The Widening Skills Gap - Michigan Community College Association

Report
The Widening Skills Gap
Michigan’s Reality, Regional Approaches and
the Role of Community Colleges in the
Attraction, Development and Retention of
Talent in the Global Marketplace
Panelists
Jason Palmer
Kevin Stotts
Lisa Katz
Michigan’s Labor Market: Themes
from the Recovery and Beyond
Jason S. Palmer
Research Director
Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic
Initiatives
Elevated unemployment and record longterm joblessness seen during recovery
Unemployment Rate (%) & Duration of Joblessness (Weeks)
25
50
20
40
Rate (%)
35
15
30
13.3
10
9.3
7.1
5
4.0 3.6
4.6
0
25
20
10.3 15
9.0
10
5
0
Unemployment Rate, National
Unemployment Rate, Michigan
Average Duration of Unemployment, Michigan
Source: DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives
Duration (Weeks)
45
Left behind in the recovery: The long-term
unemployed and discouraged workers
Some problems with long-term unemployment:
 Today, about 156,600 Michiganders have been out of
work for 52 weeks or longer. And, this does not count
those who have stopped looking for work.
 Many are structurally unemployed. That is, there is a
significant mismatch between their skills and the skills
demanded in the economy.
 The longer a person is unemployed, it may be more
difficult for them to find work or to make ends meet.
Youth participation and unemployment
at record levels in recent years
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) & Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
80
25
20
70
15
65
10
60
5
55
50
-
LFPR Total
LFPR Youth
Youth Jobless Rate
Source: DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives
Unemployment (%)
Participation (%)
75
Youth struggling since the global
recession and during the recovery
Some problems with youth joblessness:
 Today, about 127,000 youth in Michigan are looking
for work. This excludes youth who have given-up
looking for work or those who are underemployed.
 Youth joblessness has high social costs: Path
dependence; underutilization; out-migration; even
delinquency and violence.
Occupations requiring more education
will see more growth through 2020
Occupational Growth by Education/Training, 2010-2020
High School Diploma or Equivalent
6.6
Non-Degree Award
11.2
Associate's
12.7
Bachelor's
11.0
Master's
13.1
Doctoral or Professional
Total, All Occupations
11.6
8.5
Employment Growth, 2010-2020 (%)
Source: DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives (Preliminary)
By 2020, Health, IT, and Business occupations
will have seen the most growth
Occupational Category
% Change
2010-2020
Annual
Openings
Healthcare Support
24.3
5,400
Computer and Mathematical
18.3
3,200
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
16.6
9,200
Business and Financial
12.2
6,000
Construction and Extraction
9.3
3,700
Architecture and Engineering
8.6
3,700
Total, All Occupations
8.5
135,100
Production
3.2
8,500
Source: DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives (Preliminary)
Select real-time in-demand “tools and
technologies”
Tools and Technologies
Real-Time Job Ads
Microsoft Office
3,630
Project Management
2,249
Time management
2,038
Business development
1,505
Structured Query Language (SQL)
1,190
Quality Assurance (QA)
908
Software development
890
Oracle Java
801
Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted Online Data Series
Select real-time in-demand
“certifications”
Certification
Real-Time Job Ads
HIPAA
961
Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS)
554
Registered Nurse (RN)
544
Certified Long Term Care (CLTC)
403
Board Eligible (BE)
298
Esthetician and Cosmetology (ECL)
229
Automotive Service Excellence (ASE)
165
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)
161
Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted Online Data Series
Difficult-to-Fill Occupations and Skills:
Physical Therapists
Current Advertisements:
1,600 postings
Long-Running Postings:
120 or 7.5%
Tools and Technologies
 Orthotics
 Paraffin baths
 HMS software
Hourly wage range:
$21 to $51
Outlook 2010-2020:
26.6% Growth
275 Annual Openings
Certifications
 HIPPA
 Occupational Therapy
 CPR
Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted Online Data Series and DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market
Information and Strategic Initiatives
Michigan’s Labor Market: Themes
from the Recovery and Beyond
Jason S. Palmer
(517) 335-5267
[email protected]
Please visit our website at www.michigan.gov/lmi
TITLE
SUBTITLE
•
A Talent System
Click to edit Master text
styles M a y 3 0 , 2 0 1 2
–
Second level
•
Third level
–
Fourth level
» Fifth level
TALENT 2025 is a
catalyst to ensure an
ongoing supply of
world class talent in
West Michigan.
TITLE
A
Talent System
S Ua B
M
y T3I0T, L 2E 0 1 2
•
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styles
• Regional Forecast
–
Second level
•
Third level
–
Fourth level
» Fifth level
• Key Strategies
• What Works
Forecasts of National Talent Demand
Employment Share by Educational Attainment Demanded
Degree level
Advanced degree
Master's
Bachelor's
Associate's
Some college
Postsecondary cert.
HS diploma or GED
Less than HS
Total share associate's or higher
2010 U.S.
3.1
1.4
15.5
5.6
4.6
0.6
43.4
25.9
25.6
U.S. Forecast
Consensus
BLS (2020)
2025
3.2
1.5
15.8
5.8
4.7
0.6
42.6
25.9
26.3
Talent 2025 Region
Upjohn
2010
2025
3.2
7.7
22.2
10.2
2.4
5.6
17.5
8.9
3.2
8.2
22.0
8.5
21.3
22.8
22.3
28.9
7.5
43.2
30.9
12.0
34.4
30.9
5.0
41.9
64%
Note: Consensus forecast for 2025 is the average of forecasts from Georgetown, Neumark, and Upjohn.
16
The credentials demanded will be influenced by
growth as well as industry & occupation shifts.
Change in Credentials Demanded by Jobs in the Region
Percent of jobs
Change in
Degree level
2025
number of
2010
Baseline
jobs
Advanced degree
2.4
3.2
+8,400
Master's
5.6
8.2
+25,800
Bachelor's
17.5
22.0
+50,400
Associate's
8.9
8.5
+3,100
Some college (inc. certificates)
22.8
22.3
+12,400
HS diploma or GED
30.9
30.9
+22,400
Less than HS
12.0
5.0
-49,800
17
The region’s changing workforce:
today and in the future
900
800
Age 65+
700
Thousands
600
500
In-Migrants (working adults)
Age 50 to 64
400
300
200
100
Age 18 to 49
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
18
Trajectory of Student Performance
Based on Montgomery County Public Schools, Maryland
Kindergarten
65.4 %
achieve
goal
2nd Grade
63%
achieve
goal
25% achieve
goal.
3rd Grade
45%
achieve
goal
7% Achieve
goal
4th
to
8th
Grades
96%
achieved
goal
College
readiness
80%
achieved
College
Readiness
34.6 % do
not
There is some movement in scores during early years of development. However, by 3rd
grade, the vast majority of students that meet the standard then can be expected to
achieve college readiness.
19
A BETTER SYSTEM
Communication + Collaboration = Alignment
Early
Childhood
Development
K-12
Education
PostSecondary
Education
Adult
Workforce
Development
West
Michigan
Employers
How do we tie academic planning to career planning?
TALENT DOMAINS
Developing, Attracting and Retaining Talent
Education
Jobs
Place
Public
Policy
PROCESS
Illuminate
Advocate
Evaluate
Key Strategies
We Know What Works and What Must Happen
1. Kindergarten: Ready for school
2. 3rd Grade: Ready to learn
3. 12th Grade: Ready for
college/career
4. Retain and attract talent
5. Up-skill our adult workforce
WORKING GROUPS
Convening to Illuminate, Evaluate and Advocate
Common Kindergarten
Readiness Measure
Quality Pre-School for
Low Income 4-5 year
Olds
Quality Child Care for
Low Income 0-3 year
Olds
WORKING GROUPS
Convening to Illuminate, Evaluate and Advocate
Common Kindergarten
Readiness Measure
National Career
Readiness Certificate
Quality Pre-School for
Low Income 4-5 year
Olds
Structured, Paid
Internships
Quality Child Care for
Low Income 0-3 year
Olds
WORKING GROUPS
Convening to Illuminate, Evaluate and Advocate
Common Kindergarten
Readiness Measure
National Career
Readiness Certificate
Hello West Michigan
National Career Readiness Certificate
Quality Pre-School for
Low Income 4-5 year
Olds
Quality Child Care for
Low Income 0-3 year
Olds
Structured, Paid
Internships
Employer Support of the Guard and
Reserve
Work Ready Communities
TITLE
SUBTITLE
•
A Talent System
Click to edit Master text
styles M a y 3 0 , 2 0 1 2
–
Second level
•
Third level
–
Fourth level
» Fifth level
TALENT 2025 is a
catalyst to ensure an
ongoing supply of
world class talent in
West Michigan.
MCCA
July 27, 2012
About WIN
• 7 Michigan Works!
Agencies (MWAs), 8
colleges, 9 counties
• 3-year, $1.5 million
grant from the New
Economy Initiative
(made WIN possible)
Mission
To create a
comprehensive and
cohesive workforce
development system in
Southeast Michigan that
provides employers with
the talent they need for
success.
Context
Empowering innovation from every worker
must become a priority for employers, the
military, schools, and policy makers, if
America is to retain (regain?) its superior
international standing.
~Thomas Friedman, That Used To Be Us, September 2011
Context
Deloitte, Talent Edge 2020, Blueprints for the New Normal
Context
Goals
1. Labor market
intelligence to allow for
greater regional talentsystem effectiveness
2. Strengthen and sustain
an employer-driven
talent system
3. Improve institutional,
local, state, and federal
talent development
policy
Real-time snap shot
Copyright @ 2012 by Monster, Inc.
Information technology
IT facts
• 15-20,000
openings/quarter
• 64,000 current
regional IT
employees
• More IT postings
than Research
Triangle & Austin
• Faster growth job
growth than
several
key areas
WIN response: Shifting Code, IT-inthe D, Tech Council
Advanced manufacturing
0.70
Engineering labor pressure over time
0.60
Current labor pressure
for Michigan’s
engineers is around .2
or 1 engineer for every
5 job postings!
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Michigan Labor Pressure
National Labor Pressure
Labor pressure is derived from Career Builder information.
Labor pressure state comparison
State
California
Texas
Michigan
New York
Massachusetts
Washington
Ohio
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Maryland
Minnesota
Georgia
North Carolina
Florida
New Jersey
Wisconsin
Colorado
Indiana
Job Postings
265,574
95,594
73,356
67,049
66,752
65,830
62,076
58,376
52,623
48,599
42,557
41,291
38,047
37,528
36,960
36,409
34,369
32,539
27,190
Active Workforce
21,531
15,391
9,816
6,546
3,790
2,706
6,007
7,567
5,616
4,232
3,350
2,305
4,656
4,497
9,714
5,675
1,962
3,002
4,117
Active Labor Pressure
0.08
0.16
0.13
0.10
0.06
0.04
0.10
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.12
0.12
0.26
0.16
0.06
0.09
0.15
Labor pressure is derived from the number of active Career Builder resumes
over the number of online job postings shown as a three month rolling
average..
Job openings in skilled trades
(Feb 9-May 9, 2012)
Job openings by state
Michigan
2029
Texas
1521
Ohio
1310
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Detroit-Warren-…
1116
1007
887
949
Grand Rapids-…
134
Holland-Grand Haven,…
132
1901
California
Illinois
Openings in by Michigan MSA
Lansing-East Lansing,…
103
Niles-Benton Harbor,…
68
Ann Arbor, MI (MSA)
56
Kalamazoo-Portage, MI…
54
Minnesota
822
Flint, MI (MSA)
49
Iowa
810
Jackson, MI (MSA)
44
Georgia
807
Battle Creek, MI (MSA)
33
Missouri
774
Muskegon-Norton… 28
Monroe, MI (MSA)
Data source: Burning Glass technologies.
19
1
Computer Controlled Machine Tool
Operators
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2007
2010
2011
-0.2
-0.4
BLS Detroit Metro change in employment
Job Postings Detroit Metro
BLS National change in employment
Job Postings National
WIN Response: Global Engineering
Village, Skilled Trades Task Force
Lisa Katz
[email protected]
Let’s Talk

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