6.2 Construct and Interpret Binomial Distributions

Report
6.2 Construct and Interpret
Binomial Distributions
Page 388
What is a probability distribution?
What is a binomial distribution?
What is a binomial experiment?
Probability Distribution
• A probability distribution is a function that
gives the probability of each possible value of
a random variable. The sum of all the
probabilities in a probability distribution must
equal one.
Probability Distribution for Rolling a Die
x
1
2
3
4
5
6
P(x)
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
Let X be a random variable that represents the
sum when two six-sided dice are rolled. Make
a table and a histogram showing the
probability distribution for X.
SOLUTION
The possible values of
X are the integers from
2 to 12. The table
shows how many
outcomes of rolling
two dice produce each
value of X. Divide the
number of outcomes
for X by 36 to find P(X).
a.
What is the most likely sum when rolling two six-sided
dice?
SOLUTION
a.
The most likely sum when rolling two six-sided dice is
the value of X for which P(X) is greatest. This probability
is greatest for X = 7. So, the most likely sum when
rolling the two dice is 7.
b.
What is the probability that the sum of the two dice is
at least 10?
b.
The probability that the sum of the two dice is at
least 10 is:
P(X > 10 ) = P(X = 10) + P(X = 11) + P(X = 12)
=
3
1
2
+
+
36
36
36
=
6
36
=
1
6
0.167
6.2 Assignment day 1
Page 391, 1-9
6.2 Construct and Interpret Binomial
Distributions day 2
Page 388
Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution shows the probabilities of the
outcomes of a binomial experiment.
Binomial Experiments:
There are  independent trials.
Each trial has only two possible outcomes: success
and failure.
The probability of success is the same for each trial.
This probability is denoted by . The probability of
failure is given by 1 − .
For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly
 successes in n trials is:
P( successes)= (1 − )−
Sports Surveys
According to a survey, about 41% of U.S.
households have a soccer ball. Suppose you
ask 6 randomly chosen U.S. households whether
they have a soccer ball. Draw a histogram of the
binomial distribution for your survey.
SOLUTION
The probability that a randomly selected
household has a soccer ball is p = 0.41. Because
you survey 6 households, n = 6.
P(k = 0) = 6C0(0.41)0(0.59)6
0.042
P(k = 1) = 6C1(0.41)1(0.59)5
0.176
P(k = 2) = 6C2(0.41)2(0.59)4
0.306
P(k = 3) = 6C3(0.41)3(0.59)3
0.283
P(k = 4) = 6C3(0.41)4(0.59)2
0.148
P(k = 5) = 6C5(0.41)5(0.59)1
0.041
P(k = 6) = 6C6(0.41)6(0.59)0
0.005
A histogram of the distribution is shown.
a.
What is the most likely outcome of the survey?
SOLUTION
a.
The most likely outcome of the survey is the value
of k for which P(k) is greatest. This probability is
greatest for k = 2. So, the most likely outcome is
that 2 of the 6 households have a soccer ball.
b.
What is the probability that at most 2 households
have a soccer ball?
SOLUTION
b. The probability that at most 2 households have a
soccer ball is:
P(k < 2) = P(k = 2) + P(k = 1) + P(k = 0)
0.306 + 0.176 + 0.042
ANSWER
0.524
So, the probability is about 52%.
Classifying Distributions
Probability Distributions can be classified in two
ways:
Symmetric if a vertical line can be drawn that
divides the histogram into two parts that are
mirror images.
Skewed if the distribution is not symmetric.
Describe the shape of the binomial distribution
that shows the probability of exactly k
successes in 8 trials if (a) p = 0.5
SOLUTION
a.
Symmetric; the left half is a mirror image of the
right half.
Describe the shape of the binomial distribution
that shows the probability of exactly
 successes in 8 trials if (b)  = 0.9.
SOLUTION
b.
Skewed; the distribution is not symmetric
about any vertical line.
A binomial experiment consists of 5 trials with
probability p of success on each trial. Describe
the shape of the binomial distribution that
shows the probability of exactly k successes if
(a) p = 0.4 and (b) p = 0.5
ANSWER
a. The distribution is skewed since it is not
symmetric about a vertical line.
b.
The distribution is symmetric since it is
symmetric about a vertical line.
How can you figure this out without a histogram?
As p gets farther from 0.5, its shape becomes more skewed.
What is a binomial distribution?
• A probability distribution is a function that gives the
probabilities of each possible outcome for a random
variable.
• The sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution
must equal 1.
• For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly 
successes in  trials can be calculated from
 (1 − )− where n is the number of independent


 
trials and  is the probability of success.
• A binomial distribution is a probability distribution that
shows the probabilities of the outcomes of a binomial
experiment. To construct a binomial distribution, list
each of the possible outcomes. Then calculate the
probability of each of the outcomes.
6.2 Assignment day 2
Page 391, 13-15, 21-23,
30-38, 43-45

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