PPT - Clean Coalition

Report
Hunters Point DG + IG Project
Grid Modernization for a 21st Century Power System
Craig Lewis
Executive Director
Clean Coalition
650-796-2353 mobile
[email protected]
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
7 November 2013
Clean Coalition – Mission and Advisors
Mission
To accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that
deliver cost-effective renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental
sustainability, and provide energy resilience
Board of Advisors
Jeff Anderson
Eric Gimon
Co-founder and Former ED, Clean Economy
Network
Independent Energy Expert
Josh Becker
General Partner and Co-founder, New Cycle Capital
Patricia Glaza
Principal, Arsenal Venture Partners
Mark Z. Jacobson
Pat Burt
CEO, Palo Alto Tech Group;
Councilman & Former Mayor, City of Palo Alto
Jeff Brothers
CEO, Sol Orchard
Jeffrey Byron
Vice Chairman National Board of Directors,
Cleantech Open; Former Commissioner, CEC
Rick DeGolia
Director of the Atmosphere/Energy Program &
Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Stanford University
Dan Kammen
Director of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy
Laboratory at UC Berkeley; Former Chief Technical
Specialist for RE & EE, World Bank
L. Hunter Lovins
President, Natural Capitalism Solutions
Ramamoorthy Ramesh
Founding Director, DOE SunShot Initiative
Governor Bill Ritter
Director, Colorado State University’s Center for the
New Energy Economy, and Former Colorado
Governor
Terry Tamminen
Former Secretary of the California EPA and Special
Advisor to CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
Jim Weldon
Fred Keeley
Technology Executive
Treasurer, Santa Cruz County, and Former Speaker
pro Tempore of the California State Assembly
R. James Woolsey
Senior Business Advisor, InVisM, Inc.
Felix Kramer
John Geesman
Founder, California Cars Initiative
Former Commissioner, CEC
Amory B. Lovins
Chairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain
Institute
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
Chairman, Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies; Former Director of Central
Intelligence (1993-1995)
Kurt Yeager
Vice Chairman, Galvin Electricity Initiative; Former
CEO, Electric Power Research Institute
2
Distributed Generation + Intelligent Grid
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
3
Plan for Renewables Everywhere within D-grid
Project Size
Central Generation
Serves Remote Loads
Wholesale DG
Serves Local Loads
Retail DG
Serves Onsite
Loads
Behind the
Meter
Distribution
Grid
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
Transmission
Grid
4
WDG Delivers Scale & Cost-Effectiveness Fast
Solar Markets: Germany vs California (RPS + CSI + other)
35,000
Cumulative MW
30,000
25,000
20,000
California
Germany
15,000
10,000
5,000
2002
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sources: CPUC, CEC, SEIA and
German equivalents.
Germany has deployed 12 times more solar than California in
the last decade despite California’s 70% better solar resource!!!
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
5
German Solar Pricing Translates to 5 cents/kWh
Project Size
Euros/kWh
USD/kWh
California Effective
Rate $/kWh
Under 10 kW
0.145
0.1903
0.0762
10 kW to 40 kW
0.138
0.1805
0.0722
40.1 kW to 1 MW
0.123
0.161
0.0644
1.1 MW to 10 MW
0.101
0.1317
0.0527
Source: http://www.wind-works.org/cms/index.php?id=92, 10 September 2013
Conversion rate for Euros to Dollars is €1:$1.309
California’s effective rate is reduced 40% due to tax incentives and
then an additional 33% due to the superior solar resource
Replicating German scale and efficiencies would yield rooftop solar at only
between 5 and 7 cents/kWh to California ratepayers
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
6
DG+IG Initiative = Proving Feasibility of High DG
Work with five utilities across the US to deploy a DG+IG
demonstration project at each by yearend-2015
Prove viability of
Distributed Generation
(DG) providing at least
25% of total electric
energy consumed
within a single
substation grid area
Integrate Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions to ensure that grid
reliability is maintained or improved from original level
IG solutions include diversity and Energy Storage for sure, and
potentially, advanced inverters, forecasting & curtailment, and/or
Demand Response
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Benefits of DG+IG and Community Microgrids
Power Quality, Reliability & Resilience benefits
Increased customer satisfaction
Improved equipment longevity
Sustained vital services in otherwise complete
blackout scenarios
Avoided transmission & central generation
vulnerabilities
Economic benefits
Significant private-sector investment
Substantial local job creation
Fixed electricity prices for 20+ years
Localized energy spending
Avoided inefficiencies of central generation &
transmission
Environmental benefits
Avoiding dirty power generation, including nasty
peaker plants that are often sited in underserved
communities
Utilizing built-environments and disturbed lands for
generation projects
Preserving pristine environments from transmission
lines and other infrastructure
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
8
Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP) Background
• BHP has a long history of
environmental degradation.
• Houses one third of San
Francisco’s hazardous waste
sites.
• Was site of California's dirtiest
peaker power plant until
community activism forced its
closure in 2010.
• 20% of BHP children suffer from
asthma, and other chronic
illnesses, 4 times CA average
• BHP has one of the highest poverty rates in San Francisco, with
30% of families earning less that $10,000 per year, and a median
household income of $29,640 annually, as compared to $65,000 for
white San Franciscans and a $55,221 average citywide.
• An overwhelming 72% of the African Americans in BHP have incomes
below the federal poverty level.
Sources: Hunters Point Family and Grid Alternatives.
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Hunters Point Project Scope & Deliverables
Identify prospective sites and components for DG+IG solutions
throughout Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP), including PV, biogas,
wind, storage, demand response, and advanced inverters
Model and simulate existing grid characteristics
Model and simulate DG+IG scenarios that maintain or improve grid
power quality, reliability, and resilience
Recommend the optimum DG+IG scenario that best balances
system cost & performance considerations
Quantify the benefits of the recommended DG+IG scenario in
terms of economics, environment, and grid efficiency &
performance
Design streamlined procurement & interconnection procedures
Secure approvals for full DG+IG deployment
Deploy!!!
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
10
New Construction vs Retrofit Comparison
Hunters Point Substation serves Major Redevelopment Area
& Continuing Urban Neighborhoods (about 40/60 split)
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Hunters Point Project Goals
Get at least 25% of the electric energy consumed within the Hunters
Point substation area (Bayview-Hunters Point) coming from local
renewables
Deliver a proven model for maximizing local renewables under San
Francisco’s 2020 goal to be 100% powered by renewables
Achieve about $250 million dollars of private investment in BayviewHunters Point with about a third going to local wages
Reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50M pounds
Serve as a model for clean local energy that can easily be scaled and
replicated across the globe
Provide a compelling business case for Community Microgrids that
inspires cities and communities everywhere to implement Distributed
Generation + Intelligent Grid (DG+IG) projects
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Starting Point: BHP Total Load
Hunters Point Total Average Load: 328,217 MWh = 37.5 MW(ac)
• Existing conventional: 236,520 MWh = 27 MW(ac)
• Existing DG (PV+Biopower): 13,338 MWh = 1.5 MW(ac)
• Planned for Redev Zone: 78,359 MWh = 8.9 MW(ac)
PG&E Load –
Existing
PG&E Average Load
Calculation
•
•
•
kW average = kWHr / Hrs
kW average = kW peak x PG&E
Load Factor. DART has
different LFs for each customer
type.
kW peak and load factors
provided by PG&E
Feeder
SF P 1101
SF P 1102
SF P 1103
SF P 1104
SF P 1105
SF P 1106
SF P 1107
SF P 1108
SF P 1109
Totals:
Summer KVA
Winter KVA
KVA Lds fm LF
KVA Lds fm LF
3,428
3,193
4,383
5,062
2,518
2,947
325
451
4,679
4,685
1,836
1,769
4,238
4,616
2,167
2,849
2,433
2,242
26,008
27,815
NOTE: For all slides, average load is in MW (dc), total load is in MWh (ac) – except
where noted; e.g. where average load represents conventional rather than
renewable resources.
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Next: BHP DG Potential = 50MW New PV
Bayview/Hunters Point DG Potential: 95,194 MWh = 60.6 MW = 30% of
Total Load
• New PV: 52.1 MW
• Existing DG: 8.5 MW (PV equivalent)
Type
Avg. Load
(MW)
Total Load
(MWHr)
New PV:
Commercial
11.0
17,333
New PV:
Residential
18.0
28,275
New PV: Parking
Lots
2.6
4,102
New PV: Redev
Zone
20.5
32,146
Total New PV
52.1 MW
81,856
Existing PV Equiv.
8.5
13,338
Total DG Potential:
60.6
95,194
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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BHP DG Potential: Commercial
Potential PV: Commercial Rooftops
Highlights:
• Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 34
• Total PV-potential rooftop square feet = 1.4M
• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 736K
• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 11 MW
Hunters Point Rooftops - Commercial
Assumptions
Watts/sq. ft.
PV hrs./yr.
Participation Factor
15
1570
50%
Results
Total Sq. Ft.
Total Sq. Ft. Participating
Total Watts Participating
Total PV in MW
Total PV in Annual MWhr
Average kW per site
1,472,000
736,000
11,040,000
11.0
17,333
649
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
Example: 180 Napolean
St.
• PV Sq. Ft = 47,600
• System size = 714 kW
15
BHP DG Potential: Parking Lots
Potential PV: Parking Lots
Highlights:
• Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 13
• Total PV-potential parking lot square feet = 348K
• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 174K
• Total average generation, participating parking lots = 2.6 MW
Hunters Point Parking Lots
Assumptions
Watts/sq. ft.
PV hrs./yr.
Participation Factor
15
1,570
50%
Results
Total Sq. Ft.
Total Sq. Ft Participating
Total Watts Participating
Total PV in MW
Total PV in Annaul MWh
Average kW per site
348,400
174,200
2,613,000
2.6
4,102
402
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
Example: 1485 Bay Shore Blvd
• PV Sq. Ft = 37,800
• System size = 567 kW
16
BHP DG Potential: Residential
Potential PV: Residential Rooftops
Highlights:
• Total residential sites = 14,000
• Average PV-viable square feet per residence (from 50 sites) = 343
• Total PV-potential residential square feet = 4.8M
• Total participating sq. ft. @ 25% = 1.2M
• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 18 MW
Hunters Point Rooftops - Residential
Assumptions
Watts/sq. ft.
PV hrs./yr.
Participation Factor
15
1570
25%
Results
Total HH
Average PV-viable sq. ft. per HH
Total PV-viable Sq. Ft.
Total PV-viable Sq. Ft. Participating
Total PV in Watts
Total PV in MW
Total PV in Annual MWh
Average PV system size per HH, kW
14,000
343
4,802,560
1,200,640
18,009,600
18.0
28,275
5
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
Example: 50 average rooftops
• Average PV Sq. Ft = 343
• Average system size = 5 kW
17
BHP DG Potential: Redev Zone
Potential PV: Redev Zone
Highlights – total planned load of 78,359 MWh/yr:
• Total planned rooftop square feet in HP = 4.2M
• Total rooftop square feet in HP = 2.73M
• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 1.365M
• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 20.5 MW
Hunters Point Rooftops – Redev Zone
Assumptions
Watts/sq. ft.
PV hrs./yr.
HP % of Redev Zone
Participation Factor
15
1570
65%
50%
Results
Total Planned Rooftop Sq. Ft.
Total Rooftop Sq. Ft. in HP Substation
Total PV-usable Sq. Ft. Participating
Total PV in Watts
Total PV in MW
Total PV in annual MWh
4,200,000
2,730,000
1,365,000
20,475,000
20.5
32,146
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Benefits of 50 MW New DG in BHP
~$250M in Private Investment Over 20 Years Delivers These Regional Ben
Photo courtesy of GRID
Alternatives
Economic
Energy
$233M
$244M
total regional economic output
1,560 Job Years
local energy spend vs. imported over 20
years
near-term regional employment
$79.7M
590 Job Years
avoided transmission costs over 20 years
ongoing regional employment
Lower cost vs. natural gas
$85M
14.9¢/kWh solar vs. $15.3¢/kWh CCNG
LCOE
local wages in construction &
installation
$6.75M
state/local construction-related sales
taxes
Environment
82M lbs.
annual reductions in GHG emissions
15M Gallons
19
Source:
NREL Local
JEDI calculator.
Based on average
of $3.25/W(ac)
taxes & incentives using PG&E
Making
Clean
Energy Accessible
Nowinstalled costannual
water before
savings
Peek of the Future at Hunters Point
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Back-Up Slides
Back-Up Slides
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization
1. 6AM:
• no PV impact
2. Noon:
• 20MW PV causes
overvoltage
without DG+IG
3. Noon:
• DG+IG stabilizes
voltage impact
from 20MW PV
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
22
Advanced Inverters – Reactive Power Champion
REACTIVE (Q)
P: Real power (kW)
Q: Reactive power (kVAr)
S: Total power (kVA)
S
110%
Q
45.8%
REAL (P)
P
100%
100 kW solar PV AC power
110 kVA inverter capacity
0.9 power factor
45.8 kVAr reactive power
100 kW real power
Oversized inverter:
• No reduction of PV real power
• Draws up to 10 kW real power
from the grid
• Provides reactive power 24/7/365
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization
1. 6AM:
• no PV impact
2. Noon:
• 20MW PV causes
overvoltage
without DG+IG
3. Noon:
• DG+IG stabilizes
voltage impact
from 20MW PV
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
24
Distributed Voltage Regulation – Location Matters
“The old adage is that reactive power does not travel well.”
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008)
T&D lines absorb 820x more reactive
power than real
power.
Prevent Blackouts:
When a transmission
path is lost,
remaining lines are
heavily loaded and
losses are higher.
Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008)
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Replacing SONGS with DG+IG
vs
Huntington Beach
290 MVars
(minus line losses =
261 MVars)
570 MW of local solar with advanced
inverters, oversized by 10% set at 0.9
Power Factor = 261 MVArs
Local solar configured with advanced inverters alone can replace SONGS
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Replace SONGS – Energy Storage Potential
Targets proposed by CPUC include 745 MW storage in Southern California
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
27
PV Potential of Top 25 Roofs in LA is Over 75 MW
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Potential
Size (kW)
6,987
6,296
4,797
4,524
4,402
3,771
3,629
3,597
3,596
3,366
3,351
3,313
3,052
2,806
2,703
2,693
2,673
2,672
2,431
2,430
2,404
2,201
2,171
2,149
2,126
Address
300 WESTMONT DR
3880 N MISSION RD
400 WESTMONT DR
20525 NORDHOFF ST
2501 S ALAMEDA ST
4544 COLORADO BLVD
1800 N MAIN ST
5500 CANOGA AVE
20333 NORMANDIE AVE
8500 BALBOA BLVD
6600 TOPANGA CANYON BLVD
401 WESTMONT DR
9301 TAMPA AVE
11428 SHERMAN WAY
3820 UNION PACIFIC AVE
1601 E OLYMPIC BLVD
9120 MASON AVE
12745 ARROYO ST
5525 W IMPERIAL HWY
8201 WOODLEY AVE
8900 DE SOTO AVE
3410 N SAN FERNANDO RD
12820 PIERCE ST
4024 RADFORD AVE
3020 E WASHINGTON BLVD
Description
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Heavy Manufacturing
Food Processing Plants
Heavy Manufacturing
Shopping Centers (Regional)
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Shopping Centers (Regional)
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Heavy Manufacturing
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts
Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts
Heavy Manufacturing
Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts
Heavy Manufacturing
Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts
Warehousing, Distribution, Storage
Motion Picture, Radio & Television
Heavy Manufacturing
100+ GW of Built-Environment Solar Potential in California vs 60 GW of Peak Load
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
28
Renewables are Reliable
Country
Percent of electrical
generation in 2007 from
non-hydro renewables
2007 SAIDI –
outage duration
(minutes)
2007 SAIFI – outage
frequency (number of
outage events)
Denmark
29.4%
23
0.5
Germany
12%
24
0.5
United States
2.8%
240
1.5
Sources: Galvin Electricity Initiative, Electric Reliability: Problems, Progress and Policy Solutions, February 2011
U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, 2011
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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DG+IG Core Solutions for Voltage Regulation
Solutions
Distributed
Generation
Benefits
• Provisions reactive power where it’s needed most for regulation
• Avoids line losses
• Reduces congestion of transmission and distribution lines
Advanced Inverters
(paired with solar,
storage)
• Provisions distributed reactive power
• Reacts automatically within fractions of a second (conventional
resources can take minutes to react)
• Converts real power from the grid to reactive power 24/7/365
• Oversized inverters can deliver reactive power without reducing DG
real power output
• Ride-through voltage events, remain attached longer than
conventional spinning generators without harm
• Modern inverters already have these advanced capabilities
Energy Storage
(batteries, flywheel)
• Provisions both real and reactive power
• Generally paired with advanced inverters
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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DG+IG Solutions for Balancing Power & Frequency
Solutions
Demand Response
Energy Storage
(batteries, flywheel)
Forecasting
Benefits
• Automated demand response can address power imbalances within
fractions of a second
• Reduces or shift load away from peak hours to free up other
resources to provide real power
• Supplies and absorbs power
• Can reduce or shift load
• Can react automatically within fractions of a second
• Forecasting improvements will reduce unpredicted differences
between scheduled supply and actual supply
Curtailment (proactive • Reduce output from intermittent generators for proactive ramp
ramp control)
control to smooth out short term impulse
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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DG+IG Keeps Power in Balance
DR, ES shifts load
ES, Auto-DR,
curtail for steep
ramp
DR, ES
shifts
load
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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DG+IG Projects Begin with Grid Modeling & Simulation
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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DG+IG Policy Innovations Required
Integrate Grid Planning
Transparent and public T&D planning processes
Proactively evaluate DG+IG alternatives to new transmission investments
Necessary to meet goals re: renewables, EVs, costs, local job creation, resilience
Implement Full Cost & Value Accounting
Investments should reflect the full spectrum of rate impacts, economic growth,
health, safety, and environmental sustainability
Prevent bias against DG+IG (e.g. hidden transmission costs)
Monetize DG+IG Grid Services
Establishing markets that compensate at full value of grid services is fundamental to
optimizing value for ratepayers
Prioritize DG+IG Development in High Value Locations
Identify preferred locations on the grid based on transparent cost & value criteria
Set “Local Portfolio Standard” targets
Update Technical Standards:
Update national technical standards (IEEE/ UL) to allow DG+IG to provide grid
services to the fullest potential
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
34
Clean Coalition Overarching Objectives
From 2020 onward, at least 50% of all new electricity
generation in the United States will be from local sources.
Locally generated electricity does not travel over high voltage
transmission lines to get from the location it is generated to the area
it is consumed.
From 2020 onward, at least 80% of all new electricity
generation in the United States will be from renewable
sources.
By 2020, policies and programs are well established for
ensuring successful fulfillment of the other two objectives.
Policies reflect the full value of local renewable energy.
Programs prove the superiority of local energy systems in terms of
economics, environment, and resilience.
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
35
Clean Coalition Activities in 2013
Policy: Implement policy innovations that remove barriers and open market
opportunities for Distributed Generation (DG) and Intelligent Grid (IG)
solutions
Key victories: SB 43, AB 327 and positioning of Advanced Inverter as key reactive
power solution
Wholesale DG Programs: Establish and expand market opportunities for
WDG across the country
Key victories: Georgia Power, Los Angeles, Long Island, Palo Alto, Fort Collins, and
Sacramento
DG+IG: Stage five DG+IG demonstration projects for online by yearend-2015
Key progress: Hunters Point (PG&E), Virgin Islands (WAPA), Palo Alto, and Los
Angeles
Solar Developers Council: Open markets & remove barriers for members
Key progress: Multiple new WDG programs established and key policy victories
Communications: Increase impact and frequency of communications
Key progress: Three key communications pieces per month plus heavy blogging,
rapid response, and social media activities. New concepts like Advanced Inverters.
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Hunters Point Solar
Scale:LCOE
Cost Benefit
is less than CCNG
$/MWh
NATURAL GAS
SOLAR
500 kW Solar achieves lower LCOE than new natural gas generation –
Hunters Point average expected commercial size = 650 kW
Total
Costs
$250
Variable
Costs
$200
Fixed
Costs
550 MW CCNG Annual Fixed and Variable Power Plant Costs
$/MWh
$150
Busbar wholesale
cost from plant
2015: $11.7 ¢/kWh
2024: $17.1 ¢/kWh
2034: $21.7 ¢/kWh
$100
$50
LCEO: $15.4 ¢/kWh
$0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Year
Source: CEC, 2010
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Zero Net Energy is Key Driver for Smart Buildings
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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Adoption Cycle: Demos, Certs, Standards & Codes
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
39
Buildings of 2030 Must Fit with Cities of Future
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
40
Expect EV Chargers Everywhere
EVs provide the CLEAN Bridge between Energy, Buildings, Cities
and Transportation
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
41
German Solar Capacity is Small WDG (Rooftops)
German Solar PV Capacity Installed in 2010
26%
2,000
23.25%
1,800
22.5%
19%
1,600
1,400
MW
1,200
1,000
800
9.25%
600
400
200
up to 10 kW
10 to 30 kW
30 to 100 kW
100 kW to 1 MW
over 1 MW
Source: Paul Gipe, March 2011
Germany’s solar deployments are almost entirely sub-2 MW projects on builtenvironments and interconnected to the distribution grid (not behind-the-meter)
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
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US has Far Better Solar Resource than Germany
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
43
WDG is Key Market Segment with Superior Value
Total Ratepayer Cost of Solar
Distribution Grid
T-Grid
PV Project
100kW
size and type roof
500kW
roof
1 MW
roof
1 MW
ground
5 MW
ground
50 MW
ground
Required
PPA Rate
16¢
15¢
13¢
9-11¢
8-10¢
7-9¢
T&D costs
0¢
0¢
0¢
0¢
0¢
2-4¢
Ratepayer
cost per
kWh
16¢
15¢
13¢
9-11¢
8-10¢
9-13¢
Sources: CAISO, CEC, and Clean Coalition, Nov2012; see full original analysis from Jul2011 at www.clean-coalition.org/studies
The most cost-effective solar is large WDG, not central station due to
significant hidden T&D costs
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
44
Deployment Volume Drives Learning Curves
Solar pricing is reduced by 20% for every doubling of deployed volume
New technology
learning curve
Si learning curve
Efficiency
innovation
Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now
45

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