Potential Impact of Changes in MN Math Grad Testing for

Report
Potential Impact of Changes in MN
Math Grad Testing for Students in
Bloomington Public Schools
David Heistad, Executive Director
Research, Evaluation and Assessment
Bloomington Public School
November, 2012
Context for the Study
• Bloomington Public Schools has embarked on
a comprehensive initiative to prepare students
for graduation and college readiness.
• As part of that initiative, the REA Department
in Bloomington conducted a series of
longitudinal growth analyses in reading and
math to establish benchmarks for graduation
and college readiness.
Methodology
• ACT scores were captured for all students who
took the test in 2011 and matched by name and
student id number to the results of the 11th grade
Math MCAII used to determine initial graduation
status.
• Using an equal percentile method, the MCAII
Math scores were linked with ACT Math scores.
• Using MN Office of Higher Ed data on the typical
ACT scores of admitted students, classification
accuracy analysis was conducted using MCAII
Math scores as the predictor.
Distribution of 2011 Bloomington
ACT Scores
College Eligible
but not On track to graduate based on MCA >= 1150
On track to graduate
Based on Math Grad & College Eligible
2011 Bloomington ACT Math Results
Number of 11th Grade Students = 751
8%
14%
Didn't take ACT
42%
ACT 14-17
4-year college (18-24)
U of M (25-28)
Carleton (29-36)
26%
10%
Results
• Passing the MCAII Math Test in 11th grade with a score of
1150 or higher is equivalent to an ACT math score of 22
• According to MN Office of Higher Ed, 25% of students
accepted to MN 4-year colleges had an ACT math score of
18 or lower (e.g., Bemidji, St. Cloud, Moorhead)
• Using ACT math score of 18 as “4-year college eligible”, it
was determined that 26% of Bloomington Public Schools
11th graders who were “4-year college eligible” did not pass
the MCAII Math Test in Grade 11. This would impact 104
families of students who took the ACT test (i.e., if the Grad
Testing Law reverted to high stake Math testing with a cut
score equivalent to the MCAII Math = 1150).
Results Continued
• Of those students who re-took the MCAII
Math tests in 12th grade, 25% passed the
MCAII Math test with 3 re-testing tries.
• This would still leave about 75 families where
the 12th grade student had an ACT high
enough to be eligible for acceptance in a four
year college but would be denied a diploma
based on the MCAII Math test.
• Details follow:
Equal Percentile Linking
• The correlation between MCAII Math and the
ACT Math test scores is high: .856
Bloomington Students who took MCAII
Math and ACT Math in 11th Grade
Mean =23
Mean = 1153
Equal Percentile Linking
1150 = 22 ACT Math
Classification Accuracy in Predicting
“4yr College Readiness”
26% of College Eligible Students Failed 11th Grade MCA Math
Selected MN Colleges where 25% of Accepted
Students have ACT Math Scores of 18 or lower
•
•
•
•
•
Saint Mary’s U of M
St. Cloud State University
Minnesota State University Moorhead
Bemidji State University
University of MN Crookston
Rationale’ for 25th Percentile of ACT as
“college eligible”
• If the independent probability of getting into
one of these schools with an ACT of 18 = .25,
then the probability of getting accepted into
one of these schools is 1-(.75)5 =
approximately ¾.
2011 Bloomington Grad Retests
On-course to graduate and 4-year college
eligibility based on current Grad Rule
• The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or
CALT) Spring scale scores for reading that predict
“on-course” for MN High School Graduation and
MN 4-year college eligibility based on equal
percentile linkages for students continuously
enrolled in Bloomington from grade 2 (2006-07)
to grade 7 (2011-12).
• These scores were cross-validated on 2
independent cohorts of continuously enrolled
students.
Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate and 4-year College
based on CALT Reading linked to
ACT Composite Score
NWEA Reading RIT Score
270
ACT = 29
250
ACT = 25
230
ACT = 19
210
190
170
150
On-Course to Graduate
On Course 4yr College
On-course U of M
MCA II Proficiency
On-course Carleton
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
174
190
206
184
216
185
200
214
194
224
191
208
221
203
231
196
214
227
209
238
200
218
232
214
245
203
220
235
219
246
On-course to graduate and 4-year college
eligibility based on Grad Rule reverting to Grade
11 Math MCA at 1145 or higher
• The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or CALT)
Spring scale scores for math that predict “on-course”
for MN High School Graduation and MN 4-year college
eligibility based on equal percentile linkages for
students continuously enrolled in Bloomington from
grade 2 (2006-07) to grade 7 (2011-12).
• These scores were cross-validated on 2 independent
cohorts of continuously enrolled students.
• This analysis assumes that students can increase 5
MCA scale score points with remediation and re-testing
in 12th grade.
NWEA Reading RIT Score
Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate* and 4-year College
based on CALT Math linked to
ACT Composite Score
270
ACT = 29
250
ACT = 25
230
ACT = 19
210
190
170
*On-Course to Graduate (MCA
11th grade =1145)
On Course 4yr College
On-course U of M
MCA II Proficiency
On-course Carleton
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
197
206
219
226
229
235
193
201
190
212
202
210
202
223
214
223
213
234
220
232
223
246
224
235
229
254
230
241
234
257
*Based on reverting to high stakes 11th Grade Math test with retests

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