Turkey and the south caucasus

Report
REVISITING SECURITY
AND ENERGY
GEOPOLITICS
OF SOUTH CAUCASUS:
A TURKISH PERSPECTIVE
Assoc. Prof. Atilla Sandıklı, President of BILGESAM
Erdem Kaya, Research Fellow at BILGESAM
THE LOCATION OF THE CAUCASUS
THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
AT REGIONAL AND GLOBAL STAGE
• US and EU
• Euro-Atlantic security
system
• NATO’s eastward
enlargement
• Russia’s return
• The Eurasian Union &
Customs Union
• Turkey-Iran rivalry
• Iran-Israel rivalry
REASONS THAT MAKE THE REGION
IMPORTANT FOR TURKEY
• Security risks emanating from the
unsettled disputes
• Rivalry on energy resources and
routes
SECURITY RISKS
• The Armenian invasion of
Azerbaijani territories
• Armenia has no future plan to
withdraw from the NagornoKarabakh and adjacent
regions
• Security Council resolutions do
not work
• Minsk Group is not effective
• International community has
no pressure on Armenia
• Russian mediation helps the
Armenian side
SECURITY RISKS
• Separatist regions in Georgia:
Abkhazia and South Ossetia
• The new status quo in the
aftermath of the August War of
2008
• The entities in Abkhazia and
South Ossetia survive under
Russian protection
RIVALRY ON
ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES
• Competition over the operation and delivery routes
of Caspian oil and gas resources
• Russia’s efforts to stay monopoly and resurgence to
control the routes
• Azeri oil and gas, Kazakh oil, Turkmen gas
• Europe’s search for different suppliers
• Western companies’ involvement
RIVALRY ON
ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES
• Baku-Supsa oil
pipeline,
Baku-TbilisiCeyhan oil
pipeline,
Baku-TbilisiErzurum gas
pipeline
RIVALRY ON
ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES
• Russia’s policy of
disuniting Europe,
Nord Stream, South
Stream pipeline
projects
• Nabucco project
turned out to be
impossible
• TANAP project
TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
• Turkey-AzerbaijanGeorgia relations
improved
• Energy links increased
• Cooperation in
defense industry is
developing
• A trilateral group is
emerging
TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
• Reconciliation
attempt in 2009
between Turkey and
Armenia
• Temporary chill
between Turkey and
Azerbaijan
• Protocols could not
produce results
ARMENIA’S GOALS FOR 2015
• Armenia’s claims regarding the 1915 evens
• Diaspora’s activities
• Preparations for the 2015, the first anniversary of the
1915 events
• Attitude of US Congress
• Armenia will try to secure Vatican’s and pro-Israeli
lobbies for the 2015 goals
ARMENIA’S
BUDDING TALYSH POLICY
• Armenia’s Talysh policy against
Azerbaijan
• Pro-Talysh propaganda
• Iran’s support
PKK/KCK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
• PKK/KCK’s activities in Armenia and NagornoKarabakh
• Fund-raising activities
• PKK/KCK operates in South Caucasus under the
guise of seemingly civilian institutions, associations
and foundations.
• Attempt to recruit Yezidis in Armenia
• Certain Armenian political parties are known to
have links with the terrorist PKK/KCK
END OF THE PRESENTATION

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