Pristatymo pavadinimas

Report
0
POWER SECTOR OF LITHUANIA
and OVERVIEW OF OPPORTUNITIES
Rymantas Juozaitis
Director General
Lietuvos energija AB
PAN BALTIC PPP CONFERENCE-SEMINAR
Vilnius, 22-23 November 2006
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN REGIONS OF
EUROPE IN 2004
1
9
TWh
390
TWh
Russia
930 TWh
IE
Baltic IPS
25 TWh
UK
420
TWh
510
TWh
480
TWh
Iberia
280 TWh
UCTE
320
TWh
Centrel
260 TWh
2
THE STRUCTURE OF POWER SECTOR
IN LITHUANIA
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
PRODUCTION:
3 production companies
3 CHPs owned by district heating companies
Few private mini HPP
Few industrial power plants
DISTRIBUTION:
Three distribution companies (one private)
TRANSMISSON:
One Transmission System Operator company – Lietuvos Energija AB
ASSETS AND INCOME OF BALTIC POWER COMPANIES
(€ m), 2005
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Lietuvos
energija
Latvenergo
Assets
Eesti
Energia
Income
3
4
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, TWh
30
25
20
Production
Consumption
15
10
5
0
1991
1995
1999
2003
2005
5
ANNUAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND GROWTH RATE (%)
IN LITHUANIA
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 IX
6
THE CLOSURE OF IGNALINA NPP
•
The EU has made the early closure of Ignalina NPP
a precondition for Lithuanian- EU membership
•
Unit I was shut down on December 31, 2004
•
The closure of Unit II is scheduled in 2009
•
Ignalina NPP can be substituted by Lithuanian PP, but
this power plant has to be upgraded to meet environmental
requirements
•
Ignalina NPP is a dominant producer and its closure will place
the power system and the market in a completely new situation
INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITIES AND
FORECAST IN LITHUANIA
Fuel
7
MW
2006
2010
2015
1300
-
-
2330
1500
2380
1500
2460
1500
380
180
160
110
1020
100
900
20
40
30
10
370
170
160
180
1030
100
900
30
220
200
20
370
170
160
260
1030
100
900
30
340
300
40
4690
3630
3830
Total without hydro and wind
3640
2400
2500
Daily demand
1880
2370
2750
Peak demand
2100
2450
2900
Nuclear: Ignalina
Thermal:
Lithuanian PP (condensing)
Vilnius CHP
Kaunas CHP
Mažeikiai CHP
Others
Hydro:
Kaunas HPP
Kruonis PSPP
Small scale HPP totally
Other renewables:
Wind
Others
Total generation
nuclear
Gas, HFO,
orimulsion
Gas, HFO
Gas, HFO
HFO
MAIN GENERATION FACILITIES IN THE BALTIC STATES
PLANTS
Tallinn
•
8
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
ESTONIA
ESTONIA
NARVA TPP
BALTIA TPP
TALLIN CHP
HPP
13%
1615
1090
190
2895
HAPP
2%
Thermal
(natural gas,
mazut)
14%
LATVIA
LATVIA
Riga
•
RIGA CHP-1
RIGA CHP-2
RIGA HPP
KEGUMS HPP
PLAVINAS HPP
142
390
402
263
870
2067
Nuclear
39%
HPP
13%
LITHUANIA
LITHUANIA
•Vilnius
KAUNAS HPP
100
IGNALINA NPP 1300
KAUNAS CHP
178
MAZEIKI CHP
194
VILNIUS CHP
384
LIETUVOS TPP 1800
KRUONIO PSP 900
4856
Dependance on energy produced from natural gas
Thermal
(oil shale)
32%
Thermal (oil
shale)
33%
Thermal (natural
gas, mazut)
54%
DEMAND FORECAST OF THE BALTIC STATES
BY 2025
50,0
45,0
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
TWh
Year
9
A NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
10
The Prime Ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia signed
Communiqué on 27th of February, 2006, where the following energy
cooperation objectives were stated:
•
To prepare a common energy strategy of the Baltic States by the end of
2006;
•
To cooperate fully on and support the construction of interconnections
between the Baltic and other EU counties;
•
To support the initiative to build a new nuclear power plant in Lithuania;
• To invite the state owned Baltic energy companies Lietuvos Energija,
Latvenergo and Eesti Energia as the participating parties, on equal terms
among them, to invest in the preparation and construction of the new
nuclear power plant in Lithuania.
11
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN EUROPE
12
MAIN PARTIES INVOLVED IN PREPARATION
OF THE FEASIBILITY STUDY
Governments of
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
Eesti
Energia
Latvenergo
Lietuvos
energija
Dresdner
Kleinwort (Financial)
FreshfieldsBruckhaus
Deringer (Legal)
Colenco (Technical)
Appointed Advisors
Project Sponsors
13
WORKING GROUPS OF THE FEASIBILITY STUDY
•
The Technical and Environmental Working Group, responsible
for conducting technical assessment of best available technologies
for the new nuclear plant, possible reactor size, and the potential
investment and operational costs of the facilities
•
The Financing Working Group, responsible for economic and
financial appraisal of the Project,
•
The Legal Working Group, responsible for structuring the Project
in the light of applicable legal, contractual, regulatory and EU law
requirements
•
The Transmission Working Group, responsible for investigating
the adequacy of the Baltic transmission system for ensuring power
flows from the new plant in Ignalina to power systems in all
countries involved and estimating the reserve capacity required
after construction of the new plant.
14
ANALYSIS WAS BASED ON INFORMATION
AVAILABLE TODAY ON:
•
available reactor technologies
•
current market environment for commodities (in particular oil
and gas)
•
legal and regulatory framework for nuclear generation
specifically in the Baltic region
•
applicable legal framework in Lithuania and the EU
•
technical status of the interconnected Baltic system
•
current and forecast financial standing and financial market
environment
15
BALANCE OF CAPACITY IN THE BALTIC STATES
9000
MW
8000
7000
430 MW
6000
2500 MW
4170 MW
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Load
540 MW in Estonia in 2012
Reliably available capacity
16
BALANCE OF CAPACITY IN THE BALTIC STATES
(optimistic scenario)
9000
17
MW
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
year
Load
2012 540 MW in Estonia
2015 400 MW in Latvia
2018 400 MW in Lithuania
Reliably available capacity
ELEVEN NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES WERE
ACCEPTED
Supplier
Technologies
Type
Size, MW
ABWR
BWR
1300
Hitachi (General Electric)
ESBWR
BWR
1535
General Electric
SWR-1000
BWR
1254
AREVA Nuclear Power
AP-1000
PWR
1090
Westinghouse
AP-600
PWR
600
Westinghouse
APWR
PWR
1500
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
EPR
PWR
1660
AREVA Nuclear Power
V-392
PWR
995
Atomstroyexport
V-448
PWR
1365
Atomstroyexport
ACR-1000
PHWR
1085
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited
EC-6
PHWR
700
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited
18
19
MAIN PARAMETERS
Capacity needed
800-1600 MW
Investments
2,5 – 4,0 billion €
Overnight capital cost
1300-2000 €/kW
Possible project completion
2015
INDICATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATION NEW ENTRY
COSTS FOR DIFFERENT FUELS
Source: Dresdner Kleinwort Equity Research
20
CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY
21
The main conclusion – It would be feasible to develop a new nuclear
power plant to replace Ignalina NPP
•
Lietuvos energija, Latvenergo and Eesti Energia undertaking jointly to
build a new nuclear power plant appears feasible from a technical,
electrical system, financial and legal perspective;
•
Likely cost advantage of nuclear reactor over alternative sources of new
generation;
•
Sufficient space at the Ignalina NPP site is available to accommodate the
new nuclear reactor units;
•
Availability of suitable reactors designs;
•
The nuclear fuel market is effectively a global market;
•
The current electrical system is capable of accommodating up 3000 MW
of nuclear capacity.
ALLOCATION OF NEW NUCLEAR UNIT
AT IGNALINA NPP
one reactor case
Aušinančio vandens išleidimo kanalas
Aušinančio vandens įleidimo kanalas
Turbina Turbina
Turbina
1 blokas
UJA
UJB
UKB
UQB
UBP
Turbina
2 blokas
Reaktorius
Reaktoriaus pastatas
Pagalbinių reaktoriaus sistemų pastatas
Vandens siurblių pastatas
Avarinių dyzelinių generatorių pastatas
UQA
UKA
UBA
UMA
Cirkuliacinio vandens siurblių pastatas
Pagalbinis reaktoriaus pastatas
Skirstomųjų įrenginių pastatas
Turbinų pastatas
22
ALLOCATION OF NEW NUCLEAR UNIT
AT IGNALINA NPP
Two reactors case
Aušinančiojo vandens išleidimo kanalas
Aušinančiojo vandens įleidimo kanalas
Turbina Turbina
Turbina
1 blokas
UJA
UJB
UKB
UQB
UBP
Turbina
2 blokas
Reaktorius
Reaktoriaus pastatas
Pagalbinių reaktoriaus sistemų pastatas
Vandens siurblių pastatas
Avarinių dyzelinių generatorių pastatas
UQA
UKA
UBA
UMA
Cirkuliacinio vandens siurblių pastatas
Pagalbinis reaktoriaus pastatas
Skirstomųjų įrenginių pastatas
Turbinų pastatas
23
NEW INTERCONNECTIONS
Expected future interconnections:
•
•
•
Estonia – Finland
Sweden – Lithuania
Poland – Lithuania
Main objectives and benefits:
•
•
Integration of the Baltic power systems into the EU IEM
Ensuring security of supply in the Baltic region
24
EXPECTED INTERCONNECTIONS OF
BALTIC TRANSMISSION GRID
25
NORDEL
Zviedrija
Sweden
Somija
Finland
ESTLINK
350 MW
11.2006
Norvēģija
Norway
Lithuania Sweden
1000 MW
Igaunija
Estonia
Latvija
Latvia
Dānija
UCTE/
UCTI/
CENTRAL Europe
Vācija
Germany
Integrated Baltic
and CIS energy
system
Krievija
Russia
Lietuva
Lithuania
Baltkrievija
Belorus
Polija
Poland
Lithuania –
Poland
Czech
Čehija
1000 MW
Ukraina
Ukraine
INTERCONNECTION ESTONIA – FINLAND
(ESTLINK)
•
Three Baltic power companies (Lietuvos Energija, Latvenergo and Eesti
Energia) and two Finish companies signed the Agreement on July 7, 2004;
•
Capacity of interconnection - 350 MW;
Total investment cost of ESTLINK – 106 million EUR:
– Debt – 84 million EUR (loan agreements signed on 29 04 2005 by NEL)
• 53 million EUR loan from Nordic Investment Bank
• 31 million EUR loan from AS SEB Eesti Uhispank
–
•
•
•
•
Share capital of NEL – 22 million EUR (paid in 29 04 2005)
39.9% AS Eesti Energia
25% State JSC Latvenergo
25% AB Lietuvos energija
10.1% Pohjolan Voima Oy and Helsingin Energia/City of Helsinki
subsidiary Finestlink Oy.
Projected commissioning of interconnection – December 4, 2006.
26
INTERCONNECTION LITHUANIA – SWEDEN
• Capacity - 750 -1000 MW
• Length – ~350 km
• Investments – ~ € 400 m
• Terms of Reference of the Feasibility Study are agreed
between AB Lietuvos energija and Svenska Kraftnät
• Feasibility Study will provide detailed technical and
economic analysis of the Interconnection
• Tender for Preparation of the Feasibility Study is
announced
27
INTERCONNECTION LITHUANIA- POLAND
28
• LT-PL interconnection project is listed in the European Commission
“Quick start” projects’ list and in the updated TEN Guidelines;
• €142.8m for interconnections for 2007-2013 are marked in the
programme of Ignalina NPP closure;
• The line route has been defined on the Lithuanian territory ;
• Lithuanian side is ready to start the implementation of the Project
immediately by establishing a project implementation company;
• Polish side is willing to continue with analysis;
• In 2006 Polish Government approved the Program on Electricity of
Poland where the top priority was given to new interconnection with
Germany, strengthening of Polish grid, rehabilitation of 750kV line
with Ukraine. Only after that the Program contains the provision on
interconnection between Lithuania and Poland, on the condition that
the pay- back of the project and EU financial support will be
ensured.
INTERCONNECTION LITHUANIA – POLAND
Kaunas
29
LITHUANIA
KRUONIS
RUSSIA
Lietuvos PP
ALYTUS
GDANSK
B-to-B station
MÀTKI
BELORUSSIA
ELK
Olsztyn
Grodno
GRUDZIAZ
Ostrolęka
PLOCK
MILOSNA
MOSCISKA
POLAND
NAREW
Existing 330 or 400 kV substation
Existing power plant
Existing 330 or 400 kV line
Existing 220 kV line
Perspective 330-400 kV lines
INVESTMENTS IN INTERCONNECTION
LITHUANIA - POLAND
30
According IPA-EBRD study, year 2003:
Investments,.€ mln
Interconnection
304
Upgrading of power plants in the Baltic states
130
TOTAL
434
Financing:
Investments, € mln.
Grant
267
Commercial
167
TOTAL
434
The upgrading of the Baltic states power plants is presently implemented
by using financial sources not related to the project.
Remaining part of investments for LT- PL interconnection is 304 mln. €.
INVESTMENTS IN INTERCONNECTION
LITHUANIA - POLAND
(continued)
Unit
LT
territory
PL
territory
1000 MW back-to-back converter
31
€ mln.
105
400 kV line Alytus – state border (48 km)
20
330 kV line Kruonis – Alytus (double circuit, 53 km)
20
400 kV line state border – Elk (106 km)
43
400 kV line Elk – Narew (134 km) and Elk – Matki
(169 km)
89
Preliminary work to promote the project
TOTAL
27
304
Financing of the Project
International Ignalina NPP Decommissioning Fund (provisional)
144
Commercial part
160
TOTAL
304
32
ELECTRICITY SALES VOLUME IN EUROPE 2005 m. (TWh)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
EdF
E.ON
RWE
ENEL Vatten.
Baltic
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, kWh
EC forecast
33
NECESSARY INVESTMENTS
34
Project
A new nuclear power plant
Interconnections
A second nuclear power plant
Investments
2.5-4.0 € billion
700-1000 € million
?
35
CONCLUSIONS
•
The new nuclear power plant and new interconnections will
enhance security of energy supply in the region and will
reduce dependence on one supplier. Cooperation of private
and public funding is needed.
•
Interconnections Lithuania-Sweden and Lithuania-Poland will
create conditions to integrate Baltic electricity market to Nordic
and Central European markets and to be more efficient.
Cooperation of private and public investments is needed.
•
Development of cooperation of the Baltic power companies
facilitates security of electricity supply and affordable prices
36

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