Microsoft PowerPoint - the NCRM EPrints Repository

Report
Information for parents on the effectiveness of
English secondary schools for different types of
pupil
Lorraine Dearden, John Micklewright and
Anna Vignoles
Institute of Education, University of London
Motivation
• DfE provides information on schools and pupil
achievement in a number of ways, including raw scores
• DCSF also measures school performance with a
contextualised value added model, which takes
account of the different pupil intakes of schools (Ray,
2006)
– better guide to school effectiveness than raw GCSE scores,
which capture differences in school intake characteristics
• But evidence that parents look more at raw scores than
CVA (Hansen and Machin, 2010)
• Our first objective is to try to find a simple measure
which is easy to understand for parents
Motivation
• Also assumes an average CVA score of a school is
meaningful as a summary statistic of the
performance of a school
• Yet the literature has shown schools to be
differentially effective
– Jesson and Gray, 1991; Teddlie and Reynolds, 2000;
Thomas et al. 1997; Wilson and Piebalga 2009
• Our second objective is to try to provide a simple
measure which allows for differential
effectiveness
Research aims
• If schools are differentially effective then
parents need to know the value added by a
school for children with similar prior
attainment to their own child
• We propose a measure that would do this
• Abstracts from issues of sorting into schools
and mobility
Key research questions
• To what extent do summary measures of
school performance, such as CVA, hide
differential performance of schools for
different types of children?
• Are simple descriptive measures of the
differential effectiveness of a school good
enough approximations?
Literature
• We contribute to the following literatures:
– technical limitations of published school performance
measures (Goldstein and Spiegelhalter 1996, Leckie
and Goldstein 2009)
– measurement of differentially effective schools
(Jesson and Gray, 1991; Teddlie and Reynolds, 2000;
Thomas et al. 1997; Wilson and Piebalga 2009).
– incentives for schools when using performance
measures to improve school accountability (Ladd and
Walsh, 2000)
Methodology
• Divide pupils into prior attainment groups on the
basis of KS2 scores (parents are only given group
information)
• Calculate various measures of individual
performance at GCSE for pupils in each of the
prior attainment groups at KS2
• For each school we average across the values for
its pupils in each prior attainment group - 8
summary statistics of pupil performance.
• If these group averages vary significantly - school
is differentially effective.
Data
• Integrated National Pupil Database
(NPD)/Pupil Level School Census (PLASC)
• Two cohorts of pupils in year 11 (age 16) in
2006/7 and 2007/8.
• State school pupils for whom we have KS2 test
scores
Prior attainment groups
• Key Stage 2’ (KS2) English and mathematics
attainment (age of 10/11 year 6)
• Expected level of achievement is 4
• 5 x 5 combinations of mathematics and
English into 8 groups
• Eight groups are below level 3; level 3-3; level
4-3; level 3-4; level 4-4; level 4-5; level 5-4 and
level 5-5.
KS2 prior attainment groups for year 11 children in state
secondary schools in 2006/7 and 2007/8
KS2 group
(cumul.)
Frequency
%
Below level 3
73,922
6.6
6.6
33
102,591
9.1
15.7
34
73,063
6.5
22.2
43
96,762
8.7
30.9
44
339,519
30.4
61.3
45
119,474
10.7
72.0
54
113,325
10.2
82.2
55
198,326
17.8
100.0
1,116,982
100.0
Total
Outcomes
• Capped GCSE scores
• Based on pupil’s 8 best GCSE scores
• Points achieved in English and mathematics GCSE
added to capped score
• Ensures that essential academic skills in
mathematics and English are included
– If already present in the capped score, this implies
that maths and English enter our measure twice
• This augmented capped score has recently been
adopted in official CVA model
Adjusted raw score measure
• Individual’s KS4 score minus the mean of other individuals in the
KS2 prior attainment group
• Similar to the value-added (VA) measure used by DCSF 2002-5
–
–
–
–
We use the mean group score rather than the median
We use prior attainment groups rather than a univariate score
We do not include science
Our KS4 measure is the capped 8 score augmented by English and
maths rather than the straight capped 8 score.
• DCSF summarised school performance by taking the average of
these individual-level differences across all pupils in the school.
• We calculate 8 separate averages for each school, one for each prior
attainment group.
VA and Adjusted VA measures
• VA measure then allows fully for prior
attainment by estimating the following
equation by group to predict expected KS4
• KS4ig = ag + bg.KS2ig + uig
g = 1..8 groups
• CVA measure then allows for contextual
factors by adding controls
– gender, month of birth, IDACI, FSM, EAL, SEN,
ethnicity
Absolute
Group adjusted raw score 1.
(crudely allows for prior diff = KS4-KS4
KS4
mean
attainment group)
metric: KS4 points
3.
Relative
2.
ZKS4 = [KS4-KS4mean]/KS4SD
metric: group KS4 SDs
4.
VA (value added controlling residual of regression of KS4 residual of regression of Z
KS4
for prior KS2 score)
on KS2
on ZKS2, where latter defined
analogously [equivalent to
metric: KS4 points
measure 3 divided by KS4SD]
metric: group KS4 SDs
5.
6.
Adjusted VA (value added as for measure 3 but with as for measure 4 but with
with covariates)
controls in regression
controls in regression
metric: KS4 points
metric: group KS4 SDs
Groups
Whole School - All
Group 22
Group 33
Group 34
Group 43
Group 44
Group 45
Group 54
Group 55
P-value (Groups
same)
Group
adjusted raw
score
15.8
34.0
[12.270]
19.5
[12.695]
28.4
[14.580]
33.0
[12.970]
21.4
[ 4.621]
14.0
[ 9.064]
15.4
[ 7.055]
-11.6
[ 5.783]
VA
15.8
28.5
[12.352]
20.1
[12.603]
27.6
[14.360]
31.4
[11.968]
21.1
[ 4.409]
14.2
[ 8.544]
13.9
[ 6.491]
-7.8
[ 5.231]
Covariate
Adjusted
VA
13.2
35.2
[11.981]
14.8
[11.899]
20.9
[13.312]
25.3
[11.721]
17.5
[ 4.267]
10.6
[ 8.238]
12.2
[ 6.778]
-5.8
[ 4.857]
0.005
0.02
0.039
No.
Obs. % total
666
46
6.9
62
9.3
34
5.1
48
7.2
225
33.8
75
11.3
78
11.7
98
14.7
Groups
Whole School - All
Group 22
Group 33
Group 34
Group 43
Group 44
Group 45
Group 54
Group 55
Groups av
P value
Group
adjusted
raw score
5.287
[ 4.478]
45.606
[22.419]
2.72
[15.359]
-24.973
[19.419]
23.643
[ 8.902]
15.457
[ 5.652]
3.189
[ 9.956]
-11.597
[11.686]
-16.698
[ 6.374]
4.808
[ 3.612]
0.001
VA
4.285
[ 3.517]
42.111
[22.059]
4.538
[14.887]
-25.092
[20.035]
27.316
[ 8.012]
15.315
[ 5.256]
5.476
[ 9.043]
-12.362
[11.157]
-11.367
[ 6.241]
6.058
[ 3.452]
0.001
Covariate
adjusted No.
VA
Obs
0.163
540
[ 3.363]
33.712
23
[19.209]
-1.695
46
[13.988]
-25.65
36
[19.396]
24.274
60
[ 8.131]
9.323
174
[ 4.933]
3.945
62
[ 8.297]
-15.72
66
[11.487]
-13.98
73
[ 6.066]
1.924
540
[ 3.307]
0.002
How common is differential effectiveness?
This slide shows the % of schools that are differentially effective, as
measured by a significant difference (at the 5% level) in the means of
the measures across the prior attainment groups.
Dependent Variable Absolute Relative
Raw score
40.0%
35.2%
VA
37.9%
31.7%
CVA
31.7%
25.0%
Number schools
3096
Differential effectiveness and selective schools
This slide shows the % of schools that are differentially effective
including and excluding selective schools.
Incl selective
Dependent Variable Absolute
Raw score
40.0%
VA
37.9%
CVA
31.7%
Number schools
3096
Excl selective
Absolute
37.0%
35.2%
29.8%
2932
Robustness Test
This slide shows the % of schools that are differentially effective as
measured by a significant difference at both the 5% level and the 1%
level in the means of the measures across the prior attainment
groups.
Dependent Variable
Raw score
VA
CVA
Number schools
5% significance
Absolute
37.0%
35.2%
29.8%
2932
1% significance
Absolute
23.4%
21.6%
17.0%
Rank correlations within group
Group 22
Group 33
Group 34
Group 43
Group 44
Group 45
Group 54
Group 55
Raw/VA Raw/CVA VA/CVA
0.99
0.92
0.93
0.99
0.91
0.92
0.99
0.88
0.89
0.99
0.91
0.92
0.99
0.87
0.89
0.98
0.86
0.89
0.98
0.89
0.91
0.97
0.86
0.9
Value Added rank correlations
excluding selective schools
Group 22 Group 33 Group 44 Group 55
Group 22
1.00
Group 33
0.68
1.00
Group 44
0.58
0.71
1.00
Group 55
0.37
0.49
0.71
1.00
Average
0.70
0.82
0.94
0.74
Robustness checks
• Sample size issues so re-estimated results
where n>10 in each prior attainment group in
each school
• Robustness to missing data problems – using
teacher predictions
Things to do....
• Multiple comparisons with the best/
comparison statistics
• Noise in rank correlations
Conclusions
• Schools are differentially effective but estimates
are sensitive to how this is measured
– 30-40% of schools are differentially effective at 5%
level of significance
– 20% of schools are differentially effective at 1% level
of significance
– estimates vary somewhat across measures (raw
scores, VA, adjusted VA) though there is high
correlation between measures 0.86-0.99
• Even the most conservative estimate suggests
one in six schools are differentially effective
Conclusions
• For school league tables (and hence parents) this
differential effectiveness would seem to matter
– the rank of schools varies substantially for different
prior attainment groups (correlation across groups
0.3-0.7)
– this of course abstracts from the statistical significance
of the differences
• But the results suggest that for a non trivial
proportion of schools parents need information
on value added by school for a particular prior
attainment group
Implications
• Simple measures also suggest significant amounts of
differential effectiveness but as estimates do vary by
measure we need to specify preferred measure
• Results indicate different rankings of schools for
different ability groups but further work needed on
multiple comparisons and identifying significant
differences in rank correlations
• Implications for policy: a sizeable minority of schools
add different value for pupils with different prior
attainment and there are simple measures that can
communicate this to parents.
References
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Goldstein, H. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1996) League tables and their limitations: statistical issues in comparisons of
institutional performance. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 159, 385-443.
Goldstein H, Rasbash J, Yang M, Woodhouse, G, Pan H, Nuttall, D, and Thomas, S (1993) ‘A multilevel analysis of
school examination results’ Oxford Review of Education, 19: 425-33.
Gorard, S. (2010) All evidence is equal: the flaw in statistical reasoning, Oxford Review of Education, (forthcoming).
Jesson, D and Gray J (1991). Slants on Slopes: Using Multi-level Models to Investigate Differential School
Effectiveness and its Impact on Pupils’ Examination Results. School Effectiveness and School Improvement: An
International Journal of Research, Policy and Practice. 2(3):230-247.
Ladd and Walsh (2000) ‘Implementing value-added measures of school effectiveness: getting the incentives right’,
Economics of Education Review, vol. 2 part 1 pp. 1–17.
Leckie, G. and Goldstein, H. (2009) The limitations of using school league tables to inform school choice. Journal of
the Royal Statistical Society: Series A. vol. 127 part 4, pp835-52.
Ray, A. (2006) School Value Added Measures in England. Paper for the OECD Project on the Development of ValueAdded Models in Education Systems. London, Department for Education and Skills
http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/research/data/uploadfiles/RW85.pdf.
Teddlie, C. and Reynolds, D. (2000) The International Handbook of School Effectiveness Research, Reynolds, Falmer
Press, London and New York.
Thomas, S, Sammons, P, Mortimore, P and Smees, R, (1997) ‘Differential secondary school effectiveness :
examining the size, extent and consistency of school and departmental effects on GCSE outcomes for different
groups of students over three years’, British Educational Research Journal, no. 23, part 4, p.451-469.
Wilson D and Piebalga A (2008) ‘Performance measures, ranking and parental choice: an analysis of the English
school league tables’ International Public Management Journal, 11: 233-66

similar documents