Our 50 States: [Name of Your State]

Report
HART
RESEARCH
A SSOC I AT ES
Immigration Reform:
The Voters’ Outlook
Key findings from nationwide telephone
survey among 1,003 2012 voters
conducted January 7 – 10, 2013
Immigration Is Good For America
Overall View Of Immigration
All Voters
Bad thing for
America today
21%
Good thing for
America today
65%
Good Bad
Thing Thing
Not
sure
14%
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
74%
60%
58%
14%
23%
28%
Whites
African Americans
Hispanics
63%
70%
69%
24%
13%
13%
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
2
Immigration System Is Not Working
How would you describe the state of the immigration system today?
All Voters
75%
48% of voters say that
fixing the immigration
system should be a high
priority for Congress.
20%
Very well 
Needs
complete
overhaul
46%
2%
Working
well
Not working
well/overhaul
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
3
Public’s Goals For Immigration
Reform
This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system:
89%
83%
79%
73%
71%
66%
63%
51%
40%
Make sure all immigrants pay taxes
Require employers to verify that all employees are legal
Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once and
for all
Do more to secure the border to stop people from entering the country
illegally
Prevent employers from lowering wages by exploiting immigrant
workers
Prevent illegal immigrants from coming into the country in the future
Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally
become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship
Help unite families here that have been separated by our current
immigration laws
Deport all immigrants who have entered the United States illegally
* Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
4
Public’s Goals For Immigration
Reform: Democrats/Republicans
This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system:
Make sure all immigrants pay taxes
Require employers to verify that all employees are legal
Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once
and for all
Do more to secure the border to stop people from entering the
country illegally
Prevent employers from lowering wages by exploiting immigrant
workers
Prevent illegal immigrants from coming into the country in the
future
Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally
become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship
Help unite families here that have been separated by our current
immigration laws
Deport all immigrants who have entered the United States illegally
Demo- Repubcrats licans
84%
93%
74%
93%
78%
83%
59%
87%
75%
70%
50%
82%
72%
53%
65%
38%
28%
52%
* Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
5
Voters Want Legal Status To Include
Chance For Earned Citizenship
This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system:
Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal…
and have the opportunity to
work toward citizenship
but not be given a chance to
earn citizenship
76%
72%
63%
62%
61%
54%
53%
38%
33%
32%
35%
30%
33%
23%
ALL
VOTERS
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Liberals
Moderates
Conservatives
* Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
6
By Itself, A Path To Citizenship Creates
An Interesting Political Dynamic
Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal
and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship.
Mean ratings
6.4
7.4
Independents
6.9
6.3 GOP
1st Generation
Immigrant
2nd Generation
Immigrant +
Primary
Voters
5
10
In The
Middle
Single Most
Important Goal
7.4
6.5
Less than $50k
Union
6.3
7.0
7.7
Republicans
$50k-$100k
Democrats
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
7
Voters Say Border Security And Legal
Status Are Both Important
With which statement about immigration do you agree more?
The first priority on immigration should be getting control of our
border. Until we do that, we should not be granting legal status to
those who came here illegally, as it will just invite more illegal
border crossings.
31%
Improving border security and fixing our broken immigration system
are both important. We should require immigrants to become legal
and pay taxes, while also improving border security.
64%
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
8
However, There Are Areas Of Partisan Friction As
Voters Wrestle With Different Concepts
With which statement about immigration do you agree more?
The first priority on immigration should be getting control of our border. Until
we do that, we should not be granting legal status to those who came here
illegally, as it will just invite more illegal border crossings.
Improving border security and fixing our broken immigration system are both
important. We should require immigrants to become legal and pay taxes, while
also improving border security.
Democrats
18%
78%
Independents
40%
56%
Republicans
42%
50%
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
9
Strong Support For Immigration
Reform Plan
Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan
All Voters
Description Of Main Elements
1. Strengthens border security by deploying better
technology and focusing enforcement resources
on the most serious security threats.
77%
2. Requires employers to verify that all employees
are legal, and any companies that employ illegal
immigrants would pay large fines.
Strongly
38%
14%
Strongly 6%
Approve
3. Illegal immigrants already in the United States
with no criminal record would be required to
register for legal status, learn English, and pay
taxes, and they could work toward citizenship
over time.
4. Ties the amount of legal immigration to the state
of the economy, increasing it when employers
cannot fill jobs and decreasing immigration levels
when unemployment is high.
Disapprove
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
10
Support for Immigration Reform Plan
Crosses Partisan, Ideological Divides
Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan
Total
Approve
All Voters
77%
Strongly
38%
Very conservative GOPs
GOP primary voters
Republican CDs
14%
Strongly 6%
Approve
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Disapprove
77%
72%
80%
76%
82%
80%
Whites
African Americans
Hispanics
77%
76%
77%
Age 18 to 34
Age 35 to 49
Age 50 to 64
Age 65/over
81%
77%
77%
72%
High school/less education
Some college
College graduates
81%
77%
76%
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
11
Support For Individual Immigration
Reform Policies
 Strongly approve
 Somewhat approve
Illegal immigrants
required to pay taxes
83%
Border security: better
technology, focus
92%
67%
Illegals with no criminal
record must register for
legal status
Employers verify
employees legal, large
fines if employ illegals
Work toward citizenship
only if registered, learn
English, pay taxes
89%
66%
88%
69%
59%
Illegal immigrants must
learn English
Legal immigration tied to
economy/unemployment
rate
94%
85%
83%
64%
24%
57%
Democrats 56%
Republicans 58%
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
12
Voters More Likely To Support
Pro-Reform Candidates
How would it affect your vote for your Member of Congress if
he/she voted for this immigration reform plan?
All Voters
More
Likely
Less
Likely
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
56%
47%
53%
7%
11%
8%
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
50%
55%
53%
54%
8%
6%
7%
12%
53%
34%
8%
More Likely
To Vote
Less Likely
To Vote
Wouldn’t
Affect Vote
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
13
If Immigrants Become Legal, Earned
Citizenship Should Be Available
If immigration reform establishes legal status for people who originally
entered the country illegally, which is the better way to do that?
It would be better to give people a chance to eventually earn
citizenship at some point after they register for legal status, pass a
background check, learn English, and pay taxes.
87%
They should be allowed to qualify for legal status and work in the
United States but should never be given the chance to earn
citizenship.
7%
Neither/should not be given legal status (VOL)
4%
Republicans:
Chance to earn citizenship 83%
Legal status/not citizenship 10%
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
14
Debating Immigration Reform:
Amnesty?
With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more?
66%
SUPPORTERS say this is not amnesty,
it's accountability. The plan requires
those here illegally to pay taxes, learn
English, and pass a criminal background
check before they can become legal and
stay in the United States.
28%
Opponents
OPPONENTS say this is just amnesty
for illegal immigrants. The plan rewards
millions of illegal immigrants who broke
the law, at the expense of others who
waited in their home country and played
by the rules.
Supporters
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
15
Debating Immigration Reform:
Unfair To Legal Immigrants?
With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more?
58%
34%
Opponents
OPPONENTS say it is not fair to let
illegal immigrants become legal ahead
of people who have followed the rules
and applied to come here legally. If they
found a way to get here, they can find a
way to get home and then apply to
come to the United States the right way.
SUPPORTERS say it's not realistic to
deport 12 million immigrants. And this
plan requires illegal immigrants to go to
the back of the line and wait their turn
behind those immigrants who came to
the United States legally, before
receiving citizenship.
Supporters
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
16
Debating Immigration Reform:
Unfair To Legal Immigrants?
With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more?
Opponents
Supporters
73%
46%
41%
46% 45%
21%
OPPONENTS say it is not fair to let
illegal immigrants become legal ahead
of people who have followed the rules
and applied to come here legally. If they
found a way to get here, they can find a
way to get home and then apply to
come to the United States the right way.
SUPPORTERS say it's not realistic to
deport 12 million immigrants. And this
plan requires illegal immigrants to go to
the back of the line and wait their turn
behind those immigrants who came to
the United States legally, before
receiving citizenship.
Democrats Independents Republicans
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
17
Debating Immigration Reform:
Americans Out Of Work
With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more?
62%
30%
Whites
Af-Am.
31%
31%
Opponents
Whites 60%
Af-Am. 61%
OPPONENTS say that with millions of
Americans out of work, now is not the
time to increase immigration and make it
easier for illegal immigrants to stay here.
We need to take care of Americans first
before we reward those who have
broken our laws with amnesty.
SUPPORTERS say this plan cracks
down on illegal hiring by requiring
employers to verify workers’ legal status
and increasing penalties for those who
hire illegal immigrants, so that American
workers’ wages are not undermined.
America is stronger when immigrants
get legal and pay taxes.
Supporters
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
18
After Debate, Support For Immigration
Reform Remains Strong
Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan
Initial Support
80%
77%
Strongly
38%
Support After Debate
14%
Strongly
39%
Strongly 6%
Approve
Disapprove
14%
Strongly 6%
Approve
Disapprove
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
19
The Bottom Line For Immigration
Reform
► Importantly, an opportunity to earn citizenship is on the table, and
can achieve bipartisan support as part of a comprehensive plan to
fix the immigration system.
► However, it is important to remember that the primary drivers of
support for reform are Americans’ desire to secure the border,
prevent employers from hiring illegal immigrants, and ensure that
immigrants become legal taxpayers.
► Addressing concerns like taxes and border security helps create
the foundation for a plan that many voters see as “accountable.”
This is particularly important to Republicans and independents.
► Americans express a desire to resolve the immigration issue once
and for all. This is not a debate they want to revisit.
Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
20
HART
RESEARCH
A SSOC I AT ES
Immigration Reform:
The Voters’ Outlook
Key findings from nationwide telephone
survey among 1,003 2012 voters
conducted January 7 – 10, 2013

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