2013_Feb05_AM_Gurney_213

Report
How fossil fuel CO2
uncertainty impacts estimates
of carbon exchange and
variability
Kevin Gurney, Yang Song, Jianhua Huang, Kevin Coltin, Alex Garden
School of Life Sciences/School of Sustainability, Global Institute of Sustainability,
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85281, USA
Introduction

A focus on power plant uncertainty:
More available data, particularly in US
 Large proportion of total (~40%)


Examine US and global cases

Examine National inventories - total spread

Descriptive statistical characteristics of spans

Impacts of national span on high resolution fossil fuel
CO2 data product (FFDAS) and atmospheric CO2
Inversions
Vulcan
www.vulcan.project.asu.edu
Gurney et al., Env. Sci & Tech, 2009
Hestia
See poster 217,
Today
FFDAS+
Uncertainty quantification in all of these data products remains challenging
US Power Plants (almost 40% of US FFCO2)
Comparing EPA derived data (CEMs primarily)
to
DOE/EIA derived data (fuel consumption-based calculation)
US Power Plants continued
• Examine hourly data where one can isolate the “methods” used.
• CEMs is primary, but there are 6 alternative methods
• Require that every hour of a month be 100% single method
• Aggregate to month for comparison to DOE/EIA
4500
CEMs
4000
3500
Frequency
3000
2500
mean: -1.8%
2000
Mean: -1.8%
1500
1000
500
0
-98% -88% -78% -68% -58% -48% -38% -28% -18%
-7%
3%
IRD (%)
aka “signed bias”
13%
23%
33%
43%
53%
63%
73%
83%
93%
US Power Plants continued
15.0%
Average IRD
(%)
lo/hi quartile
IRD (%)
Data (%)
CO2 (%)
-1.8%
-5 / +7
25.7%
64.4%
9.4%
-21 / +43
0.4%
0.01%
alternative
0.0% 2
-5.7%
-10 / +10
0.6%
0.2%
alternative 3
-11.8%
-31 / +10
0.2%
0.06%
alternative 4
9.3%
-3 / +66
0.2%
0.2%
-10.0% 5
alternative
-4.3%
-10 / +9
61.6%
35.2%
alternative 6
NS
NS
NS
NS
Method/type
10.0%
CEMs
5.0%
IRD (%)
alternative 1
-5.0%
-15.0%
O-00
A-01
N-01 M-02
D-02
J-03
J-04
A-04
F-05
S-05
M-06 O-06
A-07
N-07
J-08
D-08
J-09
J-10
Time (date)
Why?
• Are the CEMs measurements biased lo/hi?
• Are the Fuel consumption estimates biased hi/lo?
……Stay tuned….
See poster
221, Today
Global Power Plants

Currently the only available global
dataset is CARMA. That includes
more than 60,000 power plants
worldwide.

CARMA provides plant location and
estimated CO2 emission for each
power plant.

Statistical model based on WEPP &
US data
We analyze national publicly disclosed data relative to model prediction to
assess accuracy.
Global Power Plants continued
Country
USA
Canada
India
S Africa
Australia
United Kingdom
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
location bias
(km)
~0
67.7
24.3
10.5
50.0
26.1
6.1
10.0
4.0
Total emit
signed bias
(%)
5.9%
-28%
2.2%
-3.1%
NA
10%
-26%
37%
-27%
Mean emit
signed bias
(%)
-8.3%
-25%
2.7%
0.3%
NA
2.4%
-2.9%
-7.8%
-7.8%
Mean emit
unsigned bias
(%)
17%
95%
19%
7.0%
NA
42%
51%
73%
52%
18.3
8.4%
13%
57%
To the extent we want to utilize remote platforms to calibrate or monitor large
point sources, these distance biases are unacceptable
Use of power plants as “standalone” data sources in global FFCO2 estimation
requires better accuracy
Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission Inventories

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)
 UN energy data from annual energy surveys

International Energy Agency (IEA)
 Annual IEA energy surveys and UN energy data for non-member
nations
 Sectoral approach (bottom up) vs. Reference approach (top down)

Energy Information Administration (EIA)
 EIA’s review of National reports

British Petroleum (BP)
 BP’s review of National reports
Macknick’s Harmonized Database
Macknick, J. (2011) Energy and CO2 emission data
uncertainties. Carbon Manage. 2, 189−205.
 Energy Sources
 Survey (IEA, CDIAC) vs National Reports (EIA, BP)
 Categories
 International bunkers, biomass waste, cement production, gas
flare…
 Conversions
 Calorific value
 Emission factors
 Units
 Cubic meters vs feet
 Short ton vs tonnes
 Etc.
Teragrams of carbon
Teragrams of carbon
Time Mean
Percentage span = 7.7%
Time Mean
Percentage span = 7.6%
Year
World emission unadjusted
Year
World emission harmonized
(Cement production from CDIAC;
Gas flaring from EIA;
no wastes, renewables and land-use emissions)
---harmonized data from Macknick, 2011
BP
Algeria
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Iran
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Korea (South)
Mexico
Poland
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Spain
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
EIA
Algeria
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Iran
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Korea (South)
Mexico
Poland
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Spain
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
10.60%
6.29%
6.72%
5.95%
6.16%
4.85%
0.98%
-2.45%
-4.66%
-2.77%
-3.35%
-2.85%
-0.82%
-4.78%
-4.03%
1.64%
1.65%
4.37%
5.26%
3.14%
2.71%
1.32%
1.72%
1.33%
2.86%
3.28%
2.09%
3.80%
-0.36%
2.10%
13.31%
10.89%
10.61%
7.93%
7.17%
7.12%
8.97%
9.39%
8.12%
8.23%
8.02%
7.98%
7.04%
6.08%
6.76%
6.98%
6.06%
8.15%
8.37%
9.48%
9.03%
9.67%
9.57%
7.98%
10.23%
10.25%
10.50%
9.43%
9.93%
11.55%
7.84%
7.66%
7.34%
7.89%
9.05%
7.63%
4.92%
6.65%
8.60%
9.11%
5.99%
6.23%
3.33%
3.53%
4.26%
10.90%
9.42%
9.22%
7.93%
7.22%
9.04%
8.39%
11.57%
11.71%
9.06%
8.24%
8.15%
8.92%
7.73%
7.66%
5.35%
5.27%
5.46%
4.87%
5.11%
4.98%
5.29%
6.61%
6.77%
5.80%
6.50%
6.51%
5.96%
6.52%
7.12%
-3.98%
-4.86%
-5.85%
-6.40%
-3.42%
-4.60%
-4.29%
-7.37%
-5.36%
-5.99%
-4.41%
-4.35%
-3.32%
-2.91%
-4.89%
1.55%
-1.46%
2.02%
5.41%
1.91%
1.97%
6.34%
5.64%
8.17%
8.90%
8.79%
9.04%
6.39%
8.38%
1.70%
0.09%
1.10%
-2.60%
3.52%
6.82%
7.19%
3.04%
4.88%
6.05%
5.85%
8.72%
8.40%
5.98%
10.59%
7.79%
6.16%
4.87%
6.05%
5.36%
5.57%
5.63%
5.48%
7.28%
7.56%
7.69%
7.07%
6.70%
7.56%
7.29%
7.17%
7.38%
7.59%
7.63%
8.21%
8.16%
7.76%
8.12%
8.41%
8.06%
8.68%
7.29%
8.85%
8.23%
9.82%
9.31%
-2.70%
-0.27%
3.52%
3.64%
4.42%
6.07%
4.62%
-2.58%
2.24%
-1.91%
-1.98%
3.43%
2.65%
4.53%
-0.38%
13.14%
11.87%
12.10%
11.72%
13.79%
16.03%
19.17%
17.19%
16.09%
16.37%
16.53%
18.06%
17.55%
21.26%
21.65%
-8.51%
-4.95%
-2.96%
-3.79%
-0.20%
-0.08%
0.65%
0.76%
2.49%
1.74%
1.36%
3.29%
3.17%
0.82%
2.05%
3.20%
3.27%
5.73%
5.25%
3.59%
3.67%
4.95%
3.12%
5.29%
6.38%
6.56%
5.34%
5.99%
5.88%
6.03%
5.94%
5.40%
7.82%
6.07%
4.17%
4.23%
4.87%
3.12%
2.28%
3.20%
3.78%
3.40%
3.29%
2.56%
2.19%
10.07%
8.40%
13.12%
17.74%
15.98%
21.20%
24.07%
22.33%
16.08%
17.14%
13.50%
15.87%
16.34%
16.76%
17.28%
6.59%
6.85%
6.71%
9.25%
12.15%
10.82%
10.67%
10.33%
8.97%
9.32%
14.42%
11.29%
9.09%
8.80%
9.03%
6.49%
8.72%
7.01%
7.58%
9.33%
10.37%
11.86%
12.00%
11.36%
11.29%
11.05%
10.31%
9.16%
9.51%
8.95%
10.78%
8.71%
9.83%
8.94%
8.00%
9.27%
8.47%
17.30%
16.39%
16.43%
14.83%
16.39%
16.51%
16.66%
16.49%
4.72%
5.05%
5.48%
5.13%
3.50%
5.26%
7.75%
7.55%
9.33%
6.64%
6.88%
5.06%
4.87%
7.22%
8.10%
10.10%
11.14%
8.81%
6.82%
7.50%
7.43%
9.08%
9.70%
8.57%
10.78%
8.14%
7.71%
8.28%
9.33%
6.99%
3.07%
-2.31%
-1.62%
-7.10%
-4.94%
2.28%
2.57%
5.65%
7.21%
7.93%
4.74%
-0.41%
3.09%
1.60%
5.25%
6.66%
6.75%
5.95%
6.44%
6.10%
6.64%
6.66%
6.54%
7.08%
6.65%
6.85%
6.88%
7.27%
7.58%
6.98%
9.93%
8.99%
9.22%
9.82%
10.29%
9.43%
9.77%
9.91%
9.49%
8.80%
9.08%
9.21%
9.38%
9.20%
9.44%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
10.39%
5.12%
6.55%
7.04%
4.79%
3.41%
0.98%
-3.16%
-4.20%
-4.56%
-6.45%
-8.77%
-9.77%
-8.47%
-4.25%
0.10%
0.30%
-1.47%
-1.19%
-1.65%
3.77%
1.94%
6.12%
5.28%
7.79%
6.12%
6.01%
7.03%
7.43%
6.20%
4.60%
8.82%
8.61%
8.09%
6.54%
6.53%
4.76%
4.94%
5.34%
4.13%
4.26%
6.18%
4.84%
6.20%
7.91%
4.50%
4.18%
5.17%
5.59%
5.08%
6.23%
5.96%
7.74%
4.07%
3.08%
4.14%
3.86%
6.18%
6.70%
5.03%
-1.25%
-1.16%
0.67%
-4.21%
-6.95%
-1.43%
-2.23%
-4.67%
-6.46%
-4.25%
1.87%
2.13%
6.67%
5.17%
2.11%
-0.38%
-0.28%
1.43%
0.69%
0.79%
3.00%
2.48%
4.22%
4.78%
3.23%
3.77%
3.17%
3.21%
3.67%
6.44%
-1.19%
-0.25%
-1.08%
0.71%
-1.55%
0.59%
-0.39%
0.30%
1.33%
1.63%
1.32%
2.24%
2.33%
2.39%
2.13%
-3.52%
-2.09%
-1.41%
5.93%
-2.91%
-2.40%
-0.82%
-0.92%
-0.40%
0.71%
-2.60%
-3.97%
-2.41%
-1.79%
-0.16%
-0.96%
1.56%
2.18%
-1.08%
2.82%
-1.51%
3.28%
2.98%
-0.54%
-4.03%
-2.21%
-2.30%
-4.43%
-2.49%
3.65%
1.38%
3.23%
-3.30%
-3.07%
-4.69%
1.68%
-1.32%
1.84%
-2.10%
-0.94%
1.26%
0.22%
-0.80%
1.43%
0.47%
1.51%
2.41%
1.74%
1.66%
1.31%
0.71%
1.88%
1.52%
1.61%
0.92%
1.59%
2.38%
1.47%
1.49%
1.08%
-4.17%
-3.87%
-4.26%
-5.30%
-5.24%
-3.71%
-4.46%
-2.87%
-1.68%
-1.48%
-2.14%
-0.65%
-0.99%
-1.70%
-1.02%
2.84%
3.36%
-11.01%
-13.46%
-2.41%
-5.75%
-7.45%
11.37%
8.29%
7.19%
4.87%
-2.82%
0.28%
-3.18%
-3.70%
3.08%
4.13%
2.24%
1.91%
-1.59%
-1.83%
-0.12%
1.16%
-2.14%
-2.05%
-2.34%
-1.25%
-2.25%
0.36%
-1.85%
-2.58%
-1.12%
-1.02%
-1.01%
-1.87%
-1.64%
-0.32%
0.11%
2.72%
1.32%
0.65%
-0.02%
-1.50%
-0.70%
0.87%
-2.25%
-0.72%
-2.16%
-6.55%
-1.34%
-1.03%
-1.03%
4.52%
-0.64%
-5.23%
-4.20%
-3.46%
-2.10%
-2.96%
-3.09%
-1.33%
-0.92%
1.39%
0.57%
0.91%
-1.06%
0.70%
3.56%
3.34%
1.34%
2.83%
3.43%
5.67%
4.77%
4.37%
-3.83%
-7.73%
-8.62%
-5.37%
-5.17%
5.18%
2.75%
2.21%
2.08%
3.74%
1.12%
7.45%
11.52%
9.98%
6.47%
7.75%
3.67%
7.06%
4.11%
3.10%
7.69%
3.05%
6.78%
8.41%
11.87%
9.35%
8.56%
8.23%
8.12%
9.08%
2.82%
3.63%
1.78%
-0.12%
-0.05%
2.90%
2.72%
4.34%
5.73%
6.30%
6.26%
6.57%
6.76%
6.77%
7.02%
-3.81%
0.23%
1.47%
6.22%
8.67%
7.21%
7.62%
4.04%
7.72%
3.12%
7.81%
8.20%
3.54%
2.98%
3.04%
-2.77%
-2.13%
-2.06%
-3.15%
0.17%
0.19%
-0.02%
-0.33%
-5.72%
-5.35%
-4.15%
-2.61%
-2.05%
1.36%
-0.95%
-1.59%
-2.31%
-3.39%
-2.88%
-2.94%
-1.41%
-1.90%
-2.02%
-2.24%
-2.36%
-1.02%
-0.70%
-1.01%
0.94%
0.85%
-7.30%
-1.01%
-0.74%
3.12%
0.97%
1.76%
3.10%
1.27%
2.79%
0.29%
1.88%
3.88%
3.83%
7.21%
2.92%
0.05%
2.54%
1.92%
0.96%
2.50%
3.01%
1.91%
2.38%
1.22%
1.78%
2.88%
2.67%
3.78%
3.77%
3.45%
0.60%
-0.44%
-0.47%
-0.11%
0.32%
-0.57%
-0.26%
-0.32%
-0.27%
-0.63%
-0.43%
-0.13%
-0.07%
-0.16%
-0.12%
CDIAC
Algeria
1.13% Australia
9.22% Brazil
11.84% Canada
4.99% China
9.48% France
6.24% Germany
-4.09% India
-4.06% Indonesia
5.05% Iran
8.22% Italy
9.50% Japan
-0.52% Kazakhstan
21.98% Korea (South)
-0.33% Mexico
7.17% Poland
3.51% Russia
16.81% Saudi Arabia
9.03% South Africa
9.44% Spain
17.79% Taiwan
7.69% Thailand
5.77% Turkey
2.66% Ukraine
7.43% United Kingdom
9.71% United States
-3.11%
IEA_S
Algeria
7.20% Australia
6.74% Brazil
1.19% Canada
1.73% China
5.03% France
3.00% Germany
-0.11% India
4.19% Indonesia
-0.84% Iran
2.14% Italy
-0.36% Japan
-10.15% Kazakhstan
-0.89% Korea (South)
-0.02% Mexico
-3.82% Poland
2.90% Russia
7.64% Saudi Arabia
8.40% South Africa
5.96% Spain
3.54% Taiwan
-0.18% Thailand
2.71% Turkey
8.93% Ukraine
3.09% United Kingdom
-0.05% United States
-4.58%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-0.96%
2.39%
6.45%
9.56%
14.02%
8.31%
22.22%
28.74%
29.82%
29.73%
30.24%
27.98%
26.33%
34.83%
24.35%
22.49%
6.51%
6.41%
5.71%
4.49%
6.38%
3.16%
4.18%
-3.43%
-4.19%
-7.59%
-6.29%
-5.47%
-7.07%
-5.54%
-5.79%
-5.92%
-7.18%
-7.45%
-6.94%
-2.07%
-1.28%
-1.00%
-4.75%
-5.41%
-4.99%
-4.23%
-4.79%
-5.27%
-4.51%
-4.55%
-5.78%
-6.55%
-0.09%
1.51%
-4.85%
-5.84%
-6.82%
-7.02%
-8.68%
-10.42%
-3.86%
-4.69%
-5.69%
-4.88%
-5.20%
-5.61%
-5.81%
-5.53%
-0.49%
-1.49%
-1.54%
-0.55%
-0.16%
-1.71%
-4.77%
-1.02%
0.47%
0.50%
-2.20%
-1.96%
-3.19%
-2.93%
-3.61%
-3.91%
0.79%
2.19%
0.56%
3.38%
2.81%
-0.87%
0.21%
-6.22%
-6.74%
-4.14%
-4.13%
-3.96%
-4.05%
-3.81%
-4.85%
-5.39%
0.12%
-0.84%
-0.07%
-1.16%
-0.61%
-1.12%
-0.80%
-4.47%
-4.37%
-3.84%
-4.46%
-5.04%
-5.24%
-5.05%
-5.64%
-4.76%
10.57%
10.48%
11.05%
7.59%
11.76%
11.28%
11.40%
11.92%
11.86%
11.49%
12.20%
13.80%
11.13%
10.81%
10.09%
9.46%
6.78%
7.01%
3.56%
-0.59%
0.79%
1.74%
-17.85%
-14.31%
-11.14%
-10.08%
-9.84%
-11.66%
-5.51%
-7.14%
-8.85%
-1.56%
3.04%
-4.58%
8.56%
1.64%
-0.17%
-2.00%
1.85%
-3.31%
-1.64%
-1.70%
-4.05%
-3.18%
-2.10%
-5.30%
-5.05%
-3.57%
0.98%
0.66%
-0.37%
-0.85%
-1.55%
-1.48%
-2.06%
-3.50%
-2.79%
-2.81%
-3.16%
-3.33%
-3.22%
-3.19%
-2.63%
-3.92%
3.30%
2.16%
2.62%
2.86%
3.10%
3.14%
3.48%
-0.63%
-0.57%
-0.42%
-0.19%
-0.73%
0.30%
-0.23%
0.04%
-3.59%
1.06%
-0.35%
5.01%
2.12%
-3.84%
1.63%
-0.58%
-2.87%
-3.47%
6.67%
4.50%
0.24%
3.03%
0.96%
0.77%
12.24%
-8.41%
-6.59%
-6.96%
-6.45%
-6.04%
-5.58%
-6.62%
-8.12%
-7.49%
-6.03%
-6.66%
-5.88%
-6.83%
-6.29%
-8.81%
-9.14%
19.03%
12.80%
11.18%
12.13%
9.78%
8.13%
3.99%
0.99%
-1.98%
0.64%
-1.58%
-0.92%
-0.42%
-1.57%
-2.75%
0.37%
-1.34%
0.16%
-0.24%
1.94%
0.63%
-0.28%
-0.78%
-2.36%
-1.06%
1.00%
0.90%
1.03%
0.44%
-0.60%
-0.18%
-0.26%
-0.21%
-1.24%
-4.70%
-4.18%
-3.37%
-1.12%
-3.78%
-5.74%
-5.99%
-5.40%
-6.12%
-5.74%
-6.22%
-5.49%
-5.43%
-5.24%
21.59%
27.59%
21.05%
0.16%
2.52%
-13.32%
-19.32%
-14.74%
1.37%
-1.59%
1.21%
-3.27%
-3.94%
-3.61%
-3.26%
-3.55%
7.20%
9.13%
8.50%
3.64%
2.75%
2.00%
2.94%
3.27%
1.42%
1.07%
-1.97%
-1.77%
-0.57%
-0.05%
-0.59%
-0.17%
-2.04%
-3.37%
-1.77%
-0.53%
0.80%
-2.97%
-3.22%
-6.17%
-7.29%
-7.58%
-7.15%
-7.70%
-6.95%
-6.96%
-6.68%
-7.16%
-0.67%
-1.68%
-2.37%
-2.59%
-2.75%
-2.50%
-2.72%
-9.13%
-11.92%
-9.39%
-11.12%
-11.82%
-9.91%
-8.94%
-8.91%
-10.20%
10.20%
8.77%
8.26%
7.90%
6.86%
7.52%
6.91%
6.39%
8.71%
10.21%
8.71%
7.79%
7.73%
5.17%
4.82%
4.20%
-2.85%
-0.32%
0.52%
0.32%
-0.15%
-0.61%
-0.31%
-1.44%
-1.27%
-1.99%
-2.19%
-1.97%
-2.68%
-1.00%
-1.49%
-3.12%
3.88%
2.47%
0.92%
3.76%
8.88%
-3.52%
-3.35%
-2.51%
-4.73%
-4.48%
-3.58%
-3.00%
-2.86%
-2.88%
-3.91%
-5.70%
0.16%
-1.51%
-1.12%
0.18%
-0.34%
-1.02%
-0.73%
-2.93%
-2.71%
-2.29%
-2.85%
-2.92%
-2.89%
-3.04%
-1.27%
-3.12%
-4.28%
-1.64%
-1.84%
-2.54%
-3.46%
-3.01%
-3.12%
-2.96%
-2.83%
-3.35%
-2.75%
-3.42%
-3.41%
-3.17%
-3.31%
-3.26%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-13.06%
-8.34%
-11.57%
-13.78%
-14.39%
-9.88%
-14.17%
-13.88%
-12.86%
-12.78%
-11.53%
-9.93%
-9.78%
-11.52%
-10.37%
-4.18%
-5.42%
-4.42%
-3.16%
-4.38%
-5.56%
-3.02%
-1.22%
-0.49%
1.75%
1.06%
1.25%
1.53%
0.82%
0.21%
-10.22%
0.79%
-7.89%
-8.76%
-8.80%
-9.20%
-8.85%
-8.44%
-6.65%
-6.46%
-5.57%
-4.98%
-4.95%
-5.39%
-4.36%
-4.53%
-4.71%
-5.08%
-4.55%
-5.23%
-2.95%
-2.78%
-2.29%
-2.39%
-2.64%
-2.20%
-2.77%
-3.12%
-1.78%
-3.10%
-4.01%
-4.42%
-5.13%
-1.02%
-2.83%
-1.91%
-2.95%
-1.13%
0.20%
-1.62%
2.72%
-0.56%
-1.55%
-1.61%
-2.98%
-4.01%
-4.46%
-3.47%
-1.97%
-1.48%
-4.87%
-6.39%
-4.14%
-5.27%
-5.74%
-3.92%
-4.46%
-3.40%
-2.76%
-3.42%
-4.05%
-3.85%
-4.41%
-3.93%
-4.49%
-4.49%
-2.88%
-2.46%
-2.54%
-2.66%
-1.76%
-2.81%
-2.72%
-1.70%
-2.83%
-3.33%
-2.47%
-2.25%
-1.54%
-2.45%
-1.68%
-2.42%
-2.33%
-2.61%
-2.79%
-4.41%
-3.28%
-2.62%
-3.92%
-3.10%
-3.13%
-3.58%
-3.13%
-3.39%
-3.82%
-4.41%
-3.32%
-4.19%
-6.94%
-6.05%
-6.86%
-6.93%
-5.63%
-2.65%
3.55%
1.90%
1.80%
2.13%
0.79%
1.66%
0.23%
-0.34%
0.51%
-0.73%
-0.37%
0.38%
-0.09%
-0.06%
0.79%
1.52%
-1.24%
-0.56%
-1.08%
-1.76%
-2.54%
-2.98%
-1.66%
-3.43%
-0.93%
-0.13%
-3.21%
-2.78%
-2.40%
-3.51%
-2.90%
-2.70%
-2.86%
-2.81%
-3.97%
-3.49%
-2.91%
-3.06%
-3.17%
-2.99%
-2.25%
-3.68%
-3.68%
-3.00%
-3.48%
-3.19%
-3.51%
-4.17%
-3.89%
-2.54%
-3.78%
-4.17%
-2.49%
-4.30%
-5.12%
-4.16%
-4.63%
-2.72%
-0.47%
-1.23%
0.70%
3.16%
-0.14%
-2.79%
0.67%
-4.46%
-6.33%
-8.85%
-6.57%
-3.66%
-6.38%
-4.72%
-2.12%
-4.58%
-3.25%
-4.61%
-3.45%
-3.37%
-3.26%
-4.40%
-5.95%
-6.21%
-4.99%
-3.60%
-5.59%
-6.20%
-5.25%
-6.05%
-5.01%
-7.28%
-4.68%
-4.13%
-3.80%
-3.34%
-4.18%
-3.69%
-2.33%
-2.78%
-1.49%
-2.89%
-1.86%
-2.94%
-3.22%
-2.35%
-1.26%
-1.43%
-2.21%
-3.23%
-1.63%
-1.60%
-2.25%
-2.48%
-2.53%
-3.75%
-2.26%
-1.96%
-3.70%
-2.84%
-2.58%
-2.20%
-2.63%
-2.34%
-2.20%
-2.96%
-3.58%
-0.93%
-1.05%
-2.18%
-1.14%
-0.81%
0.29%
0.53%
-0.13%
-0.68%
-1.89%
-1.36%
-0.82%
-0.33%
-16.31%
-15.77%
-14.84%
-8.34%
-8.70%
-7.86%
-5.13%
-6.22%
-11.00%
-10.78%
-10.04%
-10.37%
-12.02%
-11.89%
-10.28%
-10.50%
-16.01%
-18.66%
-20.76%
-17.43%
-16.69%
-16.37%
-13.12%
-17.77%
-16.72%
-19.77%
-15.66%
-16.05%
-17.65%
-17.61%
-18.90%
-18.80%
-4.36%
-5.21%
-5.21%
-4.53%
-6.43%
-6.63%
-6.99%
-6.13%
-5.34%
-5.54%
-5.40%
-5.07%
-5.11%
-4.95%
-5.08%
-4.25%
-3.93%
-5.39%
-5.70%
-7.62%
-8.12%
-8.15%
-8.07%
-7.23%
-7.62%
-6.07%
-7.43%
-7.77%
-7.53%
-6.72%
-6.53%
-6.84%
-7.15%
-6.70%
-6.36%
-5.60%
-6.04%
-7.35%
-8.24%
-7.66%
-7.08%
-7.78%
-7.78%
-7.02%
-7.06%
-9.55%
-8.87%
-8.55%
-4.23%
-5.19%
-4.49%
-3.45%
-3.34%
-4.38%
-5.15%
-4.62%
-3.18%
-3.63%
-2.47%
-2.81%
-2.78%
-5.29%
-3.71%
-2.82%
-3.20%
-2.93%
-2.29%
-4.24%
-5.90%
-4.07%
-5.67%
-6.88%
-7.92%
-6.48%
-6.48%
-3.93%
-6.03%
-7.32%
-4.46%
-4.54%
-4.69%
-5.25%
-5.19%
-6.02%
-5.89%
-5.79%
-5.29%
-4.52%
-4.79%
-4.26%
-4.19%
-4.16%
-4.81%
-4.99%
-5.42%
-4.63%
-3.51%
-4.04%
-4.01%
-3.60%
-3.39%
-2.40%
-2.86%
-3.58%
-3.38%
-2.22%
-3.75%
-3.02%
-3.32%
-3.53%
-3.68%
-3.89%
Implications – atmospheric CO2 inversion
Run “hi” and “lo” through TransCom 3 Level 2 inversions
• Scales the global fossil total
• No change in spatial pattern
RESULTS:
Total Land Uptake for the decade of the 1990’s
“hi”…………………………
-1.3 GtC/year
“lo”…………………………
-0.89 GtC/year
Total Land Uptake for the decade of the 2000’s
“hi”………………………..
-2.3 GtC/year
“lo”………………………..
-1.8 GtC/year
High resolution inversion underway – implications will be more significant for
some global regions.
= “hi”
= “lo”
= error range
Impact on FFDAS
Span as prior uncertainty (diagonal cov matrix only)
-200%
0%
200%
Conclusions
 Exploration of fossil fuel uncertainty remains challenging
 The single largest contributor and sector previously considered the
best known – power plant emissions:
 US: potentially large error at facility level. Source of bias being
investigated. I think we can solve.
 CARMA database: requires revision. Underway - VENTUS
 Discrepancies among national FFCO2 inventories varies through time
and by country, even after “harmonization”
 The median percentage span averaged over countries and time is around
12.5% (mean = 15%)
 Impact of the span on fossil fuel CO2 on the inversion results is large:
difference exceeds the current “within” inversion error.
 Use of this as national uncertainty has significant impact on the
FFDAS result
 ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS WILL HELP (OF COURSE), BUT
IT ISN’T ENOUGH – THE DATA PRODUCTS MUST IMPROVE
Time mean Percentage Span (%)

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