Public Debt - ThaiPublica

Report
การสัมมนาวิชาการทางการเงิน: นโยบายทางเศรษฐกิจและสังคม
หนีส้ าธารณะ : ระเบิดเวลา หรือ ยากระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ?
A: Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure : Connecting ASEAN
B: Public Debt : Well contained under 50% of GDP
C: Bond Market : Innovative + Sustainable source of funding
นายจักรกฤศฏิ์ พาราพันธกุล
รองปลัดกระทรวงการคลัง หัวหน้ ากลุ่มภารกิจด้ านทรัพย์ สิน
E-mail : [email protected]
Tel. : +662 271 0520
19 ธันวาคม 2555 เวลา 9.30 – 12.00 น.
ณ ห้ อง 206 ตึกอนุสรณ์ 50 ปี
คณะพาณิชยศาสตร์ และการบัญชี
จุฬาลงกรณ์ มหาวิทยาลัย
A. Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure : Connecting ASEAN
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• Swift and Effective Government Fiscal Stimulus Packages  From S-T Injection
Towards L-T Investment
• Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure Investment Plan THB 2,000,000 million (USD 66 billion)
• Resilient Economy Despite Political Challenges
Swift and Effective Government Fiscal Stimulus Packages
From… S-T Injection
Towards… L-T Investment
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
15
1.5yr Emergency DECREE
1.5yr Emergency DECREE
THB 350,000 mil.
THB 350,000 mil.
(USD 12bn)
(USD 12bn)
10
Avg. GDP = 4.5-5.0%
(CY2013-19)
Real GDP yoy % Change
5
0
EU Crisis + Floods
US Crisis
-5
7yr Infrastructure BILL
Price Stability
Avg. CPI Growth Rate:
-10
Asian
Financial Crisis
THB 2,000,000 mil
(USD 66bn)
 Past 15yr (1998-2012) = 3.0%
 Past 10yr (2003-2012) = 3.1%
 Past 5yr (2008-2012) = 2.9%
-15
2015F
2020F
2015F
Source :
IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012, and Fiscal Policy Office, for Thailand’s 2012F-2019F
3
Upgrading Thailand Infrastructure
Connecting ASEAN
THB 2,000,000 Mil (USD 66 Bil)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Sources of Financing
SOEs Revenue
3%
Mode
PPP
8%
GOVT Borrowings
$17.2 Bil
89%
516,400 MB
$12.0 Bil
$13.2 Bil
Number of
Projects
Value of
Projects
% Share
(USD Bil)
Rail Transport
31
42.93
65%
Road Transport
13
15.97
24%
Water Transport
7
4.26
6%
Air Transport
4
3.13
5%
55
66.29
100%
Total
398,500 MB
359,900 MB
$6.5 Bil
$7.1 Bil
195,300 MB
213,800 MB
$4.9 Bil
146,600 MB
$1.3 Bil
$4.4 Bil
131,300 MB
39,200 MB
75,000 MB
150,000 MB
225,000 MB
300,000 MB
$7.5 Bil
BALANCED
Budget
$5.0 Bil
$7.5 Bil
400,000$10.0
MB Bil
Infrastructure Inv’t Plan
Budget Deficit (Fiscal Year)
GOVT BUDGET (Mil Baht)
Est. Revenue
2,100,000
2,342,500
2,527,500
2,726,000
2,941,000
Est. Expenditure
2,400,000
2,567,500
2,677,500
2,801,000
2,941,000
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
FY
Source: Report on Investment Plan for Transport sector (Year 2013-2020) and Fiscal Policy Office
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
4
Resilient Economy
Despite Political Challenges
Since 2011 Election, Stable Political Environment has
been Favourable to Government’s Long-Term Policies
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
2004:
2006:
2008:
2009: PM Abhisit Vejjajiva declares
2011
More than 100 suspected
Islamic insurgents carry out
coordinated dawn attacks on
police bases in the south
Military leaders overthrow the
interim government of Thaksin
Shinawatra. Retired General
Surayud Chulanont appointed
interim Prim Minister
Protesters block government
buildings and airports.
Opposition leader Aphisit
Vejjajiva becomes Thailand’s
new Prime Minister, the third
new leader in three months
a state of emergency and moves
troops into Bangkok to end an
opposition protest sit-in. Over 120
police injured in resulting clashes.
Emergency lifted on 24 April
Yingluck Shinawatra becomes
PM, garnering more than half
of 500 parliamentary seats.
Floods kill hundreds and engulf
the outskirts of Bangkok
Next Election
EU Crisis + Flood
US Crisis
(THB billion)
Source :
IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012, and Fiscal Policy Office, for Thailand’s 2012F-2019F
5
B. Public Debt : Well contained under 50% of GDP
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• Public Debt to GDP (by country)
• Public Debt Outstanding (as of Sep 2012) = 4.9 THB Trillion (44% of GDP)
• FY 2012 highlights : FIDF Debt Shared 25% of Total Public Debt
• FIDF Decree passed : reduced fiscal burden by 70,000 MB a year
(though Public Debt remains unchanged)
• Public Debt to GDP Well Contained under 50% amidst Crises
0%
Source : CIA – The World Fact Book
15%
15%
14%
14%
18%
18%
9%
108. Hong Kong
8%
18%
17%
107. China
8%
18%
18%
18%
60%
12%
19%
19%
19%
22. England
16%
24%
8. Greece
11%
20%
25%
31. India
19%
27%
69%
19%
30%
29%
28%
20%
31%
31%
108%
20%
32%
31%
31%
30%
26%
24%
32%
32%
32%
30%
24%
33%
33%
33%
44%
26%
35%
34%
34%
89. Indonesia
28%
36%
Sep 2012
56. Thailand
30%
38%
35%
43%
41%
38%
35%
44%
44%
45%
46%
46%
46%
43%
40%
38%
47%
47%
47%
48%
39%
49%
53%
42%
50%
42. America
44%
52%
52%
49%
48%
54%
53%
49%
48%
55%
58%
58%
59%
50%
59%
59%
192%
58%
2. Japan
54%
61%
304%
55%
64%
64%
60%
60%
68%
67%
77%
67%
18. Germany
62%
72%
70%
156%
304%
1. Zimbabwe
54%
50%
69%
78%
78%
77%
75%
83%
80%
95%
99%
100%
115%
150%
80%
87%
108%
132%
200%
192%
% to GDP
105%
118%
185%
304%
Zimbabwe
Japan
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Lebanon
Jamica
Singapore
Italy
Greece
Sudan
Belgium
Iceland
Nicaragua
Sri Lanka
Egypt
France
Hungary
Israel
Germany
Portugal
Canada
Jordan
United Kingdom
Ghana
Malta
Austria
Cote d'Ivorie
Ireland
Netherlands
Croatia
Norway
India
Phillippines
Uruguay
Mauritius
Malawi
Bhutan
El Salvador
Albania
Kenya
Morocco
World
United States
Cyprus
Vietnam
Spain
Panama
Costa Rica
Argentina
Turkey
Malaysia
Poland
United Arab Emirates
Tunisia
Brazil
Aruba
Columbia
Thailand
Pakinstan
Bolivia
Seychelles
Switzerland
Sweden
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Dominican Republic
Finland
Yemen
Denmark
Bangladesh
Montenegro
Mexico
South Africa
Cuba
Gabon
Slovakia
Pupua New Guinea
Taiwan
Czech Republic
Guatamala
Latvia
Macedonia
Syria
Ethiopia
Zambia
Slovenia
Lithunia
Serbia
Moldova
Bahrain
Ukraine
Indonesia
New Zealand
Korea, South
Trinidad and Tobago
Mozambique
Peru
Tanzania
Honduras
Paraguay
Senegal
Saudi Arabia
Ecudor
Romania
Iran
Venezuela
Uganda
Namibia
Australia
China
Hong Kong
Botswana
Nigeria
Angola
Gibraltar
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Cameroon
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Algeria
Chile
Kuwait
Estonia
Public Debt to GDP (by country)
Too BiG Too FaLL???
WORLD
54%
6. Singapore
118%
2009 est.
Very High HDI
High HDI
Medium HDI
32. Philippines
Low HDI
50. Malaysia
91. South Korea
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Sep 2012) = 4.9 THB Trillion (44% of GDP)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Components of Public Debt
Units : THB Mil.
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF)
2,381,879**
2. Government Debt (for FIDF)
1,133,132
3. Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
5. Autonomous Agency Debt (VP and EFPO)
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Jun 2012)
Special Financial Institution Guaranteed Debt
7%
0.35 THB Trillion
Autonomous Agency Debt (VP and EFPO)
1,064,289
1%
352,207
0.006 THB Trillion
5,732
4,937,239
*Including 52,647 THB Mil. of External Debt
Non-Financial
State Enterprise Debt
22%
GOV’T Debt
1.06 THB Trillion
GOV’T Debt
(for FIDF)
22%
1.13** THB Trillion
48%
2.38 THB Trillion
FY 2012 highlights
 FIDF Decree Passed : educed fiscal burden by 60,000MB a year (though public debt remained)
 PDDF Activated : restructuring of FIDF’s 340,122MB saved over 7,000MB a year and enhanced overall FIDF maturity profile
 Strategies in Managing FIDF’s Debt Portfolio : to allow for early-repayment
Special Financial
Institutions
Guaranteed Debt
195,230 MB
Non-Financial State
Enterprise Debt
1,033,898MB
GOVT Debt
(for FIDF)
1,133,973MB
1,500,000
1,000,000
FIDF1 = 500,000MB
FIDF1 = 463,275MB
FIDF2 = 112,000MB
-
500,000
393,535 MB
FIDF3 = 693,327MB
FIDF3 = 669,857MB
13,789 MB
263,178MB
-
FIDF principle debt
at initial period
(FY'1997,2002)
FIDF principle debt
outstanding
at end of FY'2012
cummulative interest
payment at end of FY'2012
Other State
Agencies , 8,820 MB
GOV'T Debt
2,215,727MB
Interest Payment Reduced ~70,000 THB Mil. a Year
FIDF Decree Passed
(Although Public Debt Unchanged, Fiscal Room Freed up by 5%)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
300,000
THB Mil.
% Share of Total Budget Expenditures
Interest Payment for FIDF Debt
15%
Interest Payment for GOV’T Debt
Principle Repayment for GOV’T Debt
12%
% Share of Allocated Principle & Interest to Budget Expenditures
11%
200,000
10%
9%
8%
7%
5%
4%
68,424
66,540
68,907
66,485
69,679
69,217
66,917
57,719
58,233
42,955
46,537
35,870
-
39,125
5%
50,000
100,000
FIDF Interest Payment
2013F
0%
Public Debt to GDP
Including THB 2,000,000 million (USD 66bn)
Infrastructure Investment Plan (2013-2019)
Well Contained under 50% amidst Crises
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
75%
60.5%
60.3%
Fiscal Sustainability Framework
60%
Public Debt to GDP < 60%
51.0%
48.7%
47.8%
50%
48.5%
49.9%
48.2%
46.1%
44.2%
41.7%
38.5%
35.3%
(1) Euro Financial Crisis
(2) Thailand’s Flooding Crisis in 2011
(3) Infra. Investment Plan (2013-19)
Asian Financial Crisis
THB 2,000,000 million (USD 66 billion)
US Financial Crisis
Water Transport
6%
25%
18.9%
Air Transport
5%
17.8%
14.2%
12.3%
Road Transport
24%
Rail Transport
65%
External Public Debt to GDP
at Single Digit
8.7%
5.0%
4.3%
3.1%
8.3%
Public Debt to GDP
External Public Debt to GDP
2019F
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0%
C. Bond Market : Innovative + Sustainable source of funding
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• Bond Market Cap. = 8.4 THB Trillion : Government Bond = 3.0 THB Trillion
• Innovation of Government Debt Securities (FY2007 – FY2013)
• Full Capacity of All Government Funding Instruments (FY2013)  1,150,000 THB Mil
• Well-Developed Bond Market Improved Government Debt Profile Dramatically
Bond Market Cap. = 8.4 THB Trillion
GOVT Bond = 3.0 THB Trillion
($270 Bil.)
($100 Bil.)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
% Share of GDP
Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer
128%
Baht Bond
1%
Corp. Bond
19%
SOE Bond
7%
96%
96%
75%
$270 Bil.
(Nov 2012)
24%
Asian Fin.
Crisis
12%
BOT Bond
Maturity Profile
3.1 THB Trillion
37%
BOT vs GOVT Bond
BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 7yrs 6mths
GOVT Bond
14%
22%
62%
BOT
< 1y
($100 bil)
MOF
33%
2-3y
17%
5%
26%
21%
3-5y
6-10y
11-50y
3.0 THB Trillion
36%
FY2007 – FY2013
Innovation of GOV’T Debt Securities
FY 2007-10
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
30-yr Benchmark Bond
• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity of Total Government Debt Portfolio  5yrs 7mths to 7yrs 6mths
• Meet Long-term investors’ demand
Floating Rate Bond
• Increase floating debt ratio of Total Government Debt Portfolio 10% to 18%*
• Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)
Step-up Savings Bond
• Broaden investor base – Retail investors
• Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond
FY 2012-2013
FY 2011
From 2007 - 2012
Fixed Rate Promissory Note
• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors
• Non-Benchmark tenors
50-yr Benchmark Bond
• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity
• 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)
10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)
• Strong anti-inflationary signal
• Deepen the Development of the Bond market
• 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies
Electronic Retail
Savings Bond
• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase / Offer throughout the year
• Develop the retail bond into an electronic form  Scripless System
• Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches
Amortised Bond
• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP
• Pay back the bond principal by installments  Promote the government’s fiscal discipline
Bond Switching & Consolidation
Upgrade
PD Privileges
• Allow both issuer and investors to improve their portfolio
• Larger outstanding size + Less bond series  more liquidity in the secondary market
PDDF Activated
(Public Debt Restructuring
and Domestic Bond Market
Development Fund)
15-yr ILB
Baht
Bond
CGIF Activated
(Credit Guarantee and
Investment Facility)
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments
1,150,000 THB Mil.
($40 Bil.)
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
LB 3 yr
150,000 THB Mil. ($5 bil.)
LB 5 yr
120,000 THB Mil. ($4 bil.)
LB 7 yr
80,000 THB Mil.
($3 bil.)
LB 10 yr
80,000 THB Mil.
($3 bil.)
LB 15 yr
60,000 THB Mil.
($2 bil.)
LB 20 yr
60,000 THB Mil.
($2 bil.)
LB 30 yr
30,000 THB Mil.
($1 bil.)
LB 50 yr
20,000 THB Mil.
($0.8 bil.)
Benchmark Bond
7
5
3
10
50
30
20
Funding Instruments
15
($20 bil.)
Benchmark Bond
~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)
($3 bil.)
Savings Bond
~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
($3 bil.)
Promissory Note
~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
($1.5 bil.)
Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
($1.5 bil.)
Inflation-Linked Bond
~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
($1.2 bil.)
Floating Rate Bond
~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
($7 bil.)
Bank Loan
($40 bil.)
Total
~200,000 THB Mi (18%)
1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved
GOV’T Direct Debt (1.87 THB Mil.) Profile Dramatically
ATM Lengthened
Cost Lowered
Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
As of Dec 2007
As of Jun 2012
ATM
Average-Time-to-Maturity
LENGTHENED by 3 ½ yrs
8yrs 9mths
ATM
5yrs 3mths
Avg. cost
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 30 bps
4.5%
.
Avg. cost
(While ATM Lengthened by 3 ½ yrs)
4.2%
Float
Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio
(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)
10%
Float
Fixed
Fixed
90%
87%
Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
61%
Target Reached : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs
is less than 50% of Total Debt
Maturity Profile as of Jun 2012
50%
24%
next 5 yrs
13%
year 6 - 10
20%
15%
10yrs +
next 5 yrs
year 6 - 10
30%
10yrs +

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