Report

Potential Impact of Changes in MN Math Grad Testing for Students in Bloomington Public Schools David Heistad, Executive Director Research, Evaluation and Assessment Bloomington Public School November, 2012 Context for the Study • Bloomington Public Schools has embarked on a comprehensive initiative to prepare students for graduation and college readiness. • As part of that initiative, the REA Department in Bloomington conducted a series of longitudinal growth analyses in reading and math to establish benchmarks for graduation and college readiness. Methodology • ACT scores were captured for all students who took the test in 2011 and matched by name and student id number to the results of the 11th grade Math MCAII used to determine initial graduation status. • Using an equal percentile method, the MCAII Math scores were linked with ACT Math scores. • Using MN Office of Higher Ed data on the typical ACT scores of admitted students, classification accuracy analysis was conducted using MCAII Math scores as the predictor. Distribution of 2011 Bloomington ACT Scores College Eligible but not On track to graduate based on MCA >= 1150 On track to graduate Based on Math Grad & College Eligible 2011 Bloomington ACT Math Results Number of 11th Grade Students = 751 8% 14% Didn't take ACT 42% ACT 14-17 4-year college (18-24) U of M (25-28) Carleton (29-36) 26% 10% Results • Passing the MCAII Math Test in 11th grade with a score of 1150 or higher is equivalent to an ACT math score of 22 • According to MN Office of Higher Ed, 25% of students accepted to MN 4-year colleges had an ACT math score of 18 or lower (e.g., Bemidji, St. Cloud, Moorhead) • Using ACT math score of 18 as “4-year college eligible”, it was determined that 26% of Bloomington Public Schools 11th graders who were “4-year college eligible” did not pass the MCAII Math Test in Grade 11. This would impact 104 families of students who took the ACT test (i.e., if the Grad Testing Law reverted to high stake Math testing with a cut score equivalent to the MCAII Math = 1150). Results Continued • Of those students who re-took the MCAII Math tests in 12th grade, 25% passed the MCAII Math test with 3 re-testing tries. • This would still leave about 75 families where the 12th grade student had an ACT high enough to be eligible for acceptance in a four year college but would be denied a diploma based on the MCAII Math test. • Details follow: Equal Percentile Linking • The correlation between MCAII Math and the ACT Math test scores is high: .856 Bloomington Students who took MCAII Math and ACT Math in 11th Grade Mean =23 Mean = 1153 Equal Percentile Linking 1150 = 22 ACT Math Classification Accuracy in Predicting “4yr College Readiness” 26% of College Eligible Students Failed 11th Grade MCA Math Selected MN Colleges where 25% of Accepted Students have ACT Math Scores of 18 or lower • • • • • Saint Mary’s U of M St. Cloud State University Minnesota State University Moorhead Bemidji State University University of MN Crookston Rationale’ for 25th Percentile of ACT as “college eligible” • If the independent probability of getting into one of these schools with an ACT of 18 = .25, then the probability of getting accepted into one of these schools is 1-(.75)5 = approximately ¾. 2011 Bloomington Grad Retests On-course to graduate and 4-year college eligibility based on current Grad Rule • The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or CALT) Spring scale scores for reading that predict “on-course” for MN High School Graduation and MN 4-year college eligibility based on equal percentile linkages for students continuously enrolled in Bloomington from grade 2 (2006-07) to grade 7 (2011-12). • These scores were cross-validated on 2 independent cohorts of continuously enrolled students. Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate and 4-year College based on CALT Reading linked to ACT Composite Score NWEA Reading RIT Score 270 ACT = 29 250 ACT = 25 230 ACT = 19 210 190 170 150 On-Course to Graduate On Course 4yr College On-course U of M MCA II Proficiency On-course Carleton Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 174 190 206 184 216 185 200 214 194 224 191 208 221 203 231 196 214 227 209 238 200 218 232 214 245 203 220 235 219 246 On-course to graduate and 4-year college eligibility based on Grad Rule reverting to Grade 11 Math MCA at 1145 or higher • The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or CALT) Spring scale scores for math that predict “on-course” for MN High School Graduation and MN 4-year college eligibility based on equal percentile linkages for students continuously enrolled in Bloomington from grade 2 (2006-07) to grade 7 (2011-12). • These scores were cross-validated on 2 independent cohorts of continuously enrolled students. • This analysis assumes that students can increase 5 MCA scale score points with remediation and re-testing in 12th grade. NWEA Reading RIT Score Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate* and 4-year College based on CALT Math linked to ACT Composite Score 270 ACT = 29 250 ACT = 25 230 ACT = 19 210 190 170 *On-Course to Graduate (MCA 11th grade =1145) On Course 4yr College On-course U of M MCA II Proficiency On-course Carleton Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 197 206 219 226 229 235 193 201 190 212 202 210 202 223 214 223 213 234 220 232 223 246 224 235 229 254 230 241 234 257 *Based on reverting to high stakes 11th Grade Math test with retests