Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases

Report
MUTUAL LEARNING WORKSHOP ON SCENARIOS
CGEE, Brasília (Brazil), 5 December 2012
Prospective Foresight in Brazil:
An overview and cases
Claudio Porto
CEO Macroplan, Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão
Permitida a distribuição e reprodução desde que citada a fonte
Claudio Porto

CEO of Macroplan – Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão
 30 years working on prospective foresight

Macroplan is recognized in the Brazilian marketplace as one of the most
experienced consulting Brazilian companies in prospective studies and strategic
management
 Almost 80 prospective studies produced to date
Contents

The evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil

Five emblematic cases
1. Scenarios of the Brazilian Economy, BNDES (1984-90)
2. Scenarios about the future of the Amazon Region (ELETRONORTE) (1988,
1998)
3. Introduction and Consolidation of the use of Scenarios in Petrobras (1989,
1992)
4. Scenarios in the State of Minas Gerais (2003-2007)
5. Brazil in transition: current landscape and future trends 2011-2022 (2011)

Summary and conclusions
The Evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil -
From the 1970’s to today
 Until the 1970’s: embryos (IDESP and IUPERJ)
 1980’s: emergence (the precursors)
 1990’s: dissemination
 2000 to today: generalization in large companies or institutions
The choice of cases
 Criteria: the relevance of its impacts, using an elegant application of the
idea of the “Greek Triangle” built by Michel Godet (1991)
ANTICIPATION
(Reason)
THE GREEK
TRIANGLE
APPROPRIATION
(Desire)
ACTION
(Accomplishment)
The 1980’s
1980’s - The Brazilian Context
1. External crisis (including the consequences of the oil prices shock in our
economy and default of the Brazilian external debt)
2. Low economic growth (“the lost decade”, average 1.55% /year) and
social crisis (39% of population in poverty in 1989)
3. Hyperinflation (1,973% in 1989)
4. Economy: closed and technologically outdated
5. Politics: transition from a military regimen to democracy.
1º
First Case
BNDES economy scenarios (1984)
»
The National Bank for Economic and Social Development – BNDES is
currently the main financial institution for long-term investments in all
segments of the Brazilian economy. In 2011 the ampount of it’s
disbursements was about US$ 70 billion
»
1984: BNDES implemented a strategic planning process that included the
use of two macroeconomic scenarios:
ADJUSTMENT SCENARIO (THE “OFFICIAL” VISION)
• Scrolling annual external debt
• Economy: continuity of restrictive policies
in accordance with the IMF
ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO
• Confidencial
• External debt renegotiation in the long
term and with better conditions
• Information leak
• Economic policy: resumption of
development
COMPETITIVE INTEGRATION SCENARIO
• Updated industrial structure
• Open and competitive economy
• External debt renegotiation in the long
term and with better conditions
• High repercussion
in society
1º
First Case
BNDES economy scenarios (1984) - Impacts
ANTICIPATION
» The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth
APPROPRIATION
» By the elected President of the Republic (1989), supported by a strong
national desire to overcome recession
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
» Beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy
2º
Second Case (Part one)
The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988)
» ELETRONORTE is a state-owned company
that generates and provides electric power
to the nine states of the Amazon Region
and also provides energy to buyers from
other regions of the country. Total installed
capacity = 9.294,33 megawatts and
transmission systems have over 9.888,02
km of lines.
• AMAZON REGION = 49,29%
BRAZIL´S TOTAL AREA
» Mission: Acting in energy markets in an
integrated, cost-effective and sustainable
way
2º
Second Case (Part one)
The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988)
» Aim: supporting its assessments of demand for electric energy and investment plan.
» Three scenarios of Amazon Region from 1989-2010
INTEGRATION WITH THE
NATIONAL PROJECT
1
FOCUS ON ENDOGENOUS
DEVELOPMENT
2
ECOLOGIC AND CULTURAL
RESTRICTION
3
» Two important contributions of this study
» introduced the embryo of the sustainable development concept  increasing influence
in the company’s decisions
» Introduced the use of scenarios to prospect the market of electrical energy in Brazil
instead of extrapolative forecasts  A pioneering initiative that becomes standard in
the electrical sector in the 1990’s.
The 1990’s
1990’s - The Brazilian Context
1. Stabilization of the economy after the Real Plan in 1994
2. Continuous opening of the Brazilian economy
3. Privatization in several economic sectors, end of monopolies and
increased competition
4. Modernization of public institutions (remarkable: regulation)
5. Increased soundness of the financial system
6. Consolidation of democracy
3º
Third Case
Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992, 1996)
» Petrobras is a publicly traded joint-stock corporation whose main shareholder is the
Government of Brazil. It acts as an energy company in the following sectors:
exploration and production, refinement, marketing and transportation of oil and
natural gas, petrochemicals, distribution of oil, electricity, biofuels and other renewable
energy sources. The company leads the Brazilian oil sector.
» Petrobras Business Plan 2012-2016: investments totaling US$ 236.5 billion (R$ 416,5
billion) - an average of US $ 47,3 billion per year.
» Strategic planning was formally adopted by PETROBRAS in 1989 and based on scenario
analysis.
3º
Third Case
Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)
»
A participative process
»
The scenarios and strategic Options in 1992 (Strategic Plan 1992-
2001)
PETROBRAS’ SCENARIOS
GLOBAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY
1. Trans-nationalization - hegemony of big
private oil companies
STRATEGIC OPTIONS
•
2. Fragmented Cooperation - shared
hegemony in the petroleum industry
Consolidation and strengthening in the
national market
•
Expansion of international operations
NATIONAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY
•
Integration, competitiveness and business
excellence
•
Neoliberal
•
Permanency of the crisis
•
Welfare state
3º
Third Case
Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)
ANTICIPATION
»
Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition
»
Increasing uncertainty and new challenges in the industry
APPROPRIATION
»
Assimilation of scenarios and prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical
staff of the company
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
»
Preparation of the company and its managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly,
increasing competition and higher uncertainty
»
PETROBRAS developed a skilled decision making process when faced with uncertainties. Today, the
construction of scenarios, which started in the company over 23 years ago, is part of their culture and strategic
management process
2º
Second Case (Part two)
The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1998)
» In 1998, ELETRONORTE decided to revisit the 10 years old prospective study
» The prospects of 1989 against the real events of the previous 10 years were evaluated
» Four scenarios were devised for the Amazon Region looking into the following 20 years:
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
MODERATE INTEGRATION
AND BETTER QUALITY
OF LIFE
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
1
2
ECONOMIC GROWTH AT
3
THE EXPENSE OF
STAGNATION AND POVERTY
ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
3
4
2º
Second Case (Part two)
The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) - Impacts
ANTICIPATION
» A systemic view of the main issues and challenges resulting from the economic
exploitation of the Amazon Region
APPROPRIATON
» Relevant contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning the
sustainable development of the Amazon Region.
» Recognizing of the potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
» The search for new sustainable production standards for the Amazon Region
2000’s to
Today
2000’s to Today –
The Brazilian Context
1. Prolonged economic stability
2. Overcoming of external restrictions
3. Increasing social inclusion: “Brazil, a medium class country”
4. Increasing insertion of Brazil into global economy
5. Brazil emerges as an attractive land of economic opportunities
6. New challenges and uncertainties facing the future of the country in the medium
and long terms
4º
Fourth Case
Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER
THAN FRANCE)
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20
MILLION PEOPLE
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG
BRAZILIAN STATES
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
Brazil
Sustained development of domestic
economy
Minas Gerais
WASTE of
opportunities
Minas Gerais
environment
CONQUEST of a
better future
II
I
IV
III
 Creative
 Excluding
DECADENCE and
impoverishment
OVERCOMING
adversities
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
Minas Gerais
environment
 Conservative
 Inefficient
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESS
NETWORK CITIES
 Competitive
 Inclusive
STATE FOR
RESULTS
Domestic economy with
intermittent growth
“To turn Minas
Gerais into the best
state to live in”
• Strategic
Guidelines
• Projects
4º
Fourth Case
Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
Brazil
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER
THAN FRANCE)
Sustained development of
domestic economy
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20
Minas Gerais
MILLION PEOPLE
WASTE of
opportunities
CONQUEST of a
better future
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG
Minas Gerais’
BRAZILIAN
STATES
environment
III
DECADENCE and
impoverishment
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
 Excluding
Brazil
Sustained development of domestic
economy
WASTE of
opportunities
Minas Gerais
IV
Minas Gerais
environment
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
CONQUEST of a
better future
II
I
IV
III
 Creative
DECADENCE and
impoverishment
OVERCOMING
adversities
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
Minas Gerais
environment
 Conservative
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESS
NETWORK CITIES
 Competitive
 Inclusive
STATE FOR
RESULTS
Domestic economy with
intermittent growth
Minas Gerais’
environment
 Creative
 Inefficient
 Excluding
I
 Conservative
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
 Inefficient
II
 Competitive
OVERCOMING
adversities
 Inclusive
• Strategic
“To turn Minas
Guidelines
Gerais into the best
stateeconomy
to live with
in”
Domestic
intermittent growth
• Projects
4º
Fourth Case
Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER
ENVIRONMENTAL
FRANCE)
STHAN
USTAINABILITY
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20
MILLION PEOPLE
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG
BRAZILIAN STATES
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESS
NETWORK CITIES
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
Brazil
Sustained development of domestic
economy
Minas Gerais
WASTE of
opportunities
Minas Gerais
environment
CONQUEST of a
better future
II
I
IV
III
 Creative
 Excluding
DECADENCE and
impoverishment
OVERCOMING
adversities
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESS
NETWORK CITIES
 Competitive
 Inclusive
STATE FOR
RESULTS
Domestic economy with
intermittent growth
“To turn Minas
STATE FOR
Gerais into the best
RESULTS
state to live in”
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
Minas Gerais
environment
 Conservative
 Inefficient
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
• Strategic
Guidelines
• Projects
4º
Fourth Case
Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER
AFTER
DEVELOPMENT
OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS, THE FIRST ONE OF THEM WAS
THANTHE
FRANCE
)
• POPULATION
20
CHOSEN
AS A: NEARLY
REFERENCE
FOR THE CREATION OF THE VISION OF THE FUTURE FOR
MILLION PEOPLE
MINAS GERAIS OVER A PERIOD OF 20 YEARS:
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG
BRAZILIAN STATES
“TO TURN MINAS GERAIS INTO THE BEST STATE TO LIVE IN”
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
Brazil
Sustained development of domestic
economy
Minas Gerais
WASTE of
opportunities
Minas Gerais
environment
CONQUEST of a
better future
II
I
IV
III
 Creative
 Excluding
DECADENCE and
impoverishment
OVERCOMING
adversities
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
Minas Gerais
environment
 Conservative
 Inefficient
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESS
NETWORK CITIES
 Competitive
 Inclusive
STATE FOR
RESULTS
Domestic economy with
intermittent growth
“To turn Minas
Gerais into the best
state to live in”
• Strategic
Guidelines
• Projects
4º
Fourth Case
Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
THE VISION WAS THEN SPLIT INTO:
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER
THAN FRANCE)
STRATEGIC
GUIDELINES
• •POPULATION
: NEARLY
20
MILLION PEOPLE
• •ECONOMY
: THIRD AMONG
PORTFOLIO
OF STRUCTURING AND LEVERAGING PROJECTS FOR THE
BRAZILIAN STATES
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATE
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
Brazil
Sustained development of domestic
economy
Minas Gerais
WASTE of
opportunities
Minas Gerais
environment
CONQUEST of a
better future
II
I
IV
III
 Creative
 Excluding
DECADENCE and
impoverishment
OVERCOMING
adversities
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
Minas Gerais
environment
 Conservative
 Inefficient
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESS
NETWORK CITIES
 Competitive
 Inclusive
STATE FOR
RESULTS
Domestic economy with
intermittent growth
“To turn Minas
Gerais into the best
state to live in”
• Strategic
Guidelines
• Projects
4º
Fourth Case
Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
ANTICIPATION
»
The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its
government
APPROPRIATION
»
Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios
»
Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher
efficiency
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
»
Public policies aligned with the scenarios
»
“The shock of management” in state government
Summary and
Conclusions
Anticipation
Appropriation
Action
BNDES
(1984)
ELETRONORTE
(1988, 1998)
The possibility of a new
cycle of economic growth
The anticipation of
political, economic, and
environmental issues
resulting from the
economic exploitation of
the Amazon Region
By the elected President
(1989)
A strong national desire to
overcome recession
Contribution to a gradual
formation of a political
convergence concerning
Amazon region’s biggest
challenge.
The potential of economic
exploitation of biodiversity
The beginning of the
openness of the Brazilian
economy
The search for new
production standards on
sustainable base
PETROBRAS
(1989, 1992, 1996)
Loss of monopoly and
emergence of competition
Increasing uncertainty
Assimilation of prospective
methods by a large portion
of the senior management
and technical staff of the
company
Preparation of managers
and professionals to deal
successfully with the end
of monopoly, competition
and higher uncertainty
MINAS GERAIS
(2003-2023)
The threat of losing many
opportunities unless
making severe adjustments
in the state and its
government
Choice of strategies aligned
with the scenarios
Realization of the urgent
need for modernization of
the state government
toward higher efficiency
Public policies aligned with
the scenarios
“The shock of
management” in state
government
Conclusions

The use and dissemination of prospective foresight in Brazil made significant progress
during the last 30 years.

Unfortunately, we are still missing a long term prospective and strategic view for the
country. We – society, state, companies – are excessively focused on short term tactic
questions.

However, there has been an increasing demand for a long term view from new
leaderships. Our current development stage itself requires such view.

I am, therefore, optimistic: this is likely the decade when Brazil – as a nation and a
society – will pursue and build a long term vision of development.

And all of us, with the methods and tools of prospective foresight , will be able to
make relevant contributions to this project.
Thank you.
cporto@macroplan.com.br
References
Remarkable Prospective Projects
supported by Macroplan
12.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Cenários do ambiente de atuação das micro e pequenas
empresas do Rio de Janeiro 2012-2013 (2012)
Análise de tendências de longo prazo e elaboração do
Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado horizonte
2030 (2011)
Quatro cenários da cidade de Belo Horizonte 2010-2030
(2009)
Cenários do Ambiente de Atuação do do Sistema
Eletrobras 2020 (2010)
Quatro Cenários Econômicos para o Brasil 2008-2014
Cenários Exploratórios do Rio de Janeiro no Horizonte
2007-2027 (2007)
Cenários Exploratórios de Minas Gerais no Horizonte
2007-2023 (2007)
Cenários do ambiente de atuação das organizações
públicas de PD&I do Agronegócio no Horizonte 2023
(Embrapa, 2007)
Três Cenários para o Desenvolvimento do Estado do
Espírito Santo (2006)
“O Ensino Superior no Mundo e no Brasil –
Condicionantes, Tendências e Cenários para o Horizonte
2003-2025” (2003)
Cenários de Desenvolvimento para a elaboração do
Plano Estratégico do Sistema Petrobras – 2004-2015
(2003 – 2004)
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Construção de Cenários para o Setor Energético e o segmento
de Óleo e Gás 2002-2010 e elaboração da Visão de Futuro do
Projeto Tendências Tecnológicas para o CTPETRO – Fundo
Setorial do Petróleo (Mar-Jul, 2002).
Atualização dos Cenários Sócio-Econômicos e Energéticos da
Amazônia para o Horizonte 1998/2020 - ELETRONORTE (Out,
2000 - Abril, 2001)
Elaboração dos cenários focalizados no mercado de
distribuição de combustíveis no Brasil – horizonte 2002/2006
(2001)
Mapeamento das Incertezas e Construção dos Cenários do
Mercado de Energia Elétrica – Horizonte 2001-2011 ( 2001).
Cenários da Educação a Distância no Brasil – Horizonte 2010;
como etapa integrante do processo de planejamento
estratégico do desenvolvimento da Educação à Distância do
SENAC São Paulo para o horizonte 2000-2005 (Fev-Abril 2000)
Cenários do setor de Telecomunicações no Brasil no Horizonte
1996/2010 para a EMBRATEL (1996)
Consultoria metodológica à Secretaria de Assuntos
Estratégicos da Presidência da República na construção de
Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil no Horizonte 2020 (Jan - Jun,
1996)
Consultoria à elaboração de análise prospectiva e Cenários de
Educação Profissional e do ambiente de atuação do SENAI –
Horizonte 1995-2010 ( 1995)
Cenários para o Mato Grosso do Sul no horizonte 1995-2010
(Mar-Set, 1995)
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