Voters - FastTrackPoll.info

Report
Voters’ View of
Fast-Track Authority for the
Trans-Pacific-Partnership Pact
EMBARGOED UNTIL 2:30 PM ET, WED, JAN 29
National survey among 816 US registered voters
January 14-18, 2014
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
Methodology
 Survey among 816 US registered voters nationwide
 Conducted by telephone (72% landline, 28% cell),
January 14 to 18, 2014
 Margin of error = ±3.5 percentage points among all
voters, higher among subgroups
 Sample includes 37% Democrats, 28% independents,
35% Republicans
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
2
Concern about Free Trade Agreements Has
Grown over Time
Perceived Impact of Free Trade Agreements between the United States and Foreign Countries
Have helped the United States
Have hurt the United States
By 62% to 19%, voters believe that
free trade agreements cost the United
States jobs rather than create them.
53%
46%
45%
39%
35%
28%
32%
30%
22%
17%
Oct 1999*
Dec 1999*
Mar 2007*
Sept 2010*
Jan 2014
* Hart-McInturff for NBC NEWS/The Wall Street Journal
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
3
Voters’ Priorities for Trade Deals Align with TPP
Opponents, Not Supporters
Two Most Important Goals for US Trade Agreements with other Countries
All voters
Preventing US jobs
moving overseas
Preventing unfair
competition that lowers
US workers’ wages
Ensuring safety of
imported products/foods
49%
25%
22%
Preventing harm to
environment
Opening foreign markets
to US exports
Protecting patents/
copyrights of US
companies
Lowering prices for US
consumers
17%
15%
14%
12%
Jobs
Wages
Food safety
Environment
Exports
IP
Lower prices
Democrats
45%
25%
23%
26%
15%
10%
14%
Independents
47%
25%
22%
16%
14%
12%
14%
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
Republicans
55%
23%
20%
8%
15%
21%
10%
4
Voters Oppose Fast-Track Authority by More
than Two to One
As you may know, the Obama administration is now negotiating a new free trade agreement
with 12 Pacific nations called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Congress will soon decide whether
to give the president "fast-track" authority for these negotiations, which would mean that
once the administration's negotiations are completed, Congress must take an up-or-down
vote on the agreement as a whole, and could not make any amendments or changes in the
agreement. Do you favor . . . or oppose giving the president fast-track authority for TPP?
62%
28%
Strongly
43%
10%
Strongly
12%
Favor
Oppose
Not sure
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
5
Initial Opposition to Fast Track Is Widespread
Do you favor . . . or oppose giving the president fast-track authority for TPP?
Favor
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
All voters
28%
62%
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
52%
20%
8%
35%
66%
87%
Age 18 to 34
Age 35 to 49
Age 50 to 64
Age 65/over
31%
28%
28%
26%
51%
64%
67%
65%
Democrats:
Liberal
Moderate/conservative
61%
45%
27%
43%
Income:
Under $50K
$50K to $100K
Over $100K
30%
28%
29%
60%
64%
65%
Republicans:
Conservative
Liberal/moderate
6%
12%
89%
85%
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
33%
27%
24%
30%
58%
63%
64%
61%
2014 Vote for Congress:
Democrat
Republican
Undecided
53%
8%
19%
34%
88%
67%
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
6
Prior to Hearing Debate, Voters Have Mixed
Expectations for Pacific Trade Deal
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is a free trade agreement being negotiated with 12 other
Pacific nations, including Australia, Japan, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. What impact
do you think this kind of trade deal will have on America?
Very negative impact
13%
Somewhat negative impact
24%
Very positive impact
7%
37%
NEGATIVE
46%
POSITIVE
Somewhat positive impact
39%
17%
Both (3%)/not sure
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
7
On Fast-Track Process, Opponents’ Case is More
Compelling to Voters
Which comes closer to your view of giving the president fast-track negotiating authority?
Congress should approve fast-track authority, as it has several times before,
because it's impossible to negotiate a deal among 12 nations if each country's
legislature can amend the agreement. Fast-track authority allows the president to
negotiate agreements while preserving Congress's crucial role in reviewing and
ratifying agreements, just as the Constitution calls for.
Much more
14%
27%
Fast-track authority has been denied before, and should be denied now because
it would give the President too much power by forcing Congress to make a take-it-orleave-it decision on a 29-chapter, 1,000-page agreement. Congress should meet its
responsibility, review the agreement carefully, and make sure it is in the best interests
of American workers and consumers. It's more important to do trade deals right than
fast.
Agree much more
44%
68%
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
8
Simulating the Coming Debate over Fast Track
and the TPP Deal
 All respondents heard seven reasons to support fast track and
seven reasons to oppose it, in randomized sequence. (Half heard
supporters’ arguments first, half heard opponents’ arguments first.)
 Half the respondents then assessed the likely impact of the trade
deal on jobs, the environment, and other relevant factors.
 The other half identified whom they believe would be helped and
hurt by the trade deal.
 All respondents were then asked their overall opinion on fast track a
second time to provide an informed measure of public support.
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
9
Voters’ Evaluation of Reasons to Support Fast
Track for TPP
Very convincing reason to give president fast-track negotiating authority for TPP
Free trade is good for US
economy: 38 million jobs,
1/3 of agriculture sales
Reduce barriers to US
products, boost exports,
create 100Ks jobs
Protect US intellectual
property (74% of US exports,
supports 55 million jobs)
If US doesn’t China will,
taking business from US
firms and dominating Asia
Half the growth in world
economy in next 5 years will
come from Asia-Pacific area
Would eliminate lots of unfair
barriers to US exports, level
playing field for US business
More choices for US
consumers, lower prices
Strengthens role of Congress
in trade policy
49%
29%
44%
27%
42%
22%
41%
27%
22%
39%
21%
39%
18%
17%
Fairly convincing reason
34%
31%
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
10
Voters’ Evaluation of Reasons to Oppose Fast
Track for TPP
Very convincing reason to oppose giving president fast-track authority for TPP
Gives president too much
power; Congress responsibility
Fairly convincing reason
69%
56%
TPP countries pay little
($.28/hr.), unfair for US workers
51%
66%
Expands food imports: health
threats, FDA inspects only 2%
51%
66%
NAFTA-like: $8 trillion deficit,
millions of lost jobs
Secret agreement, Congress
must approve without seeing
53%
41%
Worsen US trade deficit,
cost 130,000 US jobs
Undermine US sovereignty:
fgn. corps challenge US laws
58%
47%
Pharma increase prices, AARP
says will increase seniors’ costs
Foreign corps can attack US
enviro and public health laws
62%
49%
52%
38%
50%
34%
29%
44%
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
11
After Debate, Voters Believe TPP Will Have
Negative Impact On Jobs And Wages
TPP will make things better in this area
TPP will make things worse
30%
-22
American Jobs
Prices American
Consumers Pay
Better
43%
Worse
36%
52%
21%
American wages and
salaries
56%
-35
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
12
Voters Also Expect Environment and Consumer
Safety To Be Undermined By TPP
TPP will make things better in this area
TPP will make things worse
18%
-30
Environment
48%
Safety of imported
food
18%
63%
-45
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
13
Voters Believe TPP Will Help Large Corporations,
But Hurt America’s Small Businesses
TPP will help this group
TPP will hurt this group
72%
Large corporations
+55
17%
24%
Small Businesses
64%
-40
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
14
After Voters Hear Full Debate, Strong
Opposition to Fast Track Remains
Do you favor . . . or oppose having Congress give the President fast-track authority to negotiate
a new Pacific trade agreement, which would mean that Congress must take an up-or-down
vote on the agreement as a whole and could not make any changes in the agreement?
Initial View
Post-Debate View
65%
62%
30%
28%
Strongly
45%
Strongly
43%
10%
Favor
5%
Strongly
13%
Strongly
12%
Oppose
Not sure
Favor
Oppose
Not sure
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
15
Political Risk for Members of Congress Who
Support Fast Track
If a Member of Congress voted in favor of giving the president fast-track negotiating authority
for the Pacific trade agreement, in the next election I would be:
All voters
Less Likely to Vote For
43%
-32
11%
More likely to vote
for candidate
Democrats
Independents
GOP
17
47
68
Conserv. GOP
74
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
46
44
39
43
Less likely to vote
for candidate
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting
16
Voters’ View of
Fast-Track Authority for the
Trans-Pacific-Partnership Pact
EMBARGOED UNTIL 2:30 ET, WED, JAN 29
National survey among 816 US registered voters
January 14-18, 2014
Voters’ View of Fast Track Authority for TPP Pact – January 2014 – Hart Research/Chesapeake Beach Consulting

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