drought risk management

Report
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
HMNDP Leadership!
WMO
FAO
UNCCD
hmndp.org
Steps to HMNDP
• 16th Session WMO Congress, 2011
• Expert Meeting, Compendium of Best Practices on
NDP, George Mason University, 2011
• International Symposium on Integrated Drought
Information Systems, Casablanca, 2011
• 1st IOC meeting, Geneva
• Briefing session, Diplomatic Missions, April 2011
• 2nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012
• Rio +20 Side Event, Rio de Janeiro, October 2012
• Meeting with key sponsors to finalize program,
November, 2012
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Presentation Outline
• The ENIGMA OF DROUGHT — a sense
of urgency
– Drought as hazard, characteristics, definition
– Hydro-illogical Cycle/Crisis Management
• Our CHANGING CLIMATE—
CHANGING VULNERABILITY
• Building SOCIETAL RESILIENCE
– Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems
– Vulnerability/risk/impact assessments
– Mitigation and response measures
• Moving towards a POLICY FRAMEWORK that
enhances preparedness and risk reduction
– Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)
– Compendium of best practices in support of NDP
– Projected goals and outcomes of HMNDP: School of Natural Resources
Applied Climate Sciences
Recommendations for Future Actions
The Enigma of Drought
Drought—as hazard
• a normal part of climate.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Drought—as hazard
• a normal part of climate.
• occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Mexico City, Mexico
Applied Climate Sciences
Adelaide, Australia
School of Natural Resources
Drought—as hazard
•
•
•
•
a normal part of climate.
occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.
characteristics vary between regions.
definitions must be region and
application specific.
• impacts are a good measure of
severity and an indicator of societal
vulnerability or resilience.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Defining Drought
-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific
Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from
expected or “normal” that extends over a season or
longer period of time (duration) . . . . .
Meteorological Drought
Precipitation
Rainfall deciles
Mean or Median
Time (months, years)
It’s so dry . . .
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Defining Drought
-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific
Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from
expected or “normal” that extends over a season or
longer period of time (duration) . . . . .
Meteorological Drought
and is insufficient to meet the demands of human
activities and the environment (impacts).
Agricultural,
Hydrological and
Socio-economic
Drought
Cascading Impacts
Evolution of Drought Types
What are
the indices
and
indicators?
Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought
Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)
Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management & policy
Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts
Drought Risk
Reduction
Hydrological
Agricultural
Meteorological
Rainfall
Deficiencies
Heat Stress
Water Supply
Snow Depth
Irrigation
Recreation
Tourism
Hydropower
Soils
Crops
Range
Socio-economic
Livestock
Forests Societal Impact
Time/Duration of the event
Drought compared to other natural hazards
• slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”
– drought’s onset and end difficult to determine
– commonality with climate change
Drought– it sneaks up on you!
Drought compared to other natural hazards
• slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”
– drought onset and end difficult to determine
– commonality with climate change
• absence of a universal definition
• impacts are nonstructural and spread over
large areas
• severity and impacts best defined by
multiple indices and indicators
• impacts are complex, affect many people,
and vary on spatial and temporal
timescales, multiple and migrating
epicenters
30 month animation—USDM,2010-2013
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle:
An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management
Crisis Management
If you do what
you’ve always
done, you’ll get
what you’ve
always got.
We MUST
adopt a new
paradigm for
drought
management!
Our Changing Climate
IPCC
Mean Temperature Increase & Impact on
Extreme Temperatures
Shifting Distribution of Summer
Temperature Anomalies
Hansen, NASA’s GISS, 2013
Adapting to Changing Extremes
WMO
Highest Max. Temp.
Highest number of broken National
maximum T°records in 2001-2010
compared to the previous three
decades
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2010
Lowest Min. Temp.
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-00
Fits with IPCC more hot days and
more heat waves
Lowest number of broken National
minimum T° records in 2001-2010
compared to the previous four
decades
2001-10
Highest 24h Precipitation
 Fewer cool nights
The previous two decades recorded
highest number of national 24 hour
precipitation records
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-00
2001-10
Intensification of heavy rainfall
(Source:
WMO country data.
Managing for Climate
Variability
Storms
Impacts of Global Climate
Change:
Increased frequency of
extreme weather events
Floods
Droughts
along with heat waves, snow storms, etc.
The Climate Challenge for Drought
Management
• Increasing mean temperature
• High temp. stress and heat waves/longer
growing seasons
Are
droughts
increasing
in
• Increased evapotranspiration
frequency,
intensity
and
duration?
• Changes in precipitation amount,
distribution and intensity
• Reduced soil moisture
• Changes in groundwater recharge
• Reduced runoff/stream flow resulting from
reduced snowpack/sublimation
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Changes in Societal Vulnerability
Drought impacts are more
complex today as more
economic sectors are affected,
creating more conflicts between
water users, i.e., societal
vulnerability is dramatically
different and changing.
• Agricultural production
• Food security
• Energy
• Transportation
• Tourism/Recreation
• Forest/rangeland fires
• Municipal water
• Water quality/quantity
• Environment
• Ecosystem services
• Health
Natural Catastrophes Worldwide
1980-2012
Number
Number
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
Geophysical events
(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Meteorological events
(Storms, etc.)
© 2013 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass movement)
Source: Munich Re
Natural Catastrophes Worldwide,
1980-2012
Distribution of insured losses to different perils
Insured losses in 2012 US$: 970bn
9%
8% 11%
Extreme weather events
affect the core business of
the insurance industry!
72%
Geophysical events
(Earthquake,
tsunami,
volcanic eruption)
Meteorological
events
(Storms, etc.)
Hydrological
events
(Flood, mass
movement)
Climatological events
(Extreme temp,
drought, forest fire)
Source: Munich Re
300
Natural Disasters in the U.S.
1980-2011
Number of Events, Annual Totals
250
2011 Total
171 Events
200
150
100
60
50
14
92
1980
1982
1984
Geophysical events
(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Meteorological events
(Storm)
2000
2002
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass
movement)
2004
2006
2008
2010
5
Climatological events
(Extreme temperature,
drought, forest fire)
© 2011 Munich Re
31
Drought Disaster Designations
October 10, 2012
$16 billion in crop insurance indemnities
Total drought impacts ~ $35-77 billion
Superstorm Sandy ~ $50 billion
Emergency response has a place in
drought risk management, but it can also
lead to:
• greater vulnerability/decreased
resilience to future drought events
• increased reliance on government and
donor interventions.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Building Societal
Resilience
through National
Drought Policies
and Preparedness
Plans: The Way
Forward
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
EXPOSURE
• Severity/Magnitude
- Intensity/Duration
• Frequency
• Spatial extent
• Trends
- Historical
- Future
• Impacts
• Early warning
Applied Climate Sciences
SOCIAL FACTORS
• Population growth
• Population shifts
• Urbanization
• Technology
• Land use changes
• Environmental
degradation
• Water use trends
• Government
policies
• Environmental
awareness
RISK
School of Natural Resources
EXPOSURE
SOCIAL FACTORS
RISK
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
The Cycle of Disaster Management
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
Reducing Societal Vulnerability
• Improve drought awareness
• Develop/improve monitoring, early warning
and information delivery systems
• Improve decision support tools
• Complete risk assessments of vulnerable
sectors, population groups, regions
• Improve understanding and quantification of
drought impacts vs. mitigation costs
• Develop and implement drought
preparedness plans
• Create national drought policies based on
the principles of risk reduction
Follow-on Actions—HMNDP
• Integrated Drought Management
Programme (IDMP)
– Global Water Partnership/WMO initiative
• Project—Capacity Development to support
National Drought Management Policies
(UN-Water, WMO, UNCCD), Bucharest, July
2013
• Soliciting donor support for HMNDP
declaration recommendations
• Publication of key papers from HMNDP
IDMP Objectives
• At global level, the IDMP will contribute to best
practices related to drought risk management
through:
– Better scientific understanding of, and inputs for, drought
management;
– Improved knowledge base, with better access to
information and products;
– Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction, and early
warning;
– Policy and planning for drought preparedness and
mitigation across sectors; and
– Drought risk reduction and response.
National Drought Policy Goals
 Proactive mitigation and planning
measures, risk management, public
outreach and resource stewardship.
 Greater collaboration to enhance the
national / regional / global observation
networks and information delivery systems
to improve public understanding of, and
preparedness for, drought.
 Incorporation of comprehensive
governmental and private insurance and
financial strategies into drought
preparedness plans.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
National Drought Policy Goals
 Recognition of a safety net of emergency
relief based on sound stewardship of
natural resources and self-help at diverse
governance levels.
 Coordination of drought programmes
and response in an effective, efficient and
customer-oriented manner.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Resources Available
• Expert meeting to develop a
compendium of best practices
on national drought policy
– Promoting standard approaches
to Vulnerability and Impact
Assessments
– Implementing effective Drought
Monitoring and Early Warning
Systems
– Enhancing Preparedness and
Mitigation Actions
– Implementing Emergency
Response and Relief measures
that reinforce National Drought
Policy
– Understanding the Cost of
Inaction.
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
HMNDP Plenary Sessions
• Drought monitoring, early warning and
information systems
• Drought prediction and predictability
• Drought vulnerability and impact
assessment
• Enhancing drought preparedness and
mitigation
• Planning for appropriate response and relief
within the framework of National Drought
Policy
• Constructing a framework for National
Drought Policy: The way forward
Applied Climate Sciences
School of Natural Resources
Takeaway Messages
• Climate is changing—climate state and
climate variability.
• Extreme climate events are increasing in
frequency globally, managing impacts
critically important.
• Time is NOW to change the paradigm from
crisis to drought risk management.
• Time is NOW for all drought-prone nations
to adopt appropriate drought policies that
will reduce the impacts of future drought
episodes through risk-based management.
Thanks for your attention!
Applied Climate Sciences
Contact Information:
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
[email protected]
School of Natural Resources

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