Risk Model - Flight Safety Foundation

Report
Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755
Dispatching Safer Flights
Using FORAS
Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D.
MITRE / CAASD
April 2014
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Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
Technology for
Proactive
Per flight
Pre-flight
Risk assessment
Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid,
Mitigation Tool
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A Little History
 Flight Safety Foundation,
ICARUS Committee, 1997
 US Naval Research
Laboratory
 EVA Airways
 MITRE Corporation
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Publication
SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the
FORAS
AeroSafety World
November 2013
DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH
SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL
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Benefits
 Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment
 Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index
 Full explanation and breakdown of risk components
 Identifies actionable risk components available for
mitigation
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Levels of Use
• Corporate
Management
• Safety
Department
• Dispatch,
Crew
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How does it look?
Dispatcher
Reviews &
Notifies
ALERT!
Safety
Manager
Central
Server
calculates
Risk Index
Supporting
Operations
Databases
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Input
 Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable
categories:
– Crew Factors
– Sector (City-pair) Factors
– Aircraft Factors
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Input
 Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable
categories:
– Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database,
Flight information System
– Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases
– Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases
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Output
 Risk Index
10.0
– Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0
– Relative score
– Compare to baseline (average)
1.0
 Critical Parameter identification
– Identify actionable over-limit parameters
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Operational Example
EVA Airways
Taipei, Taiwan
100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival
3 flights/day get 2nd level review
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FORAS Interface (EVA example)
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Example: Single fleet, single route trend
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Example: Single fleet comparison
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What are the critical parameters?
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Critical Parameters – City pair
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Critical Parameter – One fleet
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Method
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Knowledge-based System
Experts
Performance
Data
Forensic
Event
Analyses
Studies and Statistics
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach &
Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
City-Pair
Risk
Aircraft Risk
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach &
Landing Risk
City-Pair
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
Experience
Stressors
Length
Airport
Aircraft Risk
En-route
MEL
Suitability
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach &
Landing Risk
City-Pair
Risk
Crew Risk
Communicat
ion
…
Experience
…
…
Stressors
…
…
Length
…
…
Aircraft Risk
Airport
…
…
En-route
…
…
MEL
…
…
Suitability
…
…
…
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach &
Landing Risk
City-Pair
Risk
Crew Risk
Communicat
ion
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Experience
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Stressors
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Length
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Airport
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Aircraft Risk
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En-route
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MEL
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Suitability
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach &
Landing Risk
City-Pair
Risk
Crew Risk
Communicat
ion
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Experience
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Stressors
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Length
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Airport
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Aircraft Risk
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En-route
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MEL
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Suitability
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach &
Landing Risk
City-Pair
Risk
Crew Risk
Communicat
ion
…
Experience
…
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.
…
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.
.
Stressors
…
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…
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Length
…
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Aircraft Risk
Airport
…
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En-route
…
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MEL
…
Computation Flows
Upwards
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Suitability
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Example Risk Factors (ALAR)
 Conditions which lead to increased risk
 Examples (crew, sector, aircraft):
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–
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–
–
–
–
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Inter-crew communication
Crew experience
Experience at airport
Transient fatigue
Cumulative fatigue
Approach and Landing related MEL items
Sector length
ATC skill
Complex approach
Airport congestion
Visual Conditions
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FORAS Foundation
 Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS.
 FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management
 Managed by a committee of trustees
 Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models
 Progressively priced based on fleet size
 Available installation and training
 Stand-alone or cloud-based installation
 Generic or customized risk models
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FORAS Requirements
 Crew Roster and Tracking
 Flight Information System, MEL data
 NOTAM access
 Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.
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FORAS Foundation Further Information
 Contact Flight Safety Foundation
 Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation
 Danny Ho, EVA Air
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Summary
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Model Benefits
Centralize safety knowledge
Connect human factors and risk.
Works with operations data, not FOQA
“Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors.
Customizable to each carrier’s operations.
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Program Benefits
Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level.
Pre-flight risk assessment leads to
Awareness
Communication
Decision Aid
Mitigation
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Thank you
 Further information
Flight Safety Foundation
Danny Ho, EVA Airways
Mike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation

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