Dilain sisi, Industri Hulu Migas semakin mengalami dinamika dan

Report
SPECIAL TASK FORCE FOR UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS
BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
(SKK MIGAS)
Indonesia Upstream Natural Gas Policy & LNG Outlook
Widhyawan Prawiraatmadja
Deputy Chairman for Commercial Management
2nd LNG Producer – Consumer Conference
Tokyo, 9 September 2013
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
Future upstream oil and gas in Indonesia will be dominated with natural
gas production, as exploration results tend to be more of “gas prone”
Starting 2002, Upstream energy in Indonesia is
dominated by gas and this trend will continue in the
future
Dominated
By OIL
Peak 1977
The major reason of gas dominance is due to the Oil
Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) is lower than 100%
Dominated
By GAS
Peak 1995
GAS
OIL
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
2
While exports are being maintained, most of additional gas supply now
goes the domestic market; as this trends continue, new gas projects will
also need to cater domestic consumers as well as exports
5,000
4,000
3,606
3,413
3,550
3,631
3,267
4,078
3,379
4,336
3,323
3,681
2,913
2,527
3,775
3,820
2,341
1,513
4,008
4,202
4,416
1,466
1,000
1,480
2,000
4,397
BBTUD
3,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Export
Notes:
*) Outlook based on realization per April 2013
2008
Domestic
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
*
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
3
The gap between gas supply in the Eastern part of Indonesia and gas
demand in the Western part of Indonesia drives the need of gas
infrastructure development – hence domestic use of LNG
2.30
0.59
Central
Java
Current Projects,
2013
TIUNG BIRU JAMBARAN
CENDANA
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
4
In the near future, upstream oil and gas new projects will be dominated by
gas – the large ones are in the form of LNG
Major ongoing upstream project
Upcoming New Oil and Gas Projects
MBOEPD
100
75
50
25
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Banyu Urip
Blok A
IDD-Bangka
IDD-Gendalo
IDD Gehem
Tangguh Train 3
Handil Ph 4
YY
MDA-MBH
Jam-TBR
Abadi
Peciko-7C
South MHK
Jangkrik
UL
Bukit Tua
Jangkrik NE
Legend:
Kepodang
Ande-Ande Lumut
Gas
Area MTD
Oil
Senoro
Musi Timur
GG
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information
consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
5
Indonesia LNG Outlook
Allocation of Indonesia LNG
Uncommitted LNG Supply is prioritized to
fulfill the unallocated demand for domestic
purposes as some domestic FSU/FSRUs has
not had allocated LNG yet
Estimate allocation for uncommitted LNG supply
Uncommitted Supply
Free uncommitted
supply
Existing Commitment
Domestic Commitment
Prioritized for
domestic
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
6
End Remarks (1)
• Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to continue albeit at lower
rates than projected – amidst the concern of the widening current
account deficit that the country is now facing. Even at the slower
rates, the growth will have to be fueled by energy resources, including
natural gas.
• Even though there will be more natural gas projects, it is apparent that
domestic consumption has to be prioritized at the expense of less
exports. For this, the country will have to develop more natural gas
infrastructure, including LNG receiving facilities. Nonetheless,
Indonesia will continue its commitments to its traditional LNG buyers,
and new projects economics are still supported by some export
volumes
• SKK Migas will have to make sure that the oil and gas activities – from
exploration to oil and gas monetization – are giving the utmost benefit
to the country while giving fair returns to the investors
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
7
End Remarks (2)
• In doing its job, SKK Migas will continuously improve its
governance and treats integrity as the values that we have to
seriously uphold. We treat the oil and gas business activities not
as an extractive industry per se but to generate multiplier effect
to the national economy: i.e., intended for “Pro Growth,” “Pro
Job,” and “Pro Environment” while enhancing the local content
in all project development, as well as in empowering PERTAMINA
as the national oil company
• Last but not least, as strategic commodities, oil and gas continue
to be intertwined with socio-political issues; the upcoming
general and presidential election in 2014 is no exception. It is
important that the government addresses the challenges in
maintaining the investment climate.
©2013 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for 17th Asian Oil and Gas Conference’ purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
8
SPECIAL TASK FORCE FOR UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS
BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
(SKK Migas)
HEAD OFFICE
Wisma Mulia LG, 21, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40
Jalan Jenderal Gatot Subroto Kav. 42, Jakarta 12710, INDONESIA
PO BOX 4775
Telephone : +62 21 2924 1607
Facsimile : +62 21 2924 9999
9

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