1,5
-11,2
11,1
181,9
0,1
-21,8
-2,7
-102,2
-1,9
-90,6
4,5
357,3
Earnings before incom e tax
EBT margin
Tax
84,7
9,3%
-14,1
-116,5
-8,9%
-5,5
226,5
12,3%
-6,6
-156,1
-8,7%
22,8
161,4
30,6%
-6,0
-8,6
-2,5%
0,6
53,5
9,9%
-2,4
232,0
53,6%
1,2
24,7
6,3%
-3,9
-76,5
-19,1%
-1,1
-8,9
-1,7%
-3,7
-95,4
-20,9%
-1,0
Net incom e
Net income margin
69,4
7,6%
-122,0
-9,3%
219,9
11,9%
-133,3
-7,5%
155,4
29,5%
-8,0
-2,3%
50,7
9,4%
233,7
54,0%
20,8
5,3%
-77,6
-19,4%
-12,6
-2,3%
-63,9
-14,0%
188,3
20,7%
300,8
22,9%
323,1
17,6%
311,8
17,5%
119,9
22,7%
43,9
12,9%
92,0
17,0%
67,3
15,6%
73,0
18,7%
54,3
13,6%
112,3
20,9%
72,2
15,8%
Net sales
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Gross profit margin
General & administrative costs
Sales and marketing costs
Research & development costs
Operating incom e
Operating income margin
Goodw ill income/(expense)
Other income/(expense)
Financing income/(expense)
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Source:IFRS financial statements
16
Consolidated balance sheet
(TL mn)
Source:IFRS financial statements
Assets
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cash and cash equivalents
Trade receivables net
Due from related parties and shareholders
Inventory
Derivative Financial Instruments
Other current assets
Total current assets
78,3
113,0
607,9
81,3
–
71,5
952,0
110,5
261,5
360,0
121,5
–
90,7
944,3
40,9
245,9
593,9
135,5
–
84,6
1100,8
22,3
142,3
0,0
250,0
–
77,4
492,0
Trade receivables
Investments
PP&E
Goodw ill
Intangibles
Other non-current assets
Deferred tax assets
Total non-current assets
–
1,6
1375,7
6,0
0,7
20,3
4,1
1408,4
–
1,6
1613,0
9,5
1,1
43,4
4,1
1672,7
–
1,6
1627,3
9,5
1,7
87,0
4,1
1731,2
–
1,5
2109,7
9,5
1,9
113,2
36,7
2272,6
Total assets
2360,5
2617,0
2832,0
2764,6
Liabilities
2010
2011
2012
2013
Financial liabilities
Trade payables, net
Due to Related Parties and Shareholders
Taxation payable on income
Other payables and accrued liabilities
Total current liabilities
413,2
197,6
–
13,5
9,9
634,2
489,5
359,5
–
4,4
70,4
923,8
564,3
284,7
–
6,6
11,7
867,3
265,6
326,1
–
7,5
14,8
614,0
Long-term financial liabilities
Retirement pay provision
Other liabilities
Deferred tax liability
Long Term Liabilities
803,4
1,3
–
2,9
807,6
891,5
1,8
–
2,9
896,2
756,4
2,2
–
2,9
761,5
1062,7
3,0
–
3,5
1069,2
Paid in capital
General reserves
Share premium
Cash Flow Hedge Reserve
Net profit for the year
Shareholder's equity
579,5
173,7
96,0
–
69,4
918,6
579,5
242,9
96,5
–
-122,0
797,0
615,2
121,0
247,4
–
219,7
1203,2
615,2
342,7
247,4
2,1
-133,3
1074,1
2360,5
2617,0
2832,0
2757,3
Total liabilities and equity
17
Consolidated statement of cash flows
(TLmn)
2010
2011
2012
2013
Net income (loss)
69,4
-122,0
219,9
-133,3
Depreciation and amortisation
71,7
92,5
105,3
111,8
13
236,8
-46,4
193,0
-67,1
-20,3
-189,4
7,5
87
187,1
89,3
178,9
Purchased of PP&E
-315,1
-330,2
-130,4
-395,7
Investing cash flow s
-333,9
-334,6
-116,9
-395,4
Financing cash flow s
308,9
179,4
-41,9
219,5
62
31,8
-69,4
3,1
Other adjustments
Change in w orking capital
Operating cash flow s
Net cash flow s
Source:IFRS financial statements
18
Operational Assets
Power plant
Installed capacity
MW (Current)
Licensed owner
Fuel type
Mardin 1
Aksa Energy
Fuel-oil
30.00
Mardin 2
Rasa Elektrik
Fuel-oil
35.10
Northern Cyprus
Aksa Cyprus
Fuel-oil
120.00
İdil
İdil İki Energy
Fuel-oil
24.00
Total fuel-oil fired power plants
209.10
Antalya NGCC
Aksa Energy
Natural gas
1,150.00
Manisa NGCC
Aksa Energy
Natural gas
115.26
Van NGCC
Rasa Energy
Natural gas
114.88
Samsun
Aksa Energy
Fuel-oil conversion to natural gas
131.34
Ş.Urfa NGCC
Rasa Energy
Natural Gas
128.62
Total natural gas fired power plants
1,640.10
Balıkesir Şamlı
Baki
Wind
114.00
Hatay Sebenoba
Deniz
Wind
30.00
Manisa Karakurt
Deniz
Wind
10.80
Ayvacık
Ayres
Wind
5.00
Kapıdağ
Kapıdağ Energy
Wind
24.00
Aksa Energy
Wind
18.00
Belen / Atik
Total wind power plants
Çorum İncesu
201.80
Aksa Energy
Hydro
15.00
Total hydro electric power plants
15.00
Total power plants
2,066
19
Ongoing Investments and Revised Licence Portfolio
Planned Acquisitions from Kazancı Holding
 Planned acquisitions from Kazancı Holding
Additional Capacity
Power Plant
Investment
License Owner
Fuel Type
(MW)
Completion Year
Siirt
Operational
Kazancı Holding
Fuel-Oil
24
2014
Akköy
Operational
Kazancı Holding
Hydro
13
2014
Datça
Licenced
Kazancı Holding
Wind
12
2015
Total
Under Construction
Bolu Göynük
Greenfield
Aksa
Lignite
270
2014-15
Kıyıköy
Greenfield
Alenka
Wind
27
Sebenoba
Extension
Deniz
Wind
30
2014
2014
Kozbükü
Greenfield
Idil Iki
Hydro
62
2016
Sansa
Greenfield
Aksa
Hydro
85
2017
474
Installed Capacity
Şanlı Urfa
Location
License Owner
Fuel Type
(MW)
Completion Year
Şanlı Urfa
Rasa
Natural Gas
141
2016
Antalya
Antalya
Aksa
Natural Gas
900
2017
Indere
Kayseri
Aksa
Hydro
30
2017
Efrenk
Mersin
Aksa
Hydro
20
2017
Yamanlı
Adana
Aksa
Hydro
24
2017
Bitlis
Aksa
Hydro
26
2017
Kor
 Construction work is in progress for one lignite
fired PP and four renewable projects
 270 MW local lignite fired PP
 57 MW wind farm
Licenced
Power Plant
 Datça 12 MW wind farm licence
 Akköy 13 MW operating hydroelectrical
PP
49
Total
 Siirt 24 MW operating fuel-oil PP
Total
 147 MW hydroelectrical PP
 1,141 MW of licenced projects
1.141
Exclusive Negotiations to Obtain Licence
Şahinkaya
Ordu
Aksa
Hydro
85
Post 2017
Tatlar
Kayseri
Rasa
Hydro
59
Post 2017
Avluca
Giresun
Idil Iki
Hydro
40
Post 2017
Kazan
Bingöl
Deniz
Hydro
20
Post 2017
Tor
Kastamonu
Aksa
Hydro
120
Post 2017
Narlı
Bitlis
Aksa
Hydro
89
Post 2017
Akçay 1
Denizli
Gesa
Hydro
15
Post 2017
Akçay 2
Denizli
Gesa
Hydro
10
Post 2017
Total
 438 MW of projects in exclusive negotiations to
obtain licence post 2017
438
20
11aLD0408_Client template 1
21

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