Prof Fasli Jalal

Report
TANTANGAN PENYIAPAN SDM
DALAM MENDUKUNG MP3EI
FASLI JALAL
Seminar Internasional APTEKINDO
Temu Karya XVII FT/FPTK/FKT se Indonesia,
Makassar, 4 Mei 2012
Posisi 2011
PREDIKSI The Economist:
Posisi Indonesia
sekarang dimana?
The Economist published its annual series
called The World in 2011.
the Economist was bullish on Indonesia. It
predicted that, with 245 million people in
2011, Indonesia’s GDP will reach around
US$ 806 billion,
resulting in a GDP per capita of $ 3,280.
By this figure, Indonesia’s GDP is predicted
to exceed those of Turkey and the
Netherlands, making Indonesia the
16th largest economic power in
the world.
Indonesia is forecast to have 6% per year
GDP growth in 2011 and 2012.
Posisi 2008
PDB Negara 1-20, PDB per Kapita dan Populasi
No
2050
2045
2030
2025
2014
2011
The Economist 2011
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Negara
USA
Japan
China
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Rusia
Spain
Brazil
Canada
India
Mexico
Australia
South Korea
Netherlands
Turkey
Poland
Indonesia
Belgium
PDB $bn
14.093
4.911
4.327
3.649
$bn 26.679 2.857
2.674
2.303
$bn 15 17.5
1.679
$bn 6.460 1.604
1.575
$bn 4 –
1.501
4.5
1.159
1.088
$bn 1.206
1.015
929
$bn 806
871
735
528
511
504
Population PDB per
million
kapita $
308,8
127,9
1.336,20
82,5
61,9
61
58,9
141,8
44,6
194,2
33,2
1.186,20
107,8
21
48,4
16,5
75,8
38
234,3
10,5
45.638
38.397
3.238
44.230
46.155
43.836
39.100
11.841
35.964
8.110
45.211
977
10.093
48.333
19.194
52.788
9.697
13.895
2.181
48.000
$ 78.478
$ 44.500
– 49.000
$ 20.600
$ 14.250
– 15.500
$ 4.803
$ 3.280
6 Koridor Ekonomi Indonesia
Slide 4
Strategi 2 MP3EI
Konektivitas
22 Kegiatan Ekonomi Utama
Perlu
peningkatan
Kapasitas
Inovasi dan
Teknologi
Penyiapan SDM
Untuk MP3EI
SDM 22 Kegiatan Ekonomi
Peralatan
Transportasi
Pariwisata
Telematika
Jabodetabek
Area
KSN
Selat
Sunda
Perkapalan
Alutsista
Pertanian
Pangan
Perikanan
Besi
Baja
Makanan
Minuman
Perkayuan
Peternakan
Kakao
Karet
Kelapa
Sawit
Batubara
Tekstil
Bauksit
Tembaga
Nikel
Minyak
dan Gas
Perlu SDM dari berbagai
disiplin serta tingkat
pendidikan dan pelatihan
untuk mendukung usaha
pariwisata, konstruksi,
pertanian, pertambangan
dan industri
Perlu SDM dari berbagai
disiplin serta tingkat
pendidikan dan pelatihan
untuk pembangunan
infrastruktur
SDM Kegiatan Konektivitas
SDM Birokrasi
SDM Pendidik,Peneliti,Perekayasa & IPTEK
Pengajar
PERTI
Pengajar
POLI
Pengajar
SMK
Pengajar
AK
Perekayasa
Peneliti
Di 6 Koridor Ekonomi
Insinyur
Pengajar
KURSUS
Perlu mengetahui
kebutuhan dari
setiap kegiatan di 6
Koridor Ekonomi
Perlu SDM dari berbagai
disiplin untuk menjadi
pendidik dan peneliti
Pemetaan
Kebutuhan SDM
Pasokan
Kebutuhan
(MP3EI): 22 Kegiatan
Ekonomi + Konektivitas
Tingkat
Pendidikan
Pendidikan &
Kompetensi
Kawasan Investasi
Sebaran Lokasi
Pendidikan
Pendidikan
Akreditasi
Penghasil
Pendidikan
Angkatan
Kerja
Standar Kualitas
Lulusan
Pendidikan
Populasi Lulusan
Pendidikan
Pertumbuhan
Lulusan
Pendidikan
Seluruh KPI Prioritas
Sektor
Nilai Investasi
+Akademi Komunitas
+Kursus
+SMK
Sebaran Lokasi
Industri
SDM Ideal
Sertifikasi Keahlian
Penuhi
Kebutuhan & Ketrampilan
Investasi:
Jumlah SDM Sesuai
Teknologi
Perkembangan
Pertumbuhan
Situasi Sosial
Setempat
A. Pemetaan
SDM
B. Pemetaan
Iptek
C. Penguatan
Pendidikan
D. Penguatan
Iptek
D. Penguatan
Pusat Kajian
F. Jadwal &
Organisasi
Kebutuhan Dan Ketersediaan SDM Konektivitas:
Sisi Pasokan
Sisi Permintaan
Pendidikan &
Kompetensi
Tingkat Pendidikan
Sebaran Lokasi
Pendidikan
Akreditasi
Pendidikan
Standar Kualitas
Lulusan Pendidikan
Populasi Lulusan
Pendidikan
Pertumbuhan
Lulusan Pendidikan
Infrastruktur Lain
Jalan Pelabuhan Power Bandara
& Energi
Lulusan
Pendidikan
Sebagai
Angkatan
Kerja
Rel
Utilitas Telematika Lain
Kereta
Air
Lain
Sdm Ideal
Penuhi
Kebutuhan
Pembangunan
Konektivitas:
6 Koridor Ekonomi
Jenis & Rentang
Konektivitas
Sertifikasi Keahlian
& Ketrampilan
Perkembangan
Teknologi
Perkembangan
Peralatan
Peningkatan
Volume
A. Pemetaan
SDM
B. Pemetaan
Iptek
C. Penguatan
Pendidikan
D. Penguatan
Iptek
D. Penguatan
Pusat Kajian
F. Jadwal &
Organisasi
Sumber Informasi Pemetaan Kebutuhan
LULUSAN
BERPENDIDIKAN
SMK
D I, D II, D III
S 1, S2, S3
Non Formal
JUM- PROFESI BER- JUM- PROFESI
LAH SERTIFIKAT LAH PERISET
T. Terampil
T. Ahli: Ir
JUMLAH
Periset
Data/informasi
dari MP3EI
Badan
Pengembangan
SDM,
Kementerian/
LPNK
Asosiasi
Perusahaan,
Industri,
Asosiasi
Pengusaha
Asosiasi Profesi
Keahlian,
Asosiasi Profesi
Keterampilan
Pemerintah
Daerah,
Koordinasi Tiap
Koridor
Data dari sumber-sumber lain
Pembandingan
dengan:
Negara
berpertumbuhan tinggi
A. Pemetaan
SDM
B. Pemetaan
Iptek
C. Penguatan
Pendidikan
D. Penguatan
Iptek
D. Penguatan
Pusat Kajian
F. Jadwal &
Organisasi
Pemetaan Penyediaan SDM
KE
SUMATERA
KE
JAWA
KE
KALIMANTAN
KE
SULAWESI
KE
BALI - NUSA
TENGGARA
KE
PAPUAMALUKU
KONEKTIVITAS
FASILITAS DAN JUMLAH LULUSAN DI KORIDOR
INSTITUSI
PENDIDIKAN
SD
SMP
SMK
SMA
POLITEKNIK
UNIVERSITAS
LUAR SEKOLAH
LOKASI,
LULUSAN PENDIDIKAN
JUMLAH ,
KAPASITAS SEBAGAI ANGKATAN
KERJA
/TAHUN
Ijazah SMK
Ijazah SMA
D I, D II, D III, D IV
S 1, S2, S3
JUM KEPROFESIAN
-LAH BERSERTIFIKAT
T. Terampil
Tenaga Ahli: Ir
JUM
JUM
-LAH PERISET IPTEK -LAH
Tenaga Periset
Posisi SDM 2010
TINGKAT PENDIDIKAN
INDONESIA
Universitas
TINGGI
Diploma
I,II,III
4.60%
3.20%
1.80%
164%
7.20%
2.70%
2.20%
1.60%
SMK
SMP
DASAR
Menengah
70.40%
Dasar
Dari 7,2%
menjadi
19% di
tahun 2025
2006
7.80%
6.20%
5.50%
96%
2001
MALAYSIA
14.60%
12.70%
10.30%
20.30%
56.30%
24.30%
18.90%
20.20%
17.70%
Tinggi
Menengah
Dasar
OECD
51.50%
55.50%
63.00%
SD atau tidak
tamat SD
0.00%
22.40%
2010
MENENGAH
SMA
Tinggi
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
40.30%
39.30%
20.40%
Tinggi
Menenga
h
Dari 22,4%
menjadi
44% di
tahun 2025
A. Pemetaan
SDM
B. Pemetaan
Iptek
C. Penguatan
Pendidikan
D. Penguatan
Iptek
D. Penguatan
Pusat Kajian
F. Jadwal &
Organisasi
Pemenuhan Peningkatan Pendidikan Tenaga Menengah
2010
2015
7.20%
22.40%
70.40%
1
Tinggi
9.00%
Menengah
4
19.00%
36.00%
63.00%
3
2025
14.00%
28.00%
Dasar
Pendidikan
kecakapan hidup
untuk melatih
masyarakat agar
dapat bekerja
(pekerja)
2020
Meningkatkan
jumlah siswa SMK
pada 22 bidang
kegiatan ekonomi
utama di setiap
koridor
50.00%
2
Meningkatkan
jumlah tenaga
pengajar SMK 22
bidang kegiatan
ekonomi utama di
setiap koridor
Pendidikan
kewirausahaan
masyarakat agar
mampu merintis
usaha mandiri
(wirausaha)
Diolah dari: Encyclopedia of Nations, http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/ diakses Januari 2011
44.00%
35.00%
1. Trends
The 20% meant rapid increase in spending in 2008-2009,
and flat budget projected in real terms
Two main consequences:
• Budget will probably remain around 20%
• The projected budget growth is flat in real terms
• The 20 percent rule was first met in 2009
• Spending doubled in real terms since 2001
• Most of the increase happened in 2009
Total Public Spending on Education
Percent
IDR trillion
350
22.5
280
16.4
210
15.0
16.3
15.9
14.4 14.5 14.5
25350
21.6
Projections based on total government budget
And 20 % rule
IDR trillion
300
20
21.66
20.85 19.00 19.87 19.08 19.68
15.60
250
15
200
11.4
150
140
10
100
70
5
50
0
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*2011**
0
Real spending, 2009 prices (LHS)
Nominal spending (LHS)
% total state expenditure
% total state expenditure (without SN own revenues)
Source: MoF, SIKD, RENSTRA
Notes: Projected budget for sub-national government in 2010. Total state expenditure
include central budget and transfers to regions.
2010*
2011*
Real spending, 2009 prices
2012*
2013 (R)
Nominal spending
Source: MoF and World Bank projections
2014 (R)
1. Trends
Big progress in coverage
Still low in ECD, senior secondary and higher education
Gross Enrollment Rate
120%
Progress:
• Universal coverage of SD
• Rapid increase in ECED
• Big increase in secondary and
higher education
100%
80%
60%
Challenges:
• Still low in ECD, especially in some
40%
20%
provinces
0%
ECED
2001
2002
SD
2003
SMP
2004
2005
Source: Own calculations using Susenas
SMU
2006
Higher ED
2007
2009
• Still low access in higher
education
1. Trends
Enrollment rate in secondary has caught up with neighbors,
the bigger challenges are tertiary and ECD
Korea, Rep.
Philippines
Tertiary
Indonesia
Secondary
ECD
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Brazil
Mexico
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Gross enrollment rate
100.0
Source: World Bank, Edstats, last year available
Note: Data for 2009 for all except Malaysia, Philippines, Argentina and Brazil (2008)
120.0
Improved equity: big progress on coverage for the poor,
but still high drop-out in SMU
1. Trends
• The poor are enrolling earlier and staying longer in school
• Share enrolled by age 6 went up from 50% to 75%
• Share still enrolled at age 15 increased from 60% to 75%
• After age 15 the share drops dramatically (only 30% by age 18)
• There was no improvement for the richer quintile
Richest Quintile
120%
2006
100%
2010
80%
120%
2006
100%
2010
80%
Share in School
Share in School
Poorest Quintile
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
SD
0%
6
7
8
SMP
SMU
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
SD
0%
6
7
Source: Own calculations using Susenas
8
9
SMP
SMU
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
2. Finding
Resources
Most of the budget is spent on basic education, secondary and
higher education get a low share of the budget
• A large share of additional resources from 20%
went to basic education
Trillions
• Higher Education also got a good share
• The importance of basic education in the
budget will be reduced as Indonesia
develops
180
2008
160
2009
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
ECD
Basic
SMU
Universities
Other
Source: Own calculations using
Note: Teacher salaries reclassified by program using teacher numbers
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank (2008 or
latest year available)
2. Finding
Resources
About ¼ of the budget flows directly to schools,
little in scholarships
Share of national budget by direct recipient
Civil Servants
6
Unspecified
(subnational)
12
BOS, 9
Schools
26
Infrastructure &
rehabilitation, 9
Teachers
55
Students
1
Source: Own calculations using APBDN (2009) and SKID (2009)
Note: *Civil servants exclude MoNE and MoRA staff
Capacity building,
4
Admin &
Management, 3
Others, 0
2. Finding
Resources
Additional resources from 20% rule went mainly to salaries,
teachers certification and higher education
Average share of total state budget
Share of the state budget by destination
Average
22%
25.00
22.5
Average 16%
21.6
15.00
% of Total State Budget
20.00
16.3
18
16.4
14.5
10.00
5.00
16
1.8
14
2
12
10
Teacher
certification
0.7
0.6
8
6
University
program
11
Salaries to
teachers*
8.5
4
BOS
2
0
0.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
% total state expenditure
2010*
Source: own calculations using SKID, Ministry of Finance
1.6
1.9
2006-08
2009-10
Source: own calculations using SKID, Ministry of Finance
Note: Included only categories of spending that
increased significantly after 20% rule was met
2. Finding
Resources
Number of teachers increased a faster pace than students
at all levels of education
Growth in Number of Teachers by Level
Growth in Number of Students by Level
2.00
2.00
1.80
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.40
1.40
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.80
2004
2005
TK
2006
2007
2008
SD
SMP
2009
2010
SMU
0.80
Source: Ministry of Education and Culture
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
TK
SD
SMP
SMU
2010
2. Finding
Resources
At the current levels, STR is not correlated with learning
if class size is below maximum of 32
• In schools with low STR, increasing STR
should not have a negative effect on
learning
• STR in Indonesia has been going down in
the last decade
(mean) resmtk_bkts
100
100
24
(mean) resmtk_bkts
Student
Ratio
PNSTeacher
Salary per
student
Student
Teacher Student
Ratio
The relationship
between
Teacher
Ratio and learning is not significant
23
80
80
22
17
14
40
16
14
13
14
15
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Primary
Junior
Secondary
Senior5,000,000
Secondary
Student Teacher Ratio
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
10
20
12
20
12
17
Score
Bahasa40Indonesia60
60
18
(mean) resmtk_bkts
19
20
0
10
World Bank - RAND School Based Management
Survey,
2010
Source: World
Bank
School
Source: Own calculations using MoEC
Survey, 2010
20
30
Based Management
2. Finding
Resources
Student teacher ratio is the main driver for differences
in spending across schools
• Teacher redistribution addresses
efficiency and equity
20
30
• Teacher distribution has the largest
effect on equity across schools
Increasing 5 students per teacher
reduces spending by 1/3
0
0
10
10
20
30
Student Teacher Ratio
40
40
50
50
TheSpending
relationshipby
between
Student
TeacherRatio
Ratio and Spending by Student Teacher Ratio
Student
Teacher
spending per
student
is very strong
PNS
Salaries
Budget excluding PNS Salary
0
1
2
3
4
Budget per Student in Rp
5
0
1
2
3
Budget per Student in Rp
Source: World Bank School
Survey,
2010 Management Survey, 2010
WorldBased
BankManagement
- RAND School
Based
4
2. Finding
Resources
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
JAWA TIMUR
JAWA BARAT
JAWA TENGAH
RIAU
SUMATERA UTARA
SUMATERA SELATAN
LAMPUNG
SULAWESI SELATAN
KALIMANTAN BARAT
NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR
SUMATERA BARAT
KALIMANTAN TENGAH
KALIMANTAN TIMUR
NANGGROE ACEH DARUSSALAM
SULAWESI TENGGARA
BANTEN
MALUKU
NUSA TENGGARA BARAT
PAPUA
KALIMANTAN SELATAN
DKI JAKARTA
DI YOGYAKARTA
JAMBI
BENGKULU
SULAWESI TENGAH
SULAWESI UTARA
BALI
SULAWESI BARAT
MALUKU UTARA
PAPUA BARAT
GORONTALO
KEPULAUAN RIAU
BANGKA BELITUNG
•
Preliminary calculations suggest the magnitude of the reallocation is very large, mostly within
districts but also across districts
But these are using 2008 data, and NOT including non-PNS and not including retiring teachers
number of class based PNS teachers to redeploy based on minimum service
standards
•
The magnitude of the redistribution is vast,
existing policies need coordination and expansion
no. of existing teachers to move within districts
no. of existing teachers to move between districts in same province
Source: Own calculations using NUPTK and MoEC data, 2008
Postur Anggaran Pendidikan Tahun 2011 dan 2012
Komponen Anggaran Pendidikan
A Belanja Pemerintah Pusat
1 Kementerian Pendidikan Nasional
2 Kementerian Agama
3 18 K/L lainnya
Bagian Anggaran Bendahara Umum Negara (999)
B Transfer ke Daerah
1 DBH Migas untuk pendidikan
2 DAK Pendidikan
3 Anggaran Pendidikan dan DAU
a. Non gaji
b. Gaji
4 Tambahan Penghasilan Guru PNSD
5 Tambahan DAU untuk Tunjangan Profesi Guru
6 Dana OTSUS untuk Pendidikan
7 Dana Insentif Daerah
8 Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS)
9 Dana Infrastruktur Pendidikan
C Dana Pengembangan Pendidikan Nasional
Total Anggaran Fungsi Pendidikan
TOTAL BELANJA NEGARA
2011
UU APBN
UU APBNP
2012
PAGU
ANGGARAN
99.194,0
57.817,9
31.133,4
6.062,6
4.180,2
186.371,8
799,4
10.041,3
89.744,3
55.582,1
27.263,2
6.899,0
105.356,3
67.344,1
30.363,2
7.649,0
158.234,1
763,0
10.041,3
158.966,5
882,3
10.041,3
11.276,6
93.013,1
3.696,2
18.537,7
2.706,4
1.387,8
16.812,0
10.858,6
103.016,9
2.898,9
30.539,8
3.234,3
1.387,8
23.594,8
1.000,0
11.276,6
93.013,1
3.696,1
18.537,7
2.706,4
1.387,8
16.812,0
613,0
2.617,7
248.978,4
(20,25%)
1.229.558,5
266.940,50
(20,21)
1.320.751,3
286.565,8
(20,20%)
38
1.418.497,7
1.000,0

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