Palestinian Spring Scenario

Palestinian Water Authority
Water Economics Project: Multi-Year Water
Allocation System (MYWAS)
Developing a Country-Specific Model for Palestine
Engineer Kamal Issa, MSc
Arab Water Week 2013
Building the capacity of the PWA
to interact with an array of stakeholders
in the context of inter- sectoral water planning
for an adaptive national water plan
that is coherent with meaningful social and
economic priorities.
 MYWAS will be invaluable tool for decision-makers
in planning and administering in order to
enhance water sector management within the
West Bank.
 Ensure that the Palestinian Water Authority has the
ability to evaluate and prioritize investments and
policies in the water sector, looking at impacts
system-wide, including different options.
Major Challenges Facing Palestine
in the Water Sector
 Limited water supply ( average 70 l/c/d).
 Almost 6% of the population and 17% of the
Palestinian communities are not served with tapped
 Over pumping of groundwater aquifers (in certain
Major Challenges Facing Palestine
in the Water Sector
 Sanitation services are limited and inadequate
(40% of population lack sanitation services, only
5% of collected WW is properly treated).
 Drought conditions that minimize aquifer
recharge (climate change).
 Saline water and pollution (mainly sewage).
MYWAS plays a key role in planning for different
economic futures and water availability, and
correctly identifying which infrastructure and
policies create the most resilient situation for
Palestinian people.
Benefits of Multi-Year Water
Allocation System
 MYWAS shows policy makers the system-wide
benefits of alternative infrastructure and policies
 Allows for specification of social values, such as
low pricing for the poor and setting aside water for
environmental purposes
 Can evaluate impacts of different scales of water
availability – and even water rights.
MYWAS-WEAP will be a major assistance in planning - PWA
will be able to identify practical / feasible projects.
 MYWAS-WEAP enables the cost-benefit analysis of water
infrastructure projects; it maximizes the net benefits to be
obtained from the available water while taking into account
water's special social values as specified by the user.
 MYWAS-WEAP permits the examination of the systemwide benefits and costs of proposed infrastructure projects
and assists in the choice of
 which ones to build,
 when to build them,
 and to what capacity.
Running MYWAS from WEAP
• Interface
data input
• Optimize
of water
• View
 MYWAS – Multi-Year Water Allocation System
 An innovative modeling tool that optimizes net benefits to be
achieved from water subject to the policies and values imposed by
the model user/stakeholder.
 Programmed in GAMS
 GAMS – General Algebraic Modeling System
 A high-level modeling system for mathematical optimization.
 WEAP – Water Evaluation And Planning System
 An integrated water resources planning tool. Adaptable to varying
levels of data availability and system sophistication.
 Python
 A general purpose, high-level programming language.
Why link MYWAS and WEAP?
 MYWAS can be run simply as GAMS code.
 However, WEAP provides an interface which:
 Simplifies the process of updating input files
 Facilitates the evaluation of different management
 Allows for the viewing of MYWAS results
 The most important distinction between MYWAS and
WEAP is that MYWAS goes much further than WEAP in
looking at the role and impact of social policies, including
subsidies and tariffs, and how these play out system-wide.
WEAP only tells you about water use – not water demand –
which is an understanding of the value of water for each
 The combination of MYWAS and WEAP actually gives policy
advice and thus makes a very powerful tool both internally
and externally donors and banks for making decitions
about funding the best investments in the water sector.
Two general approaches
 Make an accounting of the various components of
costs and values and compare them
 Model the entire system of demands, supplies, along
with social and ecological values
Economic Optimization
 A country or region can be divided into governorates
or units that capture the distribution of demands and
 With this, the optimal allocation of water is achieved –
one that maximizes the social welfare.
Entering Data into MYWAS-WEAP
 WEAP model objects
have built-in
parameters that allow
the user to describe
physical capacities,
cost of transmission,
and factors
influencing water
Entering Data into MYWAS-WEAP
 The WEAP interface
has model objects of
water supply and
demand that
facilitate the
construction of a
model schematic
Step 7: Results of Current account (Base Year
Scenarios as Tools
Three main basic scenarios have been developed considering
the political and economic uncertainties as the two main
driving forces to the development of the Palestinian future
water sector
These three scenarios are:
1- No Action Scenario (Status Quo-Crossroads)
2- Full Application of Oslo Agreement Scenario
3- Palestinian Spring Scenario
1- No Action Scenario (Crossroads)
 This scenario assumes no real additional quantities of water to be
allocated to the Palestinians which reflects somehow the present
 Under this scenario, some mitigation measures are being
considered (increasing pumping rates, water conservation,
minimize losses, enhance roof top rain water harvesting.
 The time horizon for this scenario will be the year 2025.
2- Full Application of Oslo Agreement Scenario
 Under this scenario, additional quantities of water will be
allocated to the Palestinians. These quantities are
estimated based on the fact that Israel would fulfill its
obligations according to the Oslo Agreement.
 The time horizon for this scenario will be the year 2025.
3- Palestinian Spring Scenario
 This scenario assumes that Palestinians will have their
own independent State and will be entitled to develop
their own water resources according to International
Law and Principles.
 Two time horizons are assumed:
2025 when Palestinians will develop part of their
resources 2040 when we will be able to develop all
our water resources
National-Regional possibilities
 Potential for joint decision-making regarding
trans-boundary issues and projects with Jordan
and even Lebanon
 The incorporation of the AGSM model in MYWAS,
a model that deals with agriculture, costs and
benefits. Can be used for cropping patterns.
 GMS/MODFLOW – incorporation of existing
aquifer models for more detailed and
precise analysis of production potentials and
well coordinates.
 Fashkha Springs along north-west banks of Dead
Sea and other development schemes can be
studied by applying a wide range of scenarios.
Every Water Drop in Palestine Counts
 Since most of Palestine’s water resources
controlled by Israelis, the remaining available
Palestinian quantities need to be managed with a
reliable and economic approach.
 An economic systems approach like MYWAS gives
the most comprehensive picture of the best
investments and policy choices in the water sector..
 PWA is grateful for the Czech Development
Agency’s support beginning in 2008 for the first
phase of the “WAS” and then for “MYWAS”.
 This support has motivated and allowed PWA to
gather and update national data in the water sector
– firstly for entry into the MYWAS model – but
maybe even more important – data that is and will
be a foundation for the water data bank.
Thank you

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